CIGRÉ Canada Panel Session - “What is Network Resiliency?”

Vancouver, BC - Wednesday, October 19th, 2016

Presented by Marc Brunet-Watson, P. Eng

Director – Power Networks - PSC North America

The Business Case for Resiliency

I won’t be talking technology

Understanding Resiliency

What is holding back investment?

Quantifying benefits of resiliency

Trying to define resiliency

Preparing for and adapting to changing conditions

– Resiliency time frames can vary from seconds to decades

– Planning horizons are becoming blurred

Withstanding and rapidly recovering from disruption

– Deliberate attack (PG&E transformers, Ukraine SCADA hack)

– Naturally occurring events (weather, earthquake)

– Regulation, technology, etc…

One measure of the resilience of any system is the speed

and return to equilibrium following a disturbance

– Time (before, initiation, duration)

– Severity

Resilience is a trajectory

Reliability versus Resiliency

They are not the same thing

– The difference increases with system complexity

Reliability is a measure of service

– Focuses on impact to grid

– Service standard is explicit and inflexible

Resiliency is related to risks & consequences

– Considers impacts beyond the grid

– Service standard is flexible and poorly defined

Direct recoveryRegulated Cap Ex

Destruction & Mayhem

Some direct recoveryRegulated Op Ex

Cost recovery at riskSocietal impact and regulated revenue

Managing risk is different than eliminating it

Will the two Rs converge?

Likelihood/probability

Consequences

Events impacting

RELIABILITY(today)

Events impacting

RESILIENCE(today)

Events impactingRELIABILITY and

RESILIENCE(future)

Aging infrastructureHigher asset utilisation

Storm severity and frequencyPhysical and cyber attacks

Resiliency is multi-faceted Transmission networks have inherent resiliency due to N-1-1, N-2, etc

Network operators have been managing risk forever

Resiliency planning requires a systems based approach

From Sandia National Laboratories Report SAND2014-18019, “Conceptual Framework for Developing Resilience Metrics for the Electricity, Oil, and Gas Sectors in the United States”, September 2015

Operations

Planning

Prepare Withstand Adapt Recover REPEAT

Natural disaster

Severe weather

Geomagnetic storms

Cyber/physical attack

EMP

System topology

Geography

Asset condition

Security culture

Health and safety

Basic service interruption

Macro-economic

Reputational

Fiscal impact

ASSESS DESCRIBE

QUANTIFY

You get the consequences you don’t pay for!

Network resiliency tool kit

Operational preparedness

• Peak readiness

• Mobile plant and stockpiles

• Restoration strategies

• Forecasting

• Standby crews and gensets

• Real time situational awareness

Hardening

• N-1-1, N-2, N-3

• Line route diversity

• Islanding

• Undergrounding cables

• Increased standards

Technology

• Micro grid

• Controllable DER

• Fault detection

• Self healing

Resiliency spending to date Operational preparedness is a mature component of resiliency

– Increasing prevalence of real-time tools

– Focus is on Adapt and Recover

Hardening is occurring – often in response to major events

– Québec and Ontario post 1998 ice-storm

• Higher standards, new equipment big spend

– Superstorm Sandy 2012

• Undergrounding and path diversity from Southern US right up to Ontario

Technology based resiliency spending has been held back – why?

– Mostly pilot and demonstration projects as technology trials

– No large scale integration as part of Business As Usual

Regulated cost recovery is made for reliability

Asset owners expect a fair return on capital in exchange for economic regulation

Regulators have required service guarantees under an agreed framework (load

growth forecast, reliability criteria)

– High probability, low impact disturbances

Postage stamp tariff

– Uniform service for all whether it is wanted or not

What about High Impact, Low Probability Events?

– Who benefits and do they care?

Little incentive for resiliency based technology spend

Quantifying the benefits of resiliency

Total Benefits = Avoided grid costs + Avoided societal costs + Societal benefits

Apply the resiliency toolkit: Operations, Hardening, Technology

Solutions must be customised to the specific threats and vulnerabilities that have

been identified

Determine the level of resiliency you want and can afford – Value of lost load

– Duration and frequency of outages

– Breakdown by customer segment

– Quantify societal costs – human toll, property destruction, etc

Benefits have to be valued by someone!

Positive externalities of a more resilient system

Improved Emergency Response

– Avoided death and injury

– Responding where/when needed

Minimised productivity loss

– Less upset to supply chains

Increased energy efficiency

Reduced client-side expenditure

– Less need for backup gensets, back-up feeders, etc

Attractive to investment

– Companies value uninterrupted supply

Cost

Benefits to grid

Societal benefits (externalities)

Look for partners

Sensitive loads may need better quality of service than reliability

standards provide

Regional development agencies may wish to attract industry that

can be supplied by weak grids if strong micro grids and controllable

DER are deployed

University campuses and hospitals really don’t like to be interrupted

Resiliency is conferred

And once you’ve got it…

Resiliency driven investments in micro grid and DER can be made

available for reliability based needs

– Easing peak congestion

– Deferring transmission investment

– Increasing asset utilisation

Could it eventually be tariff neutral?

Thank you