cibc whistler investor conference corporate profile...–ngl extraction capability at 95% of plants...
TRANSCRIPT
CIBC Whistler Investor Conference
Corporate Profile
January 2014
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Forward-Looking Information
In the interests of providing Keyera Corp. (“Keyera” or the “Company”) shareholders and potential investors with information regarding Keyera,
including Management’s assessment of future plans and operations relating to the Company, this document contains certain statements and
information that are forward-looking statements or information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, and which are collectively
referred to herein as “forward-looking statements". Forward-looking statements in this document include, but are not limited to statements and tables
(collectively “statements”) with respect to: capital projects and expenditures; strategic initiatives; anticipated producer activity and industry trends; and
anticipated performance. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, as there can be no assurance that the
plans, intentions or expectations upon which they are based will occur. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, as
well as known and unknown risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, that contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts,
projections and other forward-looking statements will not occur and which may cause Keyera’s actual performance and financial results in future
periods to differ materially from any estimates or projections of future performance or results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.
These assumptions, risks and uncertainties include, among other things: Keyera’s ability to successfully implement strategic initiatives and whether
such initiatives yield the expected benefits; future operating results; fluctuations in the supply and demand for natural gas, NGLs, crude oil and iso-
octane; assumptions regarding commodity prices; activities of producers, competitors and others; the weather; assumptions around construction
schedules and costs, including the availability and cost of materials and service providers; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; credit risks;
marketing margins; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developing new facilities or projects; unexpected cost increases or
technical difficulties in constructing or modifying processing facilities; Keyera’s ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations to meet its
current and future obligations; its ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital; changes in laws or regulations or the interpretations of
such laws or regulations; political and economic conditions; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the reports and filings
made with securities regulatory authorities by Keyera. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. The forward-
looking statements contained in this document are made as of the date of this document or the dates specifically referenced herein. For additional
information please refer to Keyera’s public filings available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. All forward-looking statements contained in this document
are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
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7.8% CAGR2 in dividends per share $900MM
Approximate Growth Capital for 2013/20143
Providing Investors with Income and Growth
Keyera (TSX:KEY) – Strong History of Financial Performance
3
2 From 07/15/2003 to 12/31/13
21.9% Compound annual
TSR1
1 From 05/30/03 to 12/31/13
3 Assuming timely receipt of approvals and no construction delays
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Total Cumulative Return of $100 Investment Since 2003
KEY S&P/TSX Composite
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Large Resource Base Supports Long-Term Business Viability
Keyera - One of the Largest Midstream Operators in Canada
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2 From 07/15/2003 to 09/30/13 1 From 05/30/03 to 09/30/13
3 Assuming timely receipt of approvals
and no construction delays
• Natural gas producers require significant infrastructure to support growing natural gas activity
Liquids-rich natural gas production
• Bitumen producers require diluent handling and other logistics services
Oil sands development
Keyera Business Driver Canadian Industry Focus
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Delivering Midstream Energy Solutions Along the Value Chain
Integrated Business Lines – Superior Service Offering
5
* Includes intersegment transactions. See Keyera’s Third Quarter 2013 MD&A for a definition of Operating Margin.
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Significant Growth Investments Available and Underway
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Alberta EnviroFuels
(AEF) 2012 Acquisition
Turbo Expander at
Strachan and MBL
Alberta Diluent Terminal
(ADT) 24/7 Operations
South Cheecham Rail
and Truck Terminal
12th Storage
Cavern
Fort Saskatchewan
Condensate System
Delivering
Iso-Octane by Rail
New Gas
Gathering Pipelines
Alberta Crude
Terminal
Rimbey
Turbo Expander
Wapiti Pipelines
(2 x 90km)
Simonette
Modifications
Strachan Sulphur
Expansion
Hull, Texas
Terminal Refurbishment
New Gas
Gathering Pipelines
13th and 14th
Storage Caverns
KFS
De-ethanizer
KFS Fractionation
Expansion
4th Brine
Pond
Norlite Diluent Pipeline
to Oilsands South Cheecham
Expansion
Hull, Texas
Terminal Expansion
New Gas
Gathering Pipelines Alberta Liquids Pipeline
System (ALPS)
Simonette
Future Expansion
New Rail
Terminals
Enhancing NGL
Recoveries at Gas Plants Future Storage
Caverns
ACT Future
Expansion
Under Evaluation Under Development Operational
Cochin Pipeline
Tie-In at KFS
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Growth Projects Currently Under Development
Projects
Capital Cost
$ Millions1 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rimbey turbo expander 210
Wapiti raw gas and condensate pipelines 180
Simonette plant modifications 90
Strachan sulphur projects 65
Gas gathering pipelines 26
Fort Saskatchewan de-ethanizer 120
Alberta Crude Terminal 65
Hull Terminal refurbishment 35
Fort Saskatchewan storage projects 34
Fort Saskatchewan fractionation expansion 170
Total 995
The Largest Capital Program in Keyera’s History 7
1 Keyera’s share of estimated capital cost. See Keyera’s Q3 2013 MD&A for capital investment risks and assumptions.
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Liquids-Rich Development Expected to Drive Facility Expansions
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• Well maintained, long-life facilities
– 2.4 Bcf/d licensed gross capacity
– Keyera operates 14 of 15 plants
– NGL extraction capability at 95% of plants
• Extensive gathering systems
– ~4,000 km of 4”-12” diameter pipelines
– Capture areas create franchise regions
• Fee-for-service revenues with negligible direct commodity exposure
– Largely flow-through operating costs
• Expansion of gas processing and liquids handling capacity, as well as addition of gas gathering pipelines, expected
MONTNEY
CARDIUM
DUVERNAY
GLAUCONITE
Gathering and Processing Business Unit
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Keyera Well Positioned to Provide Services to Montney Producers
Montney – A World Class Resource
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2 From 07/15/2003 to 09/30/13 1 From 05/30/03 to 09/30/13 3 Assuming timely receipt of approvals
and no construction delays
1 Source: National Energy Board; BC Oil Gas Commission; Alberta Energy Regulator; British Columbia Ministry of Natural Gas Development
• Large portion of western Canadian natural gas production currently coming from the Montney
• Horizontal drilling / multi-stage completions enabled economic development
• Recent Montney study1 estimates marketable volumes of:
– 449 Tcf of natural gas
– 14 billion Bbls of NGLs & 1 billion Bbls of oil
• Montney a traditional sandstone/siltstone reservoir – not a shale
• Near-term focus will be liquids-rich areas such as Wapiti, Elmsworth, Simonette
• This formation expected to be the key zone underpinning west-coast LNG projects
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New Area Experiencing Significant Liquids-Rich Development
Simonette – Expanding to Handle New Gas Production
• Opening new capture area northwest of plant in Wapiti / Elmworth area activity where producers drilling liquids-rich Montney zone
• Building two 90-km pipelines; a 12-inch sour gas gathering pipeline and a 6 inch condensate pipeline
• Modifying plant to add 100 MMcf/d of processing capacity & improve condensate handling
• Pipeline capital cost ~$180 million, including inlet separation; anticipate pipelines on stream by Q2 20141
• Plant capital cost estimated at ~$90 million, including condensate stabilization; anticipate plant expansion start up in second half 20141
1 Assuming construction schedule is met.
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Producers active in area
• NuVista
• Paramount
• 7 Generations
• Sinopec Daylight
• Harvest
• Exxon Mobil
• CIOC
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Northern Duvernay Region Requires Significant Infrastructure
• Emerging natural gas resource development east of Simonette
• Initial indications are that Duvernay gas contains high levels of condensate and other NGLs
• Significant infrastructure required to develop resource
– Raw gas processing
– Condensate stabilization
– NGL mix transportation to Fort Saskatchewan
– Additional NGL fractionation
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Sources: Peters & Co. Limited ,geoSCOUT.
Northern Duvernay – Potential World Class Resource
Producers active in
Simonette/Kaybob area
• Exxon Mobil
• Athabasca Oil Corp.
• Encana
• Trilogy
• Chevron
• Shell
• ConocoPhillips
• Yoho
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Can Development be Accelerated to Take Advantage of Existing Infrastructure?
Southern Duvernay – Significant Infrastructure in Place Today
• Keyera is well positioned
– 10 plants (1.9 bcf/d processing capacity and liquids recovery)
– Extensive gathering systems in place
• Existing deep-cut capacity at Rimbey, Gilby, Strachan and Minnehik Buck Lake gas plants
• Full fractionation at Rimbey plant for plant and trucked-in NGL mix
• Access to Edmonton/ Fort Saskatchewan NGL market via pipeline from Rimbey gas plant
• Ethane from Rimbey to Alberta Ethane Gathering System (AEGS) for delivery to Alberta’s petrochemical facilities
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Sources: Peters & Co. Limited ,geoSCOUT.
Producers active in the
West Central Area:
• Encana.
• Shell
• Talisman
• Sinopec Daylight
• ConocoPhillips
• Vermilion
• Enerplus
• Bonavista
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Plant Enhancements Support Producer Netbacks 13
Enhancing Liquids Extraction at Rimbey
• Adding 400 MMcf/d turbo expander to enhance liquids extraction
– Ethane capacity 20 Mbbls/d
– Project underpinned by long-term ethane purchase agreement
– Gross capital ~$210 million
– Expected start-up in 2014
• Expansions supported by Glauconite production
• Potential to expand plant capacity with some capital investment
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Liquids Business Unit
• NGL Infrastructure is a fee-for-service business providing:
– 80,000 bbls/d of fractionation capacity at 5 locations
– Rail & truck handling facilities, including a 1,500+ rail car fleet
– 11.4 million barrels of underground storage in 12 KFS caverns plus >300,000 barrels of above ground storage
– Iso-octane production at Alberta EnviroFuels
• Marketing provides various support services including:
– Purchasing and fractionating NGL mix into spec products (propane, butane, and condensate)
– Storing NGLs as required to meet demand and operational fluctuations
– Utilizing Keyera’s integrated facilities and logistics expertise to move spec products to markets across North America
Strategically Integrated Assets at the Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan Energy Hub 14
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Oil Sands – Multi-Decade Resource1
• Canada has 3rd largest oil reserves in world; 97% are in the oil sands
• Reserve base of 168 Billion barrels recoverable represents approximately half of world oil reserves not under sovereign control
• 97% of oil sands surface area (81% of oil sands reserves) are recoverable using in-situ technology, with limited surface disturbance
Oil Sands Producers Will Require Diluent Transportation, Storage and Terminalling
Services
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1 Source: CAPP
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Providing Customers with Significant Receipt and Delivery Flexibility • Diluent transportation, storage
and terminalling services in Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan
• Connections to access all diluent streams in Alberta
• Strong service offering attracting new business:
• Kearl (Imperial Oil)
– 25-year diluent transportation services began July 2012
– 15-year storage services agreement
• Sunrise (Husky/ BP)
− Services to begin in 2014
−Storage and transportation agreement
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Keyera’s Fort Saskatchewan Condensate System
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Meeting the Growing Rail Needs of Canadian Oil Sands Producers
South Cheecham Terminal – Extending our Logistics Footprint
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• South Cheecham Rail and Truck Terminal completed in Q3, 2013
• Ownership Keyera 50%, Enbridge 50%
• Terminal capable of receiving diluent and solvents and loading dilbit and bitumen onto railcars for delivery to upgraders
• Agreements in place with Statoil and JACOS
• Gross costs of ~$124 million
• Evaluating facility expansion
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Alberta Crude Terminal – Developing Crude By Rail Loading in Edmonton Area
• 50/50 partnership with Kinder Morgan
• Access to all crude qualities from Kinder Morgan
• Project underpinned by Irving Oil
• Served by CN and CP railways
• 40,000 Bbls/d crude oil loading facilities
• Potential for up to 125,000 Bbls/d incremental capacity
• Net capital cost to Keyera of ~$65 million; anticipate online in Q2 20141
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1 Assuming construction timelines are met.
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An Opportunity to Expand our Condensate Service Offering
Norlite Pipeline – Leveraging our Condensate Infrastructure
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• Enbridge proceeding with development of Norlite pipeline, a diluent pipeline from Fort Saskatchewan to Athabasca oil sands region
• Norlite shippers may access Keyera’s condensate infrastructure in Edmonton/Fort Saskatchewan region
• In addition to pipeline capacity, shippers may need other Keyera services, such as storage and rail terminalling services
• Keyera currently evaluating its right to participate as a 30% non-operating owner
• As an owner, Keyera’s share of capex could be ~$400 million
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Adding De-ethanization at KFS
• Adding a 30 Mbbls/d de-ethanizer at Keyera’s Fort Saskatchewan Fractionation and Storage Facility (KFS)
• Project will enable fractionation of an ethane-rich stream of NGLs (C2+ mix) and increase the flexibility of KFS
• Creates specification ethane for consumption by Alberta’s petrochemical industry
• Project underpinned by a large deep basin producer
• Gross costs of ~$155 million, including pipeline connections and conversion of cavern to C2+ raw feed storage
• Expected on-stream in 2nd half 20141
1 Assuming construction schedule is met.
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Continuing to Grow our Fort Saskatchewan Energy Complex
Expanding C3+ Fractionation at Fort Saskatchewan
• Producers increasingly looking for NGL fractionation and marketing services tied to natural gas processing services
• Alberta fractionators, including Keyera’s, are operating near capacity
• Adding 35,000 Bbls/d C3+ fractionation capacity and other ancillary facilities
• Long-term agreements in place; negotiating agreements with producers for remaining capacity
• Gross project cost ~$220 million
• Anticipate online Q1 20161
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1 Assuming construction schedule is met.
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Strong Balance Sheet for Growth and Flexibility
Conservative Capital Structure
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Laddering of Maturities Reduces Financing Risk3
Key Debt Metrics
1.8 x Net debt 1 / LTM EBITDA1
11% Net debt 1 / Enterprise value2
1 Net debt was $681.0 million and is net of working capital and LTM EBITDA was $374.9 million. As at Sept 30, 2013 (adjusted for IFRS and non-GAAP measure. See Keyera’s Q3 2013 MD&A for comparable
GAAP measure). 2 Enterprise value based on January 20, 2014, closing prices: $66.76 (KEY)
3 All USD debt translated at their SWAP rate. 4 Funding of $75 million due in 2029 is expected to occur in April, 2014
$46 $97
$60
$125 $109
$60
$143
$264
$167
$75
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
$C
AD
MM
Existing Senior Notes Senior Notes4
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Fee-For-Service Business Underpins Cash Flow for Dividends
Stable and Growing Business
1 Operating margin excludes other income from production.2 Non-GAAP measure. 3 See Keyera’s Q3 2013 MD&A for a definition of operating margin and EBITDA. 4 Fee-for-service operating margin includes fees paid by Marketing to NGL Infrastructure. 5 2009 normalized to exclude $29.2 million paid out as a special dividend. 6 At September 30, 2013
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD
NGL Marketing - margin based NGL Infrastructure - fee-for-service
Gathering & Processing - fee-for-service
4
Operating Margin1,3
$ Millions
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$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD
EBITDA Dividends
EBITDA2,3,5
$ Millions
4
6 6
5
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Trading Metrics
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KEY Trading Symbols (TSX)
$66.76 Common Share Price1
$5.3 B Market Capitalization1
$6.0 B Enterprise Value1,2
79.2 M Common Shares Outstanding3
166,234 Daily Trading Volume4
$2.40 Annualized Dividend per Share (20¢/month)
3.6 % Current Dividend Yield1
61 % Payout Ratio5
1 Based on closing share price at January 20, 2014. 2 Enterprise value includes debt (as at Sept 30, 2013) less working capital
3 Basic shares outstanding at December 31, 2013. 4 Fourth quarter 2013 daily average. 5 Year-to-date as of Sept 30, 2013.
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In Summary - Our Platform for Success
• Track record of steady value creation
• Stable cash flows with demonstrated growth
• Focused strategy, disciplined approach
• Positioned to benefit from liquids-rich gas
production
• Positioned to capitalize on growth in oil sands
activities
• 2014 growth capital expected to be largest in
Keyera’s history
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For Further Information Contact: John Cobb Vice-President, Investor Relations or Julie Puddell Manager, Investor Relations 888-699-4853 [email protected]
Keyera Corp. 600, 144 – 4 Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 3N4
WWW.KEYERA.COM