clean energy for all’ - smithschool.ox.ac.uk · osei-kyei, r., and chan, a. p. c. (2015),...
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'Cleanenergyforall’Theimplementa4onofScalingSolarinZambia
Dr.SusannStritzkeResearchAssociateRenewableEnergyWASDConference,London,04/12/2017
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WHO WE ARE
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Establishedin2008throughthegenerositybySirMar4nSmithandhisfamily,aGachedtotheSchoolofGeographyattheUniversityofOxfordWebelievethattoaddressclimatechangeandenvironmentalsustainability,itisessenNaltobringbusinessintotheconversaNonWeseektoapplyimpacAulresearchtodevelopinnova4vesolu4onsforthechallengesfacinghumanityandthemodernfirmProject:‚MakinglightWork’-fundedbytheBriNshAcademytoevaluatesuccessfactorsfortheimplementaNonofScalingSolar–aprogrammedevelopedbytheWorldBank
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ENERGY SITUATION IN ZAMBIA
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ZambiaElectricityProfile
31%Accesstoelectricity
2GWInstalledcapacity(+/-)
83%Hydro-power
GovernmentofZambia(GRZ):UniversalelectricityaccessforallZambiansby2030
99%State-ownedgeneraNon,transmission&distribuNon(Zesco)
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ENERGY SITUATION IN ZAMBIA
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Lowelectrifica4onrate
Hydrodependency-Climatechange
Powerdeficit(est.2016:600-1000MW)
Privateinvestmentinthepowersector(IPPs)isyetverylimited
Highfinancingcosts
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SCALING SOLAR
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ProgrammedesignedbyWorldBank/IFCtofacilitateprivately-fundedon-gridphotovoltaic(PV)energyprojects
OffersarangeofWorldBankresources&servicesina“one-stopshop”packagetogovernments(advisoryservices,standardizedcontracts,stapledofferoffinancing,guaranteesandinsurance...)
Goal:Nme-andcost-efficientimplementaNonofuNlityscalesolarpvprojects
Procurementprocess:selecNonofdevelopersthroughreverseenergyaucNon
Firstrolled-outinZambia;furtherimplementaNoninEthiopia,SenegalandothercountriesinSSAplanned
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SCALING SOLAR IN ZAMBIA
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• FirstsolarPPPinZambia
• Launched2015-iniNatedaferadirecNvebytheZambianPresidentEdgar
LungutotheZambianIndustrialDevelopmentCorporaNon(IDC)toprocure600MWofsolarpowerinordertoovercomethenaNonalenergycrisis
• ProjectshavebeenpreparedandaucNonedbyIndustrialDevelopmentCorpora4onZambia(IDC,100%SOE)incooperaNonwithIFC
• RoundI:2solarPVprojectstendered(52MW/34MW)
• Tariffsachievedconsideredtobebenchmarkintheregion(6US$ct,Neon/FirstSolar&7,8US$ctperkWh,ENELGreenPower)
• Bidderswerenotinvolvedinprojectdevelopment
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SCALING SOLAR IN ZAMBIA
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TheWorldBank.(2017).ProjectappraisaldocumentonaproposedIDAguarantee(...)andonaproposedIFCfinancing(...)toBangweuluPowerCompanyltd.fortheWestLungaScalingSolarenergyproject.Retrievedfrom<hGp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/974771487473237766/pdf/PAD-01302017.pdf>
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CURRENT PROJECT STATUS
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✓✓✓⌛🤷#Projectsarecurrentlyapprox.10monthsdelayed
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CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
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Adequateriskalloca4on&sharing
ScalingSolar:riskmanagement&
creditenhancement
package
Poli4calriskinsurance
provided&par4alriskguarantees
Experienced&solid
privatesectorpar4cipants
ScalingSolar:comprehensive
technical,financial&legalcriteriaforbidderssetbyRFQ
process
Biddersmustdemonstratesubstan4alexperienceindeveloping,
construc4ng&opera4ngPVpowerplants
Poli4calsupport
ScalingSolar:presiden4aldirec4ve&
structureofIDC(SOE);high
poli4calurgency
Public&communitysupport
ScalingSolar:stakeholder
consulta4ons-noimmediateopposi4on
Transparentprocurement
ScalingSolar:highdegreeof
transparency,selec4onof
biddersbasedonanauc4on
scheme,allbidsannounced
Research:MainCSFsfortheplanning&implementa4onphaseofPPPs*
*Osei-Kyei,R.,andChan,A.P.C.(2015),"ReviewofstudiesonthecriNcalsuccessfactorsforpublic-privatepartnership(PPP)projectsfrom1990to2013",Interna'onalJournalofProjectManagement,Vol.33No.6,pp.1335–46
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
?
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FINDINGS ZAMBIA
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4.PublicandcommunitysupportNumberfourintherankingoftheCSFsidenNfiedbyOsei-KyeiandChan(2015)relatestopublicandcommunitysupportfortheimplementaNonofPPPprojectsaspublicopposiNoncandelayPPPprojects,forexamplewithregardtolandacquisiNon(ibid).TheScalingSolarprogrammeisaimedatpromoNngpublicandcommunitysupportfortheprojectsofroundonebyfacilitaNngmeeNngswithlocalcommuniNesimmediatelyaffectedbytheimplementaNonoftheproject,forexamplebyrelocaNonmeasures,andbroaderpublicconsultaNons.TheseconsultaNons,whichrevealedmainlyconcernswithregardtocommunitybenefitsoftheprojectbutnoimmediateopposiNon,resultedinastakeholderengagementplan(SEP)forthosegroupsthatarecloselyaffectedbytheprojectandthecommitmentofthedevelopertoestablishaCommunityDevelopmentPlantoaddressresidualsocialrisksbyprovidingcommunity-levelbenefits(Neoen,2016).5.TransparentprocurementAfifhmajorCSFforimplemenNngPPPprojectsisthetransparencyoftheprocurementprocess,whichprovidestraceabilityofoutcomesoftheselecNonprocessthatcanbeachievedthroughopennessandcommunicaNonamongstakeholdersandthepublic(Liet.al.,2005).AlackoftransparencycanresultinpublicopposiNontowardstheimplementaNonofaprojectwhichinturncancausedelays(Osei-KyeiandChan,2015).TheanalysisoftheprocurementprocessduringroundoneoftheScalingSolarProgrammeinZambia,whichwasatwostageprocess,revealsahighdegreeoftransparency.AllrelevantinformaNonincludingtheselecNoncriteriaandthenamesofthepre-qualifiedbidderswaspublishedduringstageonewhichcomprisedtheRFQ.ThesecondstageoftheprocessentailedanRFPprocessandtheselecNonofthewinningbidderswasbasedonanaucNonscheme.Accordingly,thetwoprojectsofroundonewereawardedtothelowestbiddersandtheirposiNoningamongallcompeNngbidsoftheprocesswaspublished.ThediscussionshowsthatthedesignandtheapproachoftheScalingSolarprogrammecouldlargelymiNgatethefivemostcentralrisksthatwereidenNfiedbystudieswithregardtotheimplementaNonofPPPprojectsandthusonlyprovidealimitedexplanatoryapproachforthecurrentdelayoftheimplementaNonofScalingSolarroundoneinZambiaisexperiencing.6.Publicstakeholderalignmentandins'tu'onalcapacityStakeholderinterviewswithregardtothecurrentstatusoftheimplementaNonphaseofScalingSolarroundoneinZambiareveal,thatthecurrentdelayismainlyaquesNonofgovernmentalstakeholderalignmentamongthosebodies,whichfacilitatetheimplementaNonoftheprogrammeinZambia.ThepersistenceofunresolvedissuesandpreviouscoordinaNonprocessesamongpublicstakeholders,e.g.withregardtotheprojectsitewhichwasallocatedbythegovernmentortheenergypolicyframework,impactthefinancialcloseoftheprojectwhichhasnotyetbeenachieved.TheseissuesaremainlyrootedinthecomplexityofsuchaPPPandthenumberofstakeholdersinvolved(stakeholderalignment).TheyarealsorelatedtolimitaNonsintermsofinsNtuNonalcapacityamongthepublicstakeholdersinimplemenNngthefirstlarge-scalesolarpvprojectsduetoalackofunderstandingofthespecificrequirementsthatsuchadevelopmentimposes,forexamplewithrespecttotheprojectsite,orspecificregulatoryissues.
Publicstakeholderalignmentandins4tu4onalcapacity
CurrentdelaymainlyaquesNonofgovernmentalstakeholderalignmentamongthosebodies,whichfacilitatetheimplementaNonoftheprogrammeinZambia:
• Persistenceofunresolvedissues&lackofpreviouscoordinaNonprocessesamongpublicstakeholders
• RootedinthecomplexityofsuchaPPP&thenumberofstakeholdersinvolved(stakeholderalignment)
• LimitaNonsintermsofinsNtuNonalcapacityamongthepublicstakeholdersinimplemenNngthefirstlarge-scalesolarpvprojectinZambia-lackofunderstandingofthespecificrequirementsthatsuchadevelopmentimposes,forexamplewithrespecttotheprojectsite,orspecificregulatoryissues(grid-code).
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PublicSector
Speedvs.Prepara4on:PublicstakeholderalignmentandinsNtuNonalcapacitybuildingatpre-implementaNonstage‘Neutral’coordina4on:interrelaNonshipsbetweenprocurer&SPVshareholders>potenNalconflictofinterest>independentunitcoordinaNngtheprocess(PPPUnit)
PrivateSector
Conserva4venessvs.Riskappe4te:ConsiderdataaccuracyasapotenNalrisk-factorandinclude‘error’marginsinthebiddingstrategy;calculateNmedelay
‘CleanEnergyforAll’
Bigvs.Small:ReconsideraNonofuNlityscaleenergyprojectsassoluNontoachieveSDGs-FocusonthestrategicimplementaNonofdecentralizedsmallandmediumscaleREprojectsandtheregulatoryframeworkthatenablessuccessfulprojectdevelopmentintheon-grid(e.g.net-metering)andoff-gridsector
LEARNING LESSONS
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LITERATURE
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Osei-Kyei,R.,andChan,A.P.C.(2015),"ReviewofstudiesonthecriNcalsuccessfactorsforpublic-privatepartnership(PPP)projectsfrom1990to2013",Interna'onalJournalofProjectManagement,Vol.33No.6,pp.1335–46.Rockart,J.F.(1982),"ThechangingroleoftheinformaNonsystemsexecuNve:AcriNcalsuccessfactorsperspecNve",SloanSchoolofManagement,pp.3–13
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5. CONCLUSION
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LEARNING LESSONS
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Government/PublicActors
• Speedvs.Prepara4on:PublicstakeholderalignmentandinsNtuNonalcapacitybuildingatpre-implementaNonstage‘Neutral’coordina4on:interrelaNonshipsbetweenprocurer&SPVshareholders>potenNalconflictofinterestmightaffectlevelsoftrustamongstakeholders>independentunitcoordinaNngtheprocess(PPPUnit)
PrivateActors/Developers
• Conserva4venessvs.Riskappe4te:ConsiderdataaccuracyasapotenNalrisk-factorandinclude‘error’marginsinthebiddingstrategy;calculateNmedelay
ImplementaNonoftheSDGs
• Bigvs.Small:ReconsideraNonofuNlityscaleenergyprojects;FocusonthestrategicimplementaNonofdecentralizedsmallandmediumscaleREprojectsandtheregulatoryframeworkthatenablessuccessfulprojectdevelopmentintheon-grid(e.g.net-metering)andoff-gridsector
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1. MAPPING THE ENERGY CHALLENGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Botswana
Ghana
Kenya
Malawi
Niger
SouthAfrica
Zambia
Zimbabwe
RuralelectrificaNonrate
UrbanelectrificaNonrate
NaNonalelectrificaNonrate%
hGp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org
Energyaccess:urbanvs.ruralareas
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17hGp://data.worldbank.org
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Niger
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Congo,Rep.
Ghana
Mozambique
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Namibia
Botswana
EastAsia&Pacific
SouthAfrica
EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
kWh
Electricpowerconsump4on(kWhpercapita)2014
1. MAPPING THE ENERGY CHALLENGES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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THE ELECTRICAL GRID
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ENERGY DEMAND VS. SUPPLY IN ZAMBIA
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3. CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
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Cri4calSuccessFactors(CSFs)forPublicPrivatePartnerships
CSFs=‘keyareasofac4vitynecessarytobefocusedtoensurecompe44veperformancetowardsanorganisa4on’sstrategicgoals'(Rockart,1982)
Empiricalresearchiden4fieddifferentCSFsfordifferentstagesofPPPprojects
Studyiden4fied5mainCSFsfortheplanning&implementa4onphaseofPPPs(Osei-Kyei&Chan,2015)