cisn earthquake early warning uc berkeleycaltechscec/usc u.s. geological survey real-time testing of...
TRANSCRIPT
CISN Earthquake Early Warning
UC BerkeleyCaltech SCEC/USCU.S. Geological
Survey
Real-time testing of algorithms statewide
Richard Allen, UC Berkeley
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
AlertMap0 sec
AlertMap+2 sec
ShakeMap+ minutes
Continuum of earthquake information:1. Initial trigger
2. Rapid magnitude, early MMI observations
3. Post earthquake information
CISN statewide testing Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm testing
August 2006 – July 2009
Algorithms:
3. ElarmS – network approachUC Berkeley
2. Virtual Seismologist – network approachCaltech
1. Onsite warning – single stationCaltech/U. Taiwan
4. …others?
Algorithm implementation for a
statewide system
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
waveform processing
seismic networks
what we plan to do…
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
waveform processing
Hub locations:• UC Berkeley• USGS Menlo• Caltech
seismic networks
what we plan to do…
waveform processing
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
waveform processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech
• predicted ground shaking onsite
seismic networks
what we plan to do…
waveform processing
Onsite warning
output parameters
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
waveform processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech
output parameters
• location• magnitude• predicted ground shaking
everywhere
seismic networks
what we plan to do…
Virtual Seismologist
waveform processing
Onsite warning • predicted ground shaking
onsite
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
waveform processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech
• location• magnitude• predicted ground shaking
everywhere
seismic networks
what we plan to do…
Virtual Seismologist
waveform processing
ElarmS
Onsite warning
output parameters
• location• magnitude• predicted ground shaking
everywhere
• predicted ground shaking onsite
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
Year 1: Initial real-time outputs from EEW algorithms
Year 2: Adding uncertainty estimates; website display
Year 3: Evaluation of past and future performance
Aug ‘06
Jul ‘09
Goal: evaluation of early warning methodologies in real-time
specifications for implemented early warning system • equipment requirements
(stations)• telemetry• processing
Earthquake early warning
JapanTaiwan
Mexico
Turkey
Romania
Italy
Greece
India
United States
Operational systemsSystems under developmentaround the world
around the world
Current applications of early warning
Istanbul
• Electric power plant
• High rise building (bank)
Taiwan
• Rail system
• Hospital
Mexico and Oaxaca Cities users
• Private industry 28• Schools 84• Housing complex 1• TV/Radio stations 34 • Government offices 94• Subway 4
Japan
• Rail/Metro systems
• Fire/rescue organizations
• In home information; door/window opening; utility shut-off
• Elevator control
• Outdoor works
• Factories
• Power plants
• Hospitals
Potential applications of early warning in California
Industry Chemical plants, biotech, manufacturing, construction
isolate systems, move to a safe/hold mode reduced damage and faster business resumption
TransportationMetro, BART, airports, highways (?)
slow and stop
UtilitiesElectric, gas, water
more rapid system management, reduce cascading failures
Personal ProtectionSchools, offices, warehouses, homes
duck and cover command before shaking evacuation of dangerous single story buildings
In the future…Active response buildings and…
We are looking for partners…
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
“Alarm time”
4 sec of data at 4 stations
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
AlertMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
ShakeMap
Santa RosaAugust 2, 2006Magnitude 4.4
Warning time: 11 sec 29 sec
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
event processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech• other…?
control interface
earthquake parameters• ground shaking
• location• magnitude• predicted
ground shaking
seismic network
actions
CISN end user: not part of current CISN testing plan
Potential applications of early warning in California
Industry Chemical plants, biotech, manufacturing, construction
isolate systems, move to a safe/hold mode reduced damage and faster business resumption
TransportationMetro, BART, airports, highways (?)
slow and stop
UtilitiesElectric, gas, water
more rapid system management, reduce cascading failures
Personal ProtectionSchools, offices, warehouses, homes
duck and cover command before shaking evacuation of dangerous single story buildings
In the future…Active response buildings and…
Cost Is early warning too expensive?
J acketing
Beam Cost of retrofitting buildings:
Barrows Hall: $20 mill
Barker Hall: $14 mill
Wurster Hall: $30 mill Hearst Mining: $80 mill(base isolation)
UC Berkeley SAFER program: $20 mill per year for 20 yearsSpent $900 mill so far
Cost Is early warning too expensive?
Cost of early warning:
1. The seismic network
Installation of 600 new stations: $6 - $30 mill
Network operation: $2 - $6 mill per year
2. Transmitting warning information
3. Educational program
Existing technologies: - weather radios- satellite and internet
communications- wireless networks
• Early warning response is specific to individual users• Set in broader context of earthquake preparedness
1. The most effective system: single station + network based approaches
2. Warning times: • seconds to tens of seconds • more warning for most damaging events; up to 1
minute
3. A warning would be available to many of the affected population for most earthquakes
4. Broad range of applications• reduce the loss of life• reduce injuries• reduce damage/costs• increase speed of recovery
5. The cost is not large compared to other mitigation strategies
Earthquake early warning across California
Application and benefits of
Seismic Stations
Early warning methodologies
faul
t
S-wave
P-wave
Seismic Stations
Early warning methodologies
faul
t
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
S-wave
P-wave
Seismic Stations
Early warning methodologies
faul
t
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrivalSeismic
Stations
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
Early warning methodologies
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
combine information and issue alarm everywhere
“Network approach”
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
Early warning methodologies
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival andS-wave arrival
combine information and update alarm everywhere
“Network approach”
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
faul
t
Early warning methodologies
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
Single station approach
• more rapid• greater uncertainty
use in epicentral region
Network approach
• slower for epicentral region
• more warning at greater distances
• more accurate
Use both approaches
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
event processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech• other…?
earthquake parameters• ground shaking
• location• magnitude• predicted
ground shaking
seismic network
what we plan to do…
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
event processing
Hub locations:• Berkeley• USGS• Caltech• other…?
control interface
earthquake parameters• ground shaking
• location• magnitude• predicted
ground shaking
seismic network
actions
CISN end user: not part of current CISN testing plan
Warning timesin San Francisco
• From “Alarm” time (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade
Probabilistic warning times – infrastructure upgrade• 130 stations• 2 sec telemetry• 2 stations with pT
MMI 7: moderateMMI 9: heavy damage
San Francisco
Warning timesin San Francisco
• From “Alarm” time (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade
• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland
• Single station would provide <10 sec
Loma Prieta earthquake
Northern California
Probabilistic warning times
WG02 Earthquake Probabilities
Scenario ShakeMap
WG02 Report• probabilities• ground shaking
ElarmS• warning times
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
control interface
seismic network
actions
CISN statewide testing August 2006 – July 2009
control interface
seismic network
actions
control interface
actions
control interface
actions
Seismic networks
UC Berkeley + USGS networks
UC Berkeley and
US Geological Survey
Currently provide rapid earthquake information e.g. ShakeMap
Statewide testing
UC Berkeley Caltech SCEC/USC
Implement pre-prototype system for algorithm testing
Participating Institutions:
U.S. Geological
Survey
Looking forward
Algorithms:
1. ElarmSUC Berkeley2. Virtual SeismologistCaltech3. Onsite warningCaltech/U. Taiwan4. …others?
Seismic Stations
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
faul
t
S-wave
P-wave
Seismic Stations
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
faul
t
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
S-wave
P-wave
Seismic Stations
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
faul
t
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrivalSeismic
Stations
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
What is early warning?1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival
combine information and issue alarm everywhere
“Network approach”
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
faul
t
What is early warning?
Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival andS-wave arrival
combine information and update alarm everywhere
“Network approach”
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
1st Station to detect P-wave arrival
issue alarm onsite
“Single station approach”
faul
t
What is early warning?
Seismic Stations
S-wave
P-wave
1. Rapid detection of an earthquake in progress
2. Rapid notification of observed ground shaking
3. Prediction and notification of future ground shaking
Single station approach
• more rapid• greater uncertainty
use in epicentral region
Network approach
• slower for epicentral region
• more warning at greater distances
• more accurate
Use both approaches
Loma Prieta
ABAG ground shaking
Oakland 66% fatalities
San Francisco 18% fatalities
Cypress viaduct collapse
Falling masonry
Apartment building collapse
84% of the fatalities were at distances which could
have received 20 sec warning
Warning timesin San Francisco
• From “Alarm” time (4 sec of data at 4 stations)
• Existing stations
• Telemetry upgrade
• 20 sec warning for San Francisco and Oakland
• Single station would provide <10 sec
Loma Prieta earthquake
Earthquake early warning
JapanTaiwan
Mexico
Turkey
Romania
Italy
Greece
India
United States
Operational systemsSystems under developmentaround the world
Warning timesin San Francisco
• existing stations
• existing telemetry
• delay: 5.5 sec
Warning timesin San Francisco
• existing stations
• telemetry upgrade
• delay: 2.0 sec
Northern California
Probabilistic warning times
WG02 Earthquake Probabilities
Scenario ShakeMap
WG02 Report• probabilities• ground shaking
ElarmS• warning times
Probabilistic warning times – infrastructure upgrade• 130 stations• 2 sec telemetry• 2 stations with pT
MMI 7: moderateMMI 9: heavy damage
San Francisco
Probabilistic warning times – infrastructure upgrade• 130 stations• 2 sec telemetry• 2 stations with pT
MMI 7: moderateMMI 9: heavy damage
San Francisco
Current applications
Utilities
Power (fire prevention), gas
Industry
Hazardous chemicals, chip manufacturers, eye surgeons
Construction
Site safety, (active control buildings)
Transportation
Airports, rail and subway, bridges
Response community
Fire departments, rescue teams, government
Personal protection
Schools, housing complexes (evacuation), hosing unit (preparation)
Japan, Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey and Romania