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City of Live Oak

Community Redevelopment Agency

Housing Study Report

August 8, 2016

by

Dr. Jesse Saginor

Dr. Clifford McCue

Florida Atlantic University

2

School of Public Administration

777 Glades Road, SO 202C

Boca Raton, FL 33431

tel: 561-297-2330

fax: 561-297-4172

web: www.fau.edu/CDSI

August 8, 2016

Ms. Kim Smiley

CRA Project Specialist

City Hall Annex Building

101White Ave. S.E.

Live Oak, FL 32064

Dear Ms. Smiley,

We are pleased to submit the results of our extensive housing analysis to the City of Live Oak.

Our study, as documented in this Report, shows that the City is truly facing an unprecedented time

for economic development and revitalization in the CRA. The continued success of the CRA and

the continued economic prosperity of Live Oak depends on the ability to adapt to the changing and

increasingly complex local, national and international business and housing markets. Strategically

planned interventions are a means for strengthening the capacity and economic prosperity of the

CRA. A strong and vibrant CRA not only increases the quality of life for businesses and residents

in the CRA, but strategically planned interventions will improve the City’s overall investment

climate, and increase the productivity and competitiveness of the local business community in Live

Oak.

This Report provides a snapshot of a broad range of substantive issues within the CRA, including

but not limited to the obstacles and opportunities for a housing strategy. This Report covers

existing conditions from multiple data sources and provides insight into current and future housing

possibilities. The recommendations from this report provide guidance for multiple strategies to

strengthen the CRA and surrounding neighborhoods.

We hope that the attached Report attends to the scope of work defined in the original

documentation, and provides the City of Live Oak Community Redevelopment Agency with the

necessary baseline data to continue to foster economic development strategies that meet the needs

of the CRA and the City of Live Oak.

Sincerely,

Jesse Saginor, Ph.D.

Clifford McCue, Ph.D.

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Contents I. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4

1. An Annotated History of Live Oak ............................................................................................. 4

1.1: The City of Live Oak ........................................................................................................... 7

1.2: Economic Characteristics .................................................................................................... 7

1.3: Climate ................................................................................................................................. 7

1.4: Transportation ...................................................................................................................... 8

1.5: Cultural Attractions.............................................................................................................. 9

1.6: The City of Live Oak Community Redevelopment Area .................................................... 9

2. Existing Conditions in the Live Oak CRA ............................................................................... 11

2:1. Inventory of CRA District: Windshield Survey ................................................................ 11

2:2. Existing Conditions: Population, Households, and Income .............................................. 16

2:3. Profile of Market Segmentation ......................................................................................... 19

2:4. Migration Trends ............................................................................................................... 23

3: Analysis of Current and Future Housing Conditions................................................................ 26

3:1. Housing Tenure.................................................................................................................. 26

3:2. Owner Occupied Units by Value ....................................................................................... 27

3:3. Households by Income....................................................................................................... 28

3:4. Cost Burden ....................................................................................................................... 28

3:5. Current Real Estate Sale Listings Using Zillow and Related Websites ............................ 30

3:6. Current Rental Listings Using Zillow, Apartments.com, and Related Websites .............. 30

4: Conclusions and Recommendations for Implementation of Comprehensive Housing Analysis

....................................................................................................................................................... 31

4:1. Recommendation 1: Targeted Areas.................................................................................. 31

4:2. Recommendation 2: Property Tax Abatements and/or Related Incentives for New Single-

Family Residential Development and Relocation..................................................................... 31

4:3. Recommendation 3: Enforceable Code Enforcement ........................................................ 32

4:4. Recommendation 4: Low-Interest Revolving Loan for Home Repairs ............................. 32

4:5. Recommendation 5: Small-Scale Landbanking of Platted, Undeveloped Parcels ............ 32

4:6. Recommendation 6: Marketing the Live Oak CRA and City of Live Oak ....................... 32

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I. Introduction

Florida Atlantic University was commissioned by the City of Live Oak Community

Redevelopment Agency (CRA) to conduct a housing analysis within the established CRA

boundaries. The purpose of the housing study was to provide elected officials, CRA Board

members, city administration, residents and the business community with the data and tools

necessary to make strategic decisions for future directions of the CRA. As a result, this study

provides insight into the current housing conditions within the 1,083-acre CRA area and provides

recommendations regarding housing solutions for the next decade. The study is based, in large

part, utilizing the most recent CRA Plan (enacted by Ordinance 1267 in November of 2009), the

Live Oak Future Land Use Map, the City of Live Oak 2017 Comprehensive Plan, on-site

interviews of staff, GIS maps produced by the City, and national, regional and local data sources.

This study report is divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief review of the City of Live

Oak’s to provide the context of where and why the City has evolved to where it is today. In addition

Section one highlights the City’s long history, discusses some of the general demographics of the

City, including a discussion about the CRA. The second section focuses on existing conditions and

an overview of population and underlying segments of the population within the CRA as compared

with the City of Live Oak and Suwannee County. The third section provides a housing market

analysis that builds on supply and demand factors highlighted by the existing conditions as well

as building on additional data to provide a comprehensive analysis of current and future housing

needs. The fourth section provides recommendations for moving the CRA forward in a strategic

direction.

1. An Annotated History of Live Oak

The City of Live Oak has a rich and varied history according to Eric Musgrove’s (“A Brief History

of Suwannee County, FL,” 2008). Mr. Musgrove notes that originally Northern Florida was

inhabited by the Timucua Indians Tribe. At the beginning of the 16th Century, it is estimated that

around 150,000 Timucua were living in small villages throughout northern Florida and southern

Georgia. However, by 1595, the Timucua declined from 200,000 to 50,000 as a result exposure to

various infectious diseases they contracted from Spanish and English explorers. By 1700, the

population of the Timucua Tribe living around the Live Oak area had been reduced to

approximately 1,000. Eventually war, famine, and diseases completed their extinction soon after

the turn of the 19th century.

Early European history of what would be called Live Oak is not well documented. According to

Musgrove, around 1609 it is reported that the Spanish Indian Mission of San Juan de Guacara was

established at Baptizing Springs. Shortly thereafter, in order to assist the rapidly declining

populations of the Timucua, the Spanish introduced several other native tribes into the region. The

end of the Spanish mission system came about after a series of British raids that occurred between

1702 and 1705. Most of the Spanish survivors relocated closer to St. Augustine and the north-

central interior of Florida was for the most part abandoned.

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Musgrove notes that during most of the nineteenth century, Spaniards, French, English, and

American explorers continued to cross the Live Oak area. After the War of 1812, American

colonists began to migrate southward into Spanish Florida. One of the earliest American settlers

was a Colonel John Lowe, who acquired a 27,000 land grant from the Spanish along the Suwannee

River in what is now Columbia and Suwannee Counties. The United States purchased Florida from

Spain in 1821, and General Andrew Jackson was appointed military governor. In 1838, a

constitutional convention was called for the purpose of drawing up a constitution in preparation

for Florida’s admission into the Union as a state.

Among the fifty-six men that attended the convention, as Musgrove documents, was George E.

McClellan, who delivered the keynote address to the Constitutional Convention. At the time of its

formation on December, 21 1858, Suwannee County contained a mere two hundred families. In

1857 construction began on an east-west railroad, known as the Pensacola and Georgia Railroad

Line, across North Florida, and it was completed in 1861.

Near the center of Suwannee County, the railroad passed a particularly massive Live Oak tree and

nearby pond, where settlers and railroad workers would stop to rest. When the railroad selected

the area as the junction point for a northward line that led up through Georgia, Live Oak’s was

located at the intersection. These railroads were the only access any rail passenger or shipper had

to other states in the South and in middle and east Florida, and as a result all travelers had to pass

through “Live Oaks” on their way north, east, or west.

The town that grew up around the Live Oak tree at this railroad junction finally received its name

in 1863 when a railroad station was erected. The north-south railroad to Georgia was completed

in 1866. In 1882, it was extended southward to Rowland’s Bluff (now Branford) and later to

Tampa, increasing the flow of passengers through Suwannee County and in particular, Live Oak.

After the Civil War Live Oak’s growth continued at a steady pace. Musgrove states that John

Parshley arrived in Live Oak with his wife and six children in 1867 and soon built himself a two-

story house opposite the present Courthouse. Mr. Parshley laid out many of Live Oak’s streets that

are still used today; at his arrival, the only street had been a short section of Conner Street.

Furthermore, he built a large sawmill and planing mill in what is now downtown Live Oak,

increasing commerce in the area. Howard and Wilbur Streets were named for his sons, Ohio for

his home state. Within a year of Mr. Parshley’s arrival, the community of Live Oak boasted fifty

people, with the first post office in town having been established in 1866 to serve them under the

direction of Moses L. Stebbins.

Even after the death of Mr. Parshley, the family remained active in Live Oaks politics. In 1868,

Nancy Parshley proposed the location for the Suwannee County Courthouse, although it would be

several years before the courthouse was actually constructed. The proposal did, however, cause

the county seat to be moved from Houston to Live Oak, which officially occurred on August 1,

1868.

A business partner of John Parshley, Mr. N. H. Walker, secured land on the west side of Howard

Street and attempted to start a new town. He built a large structure and offered it to the County as

a courthouse, but his offer was declined. His business failed in 1870 and he left town, never to

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return. The building he left behind was used as a school in Live Oak until the black community

bought it. It became Florida Memorial College, one of the first colleges in Florida dedicated to

serving minorities. After serving as such for some twenty years, it was sold at public auction and

torn down to make way for the Suwannee County Hospital (Musgrove, 2008).

Lake City, Florida Agricultural College

By this time Live Oak had its first newspaper, the Live Oak Advertiser, which was bought out in

1875 by Daniel M. McAlpin and renamed the Florida Bulletin. It was the forerunner of the present

Suwannee Democrat. During this period, C. K. Dutton and Major H. A. Wyse operated what was

probably the largest naval store business in Florida. The demand for these stores was so large that

in 1877, shortly after George Drew became governor, he leased all the State convicts to work in

Suwannee County for the manufacturing and processing of naval stores. The growth in industry

led to a 100% increase in population between 1870 and 1880 to 7,161.

The community of Live Oak was not incorporated until April 24, 1878, when a group of 39 citizens

met to create a seal and government for a town that at the time comprised an area of 960 acres.

The seal that was created showed a large live oak tree with the words “Live Oak, Florida”

appearing at its base. Next, a government was created. The first mayor was Major A. L. Woodward,

assisted by a town council consisting of H. A. Blackburn, H. M. Wood, C. K. Dutton, Major H. A.

Wyse, and Thomas Thompson. S. W. Hicks was appointed town sheriff and tax collector. Among

the five ordinances passed at the meeting were ones fining the use of profanity; prohibiting shops

and establishments from opening on Sundays; outlawing the parking of mules or horses on the

paths and sidewalks; and punishing those who might “needlessly hammer pots at hours when

slumber should have been the order of the day!” The meeting adjourned and the town of Live Oak

was born.

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1.1: The City of Live Oak

Currently the City of Live Oak is beginning its renaissance as the “gateway” between Florida and

the rest of the nation. The City is affectionately nicknamed "The Heart of the Suwannee Valley."

Live Oak has earned this reputation because of the number of charming century old Spanish moss

filled oak trees that run throughout the city. In addition, the Suwannee Valley reference stems from

the fact that Live Oak is just minutes away from the famous Suwannee River and all the amenities

that it has to offer.

1.2: Economic Characteristics

Table 1 provides a quick snapshot of some of the general economic indicators for the City of Live

Oak.

Table 1: General Economic Indicators and Data Sources

Live Oak

Population Estimate Source: Vintage 2015 Population Estimates: Population Estimates

Per Capita Income Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Median Household Income Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Individuals below poverty level Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Profiles

Educational Attainment: Percent high school graduate or higher Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Profiles

Health Insurance Coverage: Percent uninsured Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Profiles

Median Housing Value Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Total Housing Units Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Number of Companies Source: 2012 Survey of Business Owners: Company Summary Veterans Source: 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Profiles

6,931

$ 14,243

$ 22,014

38.5 %

64.3 %

19.1 %

$ 68,900

3,134

815

371

1.3: Climate

Live Oak climate is very temperate with summer high temperatures averaging in the low to mid-

nineties and winter low temperatures averaging in the low to mid forties. Hard freezes are

infrequent, with record low temperatures in the low teens. Average annual rainfall is approximately

50 inches. Hurricanes are a major source of concern throughout Florida, and Live Oak experienced

an extensive flooding from tropical storm Debbie in 2012. . However, the primary hurricane threats

to most of the population centers of the region are from wind damage and rain induced local

flooding.

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Tropical Storm Debbie (2012); Howard Street looking west to I 90

1.4: Transportation

While largely rural, Live Oak benefits from an extensive transportation network. Interstate 75 is

the primary north/south transportation artery that connects the City to central and south Florida, as

well as the Southeastern U.S. and Midwest U.S. to the north. Interstate 10 is the east/west

transportation artery that connects the City to Jacksonville on the east and the Florida panhandle

and Alabama to the west. Rail service in the region is provided by CSX Transportation, Norfolk

Southern and other providers. The City hosts a regional airport, the Suwannee County Airport, and

the Suwannee River runs directly to the Gulf of Mexico.

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1.5: Cultural Attractions

Live Oak's offers many cultural attractions, including the Olustee Battlefield State Monument,

Suwannee County Historical Museum, Peacock Springs State Park, Samuel P. Harn Museum of

Art, Stephen Foster State Folk Culture Center, and the Florida Museum of Natural History. Plus,

just half an hour from Tallahassee and Jacksonville, visitors to Live Oak can easily take advantage

of the many offerings of the city's famous neighbor to the east and west.

1.6: The City of Live Oak Community Redevelopment Area

The Live Oak CRA is a unique area located in the core of the City of Live Oak in Suwannee

County. The geographic location of the Live Oak CRA makes this location the engine that powers

the City of Live of Oak and Suwannee County. While the City of Live Oak has a stable population

that has not significantly changed in decades, population growth trends in Florida demonstrate that

this area’s location at the crossroads of two major interstates may position Live Oak to capture

segments of this population growth. More important than capturing segments of this growth is the

importance of having a plan that accommodates potential growth without compromising the

traditional character and values of Live Oak and Suwannee County.

The Live Oak Community Redevelopment Agency was officially established on July 11, 1995.

Later that year the City created a Trust Fund on November 14, 1995 to provide financial support

to the CRA. Over the years the CRA has made some changes to the original CRA Plan. Under the

revised Plan (2009), the CRA’s mission is:

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Our mission is to establish and maintain effective partnerships within the Live Oak

Community by building a stronger, more vibrant, livable and economically sustainable

redevelopment area which provides an enhanced quality of life for both residents and

businesses, while preserving our historical and cultural heritage.

The CRA has established the following four goals:

1. Outreach to residents and businesses in the redevelopment area for input and collaboration.

2. Promotion of the district in order to attract quality investment.

3. Identification of viable projects which will have both an immediate and long-term positive

effects.

4. Implementation of these projects in a feasible, yet timely, manner.

Currently the CRA covers approximately 1,083 acres, which represents around 22% of the city

limits (4,857 acres total). Under Florida law, CRA’s are normally funded through Tax Incremental

Financing (TIF). TIF funding is based on the change in property values that result from property

value growth in the CRA from the base year (for Live Oak CRA the base year is 1995). These TIF

revenues are used to help fund improvements within the CRA for redevelopment, economic

development, and infrastructure improvements. The taxing authorities are Suwannee County and

the City of Live Oak.

In fiscal year 2015-2016 the CRA received $180,110 from the City of Live Oak and $239,049

from Suwannee County, with a carry forward fund balance of $590,086. Under Florida law, the

CRA funding status runs through the year 2039, however Florida Statutes allow the Trust Fund to

be established for a maximum of 60 years. Based on an initial creation date of 1995, the CRA has

a potential life span through the year 2055.

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2. Existing Conditions in the Live Oak CRA

This section revolves around population characteristics that are the foundation of any housing

market. Before discussing several data sources compiled on the CRA, the City of Live Oak, and

Suwannee County, the section begins with an overview of the CRA based on two site visits. From

there, data regarding population, population growth, households, household growth, and median

household income are discussed. After covering basic population background characteristics, the

diversity of different segments within the CRA, City, and County are highlighted. The section

concludes with a discussion of county-level migration trends

2:1. Inventory of CRA District: Windshield Survey

The authors of this report visited the area on June 17th and July 25th – 26th. The purpose of these

visits served as the basis for making sense of the data that could easily be misinterpreted without

visiting the area. The first visit was largely a windshield survey of the CRA and surrounding areas,

while the second visit consisted of meeting with CRA Project Specialist Kim Smiley and

Development Manager George Curtis followed by a more extensive drive throughout the area.

The site visit revealed that there are significant portions of the CRA that are undeveloped, while

several other portions are underutilized or underdeveloped. On the north side of the CRA

stretching out toward I-10 along Ohio Avenue North (US Hwy129) from the downtown area, there

is sporadic commercial development with pockets of undeveloped or underutilized real estate

prime for future commercial development with the possibility of multifamily uses. The reason for

suggesting multifamily as opposed to single-family residential development is based largely on

the amount of traffic along this stretch of Ohio Avenue North (US Hwy129) to I-10. Due to the

access to I-10, the high traffic counts make this area more suitable to multifamily development.

Additionally, the current and future land use zoning allow for this type of use.

The central part of the CRA falls into what would be considered downtown Live Oak or the

geographic center of Live Oak at the intersection of Ohio Avenue (US Hwy129) and Howard

Street (US Hwy 90) (Figure 1). During a one-hour period late in the afternoon on Monday, July

25th, there were no fewer than four freight trains that passed by on the CSX tracks that run parallel

and just north of Howard Street. The fact that this track is heavily utilized makes this location

more suitable to commercial uses, retail uses, and affordable, multifamily housing. Despite the

train traffic, this area has high visibility based on the two major streets intersecting in this area.

Additionally, many of the major government employers (Suwannee County and City of Live Oak)

provide a steady source of jobs in the area and help offset low occupancy in the surrounding Live

Oak Shopping Center and sporadic retail and personal service offices scattered throughout the

area. Unlike many other smaller downtowns, there is no existing historic district despite the

existence of a few historic buildings. Additionally, many of the buildings are one-story buildings,

so any multifamily housing options would require the construction of new buildings as opposed to

retrofitting existing buildings into residential uses. Fortunately, there are pockets of undeveloped

land throughout the downtown area for small-scale multifamily residential development.

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Figure 1: Central CRA/Downtown Existing Conditions

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The east central part of the CRA poses some interesting opportunities and challenges all within a

few hundred feet of one another at the intersection of East Howard Street and Cooper Street SE.

The opportunity is the Heritage Trail trailhead off of Howard Street, which runs south into the

southeastern portion of the CRA. This trailhead is just east of an FPL substation and the vacant

Suwannee Packing Co. site. While the Suwannee Packing Co. building is currently vacant, the

Phase I environmental report did not reveal any major environmental issues. The trailhead serves

as an attraction for active living and possible future residential development.

Figure 2: Heritage Trail Trailhead looking south, Substation, and Suwannee Packing Co.

The southern central part of the CRA as well as the City adjacent to downtown provides some of

the greatest challenges. This southern central part of the CRA runs north of Parshley Street SW,

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Van Buren Street SE, and Park Street SE. While the CRA does run further south to the southeast

along the trail and south along Ohio Avenue, this section of the CRA and the City has a

disconnected mix of residential structures that provides barriers to neighborhood revitalization.

There are several streets lined with older homes in great condition, likely due to the homeowner

or renter routinely maintaining these older, smaller homes. Adjacent to many of these areas are

streets with older mobile homes in average to poor structural condition, and the condition of these

mobile homes reflects yards that are overgrown or poorly maintained with debris and other items

in the yard. Whether these mobile homes are in the CRA or in the City is not as important as the

fact that code enforcement may lead to improved overall neighborhood conditions. Additionally,

there are several vacant or undeveloped properties that are either overgrown or in a state of

disrepair. Any revitalization in this area will likely require a joint effort between the City and the

CRA, with code enforcement as the first step. Another issue also likely to impact residential

development and redevelopment in this area is the fact that many properties are located in FEMA

flood zones, meaning that some properties may be better used by being purchased by the CRA or

the City and used as neighborhood parks, which may lead to other neighborhood beautification

efforts.

Figure 3: An example of abandoned, dilapidated structure in the south central section of CRA

The greatest potential for new single-family housing exists in the southeastern corner of the CRA,

defined as the area that occupies the southeast section of the CRA and ends at the Live Oak City

Limits. This area is heavily wooded, undeveloped, and largely zoned agricultural. The north end

of this section of the CRA is adjacent to several homes in excellent condition, above average

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median values, and situated in areas that would be deemed as low-density residential areas.

Building on the existing, higher-end housing stock in this area, the large amount of available land

provides the opportunity to build similar higher-end homes that could strengthen the overall quality

of future residential and non-residential development within the CRA’s boundaries. By situating

higher-end housing on the eastern end of the CRA’s boundaries, additional housing ranging from

market-rate to affordable housing could be built gradually to bridge the gap between high-end

housing and affordable housing. This large swath of undeveloped land provides multiple

opportunities to a diversified approach to residential development. The residential opportunities

are strengthened by the fact that there are road paving projects already in progress or scheduled in

the near future to expand the transportation infrastructure, including paved access to major

thoroughfares to the north and west of this area. Despite the transportation infrastructure

improvements, developing this area would require expensive and extensive infrastructure

investment due to a lack of water and sewer infrastructure.

Figure 4: Example of the types of single-family homes adjacent to southeastern CRA District

The southwestern portion of the CRA is largely developed, with some scattered sites that are

vacant, undeveloped, and/or underutilized on either side of Ohio Avenue. A large section of the

CRA is occupied by educational uses, such as Suwannee Elementary School, Suwannee High

School, RiverOak Technical College, and Suwannee River Regional Library. This area also has

the South Oaks Shopping Center, anchored by a Publix and containing a handful of restaurants

and other supporting retail uses. Unlike the Live Oak Shopping Center on Howard St E., the South

Oaks Shopping Center has more traffic and less vacancy. Given the combination of the shopping

center and multiple educational facilities, this area may be more ideal for multifamily development

based on the existing commercial zoning and traffic counts. Moreover, this type of multifamily

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development could be tailored to young families with low to middle incomes. Another segment

that the multifamily development may be able to attract are people over the age of 55 based on

this area’s proximity to retail, the library, multiple churches, and Shands Live Oak Regional

Medical Center.

Taken together, the various parts of the CRA are extremely diverse in terms of opportunities for

housing. Based simply on the windshield survey, there is no single strategy that will work

throughout the entire CRA, but there are multiple strategies that can be pursued in the future based

on proper marketing of various assets that Live Oak already has in place, even if these assets may

exist beyond the CRA’s borders. The rest of this report delves into the data underlying the existing

and future conditions within the CRA, the City of Live Oak, and Suwannee County to determine

the best course of action for pursuing the existing opportunities.

2:2. Existing Conditions: Population, Households, and Income

Existing conditions related to data available for population, households, and income all point to

incremental growth across these three sets of data in past, with this incremental positive trend to

continue based on projections. The 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census, coupled with population

projections from ESRI show a very slight increase in population from 2000 to 2021 (Table 1).

Between 2016 and 2021, the projections estimate an increase in population of 19 people within the

CRA and 132 people total in Live Oak. This population increase amounts to roughly four people

a year in the CRA and 26.4 people in Live Oak. On a housing basis, this would amount to building

a minimal number of homes to support the existing population.

Table 1: Population Data, 2000-2021

Year Live Oak

CRA City of Live

Oak Suwannee County

2000 1,085 6,525 34,844

2010 1,142 6,850 41,551

2016 1,179 7,089 45,105

2021 1,198 7,221 45,848

Total Change 2000-2021 113 696 11,004 Population Growth 2000-2021 10.4% 10.7% 31.6%

Average Annual Growth 0.5% 0.51% 1.5%

Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census, 2016 and 2021 ESRI Projections

The Shimberg Center for Housing Studies at the University of Florida has population projections

for the City of Live Oak that are even more conservative than the ESRI projections, but the

Shimberg Center does not have data projections for geographic areas smaller than a city, such as

a CRA. ESRI’s projections for 2021 propose a population of 7,221, while the Shimberg Center’s

projections for 2040 calculate a population of 7,147 (Table 2). Regardless of the projection

methodology, the fact remains that past and current data point to very slow population growth in

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the CRA and Live Oak. Despite this slow growth locally, the population elsewhere in Suwannee

County has been much greater, with projected growth based on ESRI’s calculations to be 31.6%

between 2000 and 2021. Looking at the average annual growth rates and the rate for Suwannee

County, while still low, is three times the rate of growth in the CRA and City. Moreover, there is

growth elsewhere in the county, but this growth is currently not reflected based on the population

in the CRA and the City. All of these projections are based on existing conditions and assume that

there will be no proactive housing policies or related measures to increase the population.

Table 2: Population by Age for the City of Live Oak, 2000-2040

Age 2000 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0-4 430 600 548 542 514 530 522 533 525

5-9 452 460 485 499 491 523 526 526 523

10-14 487 477 476 483 539 440 455 450 458

15-19 605 527 446 433 455 488 486 493 520

20-24 465 489 567 577 489 587 589 517 493

25-29 380 516 550 540 554 501 502 557 535

30-34 318 409 478 487 479 504 439 510 525

35-39 420 400 434 442 531 477 502 448 456

40-44 446 359 381 389 445 485 477 499 439

45-49 364 419 392 387 399 433 515 457 473

50-54 381 418 376 369 312 349 395 429 417

55-59 284 350 361 368 349 335 338 373 436

60-64 273 345 309 306 318 289 244 272 310

65-69 281 270 263 265 275 277 288 252 277

70-74 281 245 243 247 271 254 255 238 195

75+ 613 566 541 542 550 566 561 573 565

Total

6,480

6,850

6,850

6,876

6,971

7,038

7,094

7,127

7,147

Source: Estimates and projections by Shimberg Center for Housing Studies, based on 2000 and 2010

U.S. Census data and population projections by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research,

University of Florida.

More important than the slow growth rate are indicators of which ages are likely to grow in the

coming years. The Shimberg Center projections highlight an important issue related to the overall

health of Live Oak, irrespective of whether it is the CRA or the City. The projections in bold in

Table 2 show the five largest population segments for each year. The 75+ segment will be one of

the largest segments in every year, indicating a continued need for 55+ and/or assisted living and

other continuing care retirement community housing. The other segments in bold are mostly for

people in their 30s and younger. In between the 30 and under crowd and the 75+ population, the

portion of the population that would be considered prime working age is smaller. This prime

working age population is the major driver of household formation and expansion, and an

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improved, diverse job market in the City and County may help attract more population in these

age groups in the future.

The data on the number of households (Table 3) reflects the slow population growth in the CRA

and City, with a higher rate of growth throughout Suwannee County. While this trend seems

repetitive, the growth elsewhere in the county may mean that the CRA may be able to capture this

growth based on future housing needs. In other words, the primary goal of housing should address

the current population in the CRA and the City, while the secondary goal should attempt to attract

people from elsewhere in the county.

Table 3: Household Data, 2000-2021

Year Live Oak

CRA City of Live

Oak Suwannee County

2000 328 2,380 13,460

2010 336 2,491 15,953

2016 347 2,567 16,464

2021 353 2,611 16,717

Total Change 2000-2021 25 231 3,257

Household Growth 2000-2021 7.6% 9.7% 24.2%


The last aspect, and perhaps most important aspect, relates to the median household income, which

serves as a major indicator for the cost of housing. Between 2016 and 2021, the projected median

household income within the CRA is expected to increase 12.7% (Table 4). While this increase is

good news in an era of relatively stagnant incomes and above the projected U.S. average for the

next five years, it lags a few percent behind the City and County increases of 15.9%. While the

spending power of the CRA households will increase, the spending power of the households in the

City and County will increase at a slightly greater rate. With this in mind, any housing strategy

pursued within the CRA should provide diverse housing options to maximize the spending power

of the current population within the CRA as well as attract the spending power of households

elsewhere in the City and the County. Median household income serves as the basis for the median

price of housing a household can afford. A traditional, yet sometimes inaccurate estimate, is to

assume that a household can afford a house worth three times their household income. So, a

household with a combined income of $100,000 could afford a $300,000 home. Using figures for

2016 at the CRA, City, and County levels mean that the median home is worth approximately

$82,491 in the CRA, $88,227 in the City, and $106,995 in the County. While these numbers serve

as simple estimates, the second section of this report analyzes housing values in more detail.

19

Table 4: Median Household Income

Median Household Income

Live Oak CRA City of Live Oak Suwannee County U.S.

2016 $27,497 $29,409 $35,665 $54,149

2021 $30,989 $34,077 $41,339 $59,476 $ Change $3,492 $4,668 $5,674 $5,327 Percent Change 12.7% 15.9% 15.9% 9.8%


The simple data covering population, households, and median household income all demonstrate

that the CRA lags behind the City and the County in a few key, important factors. These factors

reflect consumer preferences for things such as housing and how much consumers are willing to

spend on housing. More importantly, population growth in the CRA cannot be expected to occur

from within the CRA, and the data for Live Oak and Suwannee County are included to represent

just one possible area to draw more residents into the CRA. Drawing power, though, assumes that

whatever new housing is built in the CRA is attractive to people outside of the CRA.

2:3. Profile of Market Segmentation

The purpose of this section is to highlight the consumer demand profile currently in the CRA as

compared to the City of Live Oak and Suwannee County. The goal is to understand what might

attract people outside of the CRA to relocate into the CRA. ESRI created a geodemographic

system that compiles several different data points into market segments to highlight different

characteristics of consumers throughout the United States. ESRI’s Tapestry Segmentation system

contains 68 different types of market segments. Compared to the data in the previous section of

this report, the goal of this segmentation defines consumer demand profiles. Consumer demand

profiles include lifestyle preferences such as the type of housing desired and other spending

patterns. Housing is just one aspect of consumer demand and plays a large part in the health of the

local economy based on property tax revenue. Consumer demand is also a major driver for sales

tax revenue in the local economy. Taken together, the spending power of various segments of the

population can differ significantly. Discussing the various segments of the population in the local

economy provides greater insight into existing conditions and future opportunities.

ESRI uses Tapestry Segmentation to create general LifeMode groups. These LifeMode groups

reflect commonalities within segments of the population. Suwannee County’s population is the

home of five LifeMode groups with roughly 10 different market segments that differ drastically

20

based on the geographic area between the CRA, the City of Live Oak, and Suwannee County.

These five LifeModes and 10 different underlying market segments specific to the CRA, City, and

County are outlined in Table 5 to provide an overview and basic definition of these categories. In

some regards, these basic definitions may be generalizations that reflect only some segments of

the population. The purpose of this section is to highlight the different market segments in the

area, as these different, diverse market segments serve as the basis for any housing strategy.

Table 5: LifeMode Groups and Tapestry Segments

LifeMode 5: GenXurban

Tapestry Segment: Midlife Constants

Geographic Location: City of Live Oak, Suwannee County

Gen X in middle age; families with fewer kids and a mortgage

Second largest Tapestry group, comprised of Gen X married couples, and a growing

population of retirees

About a fifth of residents are 65 or older; about a fourth of households have retirement

income

Live and work in the same county, creating shorter commute times

Invest wisely, well-insured, comfortable banking online or in person

News junkies (read a daily newspaper, watch news on TV, and go online for news)

Enjoy reading, photo album/scrapbooking, playing board games and cards, doing

crossword puzzles, going to museums and rock concerts, dining out, and walking for

exercise

LifeMode 8 Middle Ground

Tapestry Segment: Hardscrabble Road

Geographic Location: Live Oak CRA, City of Live, Suwannee County

Lifestyles of thirtysomethings

Millennials in the middle: single/married, renters/homeowners, middle class/working

class

Urban market mix of single-family, townhome, and multi-unit dwellings

Majority of residents attended college or attained a college degree

Householders have ditched their landlines for cell phones, which they use to listen to

music (generally contemporary hits), read the news, and get the latest sports updates of

their favorite teams

Online all the time: use the Internet for entertainment (downloading music, watching

YouTube, finding dates), social media (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn), shopping and

news

21

Leisure includes night life (clubbing, movies), going to the beach, some travel and

hiking

LifeMode 9 Senior Styles

Tapestry Segment: The Elders, Senior Escapes

Geographic Location: Suwannee County

Senior lifestyles reveal the effects of saving for retirement

Households are commonly married empty nesters or singles living alone; homes are

single-family (including seasonal getaways), retirement communities, or high-rise

apartments

More affluent seniors travel and relocate to warmer climates; less affluent, settled

seniors are still working toward retirement

Cell phones are popular, but so are landlines

Many still prefer print to digital media: Avid readers of newspapers, to stay current

Subscribe to cable television to watch channels like Fox News, CNN, and The Weather

Channel

Residents prefer vitamins to increase their mileage and a regular exercise regimen

LifeMode 10 Rustic Outposts

Tapestry Segment: Southern Satellites, Rooted Rural, Down the Road, Rural Bypasses


Country life with older families in older homes

Rustic Outposts depend on manufacturing, retail and healthcare, with pockets of

mining and agricultural jobs

Low labor force participation in skilled and service occupations

Own affordable, older single-family or mobile homes; vehicle ownership, a must

Residents live within their means, shop at discount stores and maintain their own

vehicles (purchased used) and homes

Outdoor enthusiasts, who grow their own vegetables, love their pets and enjoy hunting

and fishing

Technology is cost prohibitive and complicated. Pay bills in person, use the yellow

pages, read the newspaper and mail-order books

LifeMode 11 Midtown Singles

Tapestry Segment: City Commons


Millennials on the move—single, diverse, urban

22

Millennials seeking affordable rents in apartment buildings

Work in service and unskilled positions, usually close to home or public transportation

Single parents depend on their paycheck to buy supplies for their very young children

Midtown Singles embrace the Internet, for social networking and downloading content

From music and movies to soaps and sports, radio and television fill their lives

Brand savvy shoppers select budget friendly stores

LifeMode 12 Hometown

Tapestry Segment: Small Town Simplicity


Growing up and staying close to home; single householders

Close knit urban communities of young singles (many with children)

Owners of old, single-family houses, or renters in small multi-unit buildings

Religion is the cornerstone of many of these communities

Visit discount stores and clip coupons, frequently play the lottery at convenience stores

Canned, packaged and frozen foods help to make ends meet

Purchase used vehicles to get them to and from nearby jobs

Source: ESRI Tapestry Segmentation, www.esri.com/landing-pages/tapestry

Table 6 provides additional details for each tapestry segment, including the percentage of the

population at each geographic level falling into each segment. For example, the largest segment

in the CRA is Hardscrabble Road, which ESRI defines as being roughly 60% renters, older housing

built mostly before 1960, 80% of the homes have a value below $100,000, an above average

vacancy rate, 38% have a high school diploma only, and the unemployment rate is higher than the

national average. The largest segment in the City of Live Oak, and the second largest segment in

the CRA, is Small Town Simplicity, which ESRI defines as small town neighborhoods having a

mix of older single-family homes, apartments, and mobile homes, slightly more than half of the

homes are owner occupied and valued at approximately $88,000, half the population is 55 years

old or older, 65% of the population has a high school diploma or completed some college, a slightly

higher unemployment rate, a lower labor force participation rate due to unemployment and/or

having a high number of retirees. For Suwannee County, the largest segment of the population is

Rooted Rural, with 80% of home being owner-occupied, roughly 20% of homes are vacant and/or

seasonal, and homes are likely worth less than $100,000. These three major tapestry segments vary

somewhat across the three geographic areas, and compared to the U.S. averages, these segments

demonstrate that the CRA, City, and County are unique compared to the U.S. A broader definition

of each segment appears in the appendix of this report.

http://www.esri.com/landing-pages/tapestry

23

Table 6: Tapestry Segment by Percentage of Households and Basic Characteristics

Live Oak

CRA

City of Live

Oak

Suwannee

County Basic Characteristics

Tapestry Segment

Percentage

of

Households

Percentage

of

Households

Percentage

of

Households

Median

Age

Median

Household

Income

Net

Worth

Median

Rent*

Median

Value*

Hardscrabble Road 51.19% 12.40% 1.90% 31.7 $26,000 $12,000 $690

Small Town Simplicity 31.85% 39.60% 8.50% 40.0 $27,000 $14,000 $88,000

Rural Bypasses 10.71% 15.10% 4.70% 39.7 $29,000 $25,000 $85,000

City Commons 6.25% 14.50% 2.20% 27.6 $17,000 $10,000 $650

Midlife Constants 7.30% 5.40% 45.9 $48,000 $104,000 $141,000

Down the Road 6.90% 10.90% 34.3 $36,000 $30,000 $104,000

Southern Satellites 4.20% 13.80% 39.7 $44,000 $70,000 $119,000

Rooted Rural 31.70% 44.1 $38,000 $72,000 $104,000

Senior Escapes 17.10% 52.6 $35,000 $84,000 $110,000

The Elders 3.90% 71.8 $35,000 $194,000 $153,000

* Figures are based on whether a majority of the population owns or rents. A segment where a majority of the population rents

only lists median rent. A segment where a majority of the population owns their home has the median home value.

Sources: ESRI Tapestry Segmentation, www.esri.com/landing-pages/tapestry; ESRI Business

Analyst Online

Unlike the previous section containing simple population, household, and household income, the

market segmentation using ESRI’s Tapestry Segmentation methodology shows the diversity of the

population in the CRA, the City, and the County. More importantly, this diversity of market

segments drives the diversity needed in the future housing stock to retain and attract these market

segments. A comprehensive housing strategy can address the needs of the market within the CRA

while also attracting segments elsewhere in the City and the County.

2:4. Migration Trends

Thus far, this report addressed various parts of the population in the CRA, the City of Live Oak,

and Suwannee County. Migration data into and out Suwannee County sheds light on the bigger

picture related to possible market segments beyond the county that could be targeted for relocation

to the CRA. The Internal Revenue Service’s Statistics of Income Division publishes migration

data on an annual basis regarding address changes. These address changes are based on an

individual’s income tax return filed with the IRS. With this fact in mind, migration data only

include individuals who filed a tax return. The migration data numbers include approximately 95

to 98 percent of tax filings, with the exclusion of people who file their taxes after September.

Additionally, there is a lag in the migration data, meaning that income tax returns filed in 2015

will not have migration data available until late 2016. These migration data are only available at

the county level, but provide some insight into which counties new residents to Suwannee County

http://www.esri.com/landing-pages/tapestry

24

came from as well as where people that left Suwannee County went to. For the purpose of this

report, migration data from 2009 to 2014, the most recent year of data available, are included.

Table 7 shows information for inflow and outflow for the top 21 counties from 2009-2014. The

largest migration pattern exists with Columbia County, which is adjacent to Suwannee County’s

eastern border. Since 2009, tax return data shows that a total of 980 new people who previously

filed tax returns in Columbia County filed returns in Suwannee County. This inflow was more than

offset by the outflow in returns from Columbia County where the previous county filed in was

Suwannee County. In Table 5, a negative net flow means that more tax returns were filed in the

county a taxpayer moved to rather than from that county. So, for Alachua County, the net flow of

-52 means that Suwannee County lost approximately 52 federal taxpayers to Alachua County.

Table 7: Selected County Migration Data, 2009-2014*

County Inflow Outflow Net Flow

Net Regional

Flow

Alachua** 201 253 -52 -52

Brevard 21 11 10

Broward 146 91 55

Clay 25 13 12

Columbia 980 1,074 -94 -94

Duval 190 178 12

Gilchrist 65 86 -21 -21

Hamilton 259 172 87 87

Hillsborough 155 107 48

Lafayette 203 300 -97 -97

Lee 41 23 18

Leon 76 93 -17

Lowndes, GA 24 52 -28 -28

Madison 89 57 32 32

Marion 45 80 -35

Miami Dade 181 136 45

Orange 69 57 12

Palm Beach 95 59 36

Pinellas 102 51 51

Polk 50 28 22

St. Lucie 10 13 -3

Volusia 11 42 -31

Total

3,038

2,976 62 -173

*Selected County Migration Data include the counties where people moved from (inflow) to

Suwannee County or where people moved to (outflow) away from Suwannee County.

**Counties in bold are either adjacent to or near Suwannee County.

Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, U.S. Population Migration

Data. Retrieved 6/25/16.

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Taken together, the net flow with the top 21 counties is slightly positive at 62, but taken with the

adjacent counties, the net flow is negative at -173. These data indicate that Suwannee County is

losing taxpayer population to surrounding areas while attracting populations from elsewhere in the

state. Ideally, an improved housing stock may stem the flow of local outmigration to surrounding

counties while at the same time attracting more people throughout the state.

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3: Analysis of Current and Future Housing Conditions

The data in the previous section focus on the determinants underlying housing, mainly income,

household growth, population growth, and market characteristics unrelated to housing. An

analysis of current and future housing conditions often reflects much of the information from the

previous sections. Slow population growth manifests this fact through slow development of single

family and multifamily residential units. The purpose of this section is to examine housing more

directly, with the conclusion of this section touching on housing demand for the near future.

3:1. Housing Tenure

From a neighborhood stability standpoint, homeownership is an important factor to maintain

neighborhood and property values. Since 2000, the housing tenure trend in the CRA, City, and

County trended toward a greater number of renter occupied units. Another factor related to

housing tenure across all geographic areas is that roughly one of every five to six homes are vacant.

The number of owner occupied units in the CRA was 58% in 2000, dropped to 46.9% in 2010, and

currently stands at 41.7% with a projected decline to 39.4% by 2021. Given the current trends in

the CRA, the largest housing tenure segment will be renters by 2021. This trend assumes that

there will be no proactive housing policies put in place to foster homeownership.

Table 8: Housing Tenure, 2000-2021

Live Oak CRA City of Live Oak Suwannee County

2000 Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Owner Occupied Units 232 58.0% 1,732 62.3% 10,892 69.5%

Renter Occupied Units 95 23.8% 648 23.3% 2,568 16.4%

Vacant Units 73 18.3% 398 14.3% 2,219 14.2%

Total Units 400 2,778 15,679

2010


Renter Occupied Units 146 36.0% 1,188 40.3% 3,950 20.6%

Vacant Units 69 17.0% 460 15.6% 3,211 16.8%

Total Units 405 2,951 19,164

2016



Vacant Units 80 18.7% 534 17.5% 3,526 17.6%

Total Units 427 3,056 19,990

2021



Vacant Units 86 19.6% 580 18.5% 3,745 18.3%

Total Units 439 3,134 20,462

Source: 2000 U.S. Census, 2010 U.S. Census, 2016 and 2021 data based on ESRI Business

Analyst Online projections.

27

Compared to the CRA, the City has shown similar trends toward a decrease in ownership, but

ownership is still likely the largest housing tenure segment for the coming few years. Unlike the

CRA and City, the County decline in the number of owner occupied units has been far less drastic

since 2000, dropping from 69.5% in 2000 to 58.6% in 2016. This change demonstrates that, while

ownership is an issue in the CRA and the City, there are areas elsewhere in the County that still

have strong ownership percentages.

3:2. Owner Occupied Units by Value

Irrespective of housing tenure is the importance of housing values, which drives property tax roll

revenue. One thing that the CRA has in common with the City and the County is the fact that the

largest segments of housing value are below $99,999. Roughly 58% of owner occupied homes

within the CRA are less than $100,000, while another 24% fall between $100,000 and $199,999.

Approximately half of the City and the County housing stock is below $99,999, and the percentage

of homes at the county level between $100,000 and $199,999 is comparable to the percentage of

homes within the CRA with the same values.

Table 9: Owner Occupied Units by Housing Value

Live Oak CRA City of Live Oak Suwannee County

Housing Value 2016 2021 2016 2021 2016 2021

<$50,000 62 54 394 342 2,740 2,306

$50,000-$99,999 41 29 304 212 3,013 2,044

$100,000-$149,999 27 33 228 273 1,633 2,272

$150,000-$199,999 16 24 154 237 1,313 2,025

$200,000-$249,999 11 13 129 159 904 1,130

$250,000-$299,999 5 7 36 44 537 666

$300,000-$399,999 4 3 65 49 893 729

$400,000-$499,999 7 7 42 41 331 345

$500,000-$749,999 1 1 20 20 226 230

$750,000-$999,999 0 0 0 0 29 37

$1,000,000+ 3 2 19 11 91 43

Median $82,317 $105,303 $99,589 $125,641 $103,123 $134,408

Average $133,192 $138,873 $147,322 $151,135 $155,536 $162,932

2016 and 2021 data based on ESRI Business Analyst Online projections.

The median value of homes in the CRA, though, is far less than the median value of homes in the

City and the County. Compared to the City, the median value of homes is 21% less than the City,

and 25% less than the County. These housing values in the CRA, coupled with the existing

conditions in neighborhoods with high vacancy rates, poorly maintained homes and yards, or

28

dilapidated mobile homes, may indicate that the actual value of these homes is lower due to

neighborhood conditions as opposed to structural conditions. While many of the homes in the

CRA are in the oldest part of Live Oak, not all older homes are in a state of disrepair.

3:3. Households by Income

Data on households by income is not surprising as it generally follows from the data on households

by median home value. This statement holds true for the CRA and the City, but for Suwannee

County, the second and third largest household income bracket are in the $50,000-$74,999 range

and $35,000-$49,999 range, respectively. These income levels could support housing in the range

of $105,000 to $225,000. Using a more conservative estimate based on the median household

income, though, provides supportable housing in 2016 in the range of $82,491 to $109,323 and in

2021 in the range of $92,967 to $124,017. Then again, simply having more income does not

necessarily signify a willingness to spend more money on a more expensive house, but the income

levels exist in the County to support single-family housing development at a higher amount than

the existing housing stock.

Table 10: Number of Households by Income

Income Live Oak CRA City of Live Oak Suwannee County

Year 2016 2021 2016 2021 2016 2021

<$15,000 85 78 543 564 3,213 3,325

$15,000-$24,999 71 58 516 421 2,476 2,075

$25,000-$34,999 55 60 429 345 2,161 1,630

$35,000-$49,999 54 62 439 510 2,845 2,625

$50,000-$74,999 49 58 360 431 3,005 3,659

$75,000-$99,999 17 19 167 208 1,432 1,787

$100,000-$149,999 14 15 87 102 860 1,050

$150,000-$199,999 - 1 9 12 250 331

$200,000+ 2 2 18 18 222 235

Total 347 353 2,568 2,611 16,464 16,717

Median Household Income $ 27,497 $30,989 $ 29,409 $34,077 $ 36,441 $41,339

Source: 2016 and 2021 data based on ESRI Business Analyst Online projections.

3:4. Cost Burden

Due to the small size of the Live Oak CRA, the best available data for owner occupied cost burden

are for the City of Live Oak. These data from the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse Housing

Cost Burden demonstrate that there are large segments of the City where the monthly housing

costs exceed 30% of the median household income. Given the statistics in the CRA compared to

29

the City, it is likely that there is a higher percentage of households within the CRA that has a large

percentage of monthly income dedicated to housing costs.

Table 11: Ownership Affordability

Housing Costs as a Percentage of Income: 2010 2015 2020

30% or less 69.0% 71.9% 71.9%

30.1%-50% 16.1% 14.4% 14.6%

More than 50% 14.9% 13.6% 13.5%

Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Studies, University of Florida

Based on the data in Table 11, roughly 31% of the City’s population spent more than 30% of the

median household income on housing-related costs in 2010. This number drops only slightly in

2015 to 28% and 28% based on projections for in 2020. Despite projected increases in median

household income, higher incomes in the future do not appear to have a significant impact on the

housing cost burden for owner occupied housing. Another factor to keep in mind is that there is

demand for affordable single-family housing in the City based on these data, with nearly one in

four people spending above average amounts of their monthly income on housing alone.

The data for rental affordability provides some strong evidence of the need for current and future

affordable rental units. Based on data available for the City (Table 12), over 60% of renters are

spending 30% or more of their monthly income on rent. Roughly a third of all renters are spending

more than 50% of their monthly income on rent, which is far greater than the typical 30% monthly

housing costs.

Table 12: Rental Affordability

Rental Costs as a Percentage of Income: 2010 2015 2020

30% or less 38.4% 38.0% 39.1%

30.1%-50% 28.3% 26.4% 28.0%

More than 50% 33.3% 35.6% 32.9%

Source: Shimberg Center for Housing Studies, University of Florida

A greater concern is the fact that the largest segment of the renters spending in excess of 50% on

rent per month make 30% or less of the area median household income. This fact means that the

segment of the population with the lowest incomes has the highest rent burden. There are two

ways to resolve this fact: grow the economy, which can be difficult and take an extensive amount

of time and effort; or ensure that future housing strategies have at least a portion of housing,

whether single family or multifamily, built to accommodate households looking for more

affordable housing options.

30

3:5. Current Real Estate Sale Listings Using Zillow and Related Websites

Examining current real estate listings provides additional real-time insight into the current housing

stock in the County. Based on an analysis of listings from Zillow and other assorted real estate

websites, a current picture of the for sale housing situation can be useful to determine if the data

throughout this report mirror the current real estate situation. These listings were compiled

between July 9th and July 10th, 2016. All of the for-sale listings fell outside of the boundaries of

the CRA and, in some cases, even beyond the city limits elsewhere in the county. Several of the

older homes on lots less than half an acre were near downtown Live Oak, but located on blocks

adjacent to the CRA.

The typical home for sale based on this sample had three bedrooms, two bathrooms, was 1,614

square feet on a two-acre property, had an average listing price of $108,474, and was built in 1978.

Almost all of the higher-end, more recently built homes listed for sale were located in either the

Savannah Plantation or Armstrong Estates subdivisions in southwest Suwannee County. There

were 12 mobile homes for sale, including three mobile homes that were in foreclosure. The

average price of these mobile homes was $70,367 and, while many of them were built since 2000,

there was one mobile home that was built in 1974. Several of the older, more typical single-family

homes situated on smaller lots near the CRA were, on average, listing for sale at a lower price.

This lower price likely reflects the age of the home, the size of the lot, and general neighborhood

conditions. The seven highest-priced listings were for homes built in 1994 or later, listed for sale

at between $169,000 and $335,000, had three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a square

footage of 1,500 to slightly over 3,300.

3:6. Current Rental Listings Using Zillow, Apartments.com, and Related Websites

Data for rental listings in Live Oak were difficult to track down. In some online databases, the

Live Oak rental market is actually listed as part of the Jacksonville rental housing market, while

other databases list it in the Tallahassee rental market. This fact means that the City and County

are small enough to not have their own distinct rental market, which is odd given that the largest

segment of housing tenure within the population is based on being renters. Part of the issue is that

there are few apartment complexes in the City and County, but several hundred single-family

homes and mobile homes available for rent that might use less traditional means such as word of

mouth to advertise available units.

Of the units available for rent, the monthly rent ranged from $450 for a one bedroom, one bath

unit that was 600 square feet to a four-bedroom, two-bathroom house with 1,944 square feet for

$1,200 per month. An analysis of apartment complexes revealed that many of the complexes, such

as Horizon Circle, Village Oaks, and Meadows Apartments were built in 1990 or earlier. On the

other end of the spectrum, Mel-Margo Apartments and Silas Oaks were built in 2006 or more

recently. Despite the number of units, there are few if any subsidized rentals in the City, although

there is demand for affordable housing throughout the CRA and the City.

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4: Conclusions and Recommendations for Implementation of Comprehensive Housing

Analysis

This Report examined housing within and outside of the Live Oak CRA to determine additional

types of housing that may be supported within the CRA in the near future. This section proposes

multiple recommendations that may encourage additional residential development that can be

supported by the local population. This local population is not solely current and future inhabitants

of the Live Oak CRA, but more broadly includes the population in the City of Live Oak, Suwannee

County, and the region.

4:1. Recommendation 1: Targeted Areas

The neighborhoods served by the Live Oak CRA are extremely unique, meaning that any housing

policy must be locally targeted to certain areas as opposed to a generic approach to future housing.

In areas that are closer to the main roads, such as Ohio Avenue (US Hwy 129) and Howard Street,

(US Hwy 90) multifamily makes more sense given the scattered locations of developable property

as well as the current commercial zoning allowing for multifamily uses. In areas not near major

roads, assuming that there is enough land to support single-family residential development, the

goal should be to build residential housing that is similar in density to the nearest existing single-

family developments. This type of development will strengthen the existing neighborhoods

without changing the current nature of those existing neighborhoods. The main difference would

be single-family structures on smaller lots currently occupied by mobile homes in the central area

of the CRA. Where developable land is in greater supply, lower-density single-family residential

development could be supported. This possibility is most likely in the southeastern section of the

CRA currently zoned for agricultural uses and largely undeveloped.

4:2. Recommendation 2: Property Tax Abatements and/or Related Incentives for New Single-

Family Residential Development and Relocation

One issue with building new single-family residential development is the fact that simply building

more housing may not be enough to grow the population within the CRA. This possibility may

mean that people aren’t willing to locate within the CRA not due to the lack of housing, but due

to other issues that may exist. The possibility of property tax abatements to relocate in the CRA

may be enough to get some people to relocate, but any program related to property tax abatements

would require multiple levels of governmental approval, in addition to caveats that would require

residents to pay the full amount of past and current taxes if they were to relocate out of the area

within a certain amount of time. As an example, let’s say a property tax abatement program offers

five years of some percentage of abated property tax. One condition could be that the property

owner must live in the home for ten years. Should the property owner choose to relocate before

ten years, then that property owner would be required to pay back some portion of the originally

abated taxes. The goal here is to hopefully ensure that the homes don’t revert to rentals.

32

Additionally, while abating property taxes might not be optimal, the returns on this investment

may be reflected in greater overall neighborhood values and stability.

Once the homes are built, property tax abatement may need to be coupled with additional

incentives to attract people in the prime working age population bracket of 25-54 years old. For

recent college graduates, it could mean paying off a percentage of their outstanding college loans

if they are willing to relocate to the CRA for a specific number of years. Given the generally lower

incomes in the area, a tax credit for down payment on a house or down payment assistance may

be useful.

4:3. Recommendation 3: Enforceable Code Enforcement

The code enforcement guidelines need to be strengthened to foster neighborhood reinvestment by

current residents or to enable the City of Live Oak to levy fines and possibly liens on properties

that are not code compliant. As the liens accrue, the possibility exists to pursue foreclosing on

these properties based on code violation liens and/or possible property tax liens. This

recommendation is the stick approach to enforcing existing codes to the greatest extent possible

and would require the full support of the Live Oak City Commission.

4:4. Recommendation 4: Low-Interest Revolving Loan for Home Repairs

This recommendation reflects the existing façade improvement grant program tailored to

commercial uses. The only difference is the creation of a fund that would enable residents,

specifically residents able to show documented proof of income, to obtain low-interest loans for

exterior home improvement repairs and upkeep. This approach is the carrot approach in working

with residents who may have lower incomes that want to take better care of their property, but do

not have the financial means to make those repairs. Residents utilizing this competitive program

would be required to show some proof of income to justify qualifying for the low-interest loan.

Should this program be successful, it may spur additional revenue that can then be re-allocated for

future residents. The initial funding for this program may be required to come from a portion of

the CRA’s revenue.

4:5. Recommendation 5: Small-Scale Landbanking of Platted, Undeveloped Parcels

There are several areas throughout the CRA that were platted decades ago that may need to be

revisited and possibly re-platted. The possibility exists that targeted housing policies may enable

these platted properties to finally be developed, but in some cases the platting could be outdated.

Depending on the cost of these parcels, it might make sense for the CRA to attempt to acquire

contiguous parcels for the purpose of small-scale landbanking for smaller multifamily

development and/or small-scale residential development in the south central and west central

sections of the CRA.

4:6. Recommendation 6: Marketing the Live Oak CRA and City of Live Oak

This recommendation may be one of the most important recommendations provided in this report,

despite marketing being largely separate from much of this analysis. The data on population for

the CRA and the City point to limited, slow population growth in the coming decades, yet

Suwannee County is expected to continue to grow, as are several surrounding counties. The CRA

and the City of Live Oak are great places to live and work, but many people and businesses may

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not know why. A multi-tiered marketing campaign may not seem important, but the success of

any housing strategy is based on the willingness of people to inhabit whatever housing may be

built. A focus on business attraction and/or retention may generate jobs that people would be

willing to relocate to Live Oak to work. This report examined the data underlying the current and

future existing conditions, but a marketing strategy can tell this story much better to the greater

population in the region. It would be great if people would come for the housing, but housing is

just one component of several life-changing decisions. There are no guarantees that everyone will

relocate to Live Oak or to within the CRA boundaries just based on marketing, but if people know

all that the area has to offer, it is much easier to sell the Live Oak lifestyle in general than it is to

sell a specific home.

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