Standing on the shoulders of giants

Key insights from:

•The Presidency Scenarios 2025: “The future we chose?” (published 2008)

•The Dinokeng Scenarios – Three futures for South Africa (published 2009)

The Gauteng 2055 Development Strategy (Gauteng province in 2009)

The State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequality and Urban Land Markets (UN-Habitat 2010)

World Trade Report 2010 (WTO, 2010)

World Development Indicators 2010 (World Bank 2010)

Africa in 2050 (Institute of Security Studies, 2011)

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 (UN 2011)

Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Shell 2007)

Global Tends 2025: a transformed world (National Intelligence Council USA 2007)

Four global drivers

The Networked Century: from „each one,

reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.

The Thirsty century: the great Resource

Crunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.

The African Century: thriving in the great

global recalibration

The Trading Century: Gearing up for

Globalisation 4.0.

6,899,614,715….

the consensus best estimate for global

population as on 15 February 2011.

5,282 ,000,000…

the best calculation of global mobile

subscriptions at the end of 2010

2,084,000,000 ….

number of internet users end of 2010

The Networked Century

The Networked Century

Two thirds of Africans have cell phones by 2012; 80% have easy access

Connectivity

costs in Africa

are still

The Networked Century

The Networked Century

The Networked Century

The Networked Century

1 in 6 – the number of marriages of people who metthrough the internet

The Networked Century

Two

billion –

the

number

of

Youtube

videos

viewed

EACH

DAY

DOUBLE

The

2009

figures!

The complete Top 15 most

visited websites by South

Africans

1 ) Google SA

2 ) Facebook

3 ) Google

4 ) Yahoo

5 ) YouTube

6 ) Wikipedia

7 ) Gumtree

8 ) Wikipedia

9 ) Blogger

10 ) Twitter

11 ) Windows Live

12 ) News24

13 ) Standard Bank

14 ) ABSA

15 ) WordPress

The Networked Century

Which country had the highest

YouTube viewership in Africa in

2010?

The Thirsty century

The Thirsty century

The Thirsty century

Carbon crunches, water, waste

The Thirsty century

Energy emissions per capita, 2000(tonnes CO2/capita)

1.13

2.04

4.13

7.66

11.09

2.40

0.86

Source: IEA (with thanks to INCITE)

6.91

For South Africa, hotter, drier,

thirstier, in a world where carbon is

more controlled and energy is

everywhere expensive. How to meet

these challenges?

The African Century

Global Population Figures28

2925 most populous African countries2025, 2015, 2007

Nigeria (220m), Ethiopia (130m), Egypt (100m), the DRC (110m) and South Africa (50m) will make up 25% of the population of Africa by 2025. The other 48 countries will make up about 1.5billion people. Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda will all have 50m PLUS people, i.e. be higher than SA by 2025, even though we are currently well ahead of them in 2011.

31

Proportion of global GDP

derived from trade in goods

and services 1962 to 2010

The Trading Century

The Trading Century

The Trading Century

Africa rising

Micro

10%

Very Small

12%

Small

16%

Medium and Large

62%

Contribution to

GDP

Micro

33%

Very Small

23%

Small

16%

Unspecified

2%Medium to Large

26%

Source: the DTI(Ann Rev of Small business in SA 2003)

Contribution to

employment

The Trading Century

Four global drivers

The Networked Century: from „each one,

reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.

The Thirsty century: the great Resource

Crunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.

The African Century: thriving in the great

global recalibration

The Trading Century: Gearing up for

Globalisation 4.0.

The Cone of Probability

What will shape Johanesburg‟s

future?

• The Four Global Drivers

• The Centrality Driver: centrality in

Southern Africa: logistical,

economic, cultural

The City Management Driver

• Urban transformation (influx, capacity)

and quality of life

The Gauteng 2055 Trajectory

Plausible long-term outcomes

2015 -

2025

2015 -

20252015 -

2025

2015 -

2025

Plausible Alternatives

1. The Networked City : Will Johannesburg be

beating Drum of the New African Networks

OR a Digital Guerrilla Base?

2.The Resource Crunch: Awash in Sustainable

Energy and Recycled Water OR Mired in

saline black outs?

3. Africa Rising: Afro-Centric OR Eccentric?

Plausible Alternatives

Key Questions:

4. Globalisation 3.0: Knowledge Capital OR

Warehouse of Foreign Goods

5. Centrality : Heart of the Southern African City

Region Archipelago OR Decaying Citadel?

6. Urban Management

>Transforming at Pace OR Overtaken by

Events?

>City for All OR City of Slums, Glitz and

Gunpowder?

Is Johannesburg ready to:

Open up to real time networks?

Affordable and accessible broadband

Developing social media as a key to e-government, i.e. opening up the Network Society

Developing real-time responsiveness.

Attracting on line energy and partnerships

Is Johannesburg ready to:

Face the Resource Crunch ?

Paying for the future now

Embracing alternative energy and

recycling

Going even bigger on public transport

Green Technology Promotion

Involving consumers through Public

Education

Becoming a more

Compact City

Is Johannesburg ready to:

To become a social escalator that enables broad based upward mobility?

Local Resource Centres

Development Support Portal

SMME & Informal Sector support

Skills Exchange

Supportive Social Network

Is Johannesburg ready to:

Embrace a new age of Afro-

centricity ?

o Stronger relationship with Africa and

BRICS

oVoice of migrant populations (local

and international)

Projects could include:

Broadening and deepening African city-

city partnerships and coalitions

Investing in a more inclusive Arts and

Culture

Offering world class urban

lifestyle choices

Is Johannesburg ready to:

Become the cornerstone of a truly

competitive Global City Region?

Connecting deeply to cross border and

city region economic, spatial and logistics

planning

Projects Could Include:

Getting the Basics Right

Consolidating core service delivery

Championing Globally Competitive Sectors

Business Process Outsourcing

Financial Services

Value chains

Air/rail/road logistics hub and inland port

Becoming a true

Knowledge Capital

Is Johannesburg ready to:

Getting an Elephant to dance?

A clear and attainable long term vision?

An effective strategic framework?

A responsive, flexible and learning organisation?

A “Best in The World” (BIW) Team?

Build vibrant partnerships at all levels?

Discussion

Thank you!