churn model for telecom
TRANSCRIPT
Predictive Churn Predictive Churn ModelModel
Segment 9Segment 9
20th Nov ‘ 2014
Please Observe Safety procedures and take Please Observe Safety procedures and take time to note location of nearest Fire Exitstime to note location of nearest Fire Exits
Slide: 3
Content
Definition, Objective and Scope
Modeling Process ABT Creation Variable Selection Model Iterations
Final Model – Select Variables
Model Performance
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Churn Definition, Objective & Scope
Definition – A subscriber who moves from REC base to Non-REC base in a period of one month (Performance period)
Objective – To predict probability of moving from REC base to Non-REC base over the next 1 month for each of the subscriber
Scope – REC baseSegment 9: “FEATURE PHONE + VOICE+DATA(1 Mb+) + Single S ”AON >90 days
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# of Subscribers
Total Population 6,77,367
# of Churners 48,09
Churn Rate 1.%
Start Date End Date
M2 30-JULY-14 30-AUG-14
M1 31-AUG-14 30-SEP-14
Performance Period 01-OCT-14 30-OCT-14
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Modeling Process (1/4)
Multiple CMDM tables (IN Dump, Leg-wise, Usage, Recharge etc.) are referred and daily level data is extracted for the defined time period.
ABT is created at Subscriber level from the above extracted data ~300 variables are created
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ABT Creation Variable SelectionModel Iteration
RATIO/PERCENTAGE
TOTAL
MIN, MAX
COUNT
RANK / PERCENTILE
TEMPORAL FIELDS
BINNING
MEAN, MEDIAN, MODE
ABT VariablesRaw Variables
MOU
REVENUE
SMS
VAS
RECHARGE
DECREMENT
LEG-WISE USAGES
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Modeling Process (2/4)
The variables are screened through multiple techniques (Correlation, GINI, Variable Clustering, Chi-sq. etc.) to arrive at more significant and select list of variables
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ABT Creation Variable SelectionModel Iteration
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Modeling Process (3/4)
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30 to 40 iterations are performed , with key iteration mentioned above Through selection and rejection of variables, a manageable no of variables and
desired lift is achieved through these iteration. Reds mark the variables dropped in subsequent iterations . Highlighted the red oval shows the number of variables used in a particular iteration.
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ABT Creation Variable SelectionModel Iteration
Modeling Process (4/4)
At each stage of iteration variables are removed / added basis statistical significance of variable, multicollinearity, VIF and biz importance.
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ABT Creation Variable SelectionModel Iteration
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Featured Variables and Impact on Churn
Slide: 9Business Analytics – Corporate Marketing | Confidential
In order of impact on churn
Variables Description Impact on Churn
TOT_PRR_D123_W1 Avg Recharge Amount in Month 1 Inversely Proportionate
TOT_REC_CNT_M1 No of days Since last Recharge Inversely Proportionate
TOT_PRR_W2 Ration of PRR for Last 3 days and week 1 Inversely Proportionate
Days_Since_Last_Rech Total PRR incured in week 2 Directly Proportionate
AVG_REC_AMT_M1 Recharge count in Month 1 Inversely Proportionate
Model Performance
Slide: 10Business Analytics – Corporate Marketing | Confidential
Thank you
Business Analytics – Corporate Marketing | Business Analytics – Corporate Marketing | ConfidentialConfidential
For any query or concerns please contact: Ankur Shrivastava – [email protected] or call +91-8655007666
List of Abbreviations frequently used
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Chi-square :A statistical test used for comparison of goodness of fit. In other words, the difference between observed and expected outcomeClustering :A group of elements shows similar characteristics put together giving a certain statistical inferenceCo-relation :A mutual linear relationship between any two elements without infer to causal impact.GINI Ordering/Index A statistical measurement of dispersion or inequality of populationGVC : Good value customer segment HVC : High value customer segmentLVC : Low value customer segmentMulticolinearity/VIF : A statistical event to measure the multiple relationship of predictor/independent variables and target variablePCM: Predictive Churn modelSegment -1: SmartPhone - V+D (300MB+)-SSegment -10: Data Phone - V+D (1MB+)-MSegment -11: Data Phone - V/D only-SSegment -12: Data Phone - V/D only-MSegment -13: Basic - V/D only-SSegment -14: Basic - V/D only-MSegment -2: SmartPhone - V+D (300MB+)-MSegment -3: SmartPhone - V+D (1MB+)-SSegment -4: SmartPhone - V+D (1MB+)-MSegment -5: SmartPhone - V/D only-SSegment -6: SmartPhone - V/D only-MSegment -7: Data Phone - V+D (300MB+)-SSegment -8: Data Phone - V+D (300MB+)-MSegment -9: Data Phone - V+D (1MB+)-SuHVC – Ultra high value customer segmentuLVC – ultra low value customer segment