'1AD-RI9 873 ENEMY PRISONER OF MAR AND CIVILIAN INTERNEE RATES FOR 1/1NORTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTHWEST ASIR(U) ARMY SOLDIERSUPPORT CENTER FORT BENJAMIN HARRISON IN ANRLYSI..

NCLASSIFIED M L COOK ET RL. APR 86 F/G 15/3lll

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0 SOLDIER SUPPORT CENTER

ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR AND CIVILIAN INTERNEE RATES

FOR

00 NORTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTHWEST ASIA

cn

STUDY REPORT

C. COMBAT DEVELOPMENTS DIRECTORATE

APRIL 1986 JUL0 8198

86 77 134

r;"P0RT DOCUMENTP'JION P/GEla. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 10. RESTRICTIVE M, (KINGS

UNCLASSIFIED

2a SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3 DISTRIBuTION/AAILABILITY OF REPORT

2b. DECLASSIFICATION IDOWNGRADING SCHEDULE UNCLAS S IF IED/UNLIMITED

4. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S)

6a. NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 1 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7a. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATIONAnalysis Division (If applicable)

Combat Developments Dir. ATSG-DD

6c. ADDRESS (Cty, State, and ZiP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, State, and ZIP Code)Commander, USASSCATTN: ATSG-DDFort Benjamin Harrison, IN 46216

Ba. NAME OF FUNDING/SPONSORING j8b. OFFICE SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBERORGANIZATION (If applicable)

USA Soldier Support Center

8c- ADDRESS (City, State, and ZiP Code) 10 SOURCE OF FUNDING NUMBERS

PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORK UNITELEMENT NO. NO. NO. ACCESSION NO.

11. TITLE (Include Security Classification)

(UNCLAS) ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR (EPW)/CIVILIAN INTERNEE (CI) RATE STUDY

-12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) Mary Lynn Cook, Robert McConnell, Anna Faye Brandenburg,Dina Philips

13a. TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED 14. DATE OF REPORT (Year, Month, Day) 5. PAGE COUNT

Final FROM TO_ April 1986 1 6+Tabs

16. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION

Research was conducted under the direction of Major Kenneth W. Hughes,Chief, Analysis Division, Directorate of Combat Develooments, USASSC

17 COSATI CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)1FIELD I GROUP SUB-GROUP Enemy Prisoners of war Rear Battle EPW Factors

Civilian Internees NATO EPW/CI Rates

EPW Capture Rates Prisoners of War'9 ABS-TRACT (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number)

a. Purpose. 'This paper documents work by the US Army Soldier SupportCenter (SSC).7which was performed to review and redefine Enemy Prisoner of War(EPW) and Civilian Internee (CI) rates considering NATO forces in a defensiveposture.

b. Methodologyt * <

(I) EPW,- Analogous historical sample selected. .

(2) CI.- Factor given in FM 101-10-1 applied to target population.c. Resultsi., , .

(1) A Composite R'ate for EPWs (includes rear battle captures).

(2) An A(idit Trail of historical rates given in FM 101-10-1.

(3) Estimated number of CIs. ._

20. DISTRIBUTION /AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION

* aUNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED - SAME AS RPT. 0 DTIC USERS UNCLASSIFIED

22a NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b. TELEPHONE (include Area Code) 22c. OFFICE SYMBOL

WILT L. HAM, CPT (317) 542-3815 ATSG-DDN

DO FORM 1473,84 MAR 83 APR edition may be used until exhausted SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE

All other editions are obsolete

T .W .-.- U, V- -

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pag e

1. PUrpose..............................

2. Backgroutnd...........................1

A Methodology...........................

4. Results...........................

5J. Use of Historical Rates.................

Tasking Messaqes........................................... Tab A

FPISTALS EPW Rates.......................................... Tab B(CAA Message)

Deri~vation of EFW Rates +or NEA........................... Tab C

Derivation o-f EFW Rates for SWA........................... Tab D

ConSLlAnt=s/Bibiiography,, (NEA)............................ Tab E

ConSUltants/Dibi 'rah (t).......................Tab F

orr

FilQ .0

2........................ . .. L

ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR EPW ICIVILIAN INTERNEE (CI)

RATE STUDYFOR

NORTHEAST ASIA (NEA) AND SOUTHWEST ASIA (SWA) THEATERS

S1. Purpose. The purpose of this paper is to document work bythe US Army Soldier Support Center (SSC) which was performed in-response to taskings by HQ, TRADOC and Deputy Chief of Staff forOperations (DCSOPS) to update/validate EPW/CI rates in the forceroundout model, Force Analysis Simulation of TheaterAdministrative and Logistics Support (FASTALS), for NEA and SWAtheaters. Copies of tasking messages are attached at Tab A.This unclassified report documents the study methodology andresults, but does not contain the derivation of the estimated

number of CIs nor EPWs for SWA. This information is documented-in a classified supplement on file at SSC.

2. BackLground. In September 1985, the SSC completed a study toestablish EPW/CI rates for NATO forces. SSC provided the ConceptsAnalysis Agency (CAA) with the required information on 20September 1985. On 27 September 1985, the VCSA approved the SSCrates for NATO force planning. On 6 March 1986, the GeneralOfficer Steering Committee reaffirmed thee rates for use inTAA-93. The current study is in response tcr follow-on tasi.ings toprovide information on other theaters for ,..-e in CAA's FASTALSModel during the TAA-9. process. Study resuLts for NEA and SWAwere telephonically approved by the Combined Arms Center,Ccmbined Arms Integration Directorate, on 14 April 1986. Ratesfor use in FASTALS were provided to CAA on 17 April 1986 (see TabB).

* *.Methodol -gyj.

a. EFW RP_'rtes. SSC's approach to the determination o-f EFWrates +or both NEA and SWA forces was the same is that used inthe NATO study. Analogous historical samples were selected. Ithad been determined during the previous study that there was alack of information available +rom existinq automated wartimemodels and war games. Because there are defined scenarios forpossible future conflicts in these theaters, relatively small."matched" samples can be used. The better the match, ,f course,the more precise the resulting estimates. Historical sampleswere selected based on the recommendations of subject mattere,'perts and further supported by detailed resiearch. Toaccomodate the requirement to provide rates for use in FASTAL.S,Study resLits for EPW capture rates are given as the number ofprisoners captured per US combat soldier (divisional equivalents)per day. A separate rate is qiven for each of four combatintensities; i.e., intense, moderate, reduced and reserve.

.. . . .. . . . . - - - - - - ". . -' - . .. " - "- ." - - -"- -"- .< " "., .-1.'

(1)_ NEA. The first year of the Korean War,-, less periodswhen theo:bttned United Nations (UN) Forces were on theoffesnok1l: -0 s determined to be the best available sample forthe pup Of this study. The similarities cited in support ofthe samf*bas analogous to a future conflict in that area were

terrain, avenue of approach, operational art (airLand battle!.war of maneuver, guerilla activity, infiltration, rear battle,isolation from supplies, and numerically superior opposing force.(A list of the primary consultants who assisted and the researchmaterial used is given in Tab E.) In addition to the selectedsample period, two other periods from the Korean War wereevaluated to determine the sensitivity of results to the periodof the war selected.

(2) SWA. The uniqueness of the projected situation forSWA required the selection of two historical samples. One sampleis applicable to an initial portion of the first 180 days FASTALStime period and the second sample is applicable to the remainingportion of the period. Details explaining these two periodscannot be discussed in this unclassified report, but can bereviewed in OPLAN 1008-86. Consultants and research materialsused are listed in Tab F.

(a) The analogous sample selected for the initialperiod was the experience of the Iraqi forces during theirinvasion of Iran in 1980. The sample perio.,d used was 22September through 1 December 1980. A substantial number offactors in this sample were cited by the s-bject matter expertsconsulted to be analogous to the period for which predictions areneeded. These include intensity of conflict, terrain/qeography,force posture, weapons, and cultural/political/religious factors.

(b) The second period was matched with a historicalsample from the Italian campaign in World War II. The capturerate of US prisoners e:<perienced by the Germans during the period10 September 1944 and 4 April 1945 while participating in theGothic Line campaign was determined. AnalogcOus features of thissample incluide terrain, force posture, tactics, isolation fromsupplies, numer-ically superior opposing force, and guerillaActivity.

b. Civilian Internees.

(1) NEA. For the purpose of force structure planning'i.e., Use in FASTALS and TAA-9 ), zero CIs should be assumed forNEA as for NATO. US forces, fighting as an ally with a friendlysovereign go.vernient on that government's own terrain, can assumemInimal problems with CIs. (This position has been endorsed by Mr.W. Hays Parlts, Chief, International Law, Office of the Judge

Ad 'ocate General of -he Army who is considered to be an expert on

*TDCSOF'S clarlfied NEA tas ing as given in Tab A message. Pertelephone guidance on 20 Jan 86, EPW rates were to be determinedfor US forces in a defensive posture.

2

r,)

civilian internees.

(2) SWA

(a) The projected situation for SWA is distinct.1rdifferent than what is projected for NEA in regard t,- fact,-irsaffecting civilian internees. E;xpected heavy civilian resistanceto US forces presence, combined with a government that may beprimarily responsible for inciting the resistance, will result ina substantial number of civilian internees requirinq internmentby US personnel. It is anticipated, however, that manycivilians" desiring to resist US presence will fight with the

military and paramilitary forces and therefore, if captured, willbe classified as EPWs.

(b) CIs are a function of population size in the

geographical area covered by US forces and the hostility level ofthat population. Therefore, it is not possible for FASTALS togenerate the number of CIs expected in this theater. This numbermust be estimated "off-line", as has been done in this study.

..c) A total number of CIs for the entire 180 dayFASTALS period" is provided in the study results. This number was

determined by -stimating the urban and town populations for 1993in the anticipated area of responsibility (AOR) and thenapplying the appropriate foctor from FM 101 -10-1 to thatpopulation. Should the build-up of the CI': over the I' days bedesired. the geogr3phi, cal proqressi cnn of forces during theperic,d _a.n be plotted, ppulations identi T -,d w?.th the

ge,ranhical areas, and the FM fac-:.or applie d to these numbers.

4. Fesul ts .

' .. . . -.. . ..j .1 . . ,: . dr_.t-".hE, :-f.. ... .., (Deri 'ation~s c--:f "- 2.?::.,, :... , t- . *n1 .C

I nt en r;* ? [ -

Reduc _d ., 0

Reset" -. .,2Q1

- - -- . . .... . '. , ' " - I I: . ;.'

" .e , ,-,- . ... 1i • I ,

1 ' - p. . ."' j ! ,., , " ;'¢ ,1' - - - - - . Tut I_-,' : " at .-,- . 7 3. : : ' ,

.:' 1'- ' .- - ,, r ' t in..r - cf th e . ' ; l t] n -iF '.-- i ,r' ,_j±

SC II" ",r-,?' ,- V . .} f - 'rt .V. *' c ' -es £ n, U[ .u t'u 3 c k:-r - dei h" eL t, : t' INr. , h-r, - . e . t ._:rU-2 , . -pt in lf-,r ) which u1 w- rr,-,d

%3

*". ...- -. . . ,%° -... : .. .- • .. .'° .." " '.. ." . - - ' . .

during the first thL.-:.e i.e, n,:rths I, cc. .. :

periods lu E -va ua ed. ' ,l ... nsre cit -in Tab C. I" this caSe . e FWt

si gnti.i-antly changed by vai,g he :-ample period-, ... L .

(.) For planning purposes, zero CIs should be aS U iJdfor NEA. (Reference para 3.b(l) above.)

b. SWA

(1) The following capture rates were experiencedhistorically by the Iraqi forces while on the offensive for thefirst SWA sample.

Intense .0003Moderate .0004Reduced .0002

Reserve .0001

Derivation of these rates requires use of classified data and isnot included in this unclassified report.*

(2) The capture rates of US forces historicallyexperienced by the Germans on the defensive during the sample

period selected are given below.

Intense 1000Moderat e .0004

reduced .0002R=er ve .000i

Deriv aior4 ' these raes is qiven in Tab 0.

f-'>-t.,E'Z (.~f in para 4b~l r-, d U1!...e r--IS ,t J- ] '' J:- i:.r .s :ed L, he r.Lth::,r ,- EP-'s .:- 1 ':: -"1~i r ldp e[- i er:

e . d o . - . r ' , i n F rA .- H o w e - . i " r r' G ' ., hP 4 - r

r th( i ,b e.r- o 4 e n pr 1 so r -r . eci- d i.:- ' -i p t r 1c- Lv, i..!3

forces in the rear- ar-.-i cif opera t i -.

(4) General 1. , Df fer,. .,, J : 3P ur-e r. tes beensinificantly higher- | l-_r, .:Jefensie rates. Th i i. r-ct , hcwe er

th,e result found in th-e 1-wc, a.,-: tad- en WA.

EuI t l 1-_l LCq_- ,_ i con -iderationrs in Ir- arep-p, - v acn From Bep.1*tt or..

The ., -d orbe' f ci 1 1 1 an i n terr es +,or :3WAf:r l:) , y i pr-oje( - r be b71twee 1,) ::- nd 750. -1 1o

A QCa. i i ed p, rt i or-v,-_ f rD .,ppl ement this stud"/ report. are on 1ii e.?t 83C (Peference '>,:.r .orion of EPW/CI fa "eL for SWAJ -.5 Apr'- .

4

1. . . . . . . . . ... .

.....................................................

pe 1: d thAtt a I. -'.: :a.jor- t,' e. th e e [ L.. ii he .,t .-' _-ithin the first few ,'js. (7Th n'Sb-.r+ C£-for3 W -n :.:hased, if required, by appting the methodoloqi Oi o Q1b (2) (c).) Actual -al culations qererati 0q this n.mber

from use of classified data and are riot included in thi sLr-:lassified repcrt.*

c. Historical rates e;iperienced during samples selected arerecommended for use without modifications for the pirpose offorce planning. It should be noted, however, that implicit inthis recommendation is the assumption that differences betweenthe selected samples and the specified scenarios do not

significantly impact the EPW rates.

d. Because FASTALS considers only Army forces, total EPWworkload will not be generated directly from the model.(Specifically, EPWs captured by the Marines will not be in theFASTALS workload estimates.) However, for force planning thisadditional workload should be considered due to the fact thatArmy Military Police personnel are responsible for all EPWscaptured in SWA.

5. Use of Historical Rates. Much research and time were expendedin identifving "matcheo" historical samples for each theater, and

the samples used are c-insidered by subject matter experts to bethe best available. However, riot unexpect-edly, some of the=---Amples match the projected scenarios bett..- than others. Thea-mpies selected for NEA, and pre.viousl, f.. NATO, are consideredP r - 1 ,- rihed . Howeer the 1 arqe nuM! %r of unknowns for SWA:.,d the nuritber of a.ssumtions necessary to project the scenario

_ oatched -ampli rq mulch more dif+icult. T t is therefore* nti_-ipat- , $~~t:the rec i. sic n of the SWA estimates is less thant<raL ct t-e cther- t-vc theaters.

*- 1a f * 1 ' -:'rt 'n- = .<U s pPIemert t h is stuid,,v report are on fi e

4- ers.. Dvt c~f EIC--I RF-1es for '3WA, 2' tq-rii1 ,<i

S5

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AAFES COMSY DOI COMMSPT COMSEC SSD 972ND FILECPY M&R

RTTUZYUW RUEAOWOSS27 3S217i3-UUUU-wRUFEAAA*ZNR UUUUUR i81602Z DEC 65SFM DA WASHOC //DAMO-FDZ//TO RUCLAIA/CDRTRADOC FT MONROE VA//ATZD-SE// v"INFO RUCLBWA/CDRMPSCHTNGCEN FT MCCLELLAN AL//ATZN-MP-CFDRUWTFHA/CDRUSACAC FT LEAVENWORTH KS//ATZL-CA//RUFEAAACR,, "T BEN HARRISON IN,/ATSG-DDN//RUEiDW'OIRECTOR US ARMY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY

I //CSCA-FOS#/RUEADWD/OA WASHOC //OAPE-HRE//STUNCLASS"_ E-TL-! ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR AND CIVILIAN INTERNEES (EPW/C[)

FACTORS FOR FASTALSA, LTR, HQOA, DAPE-MPM-CS. 7 MAR 8 , SUBJECT: ENEMY PRISONER OF-WAR (EPWI CAPTURE RATES.Be MSG, HQOA, OACS-ZB, 03143OZ AUG 85, SUBJECT: FORCE STRUCTUREALIGNMENT*1 REFERENCE A TASKED THE US ARMY SOLDIER SUPPORT CENTER (SSC) ToRESOLVE THE MP FAA ISSUE PERTAINING TO EPW FACTORS FOR THE REARBATTLE. ADDITIONALLY. IT WAS REQUESTED THAT THE COMBINED ARMS CEN.

P AGE 02 RUEADWO5827 UNCLASTER PUBLISH THE RESULTS IN FM 101-10-102P REFERENCE a TASKED THE SSC TO REVIEW AND REDEFINE EPW/Cl RATES

AS THEY RELATE TO NATO FORCES IN A DEFENSIVE POSTURE.3, DURING THE RECENT MP FAA ANUUAL REVIEW (11 DEC 85) IT WAS NOTEDTHAT THE MP FAA ISSUE (ISSUE 19-031 PERTAINING TO EPW/CI CAPTURERATES WAS RESOLVED ONLY AS IT PERTAINS TO THE NATO THEATER; IT WASDETERMINED THAT A REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE ISSUE MUST INCLUDEPLANNING FACTORS FOR ALL THEATERS, CONSEQUENTLY. DIRECTOR. FORCEPROGRAMS DIRECTED THAT EPW/CI PLANNING FACTORS FOR THE SOUTHWESTASIA ISWA) AND NORTHEAST ASIA (NEA) THEATERS BE ALIGNED WITH CURRENT

ROUTINE oU N C L A S S I F E 0

..............................................................

JT IE U ' C L A S S I F I D

AIRLAND nATTLE DOCTNINE;4$ REQUEST ACTION bE INITIATED TO VALIDATE CURRENT EPW/CI PLANNINA

3. FACTORS FOR $W& AND NEA THEATERS. IT IS FURTHER REMUESTED THAT THEVALIDATED FACTORS BE PROVIOED THIS.HQ NLT 5 MAR 86.S. POC T4IS HQ IS MAJ WHITE, DAMO-FDL. AUTOVON 22q4,OSS2oST

, '5827

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/ 6JECT ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR AND CIVILIAN INTERNEESFACTORS FOR FORCE ANALYSIS SIMULATION OF THEATERADMINISTRATION AND LOGISTICS SUPPORT

A? MSj. No n116027z QEC 6s. SA.is REQUEST SSC TAKE THE LEAD IN ACCOMPLISHING THE HO OA TASKS

" IDENTIFIED IN REF A;2 THE POC IS LTC SMITH, AV 680-3477.

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CDR USACAC FT LEAVENWORTH KS //ATZI -CAF-F/ATZL-CAI-S//

CDR THIRD US ARMY FT MCPHERSON GA //AFRD-PM/

SCDR INTEL CEN FT HUACHUCA AZ //ATSI-HI//

CDR FORSCOM FT MCPHERSON GA //AFPM-RP//

* UNCLAS

* SUBJ: ENEMY PRISONER OF WAR-AND CIVILIAN INTERNEE {EPW/CII FACTORS

* FOR FORCE ANALYSIS SIMULATION OF THEATER ADMINISTRATIVE AND

LOGISTICS SUPPORT {FASTALS}

* A. MSG, HQ DA, DAMO-FDZ, 1816027Z DEC 85, SAB.

* B. MSG, HO TRADOC, ATCD-SE, 20130OZ DEC 85, SAB.

*C. MSG, CAA, CSCA-FO, 171506Z JAN 86, SUBJ: EPU/CI RATES FOR SWA

b ANJD NEA.s4 1. REFERENCE A IDENTIFIED A HQ DA REQUIREMENT TO VALIDATE EPUJ/CI32 RATES BEING USED IN FASTALS FOR NEA AND SWiA. REFERENCE B TASKED THE

OiST11

ATZI-CS

-ID 4 80 Cl $'ASCL -04

IATSG-DDN

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)' 2 O 1

.02o,03' UUUU: 1061415Z

NO

SSC TO ACOMPLISH THIS ACTION.

2. THE NEWTOPW CAPTURE RATES FOR NEA AND SWA ARE PROVIDED BELOW

IN THE FORMAT SPECIFIED BY CONCEPTS ANALYSIS AGENCY IN REFERENCE C.

THESE RATES HAVE BEEN REVIEWED BY THE COMBINED ARMS CENTER.

DETAILED STUDY METHODOLOGY CAN BE FOUND IN THE FINAL REPORT CUR-

RENTLY BEING WRITTEN BY THE STUDY TEAM.

A. NEA.

INTENSE .0003

MODERATE .0004

REDUCED .0002

RESERVE .0001

B. SWA.

INTENSE .0003

MODERATE .0004

REDUCED .0002

RESERVE .0001

1 3. CIVILIAN INTERNEES {CIS}.

A. SWA. THE NUMBER OF CIS FOR SWA IS A FUNCTION OF BOTH THE

"IZE OF THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL AREA OF

6..

£ ,'EO NAMIlE )ICk VVIIUL AO 0"N

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NO

RESPONSi'29M OF US FORCES AND THE HOSTILITY LEVEL OF THAT

POPULATION. T rTHEREFORE, IT IS NECESSARY TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER OF

CIS "OFF-LINE", RATHER THAN BY FASTALS, UNLESS MODIFICATIONS ARE

MADE TO THE MODEL. FOR THE TAA-93 PROCESS, THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF

CIS FOR THE FIRST 180 DAYS IS PROJECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3,500 AND

3,750.

B. NEA. THE SITUATION IN NEA FOR CIS IS SIMILIAR TO THAT FOR

NATO. THEREFORE, FOR TAA-93, ZERO CIS SHOULD BE ASSUMED IN NEA.

4. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FASTALS CONSIDERS ONLY ARMY FORCES IN

THEATER. BECAUSE OF THIS MODEL CHARACTEP:ISTIC, THE NUMBER OF EPWS

EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY !tARINE GROUND TROOPS WILL NOT BE

INCLUDED IN FASTALS WORKLOAD OUTPUT. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT

THE ARMY HAS RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL PRISONERS CAPTURED BY MILITARY

FORCES IN SWA.

5. POC IS MRS. MARY LYNN COOK, AV 699-3813.

3

l i

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UNCLASSIFIED 1161500Z APR 86

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a. 19e0graphic.1 uI 21.:-

cep ~ ru AIQn 16~ SeptLEmber 24 Novem'rrber 1950) as recounterof fensi ve -Act i ons.

C . PO F t Ur e Def eri ve %'ll ore

d.F o r ce S i -7.: V ar ie S rjr sample period.1

e. No. cf pris=oners cztptured: Varies over sample period.1

f. IntensitY, -of Conflik::t Sample period was categorized b,,ci rbat irstensi ty fIntense, M oder ate,* Reduced, Reserve) by

% corI-ult-Lng historian.

CIO. t iuL ationcz. TP; E::'1 ratea; are empresse'i as the numrrber ofEHW '- c -ptured per _-orrbaL: soldier per day. They were derived by

he we i I:jhtE-d avt:eraqe oDf the periodic rates in each 1levelT ntEnsitv-f cf ;.-om-bat, exci pt Reserve. No direct Reser-ve time"

* E~if Lird in the isc-mrip se ~ileFcted, anti the 'ser-ve rate v-ic1 I t d iinjth:- 1 'rzhsi etween . Lensi ties now iT A..rt The t-C-SLAI cn e , f lVem- bel ow:

e -. 004

-*. ri-v ye .000A1

* ~ ~~~~~ Ui iaI-..'' n to h~h' ea~ sL La.

J 1': 5,0 1. 1. 1 1 c1. iJA- u

u i~d .00-

c- r 010 1

Ti da .- UNl st H' r r -ncit.h and -!..~bf. Fi LF A-r r ;',d b, p r i. od w er E ri t i c i.-b 1. frcm i ri1.- ir M'v . he

61 Fi S LC IS vwere t h 7 m( rii a p ph by the E. ii nh P'r rn' h t r nE-. Han dling. .- iof Fr ac' orr ~'Wlr Dt~ i nc the n -~ J Ad t he

t ~c '. -r on [ r or ;-sx4. j..1 L L I1J L I t e C...e rt t_ f !I- -iL I. t- t v~ -I Ia s w-je r f Ii I~ -7 C--c( t hec-r r ef+er rce (- cc i k b,/

FI tE..' r 01 1 ". n1

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t~u~ 2 . .2i~tCtaJ2&J.;-.. ..- - ~ -x -t -aU~StNA~ -N A % Nk .A L% tt~tt

U-.iat~qf these .. ~.,.Isrr which i.--,.

o ra ? 1 9 :h 1:A. zic..Q U(t h L Li': e

C. oPO S r te Urj r. ,e F er --.es)

J. FSc 1 e 0,000 41 i- T'j,.rces :qpos~ing etrmThe Gothic Line .~dH~r'dbqc4- :-, German Miliirf

C. EF'W Data: 40 1 7 3 U-.3)

+. COMPUt~ition of ccomlpoi 1 r,-;te:

40217. = 19.4058 EPW's per day207

19. 405880000 = 0002426

i ri ! - 1 t

1' TT

7:i --M

-. L ... 4

1-Y I1

L' ~28 1 6

0-7x ( 3 ) (L2 Xr!. 7 4 XL-7 X

7+ (1.34) 1 267 = .0002426

.8099516X1 = .0002426XI = .000300

X2 = .000401

X3 = .000222

x = .000060

x I = .0003

x2 = .0004

x3 = .0002

x4 = .0001

4i

C' --

-; .

-+ : .i . l , -L ' •

q~ ~ -.

-.. . K P >.f,._r ,!i,JF[L t .

Lo ell DysonSq Ar4y. Center of ri' .' ."

Lshington, D.C.

er, i (r !~' ... -- i -r-, R., ei red

3J. irms, t 'T C 0. !iilitav'y istc r.

Mr. Jorhn McReynoldsEighth U.S. ArmyKorea

Mr. James B-rnhart, Hi stTrianEiqht , U.S 4" rm'v

1: o-r ea

ur. Jack i;~r

-Ob~ Studi ntitLnr! 'S Ar "' tLmmAvi i and rl;,: .r ,a.Xi %>] 'r." # f-i>:l eqe

I~. !,;] *' -, 'j irt: . q,: , r ; ?flr-

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- • •- f F d. . .' I: ,F"v ' R Ix t .l 4 t - - . ! - *" ;..! ,..

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-. - I - II L -- - - - - - -

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V~~ i .- r

B I BL IC-FAPHY

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Appleman. Roy E.. Lt. Col.. USAR. SOUTH TO THE NAKTONG. NORTH TO

THE YALU. Washington: Government Printing Office. 1961.

Fehrenbach. T. R. THIS KIND OF WAR. New York: The Macmillan

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Heinl. Robert D. Jr. VICTORY AT HIGH TIDE. New York: J. B.

Lippincott Company. 1968.

Hermes, W. G. TPUCE TENT AND FIGHTING FRONT. Washiigton:Office of the Chief of Military History, Department of the Army$1966.

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KOFEA-1QC(. Washington: Office of the Chi.:f of Military History.Department af the Army. 1952.

Leckle. ;c.ter.. ,.'c=nfliat: THE HISTORY OF THE KOREAN WAR.! ,50- 1 9. New -- k: '3. P. Putnam's S_2ns. 1962.

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Mc Pevi' -. J=n A. "The Handling of P' :soners =f War During the

.2rea war." MS. Hq. US Army. _ Milltar'.' History Office,1 96'.

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Miller, John Jr.. Ma:. Owen J. CarroLl. and Margaret E. Tackley.KOREA. 1951-195:. Washington: Office cf the Chief of MilitaryHistory. Department of t-he Army. 166.

miogWaV. Matt-ew B. THE k OREAN WAR. Garden City. N.Y.:DoCL!~ eda'. ': CZ.. Inc.. 19 77.

West ver. 'act. (:- 0. COMBAT SUPPORT IN OREA. Washington:Cor..at Forces -es -

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2

- . Jc c* .A.~... . . .4 . . . . .-. . . . --..- • - . - . -.- : .. '.

hyPERSONNEL CONSULTED SW

Defense. Intelligence AgencyDirector~te of Research, Middle East DivisionfBolling-Air Force BaseWashington, D.C.

Dr. Ernest F. FisherU.S. A~rmy Center of Military History

Washington, D.C.

Colonel David M. GlantzCenter for Land WarfareU.S. Army War CollegeCarlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania

Dr. Jeffery GreenhutU.S. Army Center of Military HistoryWashington, D.C.

Dr. Joseph iK''ipCombat Studies InstituteCommand and General Staff C611egeFt. Leavenworth, K'ansas

Mr. W. Hays ParksChief, International LawOffice of the Judge Advocate General of the ArmyWashington, D.C.

Dr. Roqer SpillerCombat StUdies InstituteCommand and General Staff CollegeFt. Leavenworth, K-.ansas

Third UJ.S. Army Staf-fFt. McPherson, Georgia

7146 1

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(U.K.Y, 1985.

'I Clark, Mark W. , Calculated RigL, Harper and Brothers,

* Publishers, New York.

Clawson, Maj., HQ TUSA, G-5, "EPW/DC Rates Projections", 22 Jan86.

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(S)COMUSARCENT OF-LAN 1008-86(U), DRAFT, Third United StatesArmy, Fort McPherson, Georgia, 31 Dec. 85.

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(S) "Derivation of Enemy Prisoner of War/Ci~iilian Internee Ratesfor Southwest Asia", U.S. Army Soldier 3! utppurt Center, 25

Dunn, i.Keith A. , "Towards A U.S. Military Str.a=teqvy for Southt-estAsia", Strateg~ic Studies Institute, U.S. rArmv War Colieqe.C-ir i sl.e F arracks, Penn. , 70 Sep. 1982.

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* DUPUY, R. Ernest and Trevor N. DLIPUrV The Eric- v'c 1 pedia q fMilitary HJistory. Harper and Row, 197-0.

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Tomorrows" U.S. Navai Institute Froceedin-s. -,, ,

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-,nl't er- :,f Military Hi-ory, United States Army, Washin,.ItorD.C., I -17.

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"ri.ddle-East Intelli qrce 1--r-.e , 1 -$0 3ep. il'? '" YoNo. 12, pp. 89--96.

"Middle-E-st Intellience Surve,", 1-15 Oct. 1',30. Vol. 8.

*' rri d, - r. I J r t l enr- e -urvev". 16-711 Oct. .J 'A J

S"M dd ILe--Ea t [r1 t .-,I I i -ience ur . , -- Nov. VC8 , U- . 9,-l'.N o . t 5 , P ;s .

M idde e- - L01 CcP Serve'', 1,,--0 Nov. -:10 Vol. .3

3

• .- ,t-.. , -" ." ."" '. ". . ..'. , . -'... .......................................................................... "..........-....." ?." " "

-.. . .

No. I-, pp. 12 5 - 12

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