chris coughlin - bsaconventions.org coughlin evp and group president, the timken company & abma...
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Chris CoughlinEVP and Group President,
The Timken Company &
ABMA Chairman
BSA 2017 Convention
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ABMA’s primary mission is to provide
leadership in the United States to address
issues impacting the bearing industry.
ABMA Mission
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• Abbott Ball Company
• Accurate Bushing
Company, INC
• American Roller
Bearing
• Atlantic Bearing
Services
• Baldor Dodge
• Bearings
Manufacturing
Company
• Coorstek Inc
• Hoover Precision
Products
• Koyo Corporation
• Nachi Technology
• Nakanishi
Manufacturing
• New England
Miniature Ball
• New Hampshire Ball
Bearings
• NN, Inc.
• NSK Corporation
• NTN Bearing
Corporation of
America
• Precision Enterprises
• Regal Beloit
• Rexnord
• Schaeffler Group USA
• SKF USA, Inc.
• Standard Locknut LLC
• The Timken Company
• Universal Bearings
LLC
Primary Members
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• Ajax Rolled Ring &
Machine
• Aubert & Duval
• Charter Steel
• Gravotech
• Greer Steel
• Latrobe Specialty
Metals, A Carpenter
Company
• Leech Carbide
• Ovako North America,
Inc
• PARTsolutions
• REM Surface
Engineering
• Rotor Clip Company
• Sentient Science
• Specialty Ring
Products, Inc.
• Specialty Steel
Treating
• Sullivan Steel Service
• TATA STEEL
• Universal Stainless
and Alloy Products,
Inc.
• Worthington Industries
Associate Members
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• North America Industry Statistics
• 1Q Business Environment
• Long-term Trends Affecting the Bearing
Industry.
Today’s Topics
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• 2016 Was a Very Difficult Year for the Bearing Industry
within the United States.
• Quarter to Quarter comparisons for 2016 vs. 2015 Show
Production Was Down in the 7-10% Range.
• It Was a Broad Based Reduction Across Most Product
Ranges With Only the Automotive Industry Holding its
Ground.
• Imports Significantly Outpaced Exports. 4Q Imports
Were 80% Higher than Domestic Production.
Executive Summary for 2016 Statistics
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US Bearing Production
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Q1 1
994
Q1 1
995
Q1 1
996
Q1 1
997
Q1 1
998
Q1 1
999
Q1 2
000
Q1 2
001
Q1 2
002
Q1 2
003
Q1 2
004
Q1 2
005
Q1 2
006
Q1 2
007
Q1 2
008
Q1 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q1 2
016
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
an
ge
Quarter v. Quarter Year AgoTotal Bearings Market - ABMA Estimates
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US Bearing Production
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
Q1
19
94
Q1
19
95
Q1
19
96
Q1
19
97
Q1
19
98
Q1
19
99
Q1
20
00
Q1
20
01
Q1 2
002
Q1
20
03
Q1
20
04
Q1
20
05
Q1
20
06
Q1
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q1
20
15
Q1
20
16
US
D in
Millio
ns
Total Domestic Production - ValueTotal Bearings Market - ABMA Estimates
Total Shipments
3 Months Moving Avg (3mma)
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US Production by Bearing Type
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1
199
4
Q1
199
5
Q1
199
6
Q1
199
7
Q1
199
8
Q1
199
9
Q1
200
0
Q1
200
1
Q1
200
2
Q1
200
3
Q1
200
4
Q1
200
5
Q1
200
6
Q1
200
7
Q1
200
8
Q1
200
9
Q1
201
0
Q1
201
1
Q1
201
2
Q1
201
3
Q1
201
4
Q1
201
5
Q1
201
6
US
D i
n M
illio
ns
Domestic Production by Product Lines - ValueABMA Estimates
Ball Bearings Tapered Roller Bearings Other Roller Bearings Mounted
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• North America Industry Statistics
• 1Q Business Environment
• Long-term Trends Affecting the Bearing Industry
Today’s Topics
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• Off-Highway Markets Have Clearly Turned
• OE service leading the way.
• Original equipment builds improving, but still low.
• Industrial Distribution Demand is Improving
• Metals, mining, and general industrial improving.
• Energy Improving as Well
• Oil & Gas has turned off very low levels
• Coal has stabilized, but long-term future uncertain
• Bearing Companies are Cautiously Optimistic in
Public Comments.
Q1 2017 Environment
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• North America Industry Statistics
• 1Q Business Environment
• Long-term Trends Affecting the
Bearing Industry
Today’s Topics
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• Mega-Trends
• Electrification of the Powertrain
Trends Affecting Bearing Industry
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Mega Trends - Urbanization
Driving Long-term Growth inMany Industries
• Rail
• Construction
• Mining
• Metals
• Energy
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Mega Trends – Energy Efficiency
A Dynamic “Bearing” Environment
• Emission reduction affecting equipmentdesigns in terms of weight / efficiency
• Renewables continue to gain traction andare on long-term growth trend.
• Areas such as coal appear to be under long-term pressure.
• Government policy a major variable
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Mega Trends – Globalization
Increasing Operational Complexity
• Increased channel complexity
• High variability with regards to equipment designs
• Globalization of manufacturing creates various challenges
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Mega Trends – Digitalization
A Major Long-term Impact
• Affects product design in terms of sensing capability and integration into systems
• High impact on manufacturing process in terms of connectivity and automation
• Integration bearing manufacturers into supply chains, customers, and channels will continue to increase.
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Electrification of the Powertrain
• Wide ranging consensus that this trend is real and will have a large long-term impact.
• Automotive industry is leading the way.
• Large impact on equipment design and associated components.
• Long-term, not confined to automotive. Many principles are equally applicable to industrial equipment
• A long-term issue for all bearing producers
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Bearings and Their Lubrication• May 21, 2017 – STLE Annual Meeting
• Atlanta, GA
Advance Concepts of Beating Technology• June 19-22, 2017
• Oakbrook, IL
Essential Concepts of Bearing Technology• August 22-24, 2017
• Oakbrook, IL
Advance Concepts: Lubrication and Wear • Fall 2017
• Location TBD
Continuing Education
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On Behalf of All ABMA Members, I Would Like to
Thank the BSA Organization for the Opportunity to
Present Our Industry This Morning.
And We Greatly Appreciate the Support of Our
Distribution Partners Who Help Us Bring Our
Products and Services to Market.
Closing Comments