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China Forecast Copyright 2013

China Forecast 10 Year Forecast 2012 – 2022

Derek T. Seipp

This forecast considers the P.R.C. at the national level. It analyzes the future operating environment for national and international Christian organizations. The purpose of this forecast is to facilitate dialogue into understanding how the future environment of China will be different than today. Such dialogue should precede strategic planning efforts. This forecast should stimulate questions. For instance: How will these conditions affect access into China? How will these conditions affect countryside churches? What knowledge and skills will be required for various ministries? What para-church ministries need to be developed? Having a mature church, what will be China’s role in global Christianity? How can we make room in the global dialogue for a mature Chinese church? Etc.


Contents DEFINITION ............................................................................................................................................ 2 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................ 2

CURRENT ASSESSMENT ...................................................................................................................... 3 -- Current Conditions .............................................................................................................................. 3 -- Stakeholders ........................................................................................................................................ 4 -- Era Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 4

BASELINE FORECAST ............................................................................................................................ 6

-- Constants ............................................................................................................................................. 6

-- Cycles .................................................................................................................................................. 6

-- Trends .................................................................................................................................................. 6 -- Plans .................................................................................................................................................... 7 -- Projections ........................................................................................................................................... 8 -- Basic Forecast ................................................................................................................................... 10

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES .................................................................................................................... 10 -- Trend Reversals (Things growing on the fringe) .............................................................................. 10

-- Unfulfilled plans ................................................................................................................................ 10 -- Wild Cards......................................................................................................................................... 10 -- Issues/Choices ................................................................................................................................... 11

-- Key Uncertainties .............................................................................................................................. 11 -- Wildcard Impact Probability analysis. ............................................................................................. 11

-- Existing Scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 12 --Composite Scenarios .......................................................................................................................... 13

INFORMATION SOURCES.................................................................................................................... 15 -- Expert ................................................................................................................................................ 15 -- Texts .................................................................................................................................................. 15

-- Articles .............................................................................................................................................. 15 -- Organizations .................................................................................................................................... 17

-- Websites ............................................................................................................................................ 17 -- Reviewers ........................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.


DEFINITION

People’s Republic of China (P.R.C.), 10 Year Forecast

This forecast considers the P.R.C. at the national level, examining major forces of change,

stakeholders and their values, trend, events and issues, as well as uncertainties, emerging issues,

drivers of change, and potential wild cards.

This forecast is analyzes the future operating environment that Christian organizations, both

national and international, face over the next ten years.

SUMMARY

China is on track to become the world’s number one economy. It will achieve this by focusing

on “good enough quality” products and but will shift increasingly to homegrown innovation.

The majority of the baseline forecasts produced call for China to continue to grow at a pace of

7% annually over the next 10 years. Within this timeframe, it is expected China will turn from

copying to innovation and from investment to consumption. Foreign enterprises will experience

turbulence as China seeks to stabilize internal domestic industries. “Chinese characteristics” and

Confucian values will continue to fuel growth and cement societal harmony while constraining

leadership models and the breadth of Chinese influence. Foreign visas are forecasted to be

increasingly constrained to specific types of jobs.

Significant issues exist: migrants increasingly demand better working conditions, the middle

class demand basic rights, students demand better opportunities, the wealthy demand permanent

property ownership. Meanwhile materialistic excess is growing especially among government

cadres. Discontent regarding government repression is growing. The CCP is increasingly

fractured, there is mounting government debt, backlashes over WTO, and growing East Asian

rivalry.

Wildcards include war in the South China Sea, forceful reunification with Taiwan, breakaway

coastal provinces.

Discontent is projected to grow steadily among the working class. People will increasingly voice

their personal ideological and religious freedom. Within this, Christianity sits poised with a

potential for Revival 2.0.


CURRENT ASSESSMENT

-- Current Conditions

1.4 Billion people

World’s second largest economy experiencing 9-11% growth over two decades,

providing a tremendous amount of momentum. Policies have arguably created the

greatest poverty reduction plan in history, pulling more than 600 million out of poverty.

Economic growth ensures continued political stability.

A single party (Communist) republic. The party is atheistic by definition, maintaining

control over the army, police, legislature, judicial system, etc.. The party is popularly

seen as a benevolent big brother; “Who else could effectively rule 1.3 billion people?”

Increasing influence on the world’s stage.

Most Chinese desire democracy, but are willing to wait, sacrificing freedoms in exchange

for national stability. Most believe sudden change would return China to chaos and

warlords. Desire for harmony cannot be understated; and is a significant indicator for

any forecast. People can “eat bitterness” as long as they have a house and rice to eat.

Rapidly expanding middle class with an appetite for “ocean” goods: anything imported

from the West. Access to IT is expanding rapidly: 500 million internet users; 250 Million

micro-bloggers; 1.1 Billion cell users. Cheap smartphones bring: inexpensive broadband

to the interior; most popular method for internet use; popular book reading platform.

Housing prices increasingly out of reach for the average citizen but the average

homeowner owns three apartments.

People openly demanding the “rule of law.”

It is believed 90% of central government officials have sent their fortunes and families

overseas, while purchasing foreign greencards as an “insurance policy.”

High inflation is a significant concern to lower and middle classes. Food scandals seem

to appear daily.

Christians stand at 10% of the population but this is concentrated among certain internal

provinces and coastal regions. House churches are reaching highest stages of maturity

while creating their own para-church organizations, creating national dialogues via

conferences and internet sites, publishing their own books, etc. The three streams of

churches (Government, Countryside unregistered, City unregistered) now stand steadily

on their own feet.


-- Stakeholders

Government Defined Stakeholders: “Three Represents.”

o Workers, Peasants, Entrepreneurs.

The Communist party

o Control

o Stability

o State Owned Industry income

Workers

o Children’s education

o Yearly wage improvement

o Property ownership

Entrepreneurs

o Overseas Education for Children

o Luxury Goods

o Multiple Homes / Cars

o Foreign Passport

Church (Religion)

o Countryside Elders – Want a foothold in the cities.

o City Unregistered Churches – Want Property / Legitimacy

o Government Churches – Want Increasing Expansion

-- Era Analysis

1949-1976 “Mao”

o Birth pains of China. Hard labor with class struggle, overthrowing tradition, folk

religion, landowners, factory owners, etc. People melt down pots making useless

steel in their back yard. China loses its only friend: the USSR. Famine starves up

to 100 million.

Transition Point --- 1976 Tiananmen Incident:

o Mao & Zhou Enlai die. Gang of Four kill Zhou mourners in Tiananmen Square.

1976-1989 “Opening up”

o A softer path. “To get rich is glorious - some will have to get rich faster than

others.” Government punishes the Gang of Four. Life gets better for most.

Christianity explodes as people seek peace from previous unrest.

Transition Point - 1989


o Chaos slows reform. Foreign Affairs magazine declares: people exchange a

desire for freedom with rampant materialism.

1989-2002, “Materialistic Growth”

o Freedom expressed through materialism. China becomes the world’s factory and

capitalism takes root. Key writers lament loss of morality. Anything contributing

to economic growth benefits the country. Bribed officials are hanged, but those

making bribes go free.

Turning Point 2002 – The Three Represents

o Jiang Zemin lets entrepreneurs and landowners back into the party.

2002-2011, “Excess”

o Markets grow faster than government’s ability to regulate. Food scandals grow to

obscene levels. Greed is evident in all sectors, especially in housing.

Government brings back Confucianism in an attempt to reign in excess.

o Countryside churches experience increasing corruption among top elders. City

churches mature, with significant leaders in most cities. Government churches

begin own church planting initiatives.

Turning Point 2002 – Speed Train Crash of 2011

o WeiBo exposes significant cover-ups forcing greater transparency.

2012 – “ WeiBo & Slower Economic Growth”

o Micro blogging yields new freedoms of speech. Government finds itself reactive

to scandals. Exposure of the murder of a British entrepreneur forces the downfall

of a top official. Beijing tries to exploit blogging for its own means. Economic

growth cools. Corruption seems worse than before 1949.

o Chinese Churches start para-church ministries targeting minority peoples.

Government churches expand theological education, and try to influence the

political elite to bring more freedoms. Many countryside churches face

‘survivability’ challenges as their people move to cities.


BASELINE FORECAST

-- Constants

Everyone desires stability.

Chinese Communist Party control.

Foreign investment continues.

Environmental degradation.

Growing influence in Africa; Middle East; destabilizing western interests

Growing influence over US policy through owning US Debt.

Eating bitterness for economic gain.

Excessive nationalistic pride.

Strong work ethic.

Confucianism influence reinforcing centralized leadership in all sectors.

Strong openness to Christianity.

Cities becoming highly educated, countryside education remains poor

-- Cycles

10 year political cycle Xi Jinping rules from 2012 till 2022.

Belief that China experiences revolution every 60 years. 1949-2009.

Chinese belief in “meiyou banfa” – average citizens are powerless.

12 yr. “self-fulfilling prophesies” from Chinese Zodiac for prosperity and catastrophe.

-- Trends

More demand for oil, coal, gas -- 150% increase in energy needs by 2020 (IAGS).

More children sent abroad for education.

More wealthy individuals purchasing green cards.

More access to technology and information.

More infrastructure – high speed trains, highways, airports.

More Chinese Investment in other countries - 400 Billion by 2020.

More protests – increasing 20% - 30% per year.

More pollution – doubling by 2020 to become world’s biggest polluter (Toronto Star).

More old Chinese - unsustainable population.

More churches –registered and unregistered.

More Urbanization.

More government debt.


More materialism.

More mature, internationally minded, city churches.

More divorce.

More need for creativity skills.

More need for advanced analytical skills.

More constrictions on foreign visas.

Stronger military – potentially driving innovation.

Less expendable income (inflation).

Less breakneck economic growth.

Less food safety.

Less clean water available for the massive cities being built.

Less competitive advantage – higher wages.

Less access to visas for foreigners - protecting local jobs.

-- Plans

CCP:

o Attract foreign investment: agriculture, high-tech, & environment.

o Move Factories to the interior.

o Build Highways 83,000 km / railways: 45,000 km.

o Build 36 million low-income apartments.

o Modernize Army.

o Become financial capital of Asia.

o Create UN based coalition with other totalitarian governments.

Foreign Corporations:

o Invest more in China.

o Capture a piece of the Chinese market.

National Corporations:

o Capture market-share, then gain government protection (kill innovation?).

o Desire to become first Chinese top world-wide brand.

Christianity:

o Legal legitimacy with peaceful disobedience to oppression

o Reach the elite (business / officials)

o Improved theological training

o Back To Jerusalem: Take the Gospel West to minorities and Muslim countries


-- Projections

Failed States Index: (compiled from 6 years of reports)

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2005 75 6.8 5 7.4 6 9 0.5 8.6 2.9 8.9 7 8.4 1.8 72.3 2006 57 8.5 5.1 8 6.6 9.2 4.5 8.5 7.3 9 5.5 8 2.3 82.5 2007 62 8.7 5.1 8 6.5 9 4 8.5 6.5 9 5.3 7.5 3.1 81.2 2008 68 8.8 5.1 7.8 6.3 9 4 8.3 6.6 8.9 5.2 7 3.3 80.3 2009 57 9 6.8 7.9 6.1 9.2 4.5 8.5 7.2 8.9 6 7.2 3.3 84.6 2010 68 8.8 5.1 7.8 6.3 9 4 8.3 6.6 8.9 5.2 7 3.3 80.3 2011 72 8.2 6.2 7.9 5.6 8.6 4.4 7.9 6.6 8.8 5.7 6.9 3.3 80.1 2012 76 7.9 5.9 7.9 5.3 8.3 3.9 7.9 6.3 8.6 6.0 6.9 3.5 78.3

--- www.foreignpolicy.com Pew Research:

--- www.pewglobal.org


Maplecroft Political Risk:

--- www.maplecroft.com

Berkeley Lab: Energy consumption and GDP

--- www.lbl.gov

http://www.maplecroft.com/


-- Projections (Cont’d) Failed States Index: Stable for 6 years stability likely continues.

Forbes: China becomes world’s largest economy by 2020.

Morgan Stanley: 2020 is the “golden age” of the Chinese consumer.

Morgan Stanley: 8% growth through 2020, only 10% chance of deceleration.

Harvard Belfer Center: CO2 emissions growing faster than predicted, seeks Kyoto

intervention by 2020.

-- Basic Forecast

China grows in dominance but experiences a few road bumps along the way. CCP grants

concessions with property rights and ends one child policy for continued legitimacy.

Technology increases freedoms while exposing abuse. The government will try to put

the WeiBo cat back in the preverbal bag. Environmental issues grow. Fringe groups

emerge: gay rights, etc. If growth stops, all bets are off. Stabilized instability likely

points to continued openness to the Christian message.

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Although the baseline forecast is our single best estimated “probable” future, it is still more likely another future will emerge shaped by any combination of the following factors. Attention should be given to the following in order to determine what specific future will emerge.

-- Trend Reversals (Things growing on the fringe)

Emerging shift to innovation as a low frills “acceptable” quality producer, successfully

competing with foreign brands which overshoot customer needs.

International companies moving OUT of China - Home Depot, Best Buy, Google.

Technology (WeiBo) unbalancing CCP hardliners & reformists.

Peasants demanding higher wages and better conditions.

Sudden decrease in billionaires in 2012–a new trend?

Westerners turning from awe to resentment - failure to implement WTO requirements.

Discretionary income suddenly decreasing-a new trend?

-- Unfulfilled plans

Food price stability, low housing prices.

Reigning in bank lending.

Curbing social discontent in Muslim and Tibetan minority areas.

-- Wild Cards


Regions declare independence.

China outgrows world Oil production capacity.

Shanghai / Guangzhou shut their borders: “HongKong” style super-economic zone.

Multiple Regional Environmental Collapses.

Internal Communist Party Fracture.

Yuan Collapses under Government Debt

Nuclear Power Disaster leaves citizens without electricity.

Senior party official openly declares self to be Christian; demands Christians allowed in

the party.

Western economies implode killing exports.

South China Sea Conflict.

-- Issues/Choices

Should China allow religious freedom to quell moral collapse?

Should the Government shut down WeiBo?

Should the rule of law be enacted - risking loss of some government controls?

Should the housing bubble continue in order to support key industries?

-- Key Uncertainties

Can Chinese companies meet demands from foreign investors?

Can the Government morph itself into something that can survive?

Will China become the “Innovation” or “Good Enough Quality” economy?

Will unrest reach critical levels?

Will China’s rich / political elite defect?

Will WeiBo expose the ultimate government crisis?

Will the Church come out of its doors and into the open – to truly impact society?

-- Wildcard Impact Probability analysis.

Impact probability analysis looks at low probability issues that could emerge with high impact on

society. Probabilities are estimated; functioning as a starting point for further dialogue, or analysis into

potentially emerging alternative futures from the baseline.


Impact Uncertainty Description Impact Probability Chinese Consumer Chinese Consumers run out of expendable income 0.6 0.175

Christian Party Official Top Party Leader declares faith 0.5 0.15

Costal Breakaway Shainghai / Guangzhou / HongKong Declare Independence 0.99 0.05

Domestic Terrorism Muslims/Tibetans systematically plot internal terror 0.25 0.225

Ecological collapse China Experiences Ecological Collapse 0.6 0.25

Energy War China forced to fight to gain access to resources 0.9 0.25

Food Crisis 2.0 Large number of kids die from food crisis 2.0 0.3 0.3

Food Riot Chinese Riot due to unsafe food 0.2 0.32

Government Debt Regional Government Debt cripples covernment 0.8 0.28

Independence West declares independence 0.55 0.05

Innovation Economy Becomes Leading Innovation Economy 0.99 0.19

IP Dominance China achieves Intellectual Property Dominance 0.85 0.2

Migrants Mass revolt over wages/conditions 0.8 0.175

Nuclear Disaster China experiences nuclear disaster 0.7 0.05

Oil Tops $300 Oil Spikes, driving off industry 0.6 0.225

Party Fracture Ideological Fracture 0.8 0.25

Protest Tiger Japan Protests spill over into Beijing protests 0.88 0.3

Recognized Christianity House Churches given freedom 0.3 0.25

Revival 2.0 Chinese Church (TSPM & HC) experience Revival 2.0 0.5 0.3

Severe Drought Severe Drought from Global Warming 0.2 0.15

South China Sea Conflict Unrest in South China Sea 0.8 0.125

Students Revolt Students demand reform, declare selves "slaves" 0.7 0.1

West Retreats Western companies retreat from china due to unfair practices 0.7 0.15

Uncompetitive Labor Chinese lose competitive advantage 0.5 0.35

Weibo Exposes scandal at top of govt eschelons 0.7 0.3

Western Collapse America or Europe experiences economic implosion 0.9 0.15

WTO Backlash Western Countries Force WTO Comliance or leave 0.4 0.3

Yuan Collapses Yuan Collapses under economic distress 0.5 0.2

-- Existing Scenarios


The Japan Scenario: China falters for 10 years, experiences deep internal turmoil, but

people suffer knowing the alternative would be chaos, plunging the country back into a

warring states period of the early 1900’s.

According to the Economist there are two Monetary Policy Scenarios. The first sees

inflation growing as a result of pushing output beyond capability. Banks continue to

outstrip capacity generating growth with increased long term pain (inflation and social

unrest. The “null scenario” reduces lending for short term discomfort with long term

stability.

Historical Scenario 1: Seagrave, S. 1995 – Overseas Chinese controlling the economies

of GuangZhou, Shanghai and HongKong create a rift between coastal areas and poorer

interior. Coastal cities ultimately separate from rural China.

Historical Scenario 2: Chang, G. 2001, 2010 forecasts that China will collapse due to

the ineffectiveness of state run enterprises. Correlation with Josephson, M. (1962) The

Robber Barons which forecasts free enterprise always conquers state owned enterprises.

--Composite Scenarios

-- Scenario 1: Innovation in the Economy of “Good Enough” China opens several innovation centers attracting top world talent. China experiences

stability with continued growth implementing the rule of Law. China dominates several

traditionally western industries. Majority of growth comes from Africa, which America

and Europe overshoot consumers. Chinese captures the “good enough quality” consumer

of the 2/3’s world. China’s influence and need for natural resources destabilizes western

interests in the Middle East and Africa. Morality declines steeply. Pollution stagnates

growth first tier Chinese cities. Materialism drives national stability.

-- Scenario 1: Leading Indicators

o International growth of state-run industries.

o China creates innovation centers in universities.

o China starts recruiting drive drawing innovators with high incentives.

o China purchases innovative corporations, shifting operations to China

o China develops African infrastructure.

o Africa becomes leading importer from China.


-- Scenario 2: Pay the Piper – My Yang for Your Yin. The economic strings China pulls - break under the strain. China enters a period of

stagnation and decline as multiple asset bubbles burst. Social unrest spills over due to

insanely rich officials, crumbling (but newly built) infrastructure, food safety, etc.

Multiple “new” cities are unsustainable due to a lack of clean water. Residents flee

Beijing because of desertification and pending environmental collapse. Shanghai and

Guangzhou declare their financial independence from an environmentally and ethically

bankrupt Beijing.


o Daily WeiBo posts of excess, misuse of government funds, officials and their

excesses

o Inability to keep up with massive water needs for emerging cities.

o Rapid decline in housing prices as well as raw materials (ore, copper, etc).

o Rapid increase in frequency of sandstorms in Beijing.

-- Scenario 3: Rats Jumping Ship. Key government officials follow their wives and children overseas. The party splinters

over fractions vying for control. Governance is increasingly erratic and unpredictable.

Open protests are held in Tiananmen. Foreign firms flee seeking more stable

environments. Chaos ensues.


o Cronies secure green-cards and send wives overseas.

o WeiBo exposure of government crimes becomes uncontainable for CCP.

o Incongruence in central governance; public, rapid, incompatible directives.

-- Scenario 4: Riding a Protest Tiger, it’s hard to get off… China rides the protest tiger diverting public attention away from internal problems.

People, accustomed to protesting DiaoYu, Philippines, etc., let their discontent spill into

open chaos. Excess nationalism keeps China from splintering apart. Beijing allows

minor concessions including an end to the one child policy and permanent property

ownership with land-owner’s rights. A cat and mouse game results. Beijing eventually

concedes an independent court (with Chinese characteristics), independent press (with

Chinese characteristics) and the rule of law (again, with Chinese characteristics). Foreign

firms diversify throughout Asia protecting their own assets – Chinese corporations do the

same. Christianity skyrockets.



o Weibo like app used for “Flash Protests”

o Open protests against Beijing

o Beijing concedes previously untouchable policies (but declares it always planned

to do so anyway).

INFORMATION SOURCES

-- Expert

Brent Fulton, China Source

-- Texts

Rein, S. (2012) The End of Cheap China: Economic and Cultural Trends that Will Disrupt the World

P. Navarry & G. Autry (2011) Death by China: Confronting the Dragon - A Global Call to Action

Kiernan, P. (2012) Becoming China's Bitch: And Nine More Catastrophes We Must Avoid Right Now

Seagrave, S. (1995). Lords of the Rim: The Invisible Empire of the Overseas Chinese

Chang, G. (2001, 2010). The Coming Collapse of China.

Aikman, D. (2003) Jesus In Beijing.

Josephson, M. (1962) The Robber Barons

-- Articles

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/perspectives/China_Economy_2020.pdf http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/05/26/by-2020-china-no-1-us-no-2/ https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/Can_Chinese_companies_live_up_to_investo

r_expectations_2808 https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/What_Chinas_five-

year_plan_means_for_business_2832 https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/Meet_the_Chinese_consumer_of_2020_2941

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/02/5_myths_about_the_chinese_communist_party?page=full

http://beforeitsnews.com/international/2010/05/chinas-use-of-world-expo-tactical-and-peculiar-hong-kong-editor-says-44635.html

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18581/revised_emissions_growth_projections_for_china.html

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2010/03/19/results-profile-china-poverty-reduction

http://mashable.com/2012/01/17/china-500-million-web-users/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18900778

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/perspectives/China_Economy_2020.pdf

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2011/05/26/by-2020-china-no-1-us-no-2/

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/Can_Chinese_companies_live_up_to_investor_expectations_2808

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/Can_Chinese_companies_live_up_to_investor_expectations_2808

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/What_Chinas_five-year_plan_means_for_business_2832

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/What_Chinas_five-year_plan_means_for_business_2832

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/China/Meet_the_Chinese_consumer_of_2020_2941







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http://mashable.com/2012/01/17/china-500-million-web-users/

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-18900778


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Represents

http://www.china.org.cn/english/zhuanti/3represents/68683.htm


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19632036

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/china/local-news/beijing/2011/02/23/292195/Beijing-says.htm

http://www.theworld.org/2012/08/us-china-africa/

http://www.globaltimes.cn/opinion/editorial/2011-02/624291.html

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the-doomsayers/261783/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China

http://www.chessmen.biz/blog/2012/05/us-companies-leaving-china-to-move-back-to-the-usa/

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http://www.economist.com/topics/china

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=392&catid=10&subcatid=66

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http://www.china.org.cn/english/zhuanti/3represents/68683.htm



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-19632036



http://www.theworld.org/2012/08/us-china-africa/

http://www.globaltimes.cn/opinion/editorial/2011-02/624291.html

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2011/RAND_WR849.pdf









http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/chinas-long-history-of-defying-the-doomsayers/261783/

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/08/chinas-long-history-of-defying-the-doomsayers/261783/

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http://www.fpri.org/orbis/4802/dreyer.limitschinagrowth.pdf



http://shanghaiist.com/2011/09/09/top_50_of_hurun_rich_list_2011_anno.php

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/25109/1/wp040971.pdf





http://www.economist.com/topics/china

http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=392&catid=10&subcatid=66




http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1505&MainCatID=15&id=20121030000046

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/09/inflation?zid=306&ah=1b164dbd43b0cb27ba0d4c3b12a5e227

http://www.iags.org/china.htm

http://www.easteconomist.com/2012/09/asias-outgoing-fdi-will-reach-400-billion-by-2020/

http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/sabl/2005/September/03-China-report.html

-- Organizations

Chatam House: http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/186781

McKinsey: https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com

World Bank: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china

Rolandberger: http://www.rolandberger.us/featured/automotive/endofchinacycle.html

National Bureau of Asian Research

ZG Briefs

China Source: http://www.chsource.org/en/

-- Websites

http://www.usccb.net/

http://Shanghaiist.com

http://WSJ.com/chinarealtime/

http://ShapingTomorrow.com





http://www.iags.org/china.htm



http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/sabl/2005/September/03-China-report.html

http://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/papers/view/186781

https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/

http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china

http://www.rolandberger.us/featured/automotive/endofchinacycle.html

http://www.chsource.org/en/

http://www.usccb.net/conference/conference21/Paper_Heyndrickx16Jun05.pdf

http://shanghaiist.com/

http://wsj.com/chinarealtime/

http://shapingtomorrow.com/

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