Cities forever?10 Insights into global urbanisation

Growth Stories

Bringing you a flavour of business

growth trends...in just 5 minutes

A Futures Coaching initiative

www.futurescoaching.com

shifting sands

Over half of us now live in cities

According to the WHO this is NOT good news

They say cities face a triple threat of: infectious diseases, chronic non-communicable diseases, and risks from road accidents, injuries, violence and crime

densificationHowever, densification increases communication,

accelerates the spread of ideasand can lead to innovative cultures

extremistanThe theory of extremistan is that society increasingly rejects the average and invests in the best of the best

In cities this translates to theiconic buildings in the CBDs ofthe World's greatest cities

In 2010, rents in the City ofLondon rose 25% and Shanghai28%

Small compared to Rio +47%and Hong Kong, a wacking51%!

Source: Cushman and Wakefield, 2011

secret cities12% of all global growth in GDP over the next decade will come from the 50 largest secondary and tertiary cities in China. Yet who, in the West, has heard of most of them?

Changchun

Changsha

Changzhou

Chengdu

Chongquing

Dalian

Dongguan

Foshan

Fuzhou

Guiyang

Haikou

Hangzhou

Harbin

Hefei

Hohhot

Jiaxing

Jilin

Jinan

Jinhua

Kunming

Lanzhou

Luoyang

Nanchang

Nanjing

Nanning

Nantong

Ningbo

Qingdao

Quanzhou

Shantou

Shaoxing

Shenyang

Shijiazhuang

Suzhou

Taiyuan

Tangshan

Tianjin

Urumqi

Weifang

Wenzhou

Wuhan

Wuxi

Xi'an

Xiamen

Xiangyang

Xuzhou

Yantai

Zhengzhou

Zhongshan

Zhuhai

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, China 50, 2012

In many countries around the world, virtually all wealth and opportunities are found in urban areas

Property investors in Africa, for example, need not look outside the major townships

cities or nothing

Urbanisation has been going on long enough nowfor examples to emerge of failing cities

Gelsenkirchen in Germany's Ruhr region is over-indebted; any city that can't invest goes kaput

America's Detroit lost 25% of its populationfrom 2000-2010 – what does that do to a city?

cities becoming nothing

slumurbiaAmerica's investment in suburbs has been called the

greatest waste of resources of all timeAs pump prices climb towards $4 a gallon,City Centres are becoming attractive again

This is leaving many stranded assets. For example derelict shopping malls are being converted into business

campuses and Universities (examples of both in San Antonio) and mixed use schemes (eg. Natick in Boston)

Branding cities has become a key trendLondon as the world's financial centre; Rio as gay friendly; Paris in the heart of romantics everywhere

In some cases, such branding will be used to revive dying cities,as with Japan's Yubari City – a City with great debts but very low divorce rates

branding

Amongst the multitude of greening initiatives,how about this?

Gotham Greens in New York has 15,000 square feet of green housing on its rooftop and produces 80 tons

of vegetables for the local community

green cities

There is a dream of smart cities where sensors connect everything seemlessly to provide efficient transport, waste and energy managementThese dreams are shared by IBM, Singapore Municipality etc.Such initiatives will remain just that, dreams. Almost no examples of concrete initiatives exist (Masdar City comes closest, perhaps). Planners get rapidly stuck on lack of public-private financing and competition between suppliers

smart cities

What has Futures Coaching been upto during March 2012?

Analysing social change amongst Filipino and Indonesian women and impacts on health marketingRunning deep-dive consumer research on social mediaPresenting to a retail property audience on consumer futures & impact on retailDeveloping future-facing insights to revolutionise branch formats for a retail bankPitching for the future of human communicationsBlogging on Asian trends and growth strategies

Working with Future Coaching Conference speeches on major trends - accelerating

management awareness Workshopping trends – evaluating impacts on

businesses or brands; future-proofing existing offers Brainstorming sessions – innovating to harness growth Reports on the future of sectors or industries –

jumping ahead of the curve; achieving thought leadership; building in longevity

Training for consumer insight teams – boosting internal futuring capabilities

Website: www.futurescoaching.comBlog: http://futurescoaching.typepad.com

Email: chris@futurescoaching.com

LONDON • PARIS