client-level analysis of emergency shelters: 1996-2006 columbus and franklin county, ohio
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Client-level Analysis of Emergency Shelters: 1996-2006 Columbus and Franklin County, Ohio. RLUS Steering Committee Presentation December 5, 2006. Prepared for the Rebuilding Lives Updated Strategy Steering Committee Prepared by - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Client-level Analysis of Emergency Shelters: 1996-
2006 Columbus and Franklin County, Ohio
RLUS Steering Committee PresentationDecember 5, 2006
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Prepared for the Rebuilding Lives Updated Strategy
Steering Committee
Prepared byStephen Metraux, Ph.D. – University of the Sciences in
PhiladelphiaDennis P. Culhane, Ph.D. – University of Pennsylvania
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Goals
Understand shelter utilization (families and singles) dynamics from 1996 to 2005, including: Trends over time in shelter use (average daily census,
prevalence, length of shelter stays) Relationships between shelter exits & housing
placements Population Demographics “Churning” analyses - family shelters today (& single
adults in February)
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Data Sources
Two administrative data sets: “legacy” data – 1990-2001 HMIS data – 2003-present
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Average Daily Census – Single Adults
Males substantial seasonal fluctuation overall increasing trend in Legacy period (1996-2001) marked decrease 1999-2001 co-occurring with
increases in supportive housing placements overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006)
Females less seasonal fluctuation smaller bed capacity steady increase in Average Daily Census in both Legacy
& HMIS periods
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ADC for Single Adult HouseholdsFigure 3a - Average Daily Census for Single Adult Households,
Columbus 1996-2006
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Single Adults (males)Single Adults (females)
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Average Daily Census - Families
substantial seasonal fluctuation overall declining trend in Legacy period (1996-
2001) diversion policies in family shelters adopted in
1999 co-occur with decreased Average Daily Census
overall “flat” trend for HMIS period (2003-2006) size of families households appear to increase
over time during HMIS period
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Average Daily Census for Family Households
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“Front Door” & “Back Door” Dynamics
“Front Door” (i.e., changes in entries to shelter)
“Back Door” (i.e., changes in exits from shelter)
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Figure 10 - Survival Curve of Shelter Episodes - Family HouseholdsColumbus, 1998-2000 & 2003-2005
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
Weeks
% E
piso
des
Rem
aini
ng
Families -1998-2000Families 2003-2005
Test Chi-Square DF p-value Log-Rank 6.5478 1 0.0105 Wilcoxon 23.7923 1 <.0001
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Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return Exits from shelter to housing following
successful program completion: Families – 57% Single Adults – Males 15%; Females 31%
Repeat shelter stay subsequent to shelter exit: Families – 10% Single Adults – Males 37%; Females 26%
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Shelter Exits, Housing, & Shelter Return – Regression Findings The longer the shelter episode, the higher the
odds for a household (single adult or family) to exit to a housing placement;
Income increases the odds of receiving a housing placement upon exit, wages increased odds 5-fold.
Housing placement was strongest factor in reducing the hazards of repeat shelter stay
Among families, repeat shelter stays are a relatively rare event.
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Single Adult Demographics – Annual Prevalence and % Male
Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female N (% total population)
1997 4159 (87.2%) 610
1998 4297 (86.4%) 678
1999 4063 (85.3%) 702
2000 3795 (83.2%) 767
2003 3754 (77.0%) 1122
2004 4025 (76.8%) 1218
2005 3885 (76.2%) 1211
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Single Adult Demographics – Median Age
Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female
Median Age in years Median Age in years1997 38.0 36.0
1998 38.4 36.9
1999 39.3 37.3
2000 40.2 36.6
2003 41.3 38.0
2004 41.8 38.9
2005 42.6 39.2
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Single Adult Demographics – Race & Ethnicity
Single Adults - Male Single Adults - Female % African/American % African/American
1997 59.0% 57.3%
1998 60.6% 57.3%
1999 60.5% 58.4%
2000 58.5% 59.4%
2003 60.0% 56.7%
2004 59.3% 57.1%
2005 60.3% 56.8%
% Hispanic % Hispanic2003 3.9% 2.1%
2004 4.1% 1.4%
2005 3.8% 1.7%
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Family Demographics – Annual Prevalence & Percent Male
Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family MembersTotal (% male) Total (% male) Total (% male)
1997 1,563 (13.4%)
1998 1,091 (14.4%)
1999 533 (18.0%)
2000 621 (17.1%)
2003 747 (12.5%) 935 (23.2%) 1,577 (49.8%)
2004 717 (12.8%) 922 (25.2%) 1,558 (51.4%)
2005 705 (14.5%) 914 (25.1%) 1,582 (50.3%)
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Family Demographics – Median Age
Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family MembersMedian Age in years Median Age in years Median Age in years
1997 31.6
1998 31.7
1999 30.8
2000 31.3
2003 30.3 30.4 6.6
2004 30.7 31.0 6.5
2005 29.9 30.3 6.4
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Demographics of Sheltered Population – Family Households #3
Head of Household Adult Family Members Child Family Members% African/American % African/American % African/American
1997 56.9%
1998 65.9%
1999 65.7%
2000 64.4%
2003 67.9% 66.6% 75.0%
2004 69.2% 67.1% 73.1%
2005 70.9% 69.2% 75.5%
% Hispanic % Hispanic % Hispanic2003 1.9% 2.3% 2.4%
2004 2.8% 2.9% 4.6%
2005 2.7% 2.7% 3.5%
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Other Characteristics of Sheltered Family Households
2003 2004 2005
Employed Heads of Household (%) 14.0% 15.6% 15.2%
Family Size (average) 3.4 3.4 3.5
Number of Children in Family (average) 2.1 2.1 2.2
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Movement Across Shelters Within Episodes - FamiliesOut of 2,175 different shelter episodes, 589
(27.1%) episodes involved two shelters; and 13 (0.6%) involved 3 shelters.
97.1% of the shelter episodes – all but 63 of all the episodes – originated at the YIHN program; all but four multiple shelter episodes originated at YIHN.
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Next Steps
Cluster analysis Income patterns Integrate inventory findings with utilization
findings Intra-episode movement analysis for single
adults
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Questions or Comments?
Contact: Stephen Metraux, Ph.D.
Department of Health Policy and Public HealthUniversity of the Sciences in Philadelphia
600 South 43rd StreetPhiladelphia PA 19104-4495
Tel: (215) 596-7612Fax: (215) 596-7614
Email: [email protected]