China’s Low Carbon Development Scenarios

Miao Ren， Jiang Kejun， Hu Xiulian Energy Research Institute， China

Introduction China is the biggest developing country in the world,

and also the biggest GHG emission country. Realizing low carbon and environmental friendly development, is the main task of China’s new government. Especially under the pressure of heavy haze, some counter measures have been taken to reduce the coal consumption.

However, it must be realized that: the increasing energy consumption and GHG emission is a developing problem. In process of Urbanization and Industrialization, there are a lot of rigid driving force from the infrastructure, the living improvement. Until now, no country has escaped from the historical principle.

In order to investigate low carbon development pathway, several uncertainties must be considered: economic upgrade, technology improvement, and clean energy development. By applying the AIM models, complex problem can be simulated, including the scenarios of China’s economic transformation, the rational development of consumption and infrastructure, the technologies improvement and so on. To set the exogenous parameters reasonably, the international comparison are also considered.

This poster are partial of our research results. And a lot of follow-up study are needed. Please give us more help and suggestions. Thank you!

are shown,

Methodologies

Macroeconomic Scenario

Primary Energy and CO2 Emission

INSERT LOGO HERE I

19th AIM International Workshop, December 13-14, 2013, Tsukuba, Japan

Industry Structure in Future

Production Scenarios are partly derived from the Stock model Discussion with Industry Associations

Three AIM models are applied to investigate China’s Low Carbon development:

Tertiary Industry' Development

AIM-CGE

Industry Value

-Added

Steel

Urbanization Aging Industrialization

AIM-STOCK

Product & Service Demand

Steel

Cement Resident Buildings

Freight

Public Buildings

Passenger

Endu

se E

nerg

y

Heat

Cement

Service

Transportation

Construction

Aquiculture

Other

Secondary Industries

Resident living

Urban

Rural

AIM-Enduse

Gas

Ely

Oil

Coal

AIM-Enduse Pr

imar

y En

ergy

Hydun

Gas

Unclear

Oil

Coal

Wind

Solar

Scenarios Settings

Economy

Slow Economic Transformation

Accelerate Economic Transformation

BaU Tran

Technology

Technological advances slowly

Technological advances steadily

Technology revolution

Tech1 Tech2 Tech3

Scenario BaU CM1 CM2 CM3

Four Scenarios are defined by two levels: Economic Scenarios and Technology Scenarios

Same Economic Structure

Same Energy Efficiency

Economic Background

The industrial structure is difficult to optimize obviously in short term, Tertiary industry 46-47% on 2020 After 2020, the industrial adjustment speed will accelerate, and the work force structure and investment addiction will change Industrialization Complete Time：BaU-2025，Tran-2020 Construction industry is related to the urbanization process, peak stage:2010-2030 Till 2050, a fair scale of Manufacturing industry will remain： World factory Till 2050, Secondary Industry Proportion ：BaU-36%，Tran-30%

Investment on the heavy industry take big share in the past 10 years. Close to the level of Japan in 1965 Jap and USA’s trend is the future of China Except that: Parts of Manufacturing Industry will be kept in China In CGE model, Iinvestment direction is endogenous

Investment & Capital Formation

Rural follow Urban，2007rural close to 2002 the whole country Tendency： Agriculture↓ Manufacturing↑↓ Service↑ Local government→ →Commercial↑ Communication→ China' consumption structure (2007 ) is similar to Japan(1965), the rural trail bebind 8-10 years to the urban.

China in 2050 BaU Urban=1995 Japan Rural =1980 Japan Tran Urban=2002 USA Rural =1990 Japan

Consumption Structure

Development follows the sequence that producer services first and living services afterwards Producer services began to rise from 2005, BaU declines after2035, Tran declines after 2030

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Population( 100million) 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.4 13.8

GDP Increasing Rates%(ten-year average) 7.3 5.5 3.5 1.9

Capital Formation: Manufacturing, Construction Trend: Transportation and Communications , Service Industry, Financial Intermediation Scenario Setting: BaU =2030 USA Tran =2025 USA

Industrialization Secondary Industry has reached a peak of 40%, and Manufacturing industry of 35% Industrialization will complete in future10-20 years. China takes 40-50 years, Korea 40 years, Japan 70 years Deindustrialization will take a long trem: Made in China ——Made for China Urbanization Urbanization will end in 2040 Long Term Uncertainty：2050 70%-80% Influence Factors：Economic Transformation; Social Security; Revenue reform Ageing problem Influence Factors: Labor, Saving Rate and Consumption structure Old before rich:producer/consumer =136% (2015), Jap=125%(2002), USA=113%(2007)

Cement and Iron/Steel Sector

Cement 100Mt Kgce/t Iron 100Mt Kgce/t

Industry associations Industry associations Industry associations

Coal

Electric

New CokeOven

AdvancedCoke Oven

CokeNot Have

CDQ

Coke

SmeltingReduction

Other CrudeSteel

Existing BOF

New BOF

(AdvancedBOFElectric

Coal

Crude Iron CrudeSteel Not Have

Recovery

Recovery

Coal

CrudeSteel

ScrapIron

Electric

煤制混合能源

Fuel Mix, Coal煤制混合能源

Fuel Mix, CoalExisting Electric The

Furnace

New Electric Furnace

Advanced ElectricFurnace

CrudeSteel

MixedCrude Iron

煤制混合能源

Fuel Mix, Coal煤制混合能源

Fuel Mix, CoalMold

Existing Continuous Steel Casting

New Continuous Steel Casting

Advanced Continuous Steel Casting

Steel OtherProgress

SteelProduct

Electric

Coal

Export Coke

Retention Coke 焦炭

ExportingCoke

New SinteringFurnace

AdvancedSintering Furnace

Existing SinteringFurnace

Sintering Ore

Si t iSi t i

Electric

CoalExisting Blast

FurnaceNew BlastFurnace

AdvancedBlast Furnace

CrudeIron

Have

Not Have

Recovery+CCSCO2

Coal

Crude Iron

Not Have

Wet TRT

Dry TRT

Electric

Crude Steel

Crude Steel

Crude Steel

SinteringOre

Coking Sintering

Blast Furnace

Electric Casting and rolling

Converter

Smelting Reduction

CDQ

Blast furnace gasrecovery

TRT Converter gasrecovery

2222222121212111212121112121211121212121212121112121211121212111212121Have CDQ

ExistingCoke Oven

Device Setting of Iron/Steel Sector

石灰石Limestone

电Electricity

煤coal

石油产品Oil product

天然气Natural gas

生物质biomass

1煤制混合燃料Energy Mix, Coal

4生物质制混合燃料Energy Mix, Biomass

3气制混合燃料Energy Mix, Gas

2油制混合燃料Energy Mix, Oil

6立式磨机Vertical Mill (G)

5球磨机Ball Mill (G)

水泥混合燃料Mixed cement fuel

水泥熟料前体Clinker production(G)

7湿法焙烧Wet type kiln

10干法竖窑Dry shaft kiln(C)

9干法长窑Dry long kiln(C)

8半湿法焙烧Semi wet type kiln(C)

12先进窑CCSAdvanced kiln with CCS

11悬浮预热器窑/预分解窑SP/NSP(C)

CO2

电electricity

水泥熟料2Clinker production(C)

13水泥混合（熟料）Cement mix 其他水泥成分Other

cement

混合水泥Mixed cement

电electrycity

14管磨机Tube mill

15立式磨机Vertical mill

水泥产品Cement product

Device Setting of Cement Sector

Power Supply

BaU CM1 CM2

Tech1 Tech2 Tech3

Coal

SubcriticalPowerG

eneration

SupercriticalPowerG

eneration

Ultra

SupercriticalPower

Generation

IGCC

IGFC-CC

SupercriticalPower

Generation+CCS

Ultra

SupercriticalPower

Generation+CCS

IGCC+CCS

IGFC-CC+CCS

Coalpow

er

ExistingO

ilPower

Advanced

OilPow

erGeneration

Oil

Fueloilpow

er

New

Gas-electric

Advanced

Gas-electric

Advanced

Gas-electric+CCS

Gas

Biomasspow

ergenerationBiom

ass

Natural

gaspower

Biomass

power

SecondG

enerationN

uclearPow

er

Hydroelectric:Large

units

Nuclear

power

Hydroelectric

CentralizedElectric

The Existing Transmission

UHV Transmission

Geotherm

alpower

Distributed

Advanced

SolarPower

ExistingO

nshoreW

indPow

er

CentralizedSolarpow

er

Wind

power

Distributed

Solarpower

FourthG

enerationN

uclearPow

er

ThirdG

enerationN

uclearPow

er

Improved

SecondG

enerationN

uclearPower

Hydroelectric:Sm

allunits

CentralizedA

dvancedSolarPow

er

CentralizedExisting

SolarPower

Advanced

Onshore

Wind

Power

Distributed

ExistingSolarPow

er

ExistingO

ffshoreW

indPow

erA

dvancedO

ffshoreW

indPow

er

Electric

Distributed

Geotherm

alpow

er

Distributed

Gas-electric

Distributed

Naturalgaspow

er

Device Setting of Power Sector

Setting two scenarios of urbanization, which should be accord to different Industry Structures, Incomes and Social Security Levels. But inthe model, we set exogenous.

Saving Rates