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China in Africa and China in Latin America Professor Deborah Brautigam UNAM, Mexico City May 31, 2016

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Page 1: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

China in Africa and China in Latin America

Professor Deborah Brautigam

UNAM, Mexico City

May 31, 2016

Page 2: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

1984: Liberia

Page 3: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

1984: Liberia

Page 4: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
http://www.american.edu/faculty/brautigam/Chinese Aid page.htm
Page 5: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Change in Growth Rate, China-Africa Trade

0.59

0.35 0.39

0.33

0.45

-0.15

0.40

0.31

0.19

0.06 0.06

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Chinese exports to Africa Growth rateAfrican exports to China Growth rateTotal Trade Growth rate

Page 6: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Chinese FDI Flows to Africa, % of China’s Global FDI

Page 7: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Eight Differences 1. History 2. Geopolitics 3. Soft Power 4. Investment 5. Infrastructure 6. Finance 7. Migration 8. Agriculture

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1. HISTORY

Page 9: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

1st Wave

Page 10: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 11: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

East Wind Blows in Africa: 1950s & 1960s

Page 12: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

China in 1975

Page 13: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 14: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 15: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

2. GEOPOLITICS

Page 16: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 17: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 18: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.wheritage.net/taiwan_flag.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.wheritage.net/tiwannimosekaiisanwo.html&h=302&w=453&sz=8&hl=en&start=2&um=1&tbnid=19mTsmYPp8SGoM:&tbnh=85&tbnw=127&prev=/images?q=taiwan+flag&svnum=10&um=1&hl=en&newwindow=1&rls=com.microsoft:en-us
Page 19: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

FOCAC versus CELAC FORUM

•Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC): 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015

•CELAC Forum: 2015

Page 20: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

3. SOFT POWER and PUBLIC OPINION

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Table 2: Percent Favorable Opinion of China (2015)

Ghana 80 Chile 66

Ethiopia 75 Peru 60

Burkina Faso 75 Venezuela 58

Tanzania 74 Brazil 55

Senegal 70 Argentina 53

Nigeria 70 Mexico 47

Kenya 70

Chile 66

Uganda 65

South Africa 52

Average 70 Average 58

Source: Pew Research Center, 2015

Page 22: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 23: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 24: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

4. INVESTMENT

Page 25: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Chinese FDI Stock (%), Africa (2011)

Source: Xinhua, 2013 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-08/29/c_132673093_2.htm

Page 26: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Chinese Manufacturing Projects in Africa (total as of end 2014)*

Nigeria 123

Ethiopia 84

South Africa 82

Ghana 48

Tanzania 48

Angola 37

*approved by MOFCOM

Page 27: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

FAW Auto assembly, South Africa

Page 28: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Hisense, South Africa

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China Africa Overseas Tannery, Ethiopia

Page 30: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

George Shoes, Ethiopia

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Pittards Gloves, Ethiopia

Page 32: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Friendship Textile, TZ

Page 33: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

5. INFRASTRUCTURE

Page 34: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

$53.0

$13.2

$64.8

$7.2

$2.0 $2.2

Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania

Chinese Engineering Contract Turnover 2015 (US$ bn)

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Typical foreign engineers & experts housing in Africa

Chinese Western

Page 39: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Engineering Firms in Top 250

•Latin America: 4 (2 Brazil, 1 Chile, 1 Peru)

•Africa: 4 (all Egypt)

•China: 65

Source: Engineering News Record, 2016

Page 40: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

6. FINANCE

Page 41: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Who is Financing Chinese Contracts?

• World Bank and African Development Bank

• Bilateral Donors

• African Governments

• Private Businesses (Chinese and non-Chinese)

• Chinese Government (20-25%)

Page 42: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 43: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
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Who is Financing Chinese Contracts?

• World Bank and African Development Bank

• Bilateral Donors

• African Governments

• Private Businesses (Chinese and non-Chinese)

• Chinese Government (20-25%)

Page 45: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Source: SAIS China Africa Research Initiative

Page 46: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 47: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK & CHINA EXIMBANK COMPARED

LAC CDB: 37 Loans/LOC, $100.6 bn

Eximbank: 31 loans/LOC $24 bn

(2000-2015)

Africa CDB: 59 Loans/LOC, $13.9 bn

Eximbank: 453 loans/LOC $59.3 bn

(2000-2014)

Page 48: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

7. MIGRATION

Page 49: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 50: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 51: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
Page 52: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
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Chinese Workers Abroad, 2014

# %

Total 1005732

Asia 634584 63%

Africa 259385 26%

LAC 61538 6%

Europe 30457 3% Other 19768 2%

Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2015

Page 54: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract

Peer Reviewed Journal Articles, Abstracts (Proquest)

•China, Africa, Migration = 90

•China, Latin America, Migration = 10

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8. AGRICULTURE

Page 56: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
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Page 58: China in Africa and China in Latin America · Textile, TZ . 5. INFRASTRUCTURE . $53.0 $13.2 $64.8 $7.2 $2.0 $2.2 Africa LAC Asia Europe N. America Oceania Chinese Engineering Contract
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Agricultural Exports to China

•LAC -- 18% of total exports • soybeans & oilseeds

•Africa -- less than 2% •Cotton, tobacco, oilseeds, rubber, cocoa

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