Food Nutrition in Eastern and Southern Africa

Agriculture Productivity Drivers

Christopher AurichtAustralian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)

10th September 2012, Nairobi

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data1. Agriculture Productivity Drivers

Characteristics of the regionResources Population, crops and livestock

ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs

Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow

Port travel times & costs

Terrain, Demography,

Infrastructure, Admin Units

ProductionEnvironment &

Constraints

ProductionSystems &

Performance

Interventions/Responses

Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoffAdministrative Units Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed Wheat

Crop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person

NA

010

2030

40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

100 80 60 40 20 0

IrrigationThreshold

% of AvailableSoil Water

MaizeYield

Potentialt[DM]/ha

Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha

Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits

Linkage toMacroModels

Aggregate to FPUs

Source: HarvestChoice 2010

3

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data2. Broad directions and drivers

OPPORTUNITY COSTS of resources (especially land) and labour shape farm household decision making and evolution of systems (Binswanger, Pingali)

In turn these are influenced by:• population, hunger and poverty• natural resources and climate• technology and science• energy• markets and trade• information and human capital• institutions and policies

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDrivers – population, hunger, poverty

Gradual increase of population for centuries, until 1950, then rapid increase; + 30 percent over past decade (with shocks from disease and famine)

Urbanisation

Distribution of hunger and poverty (maps)

Incomes/livelihood portfolios

Gender

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – natural resources, climate

Claims of ample resources, but

Limited water so far exploited

Degradation

Closing of quality land frontier

Rapid deforestation

Climate change – precipitation, temperature; variability/risk)

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – energy

  Limited growth in energy inputs (refer Binswanger, Pingali; McIntyre)

Linkages/correlations oil, fertilizer and food prices

Intensification requires energy

Local/renewable options?

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDrivers – markets, trade

Spread of agricultural markets/infrastructure

Poor but improving market integration

Vertical integration especially in high potential

Foreign capital

Past focus on exports; growing potential for regional trade

CattleBuffaloPigs

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District DataDriver – information, human capital

 New knowledge is essential for households to make good decisions on adoption, marketing adjustments, ... (capacity building)

Good example, Kenya ...

CattleBuffaloPigs

(Source: Dixon 2005)

Figure 4: Cattle Buffalo and Pig Population Density Per 100 Peoplein 1998/99, Based on District Data3. Farming systems - informed interventions

Many assessments of African resource management, commodity and agricultural sector, but …

Low productivity and rural food insecurity and poverty persist

Strong differentiation of farming systems and farm-households’ potentials and needs

Understanding farm-household decision making for essential for fostering innovation and accelerating adoption/adjustment