Cleveland’s Economic FallFrom Grace and the Road Back

Dr. Mark S. RosentraubMaxine Goodman Levin

College of Urban Affairs

Cleveland State University

A Slide, A ‘Quiet Crisis,’Or A Long Term Trend?

• An Image of Decline

• Riots

• Mistake By The Lake

• Burning of the Cuyahoga River

• Default

• The Least Silent Quiet Crisis

• Was This A Slide Or A Long Term Trend?

Greater Cleveland and The National Context

• Professional Jobs – Ranked 17th

• Workforce Education – 26th

• Manufacturing Exports – 34th

• Population Online – 37th

• Patents – 20th

• Academic R & D – 34th

• New Traded Companies – 37th

The Rise of the United States and NE Ohio

• Land and Water

• Cheap Labor – Immigration

• Education

• Inclusion

• Women

• Religious Minorities

• Racial Minorities

The Decline of NE Ohio’s Economy

• Technology and Ideas

• Exclusion

• Loss of Immigration

• The Costs of Exclusion

• The Need for Bad Ideas

• Encouraging Failure for Growth

Population Changes

Cleveland Cuyahoga County1920 796,841 943,9451930 900,429 1,201,4451940 878,336 1,217,250 1950 914,808 1,389,532 1960 876,050 1,647,8951970 750,903 1,720,8351980 573,822 1,498,4001990 505,616 1,412,1402000 478,403 1,393,978

Cleveland and Technology:New and Important Patents

• 1900 – Cleveland Ranks 7th

• 1880 – Cleveland Ranks 10th

• 1860 – Cleveland Ranks 9th

• Important Patents – 1870 to 1890• Cleveland Ranks 5th

• Patent Rate, 1880 to 1930 Among The Highest In The Nation

• Case Institute, Fenn College

Manufacturing Productivity

• 1900 110 % of US Average• 1925 115 % of US Average• 1940 125 % of US Average• 1950 115 % of US Average• 1960 112 % of US Average• 1970 108 % of US Average• 1980 105 % of US Average• 1990 95 % of US Average• 2000 93 % of US Average

Why Did This Change?

• Higher Priced Labor

• Changing Transportation Technologies

• Peculiar to Cleveland?

• No – History of All Manufacturing

• Center Periphery Models

Greater Cleveland Today

• 5th Oldest Median Age

• Net Out Migration

• Natural Increase Offsets Move Outs• Per Capita Income Below: Cincinnati,

St. Louis, Dallas/Fort Worth, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Columbus

The Road Back: Fast Growth Limitations

• Environmental Constraints – Water

• Environmental Constraints – Traffic

• Environmental Constraints – Land

• Track Housing

• Sprawl

• Strip Malls

• Energy Costs

The Road Back:Positioning NE Ohio

• Asset: Land

• Asset: Water

• Asset: Low Levels of Congestion

• Asset: Neighborhoods and Communities

• Asset: Inexpensive Housing• Asset: We Can Avoid Cookie-Cutter Subdivisions

The Road Back:Amenity Assets

• Culture

• Sports

• Entertainment

• Ethnic Diversity

• Racial Diversity

• Restaurants

The Road Back:Your Challenge

• Workers are Mobile

• Firms Locate Where Workers Want to Live

• Education Needed for Jobs

• Education Needed for Families

• K-12

• University

Is It Possible?

• All Growth Results From Investments and Strategic Risks

• Housing

• Downtown Cleveland

• Town Squares

• Great Schools

• Understand the Changing Demography

Women and Employment

• Almost Half of the Work Force• More than One-Third of High Technology

Jobs• Engineering• Mathematics• Design Cities for Women• Design School Systems for Working

Women