cliff mass: big data and weather prediction - seattle interactive 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Big Data and Weather Forecasting
Weather prediction has been a big data problem for a long time
Petabytes per day
Big data and weather: the observations
Weather Satellites: Meteorological Data Everywhere
NOAA PolarOrbiter WeatherSatellite
NOAA Polar Orbiter
Cosmic GPS satellites provide more soundings
Cloud Track Winds
Aircraft
Weather Radar
Surface Observations
Northwest Surface Observations
Some of the smartphones/pads with pressure sensors
114K Pressures in One Hour Over US From Three Apps
Big Problem
Quality Control of Big Weather Data
The other meteorological big data: forecast models
The First Numerical Weather Prediction
Numerical Weather Prediction
Observation Collection Needed to Create the Initialization
These equations together are a time machine!
Numerical Weather Prediction
National WeatherService WeatherPrediction Computer
4-km UWMM5 System
1.33 km resolution available on the UW web site
Before the models are run there is another step: data assimilation
Surface analysis of sea level pressure, surface wind, low-atmosphere temperature
But there is another issue for big data users…meteorological and otherwise.
Uncertainty
Big Data and Uncertainty
The Technology of Uncertainty
Ensemble Prediction
Ensemble Prediction• Can use ensembles to give the probabilities that some weather feature will occur. Not just precipitation.
• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any individual member.
•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill of the ensemble mean is generally higher.
Statistical post-processing
The UW has done this: PROBCAST
Decision Making and Uncertainty
Take Home Message
Big Data and Visualization
The role of visualization
And there are some recent non-Xbox examples
Imagine if we developed the infrastructure for weather animations, SHOWING people what the weather would LOOK like and SOUND like.
Connect Weather Simulation and Videogame Technologies
ForecastAnimationFor theNext Hr
Take Home Message
Big weather data can also help in the short-term forecasting
During the past decade the volume of information on what is occurring now in local areas has increased dramatically
And we have the perfect delivery tool: Smartphones
Take Home Message
The End