City of Vancouver Transportation Vehicle & Fuels - Strategy & Policy

Analysis for 100% Renewable by 2050

• Prepared for Malcolm Shield, City of Vancouver

• Authored by:• Craig Louie, SysEne Consulting• Andreas Truckenbrodt, Truckenbrodt Clean Energy Consulting

July 28, 2015

26 July 2016 Commercial Confidential Sysene Consulting Inc. 1

Summary

• Achieving a goal of 100% renewable transportation in the City of Vancouver (CoV) by 2050 is the most challenging task (vs. buildings etc.).

• Efficiency, reducing vehicle km travelled, new mobility concepts are required.

• Transportation vehicles will need to be a combination of battery electric, fuel cell electric, and biofuel internal combustion. Electric vehicles are not likely practical or economic in the 2050 timeframe for larger vehicles or heavy duty transport.

• Fuel sources need to become fully renewable. • Relatively easy for electricity and hydrogen to be fully renewable and economic in

BC because of the large amount of hydroelectric• More difficult for biofuels because conventional biofuels have many issues and

advanced biofuels to address those issues have uncertain availability

• There is worldwide competition for renewable transportation vehicles, and Vancouver will need to become one of the leading regions to acquire sufficient vehicle supply

• Policy support must be strong, aggressive, complete, and leading. Both demand and supply (i.e. ZEV mandate) policies are required. While the CoVis not responsible for all policies, the CoV must lead and influence all policies to come together in an integrated and strong way.

2

Three principal strategies to reduce GHGsfrom Transportation

• Transform vehicles

• Transform fuels

• Transform land use

3

Vehicles

Fuels

Land use

4

Hierarchy of fuels

Renewable Alternative Fuels for Road Transport

Fuel Road passenger Road freight

range short med long short med long

Renewable electricity

Renewable biofuel (liquid)

Renewable hydrogen

Renewable natural gas (RCNG/RLNG)

5

Renewable Alternative Fuels for British Columbia

6

• Each fuel has pros and cons• Energy policy depends on region

Renewable Electricity

Renewable Hydrogen

Renewable Biofuel(liquid)

Renewable natural gas (RCNG/RLNG)

Engine Type EV EV ICE ICE

Fuel Cost Very good Good Good Good

Supply Availability Very good Poor Poor Poor

Emissions None None Some Some

Cruising Range Poor Good Very good Good

Dedicated Infrastructure

Good Poor Poor Poor

Renewable Transport Fuels

Transportation Fuel Renewable source & inputs Non-renewable source & inputs

Electricity Hydro, Wind, Solar, RenewableBiomethane

Coal, Natural gas, Nuclear?, Some Biomethane. Fossil fuel production.

Hydrogen Hydro, Wind, Solar, Renewable Biomethane

Coal, Natural gas, Nuclear?, some Biogas. Fossil fuel production.

Biodiesel Waste fats or renewable oils + Renewable methanol

Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. most methanol is from natural gas

Bioethanol Renewable inputs: fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing

Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing

Biomethane Waste to energy (anaerobic digesters, landfills)

Fossil fuel inputs: e.g. fertilizer, pesticides, production, processing

7

• There are different definitions of what is a renewable fuel• A complete renewable definition considers the primary energy source and all

inputs in the production chain• Worldwide renewable fuel standard policies are evolving and becoming more

sustainable, i.e. in the EU:• http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels/sustainability-

criteria

Mobility as a Service Concept

8

50 Big Ideas for Electric Mobility

http://cleanenergyministerial.org/Portals/2/pdfs/EVI_2014_EV-City-Casebook.pdf 9

Toyota Vision

10EV=electric vehicles, PHV = plug-in-hybrid vehicles, HV=hybrid vehicles, FCHV=fuel cell hybrid vehicles

German Vision Energiewende

11

Toyota Vision

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Potential Policy Support

13

Only some of these are within CoV jurisdiction

Choose pathways through analysis and buy-in to develop policies - Support goal, supportable by key stakeholders, economic, feasible

Appendix

14

Vehicles

15

EU McKinsey Light Duty Powertrain Study Scenarios, Biofuels ruled out because of sustainability concerns

16

17

EU McKinsey Light Duty Powertrain Study Scenarios, Biofuels ruled out because of sustainability concerns

System Cost: EV vs FCV

18

Hybrid Vehicle Launch Trend

19California AB8 Report 2014

EU Total Cost of Ownership Vehicle Costs

McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 20

EU Powertrain Scenario 2030

McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 21

EU BEV Economic Gap (Vehicle + Infrastructure)

22McKinsey EU Powertrain Study

EU FCEV Economic Gap (Vehicle + Infrastucture)

23McKinsey EU Powertrain Study

24Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014

Alternatives for long haul trucksTruck engines exist for RNG/liquid biofuels

25Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014

Alternatives for single unit trucksTruck engines exist for RNG/liquid biofuels

Fuel and technology alternatives for commercial vehicles, VTT, 2014 26

No fuss alternative for diesel fuels: paraffinic diesel

Still makes road CO2, NOx etc.Expensive fuel

Energy, Fuels, Infrastructure

27

US Transport Energy Consumption

EIA.gov 28

US Transport Energy Consumption

29

• Consumer EV’s not included as they are on residential, commercial and industrial meters

• Ethanol is primarily in 10% blends• Biodiesel for buses and trucking

EIA.gov

US Renewable Share

30

Slowing growth?

EIA.gov

31http://www.biofuelstp.eu/road-biofuels.html

Transport fuels

• Transport is ~ 25% of total energy consumption• Road is ~ 75% of total transport• Trucks and buses are ~ 20% within road transport

Automotive Pathways

32

EU Projections, Current Trends and Policies

State of the Art on Alternative Fuels Transport Systems in the EU, DG Move, 201533

Alternative EU Scenarios

34State of the Art on Alternative Fuels Transport Systems in the EU, DG Move, 2015

California Marc Jacobson 2050 Scenario

Marc Jacobson et al, Stanford, UC Davis, etc. 35

No biofuels

Transportation by 100% EV, battery or fuel cell, cryo-H2 aircraft

SysEne: No biofuels is far too optimistic for heavy duty, marine, aircraft

Liquid Biofuel Pathways

Staffan Lundgren/Volvo 2014 36

An energy carrier that can bring high Diesel internal combustion engine energy efficiency, independent of the fossil or renewable origin (source to wheel)

Biofuels

• Pros• The Only practical non-fossil fuels for most aircraft, most heavy industry, and

most marine

• Cons• Acceptability issues

• Competition with food• Habitat erosion• Water usage• Soil erosion• Many biofuels have significant fossil fuel inputs to attain yield and economics (fertilizer,

pesticides, production, processing• Energy Return on Investment is low, and sometimes negative

• Some regions do not consider conventional biofuels to be renewable

• Advanced biofuels are in development targeting some of these challenges but it is uncertain when they can be available

37

38

Liquid fuels

All Pathways

Fuel and Technology Alternatives for Buses, VTT, 2012 39

Energy Density Comparison

40

advantage

California Light Duty 2050 Scenario

41California ACC Report 2014

SysEne: This scenario only makes sense if biofuels are ruled out because of sustainability concerns

EU Infrastructure Investment Required to 2050

EU McKinsey Report 42

BEV, PHEV FCEV

Not the same y axis scale

Smart Grid Required for EV Charging

43

Smart Grid

44

Hydrogen Station Implementation in Japan

45

EU H2 Costs

McKinsey EU Powertrain Study 2012 46

400 km range = 4-5 kg H2

Full tank by electrolysis is 20-25 Euros

$28 to $25 CADTaxes, profit not included

H2 Filling Station Costs California

ETVC Report 2014 47

Onsite Electrolysis is the most expensive but not overly so

World Wide Hydrogen 2015

48

Policies

49

50“California’s Transportation GHG Policy Model” Dan Sperling, UC Davis 2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Strong Demand Policy

Strong Supply andDemand Policy

California ZEV targets

Weak Demand Policy

Supply-focused policies may be essential for PEV sales

51

PEV newMarketshare (BC)

Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

EV Market Share and Incentives

IEA Global EV Outlook 2015 52

• Higher EV Market share supported by significant incentives• Canada has a low EV Market share at 0.3% in 2014

EU EV Demand Policies

EV Report AS & McKinsey 53

California GHG Emissions Standards

54California ACC Report 2014

California Criteria Emissions Benefits

55California ACC Report 2014

California Scenario

56California ACC Report 2014

Northeast States Policies

http://neesc.org/publications/2015_roadmaps/ 57

8-State ZEV Action Plan

58

• Support ZEV commercialization through consistent statewide building codes and standards for

installing EVSE, streamlined metering options for homes equipped with EVSE, opportunities to

reduce vehicle operating costs, increased electric system efficiency through time-of-use electricity

rates and net metering for electric vehicles, and integrating ZEVs with renewable energy initiatives;

• Establish ZEV purchase targets for governmental agency fleets, explore opportunities for

coordinated vehicle and fueling station equipment procurement, work to provide public access to

government fleet fueling stations, and include commitments to use ZEVs in state contracts with

auto dealers and car rental companies where appropriate

• Evaluate the need for, and effectiveness of, monetary incentives to reduce the upfront purchase

price of ZEVs as well as non-monetary incentives, such as high occupancy vehicle lane access,

reduced tolls, and preferential parking, and pursue these incentives as appropriate;

• Work to develop uniform standards to promote ZEV consumer acceptance and awareness, industry

compliance, and economies of scale, including adopting universal signage, common methods of

payment and interoperability of EVSE networks, and reciprocity among states for non-monetary

ZEV incentives;

• Cooperate with vehicle manufacturers, electricity and hydrogen providers, the fueling infrastructure

industry, corporate fleet owners, financial institutions, and others to encourage ZEV market growth;

• Share research and develop a coordinated education and outreach campaign to highlight the

benefits of ZEVs, including collaboration with related national and regional initiatives; and

• Assess and develop potential deployment strategies and infrastructure requirements for the

commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

ZEV = zero emission vehicle, EVSE = electric vehicle supply equipment (charging station)