china’s role in the course of north korea’s transition

Upload: korea-economic-institute-of-america-kei

Post on 07-Apr-2018

222 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    1/20

    E DOV KD]OQDE]KHDEN ODFEFOCOD]

    JQECOVHQI JHQ DHQ]G IHQOE8@hd}odmkdf Roqpro`}kzopOmk}hqp< Egd @ghhdf#{hdf. Dk`ghnep Oaoqp}em}. Noo [hudf#pud

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    2/20

    z

    @hd}od}p

    Rqoje`o edm E`idhvnomfcod}p zkk

    Dh}o hd Decop w

    5 Kd}qhm`}khd edm Hzoqzkov 0

    Egd @ghhdf#{hdf. Dk`ghnep Oaoqp}em}. edm Noo [hdf#pd

    ]go Rhnk}k`en O`hdhc{ hj Dhq}g Ihqoe

    1 ]go Rhnk}k`en O`hdhc{ hj Dhq}g Ihqoe< 56Gkp}hqk`en Ae`ifqhdm edm Rqopod} Pk}e}khd

    Ceq`p Dhnedm

    0 ]go P}q`}qo hj Dhq}g Ihqoep Rhnk}k`en O`hdhc{< =?@gedfop edm Ojjo`}p

    Noo [hdf#pd edm [hhd Mohi#q{hdf= Dhq}g Ihqoep Pqzkzen Feco< :0

    _dmoqp}edmkdf }go Qo`od} Rep}. ]gkdikdf eah} }go J}qoDk`ghnep Oaoqp}em}

    Rqo`hdmk}khdp edm Qe}khdeno jhq Kd}oqde}khden O`hdhck`

    Purrhq} jhq Dhq}g Ihqoe

    ? Cedefkdf @hnne}oqen @e}ep}qhrgo< Qe}khdeno edm Rqo`hdmk}khdp 556

    jhq Kd}oqde}khden O`hdhck` Prrhq} jhq Dhq}g IhqoeChhd @gdf#kd

    : P}qe}ofk` Mkcodpkhdp hj O`hdhck` Eppkp}ed`o jhq Dhq}g Ihqoe 5=6Ren Aqe`iod

    6 Jhqokfd Ekm edm Kd}oqde}khden Dhqcp< 5?;]go @epo hj Dhq}g Ihqoe

    @eqhn Ned`ep}oq

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    3/20

    7 Rqhpro`}p edm Rqo`hdmk}khdp jhq Ceqio} O`hdhck` 56?]qedpjhqce}khd kd Dhq}g Ihqoe

    Edmoqp pndm

    Rhppkano Jhqcp hj Kd}oqde}khden @hhroqe}khd edm

    Eppkp}ed`o }h Dhq}g Ihqoe

    ; _dnkion{ Req}doqp< 5;;Gcedk}eqked Ekm Efod`kop edm Dhq}g Ihqoe

    Omveqm R$ Qoom

    52 Mopkfdkdf Rank` Po`}hq @erk}en Chaknk|e}khd P}qe}ofkop jhq }go MRQI 105Aqemno{ H$ Aeaphd

    55 @hrkdf vk}g Dhq}g Ihqoep Odoqf{ J}qo< IOMH edm Ao{hdm 1?6Iod} O$ @enmoq

    51 Chaknk|kdf Rqkze}o @erk}en jhq Dhq}g Ihqoe< 16?Qoukqocod}p jhq E}}qe`}kdf Rqkze}o Kdzop}cod}

    Cen`hnc Akdip edm @eqn Emecp

    Rhppkano Qhno hj Phu}g Ihqoe edm H}goq Celhq P}eioghnmoqp

    50 E Rqhe`}kzo Errqhe`g }h Odfefkdf Dhq}g Ihqoe< 1;?Ahnmdopp. Jnowkaknk}{. edm Kd`npkzodopp

    @ghh [hdf#pgki edm Vedf [d#lhdf

    5= Re{ae`i ]kco< LeredDhq}g Ihqoe O`hdhck` Qone}khdp 056Qk`geqm L$ Peconp

    5? @gkdep Qhno kd }go @hqpo hj Dhq}g Ihqoep ]qedpk}khd 00?Nk Ckdf

    5: Qppked#Dhq}g Ihqoed Qone}khdp edm }go Rqhpro`}p jhq 0?5Cn}kne}oqen @hdjnk`} Qophn}khd hd }go Ihqoed Rodkdpne

    Enowedmqo [$ Cedphqhz

    56 Owro`}om Qhno hj Ph}g Ihqoe edm Celhq P}eioghnmoqp< 0:6DFH @hd}qka}khdp }h edm Qhnop kd Dhq}g Ihqoep Qogeaknk}e}khd

    P`h}} Pd{moq

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    4/20

    00?

    5?

    @gkdep Qhno kd }go @huqpo hjDhq}g Ihqoep ]qedpk}khd

    Nku Ckdf

    ]go Dhq}g Ihqoe 'Moch`qe}k` Rohrnop Qorank` hj Ihqoe YMRQIS+ d`noeqmqece hjjoqp e fhhm `ged`o jhq jdmecod}enn{ `qkdf }go Dhq}gp p}q`#}qen rqhanocp edm qh}kdo qkpop$ Enn }go hd}qkop hd Dhq}g Ihqoep roqkrg#oq{ rnp }go _dk}om P}e}op gezo jhqcom e `hdpodpp }ge} k} kp qfod} }h jkdm e

    ve{ h} hj }go `qqod} Dhq}g Ihqoed d`noeq p}enoce}o. vgk`g enph }h`goprhd h}goq po`}hqp kd Dhq}g Ihqoe edm }ge} hd}q{p nhdf#p}edmkdf hd`oqd

    }hveqm }go h}pkmo$ Kd h}goq vhqmp. ed{ phn}khd }h }go rqhanoc hj Dhq}gIhqoe doomp e ikdm hj hcrqogodpkzo errqhe`g edm eqqedfocod} hq. ep ennoma{ ced{ Ihqoe owroq}p. e fqoe} aeqfekd9 o`hdhck` nozoqefo hq kd`od}kzop vknnrne{ e pkfdkjk`ed} qhno$

    @gkde gep e nhdf gkp}hq{ hj e `nkod} qone}khdpgkr vk}g Dhq}g Ihqoe9 mqkdf}go `qqod} d`noeq `qkpkp. k} mqevp }go vhqnm prh}nkfg} }gqhfg k}p rqhe`}kzopg}}no mkrnhce`{$ Kj enn }go req}k`kred}p kd }go pkw#req}{ }enipDhq}g Ihqoe.

    Ph}g Ihqoe. @gkde. Lered. Qppke. edm }go _dk}om P}e}op`ed jkdenn{ vhqih} e re`iefo hj phn}khdp. @gkde cp} ao ed kdmkprodpeano feqed}hq edm e`hd}qka}hq kd }go kcrnocod}e}khd rqh`opp$

    Ep{cco}qk`en ]kop ao}vood Aoklkdf edm R{hdf{edf

    ]go p}e}p hj @gkde#Dhq}g Ihqoe }kop gep enve{p aood kd`hd`npkzo edm edkppo jhq moae}o echdf Ihqoe owroq}p$ Kd je`}. }gokq qone}khdpgkr qojno`}p kd#goqod} `hd}qemk`}khdp$ Fkzod }ge} @gkde rne{om e pkfdkjk`ed} qhno kd penzefkdf

    }go MRQI jqhc k}p }h}en jeknqo kd }go oeqn{ roqkhm hj }go Ihqoed Veq }gqhfge cknnkhd#p}qhdf jkfg}kdf jhq`o. k}p pro`ken p}e}p kd cekd}ekdkdf e uepk ennk#ed`o 'mop`qkaom ep aokdf ep `nhpo ep nkrp edm }oo}g+ vk}g }go Dhq}g pkd`o

    }go odm hj }go veq hd }go aepkp hj }gokq peco kmohnhf{. k}p `hd}kdkdf ow#

    `gedfo edm p{cahnk` rhnk`{ hdpn}e}khdenaok} dh} }hh `nhpovk}g Dhq}gIhqoe noemoqp. edm k}p odmnopp o`hdhck` eppkp}ed`o }h Dhq}g Ihqoe. ced{

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    5/20

    00: E Dov Kd}oqde}khden Odfefocod} Jqecovhqi jhq Dhq}g Ihqoe8

    rohrno ghnm }ge} Aoklkdfp qone}khdp vk}g R{hdf{edf eqo c`g `nhpoq }ged

    ed{ qone}khdp Dhq}g Ihqoe gep vk}g ed{ h}goq `hd}q{ kd }go vhqnm$ ]gp.@gkde gep e pro`ken kdjnod`o hd }go MRQI$ Ep jhq }go }odpkhd edm ak}}oq

    joonkdfp }hveqm oe`g h}goq mqkdf }go ckm#5;;2p< }go{ `hnm ao `hcreqomvk}g e ceqqkom `hrno vk}g ced{ fqkozed`op hq mkp}qp} vgh p}knn nkzo }h#fo}goq dmoq }go peco qhhj a} kd mkjjoqod} qhhcp$ ]go{ idhv `noeqn{ }ge} emkzhq`o vhnm aqkdf chqo geqc }ged fhhm }h ah}g hj }goc$

    Fodoqenn{ proeikdf. @gkde kp Dhq}g Ihqoep rhnk}k`en edm po`qk}{ rqh}o`#}hq edm e nhdf#}op}om enn{9 }go }vh `hd}qkop gezo kdmoom cedefom }h cekd#}ekd }gokq jqefkno qone}khdp vk}gh} aokdf hrodn{ e} hmmp kd }go je`o hj roqk#

    hmk` fnhaen edm nh`en#odzkqhdcod} }qedpjhqce}khdp$ Ao`epo hj k}p mkpemzed#}efo edm d`oq}ekd rhpk}khd kd k}p podpo hj po`qk}{ hd }go Ihqoed rodkdpne.Dhq}g Ihqoe gep }h qon{ hd @gkdep edm Qppkep prrhq}9 edm ao`epo hj k}p

    kdpjjk`kod} odoqf{ edm jhhm prrn{ edm rhhqn{ roqjhqckdf o`hdhc{. Dhq}gIhqoe `hdp}ed}n{ morodmp jhq pqzkzen hd @gkdep edm h}goq `hd}qkop eppkp#}ed`o. en}ghfg }gkp morodmod`o gep aood qom`om kd ah}g eaphn}o edm qone#

    }kzo }oqcp 'Cedphqhz 1220+$ Ep nhdf ep R{hdf{edfp mkrnhce}k`. o`hdhck`.edm po`qk}{ cedozoqkdf qhhc kp nkck}om hq k}p p}qe}ofk` edm rhnk}k`en odzk#qhdcod} gep dh} aood fqoe}n{ }qdom kd k}p jezhq. k} cp} qofeqm Aoklkdf ep k}p

    kdmkprodpeano re}qhd$ Kd }gohq{. }goqojhqo. @gkde `hnm ioor e `oq}ekd mo#fqoo hj k}p kdjnod`o hzoq Dhq}g Ihqoe }gqhfg }go po hj pro`kjk` nozoqefo$

    Ghvozoq. }go p`eno hj @gkdopo eppkp}ed`o edm @gkdep roq`okzom akf#aqh}goq

    rhpk}khd zkp##zkp Dhq}g Ihqoe mh dh} ce}`g k}p rqe`}k`en qhno edm kdjnod`o

    kd pgerkdf Dhq}g Ihqoe rhnk`{ edm aogezkhq$ Hdo qoephd kp }ge} R{hdf{edfkp veq{ hj Aoklkdfp kd}oqde}khden kdjnod`o. k}p eaknk}{ }h hnneahqe}o vk}g }go

    _dk}om P}e}op edm Ph}g Ihqoe. k}p vknnkdfdopp }h jhp}oq }qemk}khden jqkodm#pgkr. edm k}p `qomkaknk}{ kd jnjknnkdf k}p `hcck}cod}p }h }go MRQI kd `epo hj`qkpkp$ ]goqojhqo. ah}g hrodn{ edm rqkze}on{. }go MRQI vknn }q{ }h nkck} hq

    mhvdrne{ @gkdep qhno edm kdjnod`o mqkdf }go qophn}khd hj }go `qqod}`qkpkp edm ep k} ejjo`}p Dhq}g Ihqoep j}qo. ozod }ghfg e `oq}ekd nozon hjkdzhnzocod} jhq }go RQ@ kd }edmoc vk}g cn}kne}oqen ojjhq}p kp qon`}ed}n{

    e`idhvnomfom a{ }go MRQI$ R{hdf{edf fodoqenn{ pooip }h ezhkm ed{ nkdiefo

    ao}vood k}p qouop}p }h @gkde jhq o`hdhck` ekm edm @gkdep zkovp hd Ihqoedrodkdpne kppop. edm }h mkzoqpkj{ k}p h}goq rh}od}ken phq`op hj ekm. p`g ep

    Qppke edm kd}oqde}khden hqfedk|e}khdp$ K} vhnm enph e}}ocr} }h qekpo }gop}eiop a{ aened`kdf k}p }vh dokfgahqkdf fked}p@gkde edm Qppkeefekdp}oe`g h}goq '\hdf 1220+$ Ao`epo @gkde kp eveqo hj Dhq}g Ihqoed pprk`khdp

    edm roq`okzop }go mkjjk`n}{ hj kdjnod`kdf }go MRQI. @gkde gep ponmhc pomk}p nozoqefo jhq e rhnk}k`en rqrhpo9 }gkp kd }qd qop}qekdp @gkdep kdjnod`o$

    ]go morodmod`o hj Dhq}g Ihqoe hd @gkde kp dh} }h}enn{ hdo ve{$ Aojhqo

    5;;1. @gkde qofeqmom Dhq}g Ihqoe cekdn{ kd rhnk}k`en edm p}qe}ofk` hd}ow}p$Ej}oq dhqcenk|e}khd hj qone}khdp vk}g Pohn. }gkp ikdm hj p}qe}ofk` cod}enk}{

    kd @gkdep Dhq}g Ihqoe rhnk`{ mo`qoepom fqoe}n{$ ]h @gkde. Dhq}g Ihqoe kp dhnhdfoq e do`oppeq{ ajjoq ao}vood k}ponj edm }go _dk}om P}e}op edm Ph}g

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    6/20

    @gkdep Qhno kd }go @huqpo hj Dhq}g Ihqoep ]qedpk}khd 006

    Ihqoe$ ]gkp mhop dh} coed }ge} Aoklkdf hdpkmoqp }go MRQI e qomdmed} edm

    dzenom dokfgahqkdf `hd}q{ ozod }ghfg }go MRQI kp ed o`hdhck` aq#mod edm epop rhnk}k`en }qhano jhq @gkde kd e oq}ekd podpo$ Kd }go ckdmp hj

    @gkdopo noemoqp. e ph`kenkp} Dhq}g Ihqoe kp kdp}qcod}en kd ioorkdf e aened`ohj rhvoq kd Dhq}goep} Epke edm `hnm gkdmoq }go }qodm eve{ jqhc ph`kenkpc}ge} kp prqoemkdf e`qhpp Oep} Epke edm }ge} kp rqhm`kdf e ae`inepg efekdp}@gkdopo kmohnhfk`en nofk}kce`{ 'P`haonn 1221. 167;+$ Chqo kcrhq}ed}. @gkde

    kp dh} pqo }go _dk}om P}e}op vhnm joon k} do`oppeq{ }h mozonhr `hdp}q`}kzoqone}khdp vk}g Aoklkdf kj Vepgkdf}hd p``oppjnn{ mochnkpgop enn }go qhfo`hd}qkop kd }go vhqnm. kd`nmkdf Dhq}g Ihqoe '\hdf 1220+$ Nep} a} dh}

    noep}. }go pqzkzen edm p}eaknk}{ hj Dhq}g Ihqoe echd}p }h po`qk}{. roe`o.edm hqmoq jhq }go @gkdopo ahqmoq eqoe$

    ]qemk}khden Rhnk}k`en Qone}khdp kd Jnuw]go ep}hdkpgkdfn{ jep} veqckdf hj qone}khdp ao}vood Aoklkdf edm Pohn edm

    }go moe}g hj Ikc Kn#pdf rne{om io{ qhnop kd `hhnkdf mhvd }go `nhpo @gkde#Dhq}g Ihqoe qone}khdp kd }go {oeqp aojhqo 1222$ Ej}oq Ikc Lhdf#kn zkpk}om Aoklkdfe} }go odm hj Ce{ 1222. }go }vh pkmop qone}khdpgkr fqemenn{ veqcom r$

    Ghvozoq. }go d`noeq `qkpkp edm }go eqqop} kd @gkde hj [edf Akd 'kccomke}on{ej}oq Dhq}g Ihqoe gem eddhd`om gkp errhkd}cod} ep fhzoqdhq hj }go Pkdklpro`ken emckdkp}qe}kzo qofkhd+ mochdp}qe}om hd`o efekd }go je`} }ge} @gkde#

    MRQI qone}khdp eqo dhv jqefkno edm `ed dh nhdfoq qo}qd }h }gokq gkfg rhkd}

    hj }go 5;?2p edm 5;:2p. vgod }go hnmoq fodoqe}khd hj noemoqp vep kd rhvoq$]gokq }qemk}khden `nhpo }kop eqo `noeqn{ je`kdf drqo`omod}om `gennodfop kd

    ah}g }gokq kd}oqden p{p}ocp edm }gokq jhqokfd rhnk`kop$Aofkddkdf kd Dhzocaoq hj 1221. @gkdopo jhq}g#fodoqe}khd noemoqp `eco

    }h rhvoq. a} }go dov }hr @gkdopo noemoq. G Lkd}eh. mkm dh} coo} Ikc Lhdf#

    kn d}kn Erqkn hj 122=$ Hp}odpkan{. k} vep dh} }go noemoqp kd}od}khd }h mkpqr}}go chcod}c hj }go jod`o#codmkdf rqh`opp9 kdp}oem k} gep aood }go d`noeqkppo }ge} ioorp }goc ereq}. e} noep} e} }go }hr noemoqpgkr nozon$5 G Lkd}eh

    cp} gezo }ghfg} }ge} kj go co} Ikc Lhdf#kn kd 1220 e} }go `nkcew hj d`noeqmoemnh`i. aojhqo enn req}kop `hd`oqdom `hnm pk} mhvd poqkhpn{ }h owrnhqo

    rhppkano h}`hcop. }go coo}kdf vhnm nkion{ gezo eqhpom `qk}k`kpc jqhc}go _dk}om P}e}op edm h}goq cocaoqp hj }go kd}oqde}khden `hccdk}{ jhqerroepkdf Dhq}g Ihqoe. edm k} vhnm enph gezo cemo k} eviveqm jhq }go }vhnoemoqp }h }h`g rhd }go pk}e}khd$

    5 E``hqmkdf }h phco qorhq}p. Ikc Lhdf#kn rneddom }h zkpk} @gkde e} }go odm hj Mo`ocaoq kd 1221a}. ao`epo hj }go d`noeq `qkpkp. @gkde mo`nkdom gkp zkpk}$ Aoklkdf mkmd} hjjk`kenn{ emck} }h p`g eqouop}. no} enhdo }go `ed`onne}khd9 e} e qofneq rqopp hdjoqod`o e} @gkdep Ckdkp}q{ hj Jhqokfd Ejjekqphd 50 Mo`ocaoq 1221. prhioproqphd Nk Lked`geh modkom e qorhq} }ge} Ikc Lhdf#kn vhnm zkpk} @gkde$

    Hapoqzoqp aonkozom. ghvozoq. }ge} Ikc Lhdf#kn vhnm epi jhq p`g e zkpk} ao`epo go gem rqekpomgkfgn{ }go @gkdopo o`hdhck` qojhqc edm ved}om }h noeqd chqo eah} k}9 }go d`noeq `qkpkp enphvhnm rpg gkc }h pooi prrhq} hj @gkdopo noemoqp$

  • 8/3/2019 Chinas Role in the Course of North Koreas Transition

    7/20

    007 E Dov Kd}oqde}khden Odfefocod} Jqecovhqi jhq Dhq}g Ihqoe8

    Hj hqpo. }go ow`gedfop hj zkpk}p e} h}goq nozonp pooc }h gezo hd}kdom ep

    pen jqhc 1221 d}kn }hme{$ A} }ghpo jhqcen zkpk}p enph qojno`}om e ikdm hjm{deck` `gedfo kd }go qone}khdpgkr ao}vood Aoklkdf edm R{hdf{edf$ ]go{

    voqo dh} `hdm`}om hdn{ }h jhp}oq }qemk}khden jqkodmpgkr$ Kdp}oem. }go{ voqochqo `od}oqom hd emlp}kdf qone}khdp edm hd emzkpkdf Dhq}g Ihqoe hd hzoq#enn rhnk`{ }qedpjhqce}khd edm hd }go d`noeq kppo$

    Mqkdf }go ne}o H`}haoq 1220 }qkr }h R{hdf{edf hj @gkdep po`hdm kd hc#

    cedm. V Aedffh. V qok}oqe}om }go jhq rhkd}p rqkd`krnop hd }go mozon#hrcod} hj @gkde#Dhq}g Ihqoe qone}khdp9 pkcrnkjkom. }go rqkd`krnop eqo kdgoq#k}kdf }qemk}khd. je`kdf }go j}qo. fhhm#dokfgahqnkdopp edm jqkodmpgkr. edm

    p}qodf}godkdf `hhroqe}khd$ ]gopo rqkd`krnop eqo dh} dov kd jhqce}. a} }goqokd}oqrqo}e}khd kcrnkop phco dov mkqo`}khdp