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Justin Ford-RobertsonNew Zealand

Improving the accuracy of LULUCF inventories

Click to edit Master title styleOverview• Introduction

• Inventory purpose

• Official guidance

• Approaches

• Conclusions

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National data/models e.g. forest inventory, agriculture surveys

National defaults e.g. research, industry data

(Accounting)

International defaults e.g. literature,

IPCC GuidelinesReporting

Click to edit Master title styleReporting and Accounting

• Reporting – UNFCCC and KP (CP1)– Inclusive – emissions/removals– All Parties

• Accounting – KP CP1 – ’credits and liabilities’– Future period – Who? What?

• Recognise links but avoid confusion!

Click to edit Master title styleUNFCCC Definitions

• Sink - any process, activity or mechanism which removes a GHG, an aerosol or a precursor of a GHG from the atmosphere.

• Source - any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas (GHG) or a precursor of a GHG into the atmosphere.

• Reservoir - A component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored

Click to edit Master title styleGHG inventory purpose

“All practice so far for LULUCF, including 96 GL, KP, MA, 2003 GPG, and the 2006 AFOLU outline, focus on carbon stock changes (for carbon) as the measure of emissions and removals”

"Clearly the purpose of emission inventories is to be able to report emissions (or removals) of gases from the atmosphere.

Changes in stocks may be a way to achieve that goal, particularly in the absence of more detailed data."

APPROACH

METHOD

Click to edit Master title styleRevised IPCC 1996 Guidelines

• Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks may be either a source or a sink for carbon dioxide

• The simplest way to determine which, is by comparing annual biomass growth versus annual harvest, including the decay of forest products and slash left during harvest

• Harvested wood releases its carbon at rates dependent upon its method of processing and its end-use

• Recommended default assumption is that all carbon removed in wood and other biomass from forests is oxidised in the year of removal

• Not strictly accurate, but a legitimate, conservative assumption for initial calculations

Click to edit Master title styleForestry Stocks and Flows

Forest Mill Products

Atmosphere

annual biomass growth versus annual harvest, including the decay of forest products and slash left during harvest

Click to edit Master title styleStock change

Forest Mill Products

Atmosphere

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Stock changes or Emissions

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Ca

rbo

n s

tock

s

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Deforestation

non-Kyoto countries

Pre 1990

CDM

Forest management

A&Re-forestation

Forests Products

Stock changeIn all forestsResulting from activities since 1990

SinksIn all forestsResulting from activities since 1990

Stock changeIn all productsIn products manufactured since 1990In products resulting from activities since 1990

Sources from All harvested wood burning and decayHarvested wood since 1990Harvested wood resulting from activities since 1990

Click to edit Master title styleNGGIP advice

• “Parties are encouraged to report all emissions and removals of carbon to the atmosphere. Where atmospheric exchanges with biomass do not lead to a net flux (i.e. a net emission or net removal) then there is no need to report.”

• “Clearly there is a difference between stock changes and emissions and/or removals. Parties should report either a net emission or a net removal in the emission or removal column in the reporting tables respectively.”

Click to edit Master title styleMarrakesh Accords

• accounting for emissions and removals resulting from specific activities since 1990

• reversal of a LULUCF removal be accounted for at an appropriate point in time

• the mere presence of stocks be excluded from accounting

• accounting applies to all forest pools unless evidence demonstrates the pool is not a source

Click to edit Master title styleInventory impact

Harvested Emissions (during the year) Stocks (end of year)

Year tC 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5

1 100 50 5 5 5 5 50 45 40 35 30

2 100 50 5 5 5 50 45 40 35

3 100 50 5 5 50 45 40

4 100 50 5 50 45

etc 100 50 50

Emit/year 50 55 60 65 70 Total stock 50 95 135 170 200

Stock change 50 45 40 35 30

NB. Inherited emissions can be calculated from harvesting data prior to inventory year

annual biomass growth versus annual harvest, including the decay of forest products and slash left during harvest

Click to edit Master title styleApproach

Estimates of: When and where When

Changes in stocks Stock change Production

Emissions Atmospheric flow Simple decay

Click to edit Master title styleHonoa te haere whakamua

Let’s greet the future together