Christopher KeaneAmerican Geosciences Institute

23 May 2012

First Geoscience Century

Driven on resource development to support economic development

Second Geoscience Century

Still about resource development

Now about stewardship, efficiency, adaptation, transition bridging…

Quantity and Quality of Supply

What are the Future Jobs

Case Examples of Self-Defeat

Opportunities and Challenges

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,00019

56

1958

1960

1962

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1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

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1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Stud

ents

Year

US Geoscience Enrollments1955-2011

Undergraduate

Graduate

Source: AGI's Directory of GeoscienceDepartments

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,00019

7319

7419

7519

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

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0020

0120

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0820

0920

1020

11

Degr

ees A

war

ded

Year

US Geoscience Degrees Granted1973-2011

Bachelor's

Master's

Doctorate

Exporting geoscience talent

Has domestic demand butexports talent

Largely is pr nt talent domestically

United States: 250,000 geoscientists

Russia: 80,000 geoscientists

Europe: 60,000 geoscientists

China: 40,000 geoscientists

Canada: 30,000 geoscientists

Africa: ~15,000 geoscientists

South America: Unknown

Middle East: Unknown Iraq: 5,000

India: Unknown

The pews are full, but are the lights on?

508512 514 516 518 518 515 515

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009

All Test Takers

Biology

Chemistry

Physics

Geology, Earth or Space Science

Source: AGI Geoscience WorkforceProgram, data derived from the College Board College-Bound Seniors, Total Group Report, 1996-2009

497494 494 493

450

460

470

480

490

500

510

520

530

2006 2007 2008 2009

All Test Takers

Biology

Chemistry

Physics

Geology, Earth, or Space Science

Source: AGI Geoscience WorkforceProgram, data derived from the College Board College-Bound Seniors, Total Group Report, 2006-2009

JOBS

Managing waste from the development of an alternative fuel source?

Wastewater injection well development and management in support of hydrofracking doesn’t seem to have the “pop creds….”

Geo carbon sequestration… reservoir characterization

Pump storage strategies… mining engineering

Wind/solar planning… physical geography/geomorph/ surveying/land planning

Not to mention working on sustainable/environmentally effective resource development….

Its about problem solving

1

25,000 geoscientists expected to retire7

2,000 geoscience job growth by 2018 (BLS)

1

5,000 total new graduates over the next 10 years

O

r 45,000 total new graduates if you hire B.S. levelN

et deficit of over 150,000 by 2021

40,500 are expected in Environmental Engineering and Sciences as a field

What’s Driving it? Water and operations management in support of Resource Development

Government? Good will and pressure of the public? Nope.

Private sector. Yep.

Liability. They continue to pay for sins of 2+ generations ago, they don’t want those in the future

Longevity. Resource and social mixes change, so must companies

Growth. New sales are in China, India, and Africa, but they need a middle class

The future is the Consulting Industry.

Traditional industries expect only replacement demand.

They will do work for oil & gas, mining, and environmental/alt energy, etc

Over 50% of geoscientists in 2021 will work in the consulting field.

3% in academia; 26% in government (local & state)

“We see the difference in unemployment between people who invent computer technology as opposed to people who use computer technology….”

Users have an 11% unemployment rate while inventors are around 6%

- Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce

Employers want:

Solid math and applied problem solving skills

Solution-oriented focus

Employers are finding, in general:

Little to no math past Calc 2 and fine conceptual skills, but not integrative outside of science

Problem definers, not solvers

What is the “engineering” and economic

aptitude of your graduates?

Can they tell you what the problem is? Or can they tell you a reasonable, realistic

solution?

The leading complaint of employers

Because…. They are not sufficiently numerate, applied, possess an economic framework, are not mobile, and seem to be holding out for a management position

Environmental Consulting Employer has 4 positions, lots of work in water issues.

Finds 1 MS with diff eq., 3 BS in env science and little math.

MS thrives, promoted to lead projects in 3 years.

BS are left to sample collection and fired after 3 years because they are too expensive. Really doing AA level work.

7 MS graduates from a well-known midwest university – only 1 takes a job.

The employed moved 700 miles from the school.

4 unemployed unwilling to live away from a major city.

2 unemployed can’t land job because their program ≠ the needed skills portfolio

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

Environmental/Hydro

Economic Geology

Geochemistry

Geophysics

Igneous/Metamorphic

Stratigraphy/Paleo

Sedimentary Geology

Structure/Tectonics

Other

Number of Theses and Dissertations

1950-591980-89

AGI 1991

Loss of faculty in competency areas

Existing Experienced Practitioners Lull the 15-year question

W

ithout alignment to tenure/promotion, no incentive

What happens when capacity building collapses?

Best assessment is 20% of US Geoscience Activity is entrepreneurial in nature

The labor gap is FTEs, not people

Opportunity for efficiency and rewards

Solve the world’s problems through tech transfer

Sell new, economical, efficient approaches

Address issues of economic and social justice on DC/LDC gap