The weakening of the ‘energy

efficiency revolution’

And what is needed to strengthen it.

Prof. Frank Geels (CIED)

APPCCG, London, 12th June 2014

Implementation problems in energy

efficiency policy

1) Poor uptake of Green Deal: 626 ‘live’ deals by end of 2013

instead of envisaged 10.000 (1.178 by April 2014)

2) Focus on financial barriers (upfront costs and landlord-tenant

split incentives). Ignores 20-years of research about non-

economic barriers, e.g. hassle and disruption, low motivation for

most consumers, lack of reliable advice, supply chain issues.

3) Weakening of ECO after energy price controversy

4) Realised energy/cost savings lower than calculated/advertised.

5) Diffusion of heat pumps + electric vehicles slower than

anticipated

Two broader problems in Energy Efficiency

Strategy

1) Types of solutions:

Too much focus on individual technical measures (loft insulation,

cavity wall insulation, condensing boilers).

Could benefit from more systemic solutions

Need for systemic solutions

1) New heating systems (e.g. district heating)

2) New transport systems:

Not just technical revolutions (BEV, FCV, biofuel)

But also:

- Integrated transport systems + modal shift

- Urban space innovations (transit oriented development,

densification) to reduce travel needs

3) Deep retrofit: approach the building as a system (ventilation,

heating, lighting, insulation)

2. Conceptual policy approach

Currently: Mainstream economics focus on individuals

(mostly ‘firms’ and ‘households’)

Underlies emphasis on four ‘barriers’ (DECC, 2012, Energy

Efficiency Strategy)

1. Embryonic markets

2. Information

3. Misaligned financial incentives (e.g. landlord-tenant)

4. Undervaluing energy efficiency

This approach neglects social contexts, non-economic barriers

and motivations/behaviour of real-world people

DECC recognises these problems, but

does not sufficiently act upon them

DECC, 2012, Energy Efficiency Strategy, p. 56

CIED would like to help by developing/testing new framings and

understandings that can help accelerate the energy efficiency

revolution

Three main contributions to debate:

“Currently we lack deep understanding of the complexities of what really

drives energy demand and how to change it at user and provider level. If

these complexities are to be understood, energy demand research must

adopt inter-disciplinary, multi-agency approaches to deliver

understandings of:

* The lifestyle and social drivers of the demand for energy services

* Changing technologies and how they are adopted at the point of use

* The institutional and policies framework within which technical and social

decisions are made

* The interactions between all of these.”

Wider range of ‘solutions’:

From incremental to radical/systemic change

Technologically

radical

Socially

incremental

Technologicallyincremental

Sociallyradical

Insulation (walls, glazing),

fuel-efficient conventional cars,

energy-efficiency improvementsin energy-intensive industries,adoption of energy-efficientappliances (washing machines,fridge, boiler, etc.)

Car sharing, bike sharing,

mobility demand management,workplace travel plans, energyefficiency improvements by servicecompanies, modal shift (from

cars to bicycles & public transport)

Heat pumps, LED light bulbs,electric vehicles, whole houseretrofit, district heating, companies generating their ownpower with renewable technologies, urban light-rail andsubway systems

Smart grids with decentralizedenergy production & consumption,eco-cities, intermodal transport,low-carbon houses, urban re-design, tele-conferencing, transition to digital decentralizedmanufacturing (based on 3D printers)

2. Low-energy innovation as a social

process

From ‘individuals and firms’ to wider social systems:

* Economics: Investments, prices, markets, competition

* Policy and politics: Policy goals, instruments, institutions

* Socio-cultural: Public debates, beliefs, motivations, practices

Universities (research),public and private laboratories

Firms, engineers, designers

Venture capital suppliers,banks, insurance firms

Suppliers ofmaterials, components, tools

Repair shops, spare part shops

Users,consumers

Societal groups:(e.g. NGO’s Greenpeace, consumer groups)

Public authorities:* European Commission, WTO* National government, ministeries* Local and executive branches

Comsumer markets,distribution-networks

Labourers,skilled personell

Schools,universities(education) Media (TV,

newspapers, magazines)

Design firms,technical institutes,consultancies

Production side(technical variations)

Functional/user side(selection environment)

3) Use theoretical transitions framework to

understand efficiency ‘revolutions’:Radical innovations struggling against existing systems

Landscape developments put pressure on existing regime, which opens up, creating windows of opportunity for novelties

Socio-technical regime is ‘dynamically stable’.On different dimensions there are ongoing processes

New configuration breaks through, takingadvantage of ‘windows of opportunity’. Adjustments occur in socio-technical regime.

Elements become aligned,and stabilise in a dominant design.Internal momentum increases.

Small networks of actors support novelties on the basis of expectations and visions.Learning processes take place on multiple dimensions (co-construction).Efforts to link different elements in a seamless web.

New regime influences landscape

Niche-innovations

Socio-technicallandscape (exogenouscontext)

Socio-technicalregime

Technology

Markets, user preferences

CulturePolicy

ScienceIndustry

External influences on niches(via expectations and networks)

Increasing structurationof activities in local practices

Time

CIED examples:

Light rail systems,

District heating systems

3D-printing

Urban transport systems

ESCO’s and energy services

Whole-house retrofit

TimeTime

Landscape developments put pressure on existing regime, which opens up, creating windows of opportunity for novelties

Socio-technical regime is ‘dynamically stable’.On different dimensions there are ongoing processes

New configuration breaks through, takingadvantage of ‘windows of opportunity’. Adjustments occur in socio-technical regime.

Elements are gradually linked together,and stabilise in a dominant design.Internal momentum increases.

Small networks of actors support novelties on the basis of expectations and future visions.Learning processes take place on multiple dimensions.Different elements are gradually linked together in a seamless web.

New socio-technicalregime influences landscape

Technologicalniches

Socio-technical’landscape

Socio-technicalregime

Technology

Markets, user preferences

CulturePolicy

ScienceIndustry

External influences on niches(via expectations and networks)

• Impacts: measures,

savings, feedbacks,

rebounds

• Diffusion: adoption,

increasing returns,

price/performance

improvements, social &

political support

• Emergence: learning,

experimentation, network

building, visions,

institutions

Better understanding of emergence, diffusion

& impact of radical low-energy innovation can

accelerate energy efficiency revolution