christophe de margerie at appea 2012 conference adealide 14may2012

7/31/2019 Christophe de Margerie at APPEA 2012 Conference Adealide 14may2012

1/12

A non-conventional energy future

Christophe de MargerieChairman & CEO

TOTAL

APPEA 2012 ConferenceAdelaide, May 14th


2/12

TOTALs LT vision of the world energy mix

Moderate growth of globalenergy demand (+25% in 20

years)

Fossil fuels = 76% of energysupply in 2030

Oil production expected tolevel off at around 96 Mb/d

Gas to become the second-largest energy source

Strong growth but limitedcontribution of new energies

Solar : +15% CAGR

Biofuels : +5% CAGR

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

280.0

300.0

320.0

340.0

100

300

200

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Biomass

Solar, wind, others

Gas

Coal

30%

24%

22%

6%

11%

3%4%

33%

22%

26%

6%

10%

2%

31%

23%

24%

6%

11%

3%2%

2010 2030(e)2020(e)

Mboe/d

81%76%

Source: Total, as of feb. 2012

2


3/12

Unconventional resources are key for our industrys future

~3,500 Bboe

oil shale

extra heavy oil

unrisked tight oil

Yet to findand increased recovery rate

Identified resources

35

100

80

~2,500 Bboe

50

130

Already produced

80

Oil resources Gas resources

Years of productionat current pace

Unconventional resources

unrisked shale &tight gas, CBM

Years of productionat current pace

3


4/12

Unconventional gasUnconventional oil Conventional gasConventional oil

(*) excluding oil shales

Oil 2350 Gboe (*) Gas 2500 Gboe

Conventional Unconventional Conventional Unconventional

70% 30% 49% 51%

Unconventional oil and gas rebalancing resources geographicaldistribution

NorthAmerica

Europe

Middle East

FSU

AsiaAfrica

SouthAmerica

% : repartition of conventional and unconventional reserves and resources per region

4


5/12

Growth in global gas demand (+2.5% per year between 2010-2020)led by a booming Asian market (+6.2% per year)

Increase of gas consumption

in the North Americanenergy mix, moderated byenergy efficiency programs

LNG imports/exportsto remain marginal

North America Europe Asia

Gas demand+1.8% CAGR

10 20(e)

Domestic supply Pipeline imports Existing LNG contracts


10 20(e)


Bcf/d

10 20(e)

Demand driven by power

generation, especially inEastern Europe and Turkey

Gas, best alternative (versusnuclear or coal) to meetincreasing energy needs

China as a new driver

of LNG demand

Real but limited globalimpact of Fukushimaaccident

30

60

90

Bcf/d

30

60

90

Bcf/d

30

60

90

5


6/12

LNG, a growth market with increase in demand = +5%per year between 2010-2020

Strong LNG demand in bothtraditional and emerging markets

Asian market particularly strong

Complexity of LNG projectsincreasing tensions on supply

Tightening markets supportiveof gas prices in Europe and Asia

Large capital requirements neededto match LNG demand

Global LNG supply / demand

Existing facilities

Approved projects

Asiandemand

Otherdemand

400

200

Mt/y

600

LNG supply

LNG nominal capacities

2005 2010 2015(e) 2020(e) 2025(e) 2030(e)

~15

~50

~100

LNG supply based onother identified projects

6


7/127

Australias LNG industry is changing scale, to becomethe worlds largest LNG exporter by 2017/18

Source: Woodmac

$35B

$45B

$16B

$25B

$26B

Large resource potential

and favourable location toserve the Asian market

Projects under constructionto increase fourfold theAustralian LNG production

capacity by 2016-2018

A major industrial andhuman challenge

Project costs and operating

costs shall be kept undercontrol to remain competitiveversus other LNG exportingcountries

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

mm

tpa

Qatari capacity

operating Under construction

Possible speculative


8/12

Total is a global LNG actor, with large projects under way

Yamal LNG (FEED)

15 Mt/y

TOTAL: 20%

Ichthys

8.4 Mt/y

TOTAL: 24%

As of 31/12/2011

8


9/12

Angola LNG (13.6%) GLNG (27.5%)

Three LNG projects under development

Start-up: 1H12

Capacity: 5.2 Mt/yof LNG

Start-up: 2015

Capacity: 7.2 Mt/y of LNG

Upstream LNG

Mt/y

Capacity8.4 Mt/y of LNG,1.6 Mt/y ofLPG

~100 kb/dof condensates

Start-upend-2016

34 B$ investment including LNG plant

LNG sold on long-term contractsindexed to oil price

Ichthys (24%)

9


10/12

CSR embedded in our strategy to be ACCEPTABLE

Ethics and human rightsat the forefront

Taking care of localcommunities

Careful environmentalstewardship

Ethics committee reportingdirectly to CEO

Anti-corruptionandcompliance programs

Human RightsInternal Guide

Active member of GlobalCompact LEAD

Minimizing environmentalimpact (air, water, soil)

Limiting green house gasemissions

Improving energyefficiency

Reducing flaring

Working togetherwith local stakeholders

Being a local actor, wherever weare

Listening to local communitiesand entertaining a real dialog withthem

Emphasizing local content

Volume of gas flared

Msm3/d

10


11/12

Making non-conventional developments acceptable

We have to understand and to address a widespread feeling ofdistrust towards energy companies

A global issue

Severe accidents in the recent past: Fukushima, Macondo

Critics and fears towards technologies used in new hydrocarbon

developments: deep offshore, shale gas, oil sands...

Gas developments in Australia need to be better understood

Number and size of projects will inevitably have an impact

The industry must

Better communicate about the projects Treat industrial safety and environmental stewardship as top priorities

Identify potential nuisance, mitigate them and enter into a sinceredialog with the communities concerned

11


12/12

A non-conventional energy future

Christophe de MargerieChairman & CEO

TOTAL

APPEA 2012 ConferenceAdelaide, May 14th

christophe de margerie at appea 2012 conference adealide 14may2012

Documents