china's paradox (october 2012)

7/31/2019 China's Paradox (October 2012)

1/8

oaldsaiilehraphi$eng

EFADHU RH_H@NVNEPNOL_ ?28?

G$ E|iild Pfngrund) ECHRlua`ldp # Efalc Adslupgldp Nccaele|iildpfngrundBoaldsaiilehraphieng

Ilp Efadh uillr) cn }fld ufl }hjlu |r ufl }aii ufhjl pfl }ni`' Dhrnilnd Ondhrhpl

UN OHUAEHIIQ EFADH AU NDL MAHDP LRENP ELDPL_)

}ll pfl }nù |ppll` oq Efau Rhslul) fagulic |du|l nc

}flpfl pflq cngl` h x|lupand) h pndm|l'ad'efllj

enggldp) n hd hrp u|gghq nc }fhp }l fh` }apdluul`

pn|adm dlhiq h `n{ld Efadlul eapalu pfau rhup uradm

]fhp ohccil` Efau) pfl Efalc Adslupgldp Nccael nc

Onqfaii Huulp Ghdhmlgldp) }hudp pfl eapq nc Pahdkad)

inehpl` ungl 802 jainglplu un|pflhup nc Olakadm) }fll h

$52 oaiiand lriaeh nc Ghdfhpphd) engrilpl }apf apu slq

n}d _nejlcliil Eldpl) au |d`l}hq Dn }hu ap pfl

Un|pf Efadh Ghii) pfl }niù ihmlup Chgn|u) n

adchgn|u hpfl) cn pfl pldhdpu hd` e|upnglu }fn

lghad endurae|n|uiq houldp) @ndmm|hdu n|p`nn ghii

glgnahia{lu h fhd`c|i nc pfl mlhp eapalu cng hn|d` pfl

}ni`) adei| adm Sldael) Rhau hd` Hgupl`hg ]fhp

adural` pfl enggldp }hu pfl ufnej nc ilhdadm nc rihdu

pn lelhpl Fhiiuphpp) pfl a`qiiae ihjlcndp H|upahd saiihml)

ad M|hd`ndm rnsadel) pfl un|pfld rhp nc Efadh

Pfhp Efadhu rniaeq'nefluphpl` adslupgldp onng

olmaddadm ad ?221 ldmadlll` h enupiq gauhiinehpand nc

ehraphi fhu olld }lii `ne|gldpl`) lsld ac pfl agriaehpandu

hl upaii oladm `lohpl` Henuu pfl en|dpq ad eapalu onpfihml hd` ughii sauapnu hl lvrnul` pn lua`ldpahi lhi

luphpl rnklepu adengrlflduaoiq ihml hd` agrnuuaoiq

hgoapan|u Hp ndl rnadp) lhiq ad h leldp par nd pfl

n|pujapu nc Ufld{fld) A dnpael` h `lclep nc pfl aRfndl; apu

adhoaiapq pn u|ccaealdpiq {nng n|p pn c|iiq ehrp|l pfl

olhpfphjadm lvrhduasldluu nc hdq d|gol nc ndmnadm

`lslinrgldpu }l rhuul`

O|p pfau g|ef }l fh` mhpfll` Fhsadm rn|l` nsl

Efadhu r|oiaufl` uphpaupaeu cn gndpfu) }l hilh`q jdl}

pfhp ohdj ildàdm hd` lhi luphpl endup|epand fh` mndl

rhhoniae ]l hiun jdl} Efadhu gndlq u|rriq fh` gnl

pfhd `n|oil` uadel pfl ujq ehgl ehufadm `n}d nd pfl

minohi lendngq ad pfl chii nc ?226 Un ap }hu dn u|raul

pfhp pfl }niù mhd`lup gndlphq upag|i|u) fhupaiq

ldhepl` ad pfl flhp nc pfl Mlhp _leluuand) fh` lvfh|upl`

dlhiq hii ulduaoil adslupgldp rnklepupfl ndlu pfhp

en|i` mldlhpl ehuf cin}u u|ccaealdp pn ulsael pfl rnklepu

heengrhdqadm `lop) hu }lii hu masl h onnup pn pfl

en|dpqu nslhii rn`|epasapq

O|p }fhp fh` dnp nee|l` pn |u }hu pfhp ad pfla fhupl)

pfl Efadlul fh` hiun lvfh|upl` elhpasapqfldel) pfla

`leauand pn agrnp sluandu nc mlhp eapalu cng hn|d` pfl

}ni` Pn `lrinq pfl dl}iq'radpl` gndlq) hd` pn jllr

apu M@R f|ggadm hindm hp apu rln`hadl` hpl) Efadh

lunpl` pn pfl phepaeu nc ]hip @audlq Apu h upnq pfhp

ullgu `lupadl` pn ol pni` oq Gaefhli Il}au Ndl pfhp

adei|`lu hii nc pfl chgaiah pflglumll`) f|oau hd`

dhaslpclhp|l` ad Pfl Oam Ufnp) Onnglhdm) n h d|gol

nc fau Shdapq Cha hpaeilu }fll h eniilepasl gh`dluu

ullgu pn mar h dhpand) lu|ipadm ad oaiiandu }hupl`8

Efadh fhu h}njld Hd` hu Dhrnilnd u|mmlupl`) ap fhuufhjld pfl }ni` Ad pfl ihup pfll `leh`lu) Efadh fhu

gh`l h x|hdp|g ilhr ad lendngae uamdacaehdel)

ehphr|ipadm apulic cng h en|dpq nc rlarflhi endeld pn

ndl nc uquplgae agrnphdel Ad 8162) Efadh heen|dpl` cn

?, nc minohi M@R Pn`hq) ap lrluldpu 80, nc pfl mnnù

hd` ulsaelu rn`|el` minohiiq ]fld chepnadm ad onpfpfl ua{l hd` snihpaiapq nc apu mn}pf) ad ?282) Efadh }hu

gnl agrhepc|i pn pfl minohi lendngq pfhd pfl \U hd`

L|nrl engoadl`?

8 Andaehiiq) ufnpiq hcpl A fh` }appld pfau uldpldel A hd adpn Gaefhli Il}au) ndl nc pfl olup efndaeilu ncpfl cadhdeahi eauau) hp h ughii fnpli ad Urhad }fll A rilh`l` }apf fag pn plii pfl Efadh upnq ad Shdapq Cha? Un|el; Oaldsaiil Ehraphi Ghdhmlgldp: AGC: Oa`ml}hpl Huuneahplu

2,


2/8

Rhml ? nc 6oaldsaiilehraphi$eng

Hu rhp nc apu 82'cni` adelhul ad cavl` huulp adslupgldp

nsl pfl rhup `leh`l) Efadh olehgl pfl ghmadhi `lghd`

cn dlhiq hii enggn`apalu) endu|gadm


3/8

Rhml 5 nc 6oaldsaiilehraphi$eng

O|p hua`l cng pflul rle|iahapalu) rlfhru gnup

adpaga`hpadm au pfhp Efadhu faupnq au un indm) hd` un

`ldul pfhp }fld ulppadm n|p pn hdhiq{l ap) apu fh` pn

`lplgadl h uphpadm rnadp Pfau au hd auu|l lsld faupnahdu

hrrhldpiq up|mmil }apf Ad pfl nrldadm rnpand nc fau

onnj) Nd Efadh) Fldq Jauuadml dnpl` pfhp h urleahi

clhp|l nc Efadlul easaia{hpand au pfhp ap ullgu pn fhsl dn

olmaddadm Ap hrrlhu ad faupnq iluu hu h endsldpandhi

dhpand'uphpl pfhd h rlghdldp dhp|hi rfldngldnd

Efadh k|up unp nc upa`lu adpn pfl faupnaehi

enduean|udluu

Efadh dn `n|op ldpll` n| lurlepasl gad`u hp shqadm

paglu O|p cn n| r|rnulu) h cl} `hplu uphd` n|p Cn

aduphdel) 81=6 }hu }fld Efadh `auohd`l` h d|gol nc

hmae|ip|hi engg|dlu hd` nrldl` apu lendngq pn pfl

}ni`) amdapadm chup mn}pf Ap }hu ad 8115 }fld inehi

mnsldgldpu onn}l` lveluuasliq cng ohdju) eh|uadmpfl gndlq u|rriq hd` adcihpand pn unh Pfl lu|ipadm


4/8


`n}d 82, nsl pfl rhup qlh! hd` pfl `lual hd`

}fll}apfhi cn hdnpfl adslupgldp'il` upag|i|u &onpf

in}) ad n| nradand!

O|p pfau dhn} sal} chaiu pn h``luu ndl nc pfl gnl

r|{{iadm hurlepu nc Efadhu lendngq; }fq endu|grpand)hu h endpao|pn pn pfl nslhii lendngq) au un enduaupldpiq

}lhj Pfl hdu}l ghq ol àcclldp cng }fhp qn| pfadj

Ac qn| }hdpl` pn `h} pfl lsni|pand nc endu|grpand adEfadh nsl pfl rhup ?2 qlhu) qn| }n|i` caup ldsauand h

gn|dphad rlhj) hd` pfld olmhd ujlpefadm h indm)

mh`|hiiq `leiadadm iadl pn pfl amfp Pfl uinrl nc pfl

`leiadadm iadl }n|i` adplduacq dnpaelhoiq pn}hù pfl ld`)

pfl rlan` lrluldpadm ?22? pn ?226) }fll endu|grpand

adelhul` hdd|hiiq oq 85?,) o|p |d`lrlcngl` pfl

8=5, dngadhi mn}pf cn pfl nslhii lendngq3 Ndelengrilpl`) qn| hpaupae ldàpand }n|i` lrluldp

endu|grpandu ufhl nc Efadhu lendngq) ehrp|adm apu

`leiadl cng dlhiq 32, nc M@R ad 8112 pn 5


5/8

Rhml < nc 6oaldsaiilehraphi$eng

Ad qlhu rhup pfl dll` pn agrnp ehraphi ghq fhsl olld

iluu nc hd auu|l Cn nsl h `leh`l Efadh fhu olld pfl

oldlcaeahq nc u|uphadl` dlp ehraphi adcin}u namadhpadm

cng pfll un|elu; Efadhu rllddahi ph`l u|ri|u)

cnlamd àlep adslupgldp) hd` urle|ihpasl ehraphi fnradm

pn rncap cng }fhp }hu olialsl` pn ol pfl |dadpl|rpl`

hrrleahpand nc pfl _GO Pflul rluaupldp adcin}ulu|ipl` ad ho|d`hdp `lrnuap mn}pf pfhp ulsl` h e|eahi

nil ad Efadhu hoaiapq pn ghadphad famf hplu nc mn}pf;

pflq jlrp pfl ohdjadm uquplg) indm u|urlepl` pn ol

adunisldp) u|ccaealdpiq iax|a` Oh` inhdu en|i` ol niil`

nsl hd` dl} ndlu cn mn}pf }ll lhuaiq c|d`l` Ad h

uldul) pfl ldpal lendngae up|ep|l au `lrld`ldp nd

iax|aàpq ad pfl ohdjadm uquplg) hd` adàlepiq) pfl einul`

ehraphi heen|dp) }faef fhu faupnaehiiq jlrp ap pfll

O|p famf adcihpand nsl pfl ihup cl} qlhu fhu r|ufl` |r

}hmlu hd` lu|ipl` ad h auadm lhi lvefhdml hpl)

lnàdm Efadhu lvpldhi heen|dpu Apu e|ldp heen|dp

u|ri|u fhu chiild ufhriq cng nsl 82, ad ?22= pn iluu

pfhd 5, pn`hq _auadm |dap ihon enupu fhsl hiun e|ufl`

lp|du nd ehraphi) ghjadm Efadh iluu hpphepasl hu h

`lupadhpand cn cnlamd àlep adslupgldp Hd` pfl

urle|ihpasl adcin}u fhsl olm|d pn lslul) }apf e|ldp

lupaghplu nc n|pcin}u hdmadm cng 5 pn


6/8


7/8

Rhml = nc 6oaldsaiilehraphi$eng

cauehia{hpand nc pfl ohdjadm uquplgpfhp au) oq radpadm

gndlq Un }fhp }lsl }apdluul` nsl pfl rhup 52 qlhu au

hd lh }fll luuldpahiiq cll ihon }hu u|oulx|ldpiq glp

oq luuldpahiiq cll ehraphi Efadh fhu qlp pn `lgnduphpl

pfhp ap ehd mn} ad h u|uphadhoil chufand

_lmhìluu nc }fhp Efadhu mn}pf |ipaghpliq rnslu pn

ol) pfl engrnuapand nc ap au iajliq pn ol glhdadmc|iiq

àcclldppfhp au) ch iluu naldpl` pn cavl` huulp

adslupgldp Hd` iluu cavl` huulp adslupgldp agrialu iluu

`lghd` cn h d|gol nc ad`|upahi enggnàpalu) ungl nc

}faef au dn} lcilepl ad raelu Pfau nc en|ul fhu

agriaehpandu henuu pfl minohi lendngq) hu }lii hu adslupn

rnpcnianu) }fnul lglmadm ghjlp hd` enggnàpq

lvrnu|l fhu olld gnupiq endpasl` nd pfl lvphrnihpand

nc rlsan|u pldù

Efadh au dnp Lrenp) hu lsld Efau }aii hpplup O|p dlapfl au

ap h gaheil Ap }aii lvrlaldel faee|ru Ap }aii fap o|gru

hindm pfl nh` pn adelhuadm ilsliu nc rnurlapq) }faef au

rlclepiq dhp|hi cn hdq `lslinradm en|dpq

Agrnphdpiq) h d|gol nc oldlcapu en|i` heengrhdq gnl

ohihdel` mn}pf ad Efadh Cn ndl) iluu `lghd` cn

ad`|upahi enggnàpalu }aii l`|el pfl agriaeap phv nd pfl

`lslinrl` }ni`) lhuadm pfla ndmnadm `lilslhmadm Hd`

ulendìq) ap }aii huuaup ad pfl dll`l` lohihdeadm nc pfl

minohi lendngq Efadh) ad endk|depand }apf Khrhd hd`

Mlghdq) lrluldp pfl }niù ?d`) 5` hd` 0pf ihmlup

lendngalu Pflq ehddnp eniilepasliq ghadphad ihml)

rluaupldp ph`l u|ri|ulu @nadm un }n|i` lx|al npflen|dpalu) u|ef hu pfl \U hd` L|nrl) pn endpad|l

|ddadm ihml hd` rluaupldp ph`l `lcaeapu Jllr ad gad`

pfhp h e|ldp heen|dp u|ri|u lrluldpu h `lcaealdeq nc

`nglupae `lghd` Oq h`àdm gnl pn pfl u|rriq nc mnnù

pfhd `lghd` cn pflg) h u|ri|u en|dpq rihelu h o|`ld

nd pfl lghad`l nc pfl }ni` Ap }hu pfau pnvae hd`

|du|uphadhoil `qdhgae pfhp il` pfl }ni` pn pfl hoquu ad

?226 Oq endphup) gnl ohihdel` mn}pf ad Efadh)

}flloq pfl endu|gl olenglu h gnl uamdacaehdp chepn

ad pfl minohi lendngq) }aii rnsa`l dll`l` `lghd` ad h

}ni` `lcaealdp nc ap82

Lhef au h ralel nc pfl endpadldp) h rhp nc pfl ghad) }npl

Knfd @nddl ad Dn Ghd Au Hd Auihd`) fau chgn|u rnlg

lgadàdm |u pfhp dnpfadm p|iq nee|u ad aunihpand Pfl

adplenddlepl`dluu nc pfl minohi lendngq ldu|lu pfhp }l

hl hii iadjl` ad ungl }hq pn Efadhu `lslinrgldp) apu

rniaealu) hd` apu u|eeluulu hd` chai|lu Efadh au h gquplq

82 Daefnihu Ih`q olialslu pfhp ac endu|grpand ad Efadh fh` uagriq jlrp rhel }apf nslhii dngadhi M@Rap }n|i` ol ?


8/8


OALDSAIIL EHRAPHI GHDHMLGLDP)IIE

Oaldsaiil Ehraphi Ghdhmlgldp) IIE au hd ULE'lmaupll`

adslupgldp h`saunq hd` ghdhmlgldp cag nccladm

adslupgldp uni|pandu pn unrfaupaehpl` adslupnu

Pfl glgolu nc pfl Oaldsaiil plhg fhsl onh` hd`

engriagldphq lvrlpaul ad pfl adslupgldp o|uadluu)

adei|àdm nsl 822 qlhu nc eniilepasl lvrlaldel ad rashpl

}lhipf ghdhmlgldp) adupap|pandhi adslupgldp

ghdhmlgldp) phàdm) adslupgldp ohdjadm hd` rashpl

lx|apq

Oaldsaiil Ehraphi Ghdhmlgldp au pfl ghdhml nc Oaldsaiil

Ehraphi Rhpdlu) IR hd` pfl M|ic Enhup Nrrnp|dapalu

C|d`) IR ]l hl flh`x|hpll` ad Dl} Qnj) DQ

@AUEIHAGL_U

Oaldsaiil Ehraphi Ghdhmlgldp) IIE &Oaldsaiil! au hd

ULE lmaupll` adslupgldp h`saul }apf apu radearhi rihel

nc o|uadluu ad pfl Uphpl nc Dl} Qnj Oaldsaiil hd` apu

lrluldphpaslu hl ad engriahdel }apf pfl e|ldp dnpael

caiadm lx|algldpu agrnul` |rnd lmaupll` adslupgldp

h`saulu oq pfnul uphplu ad }faef Oaldsaiil ghadphadu

eialdpu Oaldsaiil ghq ndiq phduhep o|uadluu ad pfnul

uphplu ad }faef ap au dnpael cail`) n x|hiacalu cn hd

lvlgrpand n lvei|uand cng dnpael caiadm

lx|algldpu Pfau `ne|gldp au iagapl` pn pfl

àuulgadhpand nc mldlhi adcnghpand rlphadadm pn apu

adslupgldp h`saunq ulsaelu Hdq u|oulx|ldp) àlep

engg|daehpand oq Oaldsaiil }apf h rnurlepasl eialdp ufhii

ol end`|epl` oq h lrluldphpasl pfhp au lapfl lmaupll`

n x|hiacalu cn hd lvlgrpand n lvei|uand cng

lmauphpand ad pfl uphpl }fll pfl rnurlepasl eialdp

lua`lu Cn adcnghpand rlphadadm pn pfl lmauphpand

uphp|u nc Oaldsaiil) rilhul endphep Oaldsaiil n lcl pn pfl

Adslupgldp H`saul R|oiae @aueinu|l }lo uapl

&}}}h`sauladcnulemns!

Pfau `ne|gldp au endca`ldpahi) adpld`l` ndiq cn pfl

rlund pn }fng ap fhu olld rnsa`l`) hd` |d`l dn

eae|guphdel ghq ol ufn}d) phdugappl` n npfl}aul

rnsa`l` pn hdq rlund npfl pfhd pfl h|pfna{l`

learaldp ]fail hii adcnghpand ad pfau `ne|gldp au

olialsl` pn ol hee|hpl) pfl Mldlhi Rhpdl ghjlu dn

lvrluu }hhdpq hu pn apu engrilpldluu n hee|heq hd` au

dnp lurnduaoil cn lnu ad pfl `ne|gldp

Pfau `ne|gldp endphadu mldlhi adcnghpand pfhp au dnp

u|aphoil cn lslqndl Pfl adcnghpand endphadl` fllad

ufn|i` dnp ol endup|l` hu rlundhia{l` adslupgldp

h`sael Pfl sal}u lvrluul` fll hl pfl e|ldp nradandu

nc pfl h|pfn hd` dnp dleluuhaiq pfnul nc Oaldsaiil Ehraphi

Ghdhmlgldp Pfl h|pfnu nradandu hl u|oklep pn efhdml

}apfn|p dnpael Pfll au dn m|hhdpll pfhp pfl sal}u hd`

nradandu lvrluul` ad pfau `ne|gldp }aii engl pn

rhuu Adslupadm ad pfl upnej ghjlp adsnislu mhadu hd`

inuulu hd` ghq dnp ol u|aphoil cn hii

adslupnu Adcnghpand rluldpl` fllad au u|oklep pn

efhdml }apfn|p dnpael hd` ufn|i` dnp ol endua`ll` hu h

uniaeaphpand pn o|q n ulii hdq ule|apq

Rhup rlcnghdel ghq dnp ol adàehpasl nc c|p|l lu|ipu

hd` pfl rlcnghdel nc h urleacae adàsa`|hi eialdp heen|dp

ghq shq u|ouphdpahiiq cng pfl cnlmnadm mldlhi

rlcnghdel lu|ipu Pfllcnl) dn e|ldp n rnurlepasleialdp ufn|i` huu|gl pfhp c|p|l rlcnghdel }aii ol

rncaphoil n lx|hi pfl cnlmnadm lu|ipu C|pflgnl)

àcclldp pqrlu nc adslupgldpu hd` ghdhmlgldp upqilu

adsnisl shqadm `lmllu nc auj hd` pfll ehd ol dn

huu|hdel pfhp hdq adslupgldp n adslupgldp upqil }aii ol

rncaphoil

Pfl adcnghpand endphadl` fllad lmhàdm pfl M|ic

Enhup Nrrnp|dapalu C|d`) IR &pfl C|d`! fhu olld

rlrhl` uniliq cn aii|uphpand hd` àue|uuand r|rnulu

hd` au dnp adpld`l` pn ol) dn ufn|i` ap ol endup|l` n

|ul` hu) hd nccl pn o|q n ulii n h uniaeaphpand nc hd ncclpn o|q n ulii hdq iagapl` rhpdlufar adpllupu ad pfl

C|d`

Pfau `ne|gldp au dnp adpld`l` pn ol) dn ufn|i` ap ol

endup|l` n |ul` hu) hd nccl pn ulii n h uniaeaphpand nc hdq

nccl pn o|q ule|apalu nc Oaldsaiil Ehraphi Rhpdlu) IR

Dn nccl n uniaeaphpand ghq ol gh`l ran pn pfl `liaslq

nc pfl Endca`ldpahi Rashpl Nccladm Glgnhd`|g nc pfl

C|d` Ule|apalu nc pfl C|d` ufhii dnp ol nccll` n uni` ad

hdq k|auàepand ad }faef u|ef nccl) uniaeaphpand n uhil

}n|i` ol |dih}c|i |dpai pfl lx|algldpu nc pfl ih}u nc

u|ef k|auàepand fhsl olld uhpaucal`

Cn h`àpandhi adcnghpand hon|p Oaldsaiil) adei|àdm cllu

hd` ulsaelu) rilhul ull n| àueinu|l uphplgldp hu ulp

cnpf nd Cng H@S

china's paradox (october 2012)

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