INDIA-CHINA : THE WAY AHEAD

“For two countries that pride themselves on being ancient civilizations … these days China and India look like fumbling, nervous youngsters meeting on a first date. They often act like they don’t really understand the relevance they have for each other beyond narrow border issues, nor do they speak a common geopolitical language”

- An Article in the TIME Magazine

1. Confused definitely we are as to the biggest question today in front of us is:- “What is the way ahead for India in view of the strategic changes in Asia where China sits atop the power pyramid with its physical size, military capability and economic clout that combines to assert regional dominance?

2. Powers like India would not like to easily cede the hegemonic space to China but, at the same time, would realise that its power is pervasive and difficult to counter balance.

3. Today, both India and China jostle for the same strategic space and resources. A careful reappraisal of Asia’s emerging strategic dynamics, a hard-headed assessment of what India’s interests are and a considered approach to fulfilling these interests should deeply engage Indian policy makers as well as military leaders to lay the foundations of a more comprehensive, forward-looking and proactive Asia policy.

4. So, what is the way ahead-

Gentlemen, we have to analyse the Sino- Indian road ahead in two scenarios:-

(a) Scenario I- Where India and China coexist and flourish. Accordingly steps to empower each other while eliminating each other’s vulnerabilities and formulate a mutually symbiotic relationship in all spheres are required.

(b) Scenario-II: explores India and China in a conflict scenario. In this case, options available with India and the need for addressing own vulnerabilities while concurrently exploiting those of China need to be analysed.

Overall, India has to adopt a balanced strategy at the political, diplomatic, economic and military levels. All efforts must be concentrated and synergised towards attaining a strategic engagement of China in order to tame the Red Dragon while retaining our National Interests as supreme.

Political Engagement

4. India should build a long term political strategic vision to include a National resolve towards engaging China at International fora. An extensive China specific policy should be evolved and continuously reviewed. The policy should reflect strong political will in terms of responsiveness and effectiveness in the field of International relations. The new government needs to clearly insist on diplomatic reciprocal arrangements with China.

5. The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil pointed to promising signs in bilateral relations. Xi has invited Modi to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in China in November. Xi has already accepted an invitation from Modi to travel to India in September.

Diplomatic measures

1. China decides its diplomatic manoeuvres on an objective analysis of the balance of power. At present, China sees India with a huge differential of power and national power-diplomatic, military, economic- and yet they remain concerned about whether they would be able to dominate the balance of power in Asia. In dealing with China, intelligently executed diplomatic manoeuvres are critical in addressing the issues arising out of a belligerent China.

2. Dealing with China really boils down to quietly but firmly standing up the pressure. Indian has to be confident that it can handle it and widen its diplomatic options. India has to watch out as to how the situation is evolving over a period of time, engage all relevant players but be under no illusion and not get hysterical. Some of the suggested diplomatic measures are as follow:-

(a) Play the US Card. For the first time, India is finding the US willing to cooperate in areas that were previously taboo. India must take advantage of this situation in order to contain the China-Pakistan nexus, which has always tried to prevent India from finding its rightful place on the global stage. India should broaden and deepen its political, military and economic relationship with the US while keeping its decision-making autonomy in strategic issues like long-range missile development and nuclear weapons intact .

(b) Maintain Nepal:  India should maintain an exclusive relationship with Nepal, especially after the formation of new government which is visibly pro Chinese. The recent successful visit by our PM and extending the 1 bn line credit is the rightful step in this regard.

(c) Keep the Tibet issue Alive:   For past four decades India has been providing shelter and market to Tibetan refugees. It has to keep the Tibet issue alive in the international arena to keep China engaged internally as well as maintain an effective passive buffer on her eastern borders.

(d) Good relations with Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh Myanmar, Afghanistan: It is important to maintain good relations with all of the neighbours for India. Although many of them have already fallen into China’s influence, it is still not too late. If India vigorously renews its relations with all these countries, China won’t be able to overtly use them against India. India should be quick to grab tenders, deals and development projects in these countries.

(e) Card of Mongolia:  Good relation with Mongolia will be necessary to setup bases and camps on the northern border of China to pressurise it from both the sides. India already enjoys good relations with Mongolia, but a little more effort is required to convert this relation into one of strategic importance.

(f) Card of Central Asia: Energy rich Central Asia is significant for the growth of the country. China has already sealed many deals with these countries, India should be more aggressive in stepping up its efforts to grab all possible opportunities in future apart from maintaining good relations with these countries.

(g) Card of Japan: China and Japan relations had always been bitter. India may like to use this card when it will be strong enough to prevent any aggressive move by China. In this case, either China will force India to close ties with Japan or will start a dialogue with India to sort out the issues which is in India’s interest.

(g) The Russian Factor: Soviet Union always preferred India over China in the past but Russian overtures towards China point to weaker diplomacy on our part. India has to learn from China in resolving the Border issues as well as moving ahead for cooperation in all possible areas with Russia.

(h) Good relations with Pakistan: This one is unlikely to happen in near future. China and Pakistan are friends because both consider India as enemy. If India steadily improves relations with Pakistan, China will not find Pakistan of much use.

(j) Recognise Taiwan. People of Taiwan like India and believe India has the potential to do something on international forum about China and Taiwan issue in the future. Recognising Taiwan will be a very aggressive move but we can keep this card handy for use in desperate situations.

(k) Look East Policy: India should lay more emphasis on the Look East policy and improve economic and defence relations with these countries to limit the influence of China.

Economic Engagement

A RAND Corporation Assessment clearly says-

“India and China command special attention, not just in Asia, but also in the global economy and in the G-20. They are the world’s two most populous countries. They have sustained the world’s highest annual GDP growth rates over the past decade. The two countries arguably have the greatest influence and leverage among the 10 emerging-market economies.”

1. This should remind us of the role the two countries will play in the unfolding of the 21st century.

2. The Chinese government openly said that the China-India relationship in the 21st century would be the most vibrant, the relationship with the biggest potential.

3. China overtook the United States to become India’s largest trading partner this year. The common pursuit of a common dream requires a peaceful coexistence and becoming a lot more pragmatic in finding ways to cooperate rather than just focus on the rivalry.

4. If the issue is economics, then one obstacle frequently cited by analysts is the perception that India’s trade deficit with China is too high. But experts argue that ultimately you cannot expect trade to be balanced with every country. India’s trade deficit with China was $31 billion in 2013, which constituted only 20 percent of India’s total trade deficit. So if India is concerned about its trade deficit, which it must be, the problem isn’t China. Moreover, the fundamental issue of trust and knowledge deficit between China and India must be overcome for economic relations to grow.

Settlement of Border Issues

1. The border issue, over which China and India fought a brief war in 1962, still erupts in occassional  border skirmishes, and is still an important issue to resolve -- especially for India.

2. A more efficient framework to settle the Border dispute with stringent timelines would open up further avenues of Sino Indian cooperation through peaceful means in a fair, reasonable, mutually acceptable and proactive manner.

3. At the Fortaleza meeting, PM Modi said negotiating an agreement on their border differences would set an example for the world on conflict resolution. His Chinese counterpart Xi, claimed that China and India are long-lasting strategic and cooperative partners, rather than rivals and as the two largest nations in the world, they could have more influence combined than they currently have separately. 

Military Capacity Building

1. As far as our mil capabilities are concerned, India should not be scared of China, but certainly we must be wary of them. India is a nuclear power and the Indian Army has gone a long way and thanks to the 1962 war, today Indian Army is a battle-hardened Army, PLA conversely won't be. If the government has the will, the Army will deliver.

2. China Centric Def Policy. Our key areas of concern are J&K and the North-East and both of them are mountainous terrains. We don't have to build a more mechanised force to combat Pakistan in the desert; we need to build mountain-strike force, build up requisite air capability and bring out very clearly what is our nuclear threshold. With a clearly laid out and pronounced China centric policy, we must build up our self-reliance and have the requisite military capability. We have the will, we have the best fighting personnel in the entire world. If our political hierarchy has and demonstrates the will, Indian Armed Forces are fully capable will delivering.

3. Capacity Build Up. Looking at the manner the force would be applied, it is very unlikely that China will repeat 1962. The White Paper of 2004 and 2008, both talk of air dominance, maritime dominance and causing strategic paralysis.

In that asymmetric war, India has to be very concerned. There is a huge capacity build-up in cyber warfare. China has invested heavily in this single aspect and India too has realised the same, though a little late as usual. In offensive capacity, China is a little ahead of India. In space, in rocket forces, improved nuclear capabilities, these are the areas they are concentrating on.

India needs to be a little more circumspect in evaluating what they can and what they will really do!!!! It's far more they will achieve by strategic effect even if it is temporary through other means. Analysts agree that most likely attack will be a cyber attack on India which would cripple Indian government computers across the length and breadth of India for example, they have tried and disabled the NIC computers in India, they have hacked into MEA computers.

4. Infrastructure Development. There has to be a strong resolve and concerted effort to bring up the critical infrastructure in terms of roads, rails and airfields along our Eastern borders. There should be adequate redundancy in terms of axes and laterals.

5. Missile Defence System. To counter China as well as to enhance our strategic reach, the development of strategic missiles, effective Missile Defence system and LASER/ Space weapon/ DEW needs to be stepped up aggressively.

6. Enhancement of ANC Capabilties. In terms of both troops and equipment, there is a definite case in the point that the present capabilities of ANC need to be stepped up immediately.

7. Naval and Air Power Projection . To protect the SLOCs as well to pose a credible counter to the mighty ambitions of China, India should start asserting more on its Blue Water Navy and Air. Capabilities on both the dimensions need to be enhanced at a rate greater than that of China itself.

Gentlemen, the Chinese threat is real and it is multi-dimensional. If India aspires to emerge as a regional power and secure its national interests vigorously, it has to tread a fine balance between engaging a belligerent aspiring superpower effectively as well as addressing our own vulnerabilities. Can India do this ropewalk successfully.... Only time can tell.......