chris rasmussen, elms hq, copenhagen
TRANSCRIPT
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Chris Rasmussen, ELMS HQ, Copenhagen
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22
71
1513
25
26% of sales
0.4% of sales
30% of sales
41% of sales
3% of sales
Sales* US$ 275bn - GGR US$ 110 bn - Good Causes: US$ 80bn
The World Lottery Community, background
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2012 over 2011
2011 over 2010
The WLA quarterly sales indicator
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The international betting market
• Lotteries
• European bookmakers
• Asian bookmakers
• Illegal betting
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The international betting market
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1000
875
750650
600520
400 400 360300 290 290
200 200 190 170
TOP 15 of the sports betting companies in the worldGross Win 2011 offline + online (in €m)
Sources : Survey Sorbonne + CK Consulting(horse and greyhound betting not included)
Lotteries
Pure players (internet)
Bookmakers
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The international betting market
• Illegal betting market
• Worth from €365bn pr. year to €1.000bn pr. year
Sources CK Consulting, Sportradar, BBC and Patrick Jay, Director of Trading, Hong Kong Jockey Club.
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What are the lotteries doing
• Partnerships with AIPS
• Education programme with Sportaccord
• Monitoring odds movements and betting markets
• Partnerships IOC, FIFA, UEFA
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What are the lotteries doing
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Monitoring betting markets
Max Bet Limits
True Price Knowledge
• Understanding differences between possible scenarios and impossible ones
Understand Odds Movement
Spot Unusual Odds Movement
Spot One Sided Lines Offered
Monitor Betting Limit Changes
Understand Professional Gambler
Activity
• Establishes the realm of possibility for both before and during the match
• To quickly prevent unwanted risk• To pay closer attention to outcome and
customers in such instances
• In a potentially fixed match, often the bookmaker is trying to minimise liability by offering very short odds on likely outcome.
• Reduced limits can also be an indication bookmakers are trying to keep losses to a minimum.
• Some similar practices can occur for treatment of professional gamblers. Important to know the difference.
Trader Analysis Reasons & Benefits
Odds Movement
Market History
Market Behaviour
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Monitoring betting markets
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Monitoring betting markets
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Monitoring betting markets
• Lotteries - 10-30.000 events pr. year
• European bookmakers – 30.000-60.000 events pr. year
• Asian bookmakers +50.000 events pr. year
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Example of possible manipulation
Calculated odds: Start odds (95% payout) 9.50-5.28-1.32Odds: 9.50-5.25-1.32
Calculated odds: 80 minute (95% payout) 12.75-1.46-3.43Odds: 80. minute 34.00-2.10-1.72
Calculated odds 88. minute: (95% payout) 23.30-1.16-6.75Odds 88. minute: 21.00-1.82-2.00
Goal in 91. minutes – result 1-2
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Monitoring betting markets
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Thank you for your attention