CHINA:CHINA:RISING SCIENTIFIC RISING SCIENTIFIC

SUPERPOWER?SUPERPOWER?

Richard P. Suttmeier, Richard P. Suttmeier,

University of OregonUniversity of Oregon

petesutt@uoregon.edupetesutt@uoregon.edu

THE LONG CLIMBTHE LONG CLIMB

1919THTH CENTURY HUMILIATIONS CENTURY HUMILIATIONSTHE 20THE 20THTH CENTURY QUEST CENTURY QUEST MODERNIZATION: SCIENCE, WEALTH AND MODERNIZATION: SCIENCE, WEALTH AND

NATIONAL POWERNATIONAL POWER THE FRUSTRATIONS OF WAR AND POLITICSTHE FRUSTRATIONS OF WAR AND POLITICS

1980-2007 “THE BEST OF TIMES”1980-2007 “THE BEST OF TIMES” STABILITYSTABILITY ECONOMIC GROWTHECONOMIC GROWTH REFORMREFORM INTERNATIONAL EXPOSUREINTERNATIONAL EXPOSURE

ELITE COMMITMENTELITE COMMITMENT

WHAT IS A SUPERPOWER?WHAT IS A SUPERPOWER?

STATISTICAL INDICATORSSTATISTICAL INDICATORSQUALITY MEASURES – NOBELs?QUALITY MEASURES – NOBELs?COMPLEX PROJECTSCOMPLEX PROJECTSCOMPREHENSIVE CAPABILITIESCOMPREHENSIVE CAPABILITIES““VERTICAL” DEPTHVERTICAL” DEPTHROLE OF PROFESSIONAL ROLE OF PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATIOSORGANIZATIOSMAGNETISM – STUDENTS, “STARS”MAGNETISM – STUDENTS, “STARS”

THE EXPENDITURE STORYTHE EXPENDITURE STORY

RAPID RISE IN GERD (22 % IN 2006; 20%+ RAPID RISE IN GERD (22 % IN 2006; 20%+ SINCE 1999)SINCE 1999)GERD/GDP REACHES 1.4% in 2006GERD/GDP REACHES 1.4% in 2006OECD ESTIMATES CHINA NOW #3 (IN OECD ESTIMATES CHINA NOW #3 (IN PPP)PPP)MORE THAN 60% OF GERD NOW FROM MORE THAN 60% OF GERD NOW FROM INDUSTRY (?)INDUSTRY (?)NEW LONG TERM PLAN SETS 2020 NEW LONG TERM PLAN SETS 2020 GOAL OF 2.5% GERD/GDPGOAL OF 2.5% GERD/GDP

A WEALTH OF TALENT? A WEALTH OF TALENT? (2006)(2006)

1.5 MILLION R&D PERSONNEL 1.5 MILLION R&D PERSONNEL

8 MILLION S,E,A,M UNDERGRADS8 MILLION S,E,A,M UNDERGRADS

502,303 S&E GRAD STUDENTS (2004)502,303 S&E GRAD STUDENTS (2004)

19,371 S&E PhDs AWARDED 19,371 S&E PhDs AWARDED

““SCIENCE DIASPORA”SCIENCE DIASPORA”

INSTITUTIONAL INSTITUTIONAL REVITALIZATIONREVITALIZATION

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES & CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES & “KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION “KNOWLEDGE INNOVATION PROGRAM”PROGRAM”UNIVERSITIES, “211,” “985” AND THE UNIVERSITIES, “211,” “985” AND THE QUEST FOR WORLD CLASS STATUSQUEST FOR WORLD CLASS STATUSREFORM OF GOVERNMENT RESEARCH REFORM OF GOVERNMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTES (INSTITUTES (QIYEHUA) QIYEHUA) ENTERPRISESENTERPRISESMNC R&D MNC R&D

MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM PLAN – MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM PLAN – 2006-20202006-2020

““INNOVATION-ORIENTED SOCIETY”INNOVATION-ORIENTED SOCIETY” REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED REDUCE DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED

TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY ONE OF 5 WORLD LEADERS IN ONE OF 5 WORLD LEADERS IN

PATENTINGPATENTING LEADER IN CITED PAPERSLEADER IN CITED PAPERS SETTER OF TECHNICAL STANDARDSSETTER OF TECHNICAL STANDARDS

11 KEY AREAS OF NATIONAL NEEDS11 KEY AREAS OF NATIONAL NEEDS8 AREAS OF FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES8 AREAS OF FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES13 NATIONAL ENGINEERING 13 NATIONAL ENGINEERING “MEGAPROJECTS”“MEGAPROJECTS”4 SCIENCE MEGAPROJECTS4 SCIENCE MEGAPROJECTS

SUCCESS MEASURESSUCCESS MEASURESTECHNOLOGICAL SPECTACULARS TECHNOLOGICAL SPECTACULARS – SPACE– SPACE

PATENTINGPATENTING

PUBLICATIONSPUBLICATIONS SHARE OF SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE SHARE OF SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE

2.1% TO 6.5%, 1995-20042.1% TO 6.5%, 1995-2004 55THTH IN SCI PUBLICATIONS IN SCI PUBLICATIONS 22NDND IN SCI, EI, ISTP PUBLICATIONS IN SCI, EI, ISTP PUBLICATIONS

HIGH TECH EXPORTSHIGH TECH EXPORTS

THE SKEPTICAL VIEW - QUALITYTHE SKEPTICAL VIEW - QUALITY

IN RESEARCHIN RESEARCH OVERCENTRALIZATIONOVERCENTRALIZATION MEGA PROJECTSMEGA PROJECTS EVALUATION SYSTEMEVALUATION SYSTEM MISCONDUCTMISCONDUCT ““SMART SCIENTISTS, BAD SYSTEM”SMART SCIENTISTS, BAD SYSTEM”

IN EDUCATIONIN EDUCATION

HUMAN RESOURCESHUMAN RESOURCES

SKEPTICAL VIEW - INNOVATIONSKEPTICAL VIEW - INNOVATION

IPR REGIMEIPR REGIME

VENTURE CAPITALVENTURE CAPITAL

R&D >COMMERCIALIZATION GAPR&D >COMMERCIALIZATION GAP

LABOR ABUNDANCE/CULTURE OF LOW LABOR ABUNDANCE/CULTURE OF LOW COST PRODUCTIONCOST PRODUCTION

DEPENDENCE OF FOREIGN DEPENDENCE OF FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY - INCL. LARGE PROJECTSTECHNOLOGY - INCL. LARGE PROJECTS

ROLE OF GOVERNMENTROLE OF GOVERNMENT

““THE ENTERPRISE PROBLEM”THE ENTERPRISE PROBLEM”

EXPECTED ROLE IN NISEXPECTED ROLE IN NISCONFLICTING EVIDENCECONFLICTING EVIDENCE SHARE OF R&D SPENDINGSHARE OF R&D SPENDING INDUSTRIAL SURVEY DATAINDUSTRIAL SURVEY DATA R&D/VALUE ADDED, R&D/SALESR&D/VALUE ADDED, R&D/SALES PATENT DATAPATENT DATA

OUTSOURCINGOUTSOURCING UNIVERSITIES, GRISUNIVERSITIES, GRIS OVERSEASOVERSEAS

HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY?HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY?

CHALLENGES: TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES: TECHNOLOGY POLICYPOLICY

GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKSGLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKSRELATIVE GAINSRELATIVE GAINSCHINESE IP?CHINESE IP?CHINESE STANDARDS?CHINESE STANDARDS?LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND REGIONAL LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND REGIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEMSINNOVATION SYSTEMSTECHNOLOGICAL DEPENDENCY & THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEPENDENCY & THE ENTERPRISE PROBLEMENTERPRISE PROBLEM

CHALLENGE: SCIENCE AND CHALLENGE: SCIENCE AND SOCIAL NEEDSSOCIAL NEEDS

NEEDSNEEDS ENERGYENERGY HEALTHHEALTH AGRICULTUREAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT, WEATHER, NATURAL DISASTERSENVIRONMENT, WEATHER, NATURAL DISASTERS PRODUCT SAFETYPRODUCT SAFETY

INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTSINSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS TRANSFER MECHANISMSTRANSFER MECHANISMS REGULATORY AFFAIRSREGULATORY AFFAIRS ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONSETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

INNOVATION OF A DIFFERENT SORTINNOVATION OF A DIFFERENT SORT

CHALLENGE: BASIC SCIENCECHALLENGE: BASIC SCIENCE

LEVELS OF SUPPORTLEVELS OF SUPPORT

CREATIVITYCREATIVITY CULTURECULTURE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTINSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT

SCIENTIFIC INTEGRITYSCIENTIFIC INTEGRITY

CHALLENGE: THE CHALLENGE: THE GLOBALIZATION OF RESEARCH GLOBALIZATION OF RESEARCH

AND INNOVATIONAND INNOVATION

SECURITY AND NATIONAL INTERESTSSECURITY AND NATIONAL INTERESTS

TECHNO-NATIONALISTS/GLOBALISTSTECHNO-NATIONALISTS/GLOBALISTS

MNCS & CHINESE R&D STRENGTHSMNCS & CHINESE R&D STRENGTHS THE UNIVERSITY SECTORTHE UNIVERSITY SECTOR CASCAS

MNC R&D CENTERS IN CHINAMNC R&D CENTERS IN CHINA

N=1,100 +/- (?)N=1,100 +/- (?)

SPEND ABOUT $2B/YEAR ???SPEND ABOUT $2B/YEAR ???

11-20% OF TOTAL R&D SPENDING IN 11-20% OF TOTAL R&D SPENDING IN CHINA??CHINA??

LEADING IN ORIGINAL PATENTSLEADING IN ORIGINAL PATENTS

IMPORTANT IN CHINA’S INNOVATION IMPORTANT IN CHINA’S INNOVATION ECO-SYSTEMECO-SYSTEM

CONTROVERSIES?CONTROVERSIES?

CHALLENGE: GOVERNANCECHALLENGE: GOVERNANCE

ACCOUNTABILITYACCOUNTABILITY

NATIONAL COORDINATIONNATIONAL COORDINATION

MINISTERIAL REORGANIZATIONMINISTERIAL REORGANIZATION

DISCONNECT BETWEEN MLP AND DISCONNECT BETWEEN MLP AND FUNDING, AND INSTITUTIONAL FUNDING, AND INSTITUTIONAL STABILITYSTABILITY

SCIENCE AND REGULATIONSCIENCE AND REGULATION

ROLE OF PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIESROLE OF PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

SUPERPOWER OR “SUPERNODE”?SUPERPOWER OR “SUPERNODE”?

FROM NATIONAL SYSTEMS TO FROM NATIONAL SYSTEMS TO INTERNATIONAL NETWORKSINTERNATIONAL NETWORKS

ARE THE POLICY CHALLENGES DIFFERENT?ARE THE POLICY CHALLENGES DIFFERENT?

HOW DOES CHINA SEE THE ISSUE?HOW DOES CHINA SEE THE ISSUE?

CHINA’S ASSETSCHINA’S ASSETS OPEN DOOROPEN DOOR TRADITION OF POLICY LEARNINGTRADITION OF POLICY LEARNING INTERN’L COOPERATION STRATEGYINTERN’L COOPERATION STRATEGY SCIENTIFIC DIASPORASCIENTIFIC DIASPORA

THANKS!THANKS!