china: input-output tables 1992-2010 - university...

China: Input-Output Tables 1992-2010

Douglas Nyhus

Inforum, University of Maryland

20th Inforum World Conference

Florence, Italy

Why?

• Data base for MUDAN model

• Check consistency of Chinese data

• Examine structural change

• Economic imbalances?

• Energy use

• CO2 generation

Inforum World Conference September 2012 2

Basic Data Sources

• Input-output tables: 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007

• China Statistical Yearbook (CSY): 1992-2011

• CSY data in electronic format from 1995-2011

• China Labor Statistics Yearbook: 2001-2010

• China Economic Census Statistics 2004, 1995

• Bilateral Trade model data base

• National Bureau of Statistics of China (monthly data)


Major Problem Areas

• Changes in Statistical System: NMP (1992) to SNA(1997,2002,2007)

• Revisions in statistical coding 1995,2004,2007

• Major changes in scale—GDP revised up 10% in 2009 without revisions in production data

• Tables (CSY) appear and disappear

• Labor (employment) data weak

• Factor income data at national level is nonexistent


Major Strengths

• Historical tables relatively consistent

• Gradually improving data base – especially for services

• Agriculture and Industry data (Mining, Manufacturing and Utilities) are consistent enough over time to be useable

• Expanding detail from the national accounts


Plan I

• Balance tables in current prices

• Balance full four quadrant IO tables at one time—intermediate (59) sectors, final demands and value added (wages, depreciation, taxes less subsidies, surplus)

• Use at much data as can be gleaned from the CSY and other data sources—methods vary greatly due to coverage, general appropriateness, etc.


Plan II

• For each cell in the large matrix attempt to construct a consistent time series between IO table years—e.g. 1992-1997, 1997-2002, etc

• Then “benchmark” the end points based on the IO table and generate a “fix” file for starting points for the intervening years

• This is applied for all gross output of all sectors


Plan III

• Balance backwards and forwards—starting points are important—e.g. balance 1992-96 going forward and the balance 1997-93 going backwards – Remember interdyme can operate backwards as well as forwards in time.

• Use estimates from both of the estimates as a starting point for final balance


Plan IV

• After balancing table we then balance bridge matrices for investment –52 investing industries (columns) and 59 rows

• Similar household consumption matrices—urban (59 rows, 24 columns), rural (59 rows,10 columns)


Plan V

• Deflate the table to obtain constant price estimates

• “Known” prices: (1) gross output; (2) import prices (3) export prices (4) rural consumption prices and (5) urban consumption prices

• Implicit prices for each row of the table are implied—(1) domestically produced goods for particular uses are necessarily different from production prices—e.g. Urban and rural households; (2) user prices (mixture of domestic and import prices).

• “User” prices are used for deflation


Plan VI

• Check estimate of deflated GDP with NA

• How different? Why?

• Estimate service industry output prices– value added prices are the only ones published and these only implicitly

• Assume the implicitly published prices are constructed using a double deflation method


Plan VII

• Estimate new service industry “output” prices that are consistent with “deflated” valued added and the in the IO Table

• Use the resulting matrices as the basis for estimating MUDAN

• Reconcile 2002 estimates for GDP with National Accounts


Strengths of Plan

• Internal consistency

• Ability to examine any series as a time series and not just a point estimate

• Ease of updating – documentation –all preparation work is done starting with excel tables in the CSY followed by G7 add files (scripts) preparing the work for interdyme which integrates and completes the work.


Weaknesses

• Estimates of GDP in 2002 prices not consistent with National Accounts

• Only total household consumption (rural and urban) is available in constant price units on product side national accounts

• Some estimates of the implied prices of domestic production for domestic consumption are not reasonable—indicating a defect in data or method


Some Results



Real GDP Real GDP VAD pr i ces vs " Out put " pr i ces

330790

189473

48156

1995 2000 2005 2010

gdpR vadgdpR

Industry and VAD Price GDP

CSY GDP


GDP and Component s GDP and Component s 2002 = 1.

3. 53

1. 90

0. 27

1995 2000 2005 2010

l oggdpR l ogcr Rsum l ogcuRsum l ogi f aRsum l ogexRsum l ogi mRsum

Note: Log scale

Rural HH

Exports

GDP

Imports

Inv


Def l at or s Def l at or s 2002 = 1.

1. 56

1. 02

0. 48

1995 2000 2005 2010

gdpD cr D cuD i f aD exD i mD

GDP

Investment

Rural HH

Urban HH

Exp&Imp


1 Far mi ng 1 Far mi ng i n 2002 pr i ces

46975. 63

23537. 32

99. 01

1995 2000 2005 2010

l out 1 l ddem l ex1 l i m1 l hhc l ddemgdp

Note: Log Scale GDP = dom dem in 2002

Output & Domestic dem

Households

Imports

Exports

Missing Or wrong data


39 El ect r oni c and communi cat i on equi pment 39 El ect r oni c and communi cat i on equi pment i n 2002 pr i ces

68392. 83

34400. 55

408. 27

1995 2000 2005 2010

l out 39 l ddem l ex39 l i m39 l hhc l ddemgdp

Output

households

Imports

Exports

GDP


56 Heal t h car e, spor t s and soci al wel f ar e 56 Heal t h car e, spor t s and soci al wel f ar e pr i ces of out put , expor t s, i mpor t s, domest i c use

2. 28

1. 30

0. 33

1995 2000 2005 2010

pr i ces56 pr i ceexp56 pr i cei mp56 pr i cecu56 pr i cecr 56 gdpD

Output

GDP

Urban HH

Rural HH

PRICES


39 El ect r oni c and communi cat i on equi pment 39 El ect r oni c and communi cat i on equi pment pr i ces of out put , expor t s, i mpor t s, domest i c use

1. 45

1. 01

0. 56

1995 2000 2005 2010

pr i ces39 pr i ceexp39 pr i cei mp39 pr i cecu39 pr i cecr 39 gdpD

GDP

Rural HH

Urban HH

Output

Exp&Imp

Thank You!


china: input-output tables 1992-2010 - university...

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