cis tubes and pipes forecast sample€¦ · · 2017-08-11in 2017018 (up -2 xx-xx% from 2016). ......

CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast

Tubes and pipes for oil-gas industry, building and machine-building

quarTerly reporT

May, 2017

Metal Expert

metalexpert.com

SAMPLE

http://metalexpert.com

Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 2 |

| ExECuTIvE Summary

Stabilization of oil quotes and appreciation of national currencies supported the economic growth in the CIS.

In the forecast period, there will be a recovery of consumer activity in russia, ukraine and Kazakhstan at least due to low comparison base of previous years. The steel pipe market will mostly be supported by the oil-and-gas sector on condition that producing companies fulfil their targets. a moderate rise is also expected in the construction industry amid better investment activity. Consumption of large diameter pipes will depend directly on timely financing of large pipeline projects.

ruSSIa

In 2017-2018 the capacity of the steel pipe market will change insignificantly as com-pared to last year. The figure will amount to xx-xx million t in 2017 and xx-xx million t in 2018 russian producers will supply over xx% of the required volumes.

Better investment activity in private construction and large infrastructure projects will make the capacity of the market for pipes used in construction rise to xx-xx million t in 2017-2018 (up xx-xx% from 2016).

In the oil-and-gas sector, investment plans of producing companies will contribute to a rise in OCTG consumption by at least xx-xx% to xx-xx million t in 2017-2018

Implementation of all planned projects in the pipeline segment, including regional gasification and pipeline repairs, will require about xx-xx million t of large diameter pipes and xx-xx million t of line pipes in 2017-2018.

The capacity of the mechanical tubing market is expected at xx-xx t in 2017-2018 (up xx-xx%).

uKraINE

In 2017-2018 the capacity of the steel pipe market will continue recovering. The figure will reach xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx% y-o-y) and xx-xx t in 2018 (up xx%). about xx% of demand will be covered by ukrainian mills.

Implementation of projects in housing and infrastructure development will keep sup-porting the market for pipes used in the construction sector. Consumption is forecast to increase to xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx%) and to xx-xx t in 2018.

Implementation of all plans of producing companies in the oil and gas industry in 2017-2018 will require at least xx-xx t of OCTG.

In 2017-2018 a rise in demand for large diameter pipes will be supported by planned modernization of urengoy – Pomary – uzhgorod gas pipeline and construction of Hermanowice – Bilche-volytsia gas pipeline. according to metal Expert’s estimates, consumption will amount to some xx-xx t of large diameter pipes. Considering the difficult situation at Khartsyzsk Pipe Plant, the domestic market requirements will be xx% covered by imports.

The capacity of the mechanical tubing market will amount to about xx-xx t in 2017-2018

/en/news/HtMLforecast&unid=0FA21ED2FED32818C2257FFF005E2D35Q


KaZaKHSTaN

apparent consumption of steel pipes is forecast at xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx% y-o-y) and xx-xx t in 2018. Local producers will supply no less than xx% of small- and medium-sized pipes (seamless and welded), while demand for large diameter pipes will mostly be covered by imports (xx%).

Implementation of projects for residential, non-residential and infrastructure construction and under the Nurly Zher state programme will require additional volumes of pipes used in the construction industry. The capacity of this market will increase to xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx-xx%) and to xx-xx t in 2018.

Implementation of the programmes to maintain and ramp up extraction at Kashagan, Tengiz and Karachaganak fields will give the strongest support to the oil and gas market. OCTG consumption is expected at xx-xx t in 2017-2018 (up xx%). The ca-pacity of the line pipe market will recover to xx-xx t (up xx%).

The pipeline construction segment will require about xx t of large diameter pipes (down xx%) in 2017 for regional gas infrastructure development and scheduled re-construction. In 2018 the market capacity will increase to xx-xx t, provided the start of Eskene – Kuryk oil pipeline project.


| ConTenT

exeCuTIve Summary

| ruSSIa: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST

PIPeS For ConSTruCTIon InduSTry

oCTG

LIne PIPeS

meChanICaL TubInG

| ruSSIa: SuPPLy ForeCaST

SmaLL- and medIum-SIzed weLded PIPeS

SeamLeSS PIPeS

LarGe dIameTer PIPeS

| ruSSIa: PrICe ForeCaST

PrICe ForeCaST

| uKraIne: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST


oCTG


meChanICaL TubInG

| uKraIne: SuPPLy ForeCaST


SeamLeSS PIPeS



| KazaKhSTan: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST


oCTG

LIne PIPeS

| KazaKhSTan: SuPPLy ForeCaST


SeamLeSS PIPeS


| CIS: deveLoPmenT TrendS In oIL and GaS InduSTry

Key evenTS oF rePorTInG quarTer

new ProjeCTS In oIL and GaS InduSTry

new TeChnoLoGIeS and FIeLd deveLoPmenTS auCTIonS

CIS: dynamICS oF maIn PIPeLIne ProjeCTS

CIS: major PIPeLIne ProjeCTS

| ConTenT

Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 6 |

| SuppleMeNT To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”:

Statistical service on website “metalexpert.com”№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date

1russia, ukraine

Hr strip domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week

2 ukraine pipe billets domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week

3russia, ukraine

Seamless pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week

4 CIS welded pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week5 russia Galvanized welded pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week6 CIS Hollow sections domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week

7russia, Kazakhstan

Seamless pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week

8russia, Kazakhstan

welded pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week

9 russia Galvanized welded pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week

10russia, Kazakhstan

Hollow sections stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week

11russia, Kazakhstan

Seamless pipes import prices week jan. 07 current week

12 Kazakhstan welded pipes import prices week jan. 07 current week13 Kazakhstan Hollow sections import prices week jan. 07 current week14 russia Seamless pipes export prices week jan. 07 current week

15russia, ukraine

welded pipes export prices week jan. 07 current week

16russia, ukraine

Hollow sections export prices week jan. 07 current week


| MoNTHly STaTISTICal SuppleMeNT To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”

№ Country Table name periodStarting date xls-

supplement

Starting date on website

Final date

1 russiarussia: pipe production and shipments structure, ‘000 tonnes

month jan.15 jan. 04 last month

2 russiarussia: estimated billet consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes

month jan.15 - last month

3 russiarussia: estimated strip consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes


4 russiarussia: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes


5 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes


6 russiarussia: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes


7 russiarussia: line pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes


8 russiarussia: drill pipes market balance, ‘000 tonnes


9 russiarussia: tubing market balance, ‘000 tonnes


10 russiarussia: casing market balance, ‘000 tonnes


11 russiarussia: stainless pipe & tube market balance, ‘000 tonnes


12 russiarussia: boiler tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes


13 russiarussia: bearing tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes


14 russiarussia: pipes for construction industry market balance, ‘000 tonnes


15 russiarussia: structure of tube & pipe supply from mills


16 ukraineukraine: pipe production and shipments structure, ‘000 tonnes


17 ukraineukraine: estimated billet consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes


18 ukraineukraine: estimated strip consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes


19 ukraineukraine: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes


20 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes


21 ukraineukraine: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes


22 ukraineukraine: drill pipes market balance, ‘000 tonnes


23 ukraineukraine: tubing market balance, ‘000 tonnes


24 ukraineukraine: casing market balance, ‘000 tonnes


25 ukraineukraine: stainless pipe & tube market balance, ‘000 tonnes


26 ukraineukraine: boiler tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes



№ Country Table name periodStarting date xls-

supplement

Starting date on website

Final date

27 ukraineukraine: bearing tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes


28 ukraineukraine: pipes for construction industry market balance, ‘000 tonnes


29 ukraineukraine: structure of tube & pipe demand


30 KazakhstanKazakhstan: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes


31 KazakhstanKazakhstan: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes


32 KazakhstanKazakhstan: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes


33 CISCIS: tube & pipe production and consumption, ‘000 tonnes


34 worldlargest pipes importing countries, ‘000 tonnes

month jan.15 jan. 06 - 2 month

35 worldlargest pipes exporting countries, ‘000 tonnes


36 world eu: pipe import-export, ‘000 tonnes month jan.15 jan. 06 - 2 month

37 worldMiddle east: pipes import-export, ‘000 tonnes


38 world uSa: pipes import-export, ‘000 tonnes month jan.15 jan. 06 - 1 month

39 worldGeography of supplies from largest exporting countries, ‘000 tonnes


*Data on imports by key suppliers is available in the Excel supplement only *Market balance with imports detailed by large suppliers is given only in excel supplements


| quarTerly STaTISTICal SuppleMeNT* To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”

№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date

1 CISCIS: forecast of key market indices in 2017-2018

year 2015 next year forecast

2 CISCIS: basic indices of pipe market, % of the previous quarter

quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast

3 CISCIS: forecast of pipe production capacities, ‘000 tonnes*


4 CISCIS: production capacities utilization in major segments of pipe market

quarter last quarter current quarter

5 CIS CIS: pipe market results of 2017q1 quarter current quarter

6 CISCIS: pipe consumption and parameters of consuming industries development

quarter y-o-y current quarter

7 russiarussia: pipe market segments results of 2017q1

quarter current quarter

8 russia russia: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast

9 russiarussia: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes


10 russiarussia: import share in seamless pipe consumption, by type

year to date

11 russiarussia: import share in welded pipe&tube consumption, by type

year to date

12 russiarussia: pipe market forecast, by type, '000 tonnes


13 russiarussia: regional consumption of line pipes d>16", '000 tonnes


14 russiarussia: regional consumption of small- and medium-sized pipes (seamless and welded), '000 tonnes


15 russia russia: steel pipe consumption, by industries year to date

16 russiarussia: pipes for construction industry consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


17 russiarussia: oCTG consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


18 russia russia: seamless oCTG imports, '000 t year to date

19 russiarussia: line pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


20 russiarussia: mechanical tubing consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


21 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


22 russiarussia: seamless pipes consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


23 russiarussia: structure of tube & pipe producers in the regions in 2017q1


24 russiarussia: main sales markets for pipe exporters in 2017q1*


25 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section supply forecast, '000 tonnes


26 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section exports,'000 tonnes

year to date

27 russiarussia: seamless pipes supply forecast, '000 tonnes


28 russia russia: seamless pipes import-export, '000 t year to date

29 russiarussia: line pipes d>16" supply forecast, '000 tonnes


30 russia russia: line pipes d>16" exports, '000 tonnes year to date


№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date

31 russiarussia: price forecast for small- and medium-sized welded pipes*

month jan. 15 18 month forecast

32 russiarussia: new welded pipes small&medium section production capacities

current projects

33 russiarussia: new line pipes d>16" production capacities

current projects

34 ukraineukraine: pipe market segments results of 2017q1


35 ukraineukraine: main sales markets for pipe exporters in 2017q1*


36 ukraine ukraine: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast

37 ukraineukraine: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes


38 ukraineukraine: import share in pipe consumption, by type, '000 tonnes

year to date

39 ukraineukraine: pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


40 ukraineukraine: seamless oCTG imports, '000 tonnes

year to date

41 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section supply forecast, '000 tonnes


42 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section exports,'000 tonnes

year to date

43 ukraineukraine: seamless pipes supply forecast, '000 tonnes


44 ukraineukraine: seamless pipes import-export, '000 tonnes

year to date

45 ukraineukraine: line pipes d>16" supply forecast, '000 tonnes


46 ukraine ukraine: pipe market prices month jan. 11 last month

47 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast

48 KazakhstanKazakhstan: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes


49 KazakhstanKazakhstan: pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes


50 KazakhstanKazakhstan: steel pipes imports, by type, '000 tonnes

year to date

51 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan: pipe market prices month jan. 11 last month

52 CISGlobal pipes trade and shares of CIS suppliers

quarter y-o-y last quarter

53 CIS CIS: major gas pipeline projects current projects54 CIS CIS: major oil pipeline projects current projects55 CIS CIS: major oil products pipelines projects current projects56 CIS CIS: major products pipeline projects current projects

57 CISNew projects in oil and gas industry: onshore field

current projects

58 CISNew projects in oil and gas industry: offshore fields

current projects

*provided as xls-supplement only


| MeTHodoloGy


MeTHodoloGy |

Sources

• information obtained directly from market participants, including daily monitoring of prices

• official reports and forecasts of related ministries and other authorities, mar-ket-makers

• national statistic bodies

• customs and railway statistics

• steel product manufacturers and traders

data evaluation methods

• information on prices coming from market participants is verified through several sources; actual wholesale prices are provided as a result

• statistic data on production and commodities flows is provided by manufacturers; the data is complemented and verified through third-party databases as well as by means of using estimates of the related ministries and authorities of russia (State Statistic Committee, Ministry of economy and development, agency for Housing Mortgage lending, etc.)

• statistic data on regional shipments (for russia only) is based on analysis on deliveries by rail through russian railways database

• information on existing capacities and expansion plans is obtained directly from producers

Forecasting methods

1. apparent consumption forecast

The estimate of apparent consumption in the forecasting periods is based on analysis of development outlook in the country’s major consuming industries – construction, oil and gas, machine-building, chemical, oil refining.

as forecasting indicators Metal expert uses target figures from ministries and agencies (the Ministry of economic development of russia, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of russia, the Ministry of energy of russia, Sberbank of russia), forecasts of specialized research institutes, analytical agencies and Metal expert’s estimates.


Since forecasting indicators usually cover one-year period, the estimation of quarterly consumption is based on the traditional seasonal allocation, taking into account additional factors like implementation of government programmes, infra-structure projects, etc.

2. Supply forecast

Supply volume, to be presumably available in the market, is estimated, and then com-pared with Metal expert consumption forecast.

Supply volume is understood to mean the company aspiring to operate at the highest possible capacity and to at least keep up its share in shipments to the domestic market.

Supply forecast is made considering competitive advantages of the company and the regional distribution structure.

all calculations of utilization rates are performed taking into account the capacities launched before the beginning of the corresponding year.

pipe capacities are estimated without capacities of mothballed equipment.

Shipments of producers are calculated as the difference between total production and export in the country. Considering re-export and export from traders, amount of domestic shipments of plants may exceed total shipment of producers in the country.

3. Price forecast

The report includes the price forecast for GoST 10704(05) pipes (57-108 mm), welded hollow structural sections [mills’ prices on exw basis].

The basic price forecast is grounded on the forecast of domestic prices for Hr sheets and pipe producers’ margin over the forecast period.

producers’ price forecast is based on expected changes in margin considering sea-sonality, balance, strategies of certain producers as well as other factors and trends formed or anticipated in the market during the forecast period.

MeTHodoloGy |

This document is for information only. Global long products markets forecasts have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information is correct and the views sound, Metal Courier publication lTd cannot be made liable for any loss no matter how it may rise.

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| CIS TuBeS aNd pIpeS ForeCaST

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cis tubes and pipes forecast sample€¦ · · 2017-08-11in 2017018 (up -2 xx-xx% from 2016). ......

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