CLIMAS CLIMAS CLIMAS CLIMAS CLIMAS UpUpUpUpUpdatedatedatedatedateNews from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest ProjectNews from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest ProjectNews from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest ProjectNews from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest ProjectNews from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest Project

Volume !�Number #$!�January '(('

Integrating science� policy� and community

CLIMAS researchers Susan Moodie andDiana Hadley have been investigating howclimate variability affects the Arizonaranching industry. Moodie and Hadleyconducted interviews with and adminis-tered questionnaires to a total of fifty-sevenindividual ranchers, nine agency andreservation personnel and one cattlegrowers’ association member: the inter-viewees represented four of Arizona’s sevenMajor Ranching Areas (MRAs). The fourareas selected are those where the cattleindustry continues to have the most eco-nomic, social and ecological importance.

Ranching data from six representativecounties within the selected MRAs wasthen examined. The zones and countiesincluded the Basin and Range Zone ofSoutheastern Arizona, using data forCochise and Santa Cruz Counties; theMogollon Rim of Arizona’s Central Moun-tains, with data from Yavapai County; theColorado Plateau of northern Arizona,using Coconino County data; and theSonoran Desert of south-central Arizona,with data from Pima and Pinal Counties.While each of these areas is primarily aridand characterized by summer and winterrainy seasons, they differ in terms of soiltypes, topography, microclimates andvegetation patterns.

Not surprisingly, ranchers are mostconcerned with drought. Most havekept precipitation records for theirranches for years, although fewrecord temperatures. Many havenoticed changes in weather andclimate patterns over the past severaldecades. Several observed that wetwinters are often followed by drysummers, and that the opposite istrue as well. They report that thesummer rainy season has been

CLIMAS Studies Arizona’s RangeCattle Industry and Climate Variability

CLIMAS MissionCLIMAS MissionCLIMAS MissionCLIMAS MissionCLIMAS MissionCLIMAS was established toassess the impacts of climatevariability and longer$termclimate change on humanand natural systems in theSouthwest* Our mission is toimprove the ability of the re$gion to respond sufficientlyand appropriately to climaticevents and climate changes*

AnnouncementsAnnouncementsAnnouncementsAnnouncementsAnnouncements• CLIMAS’s own Fire in theWest 2002 Workshop will beheld March 5-6, 2002 at theMarriott University Park Ho-tel in Tucson, Arizona. Regis-tration for invited partici-pants is available online athttp://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/fire/workshops/2002/More info: (520) 622-9016 orgmgarfin@email.arizona.edu• The Pacific Climate Work-shop (PACLIM) will be heldMarch 3-6 in Pacific Grove,CA. Topics include Direct andIndirect Solar Influences ofClimate, and Climate andFisheries. Info at http://meteora.ucsd.edu/paclim/or contact Janice Tomson at(562) 938-4448, or e-mailjtomson@lbcc.cc.ca.us.• The Association of Ameri-can Geographers will hold its98th Annual Meeting in LosAngles, March 19-23. Moreinfo at (202) 234-1450, or http://www.aag.org.• The Society for AppliedAnthropology’s annual meet-ing will be March 6-10 in At-lanta, Georgia. More informa-tion at http://www.sfaa.net/am.html.

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shorter since the 1960s, beginning about amonth later in the summer but ending atthe usual time, which results in fewerperennial grasses. Since the 1940s, shortersummer showers (often lasting only two orthree minutes) and softer rainfall havecreated little or no runoff, so stream flowsare lower and livestock tanks and pondsdo not fill during the summer. Summerrains are more limited to higher elevations,and the drier summers tend to bringhigher temperatures. Changes in winterweather have been noted as well, withshorter showers, higher winter tempera-tures than prior to the 1980s, and lesssnowfall. Ranchers at lower elevationshave noticed stronger winds and longerlasting windstorms, especially since 1995;the winds of 1998 were said to be the worstin more than 30 years.

Another area that Moodie and Hadleyexamined is where drought ranks indetermining ranchers’ ability to stay in theranching business, and the number ofcattle they are able to maintain. Theyfound that urban development, problemsmaintaining ranches along the U.S.-Mexicoborder (in areas where this is relevant), and

Submissions and Publication InformationSubmissions and Publication InformationSubmissions and Publication InformationSubmissions and Publication InformationSubmissions and Publication Information

CLIMAS Update is published quarterly and welcomes the submission ofitems of interest. The editorial staff reserves the right to select and edit copysubmitted for publication. All material in the newsletter may be repro-duced, provided CLIMAS is acknowledged as the source. The newsletter isprovided through the support of the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA).

Deadline for next issue: April /� '(('Send to: Gregg Garfin at GMGarfin@email*arizona*eduNewsletters are archived at: http://www*ispe*arizona*edu/climas/archive*html

Please direct change$of$address requests to:CLIMAS� Institute for the Study of Planet Earth�The University of Arizona� PO Box '8(8/�� Tucson� AZ :/;'8or visit http://www*ispe*arizona*edu/climas/update/subscribe*html

Climate Prediction & VariationAndrew Comrie and David Brownpresented a paper entitled “2001: Sub-regional variability of climate inArizona and New Mexico” at the 26thAnnual Climate Diagnostics andPrediction Workshop held at theScripps Institute for Oceanography inLa Jolla, California, on October 22-26,2001. CLIMAS scientists Gregg Garfinand Tom Pagano also presentedpapers at workshop. Their work, withRobert Maddox of the UA Departmentof Atmospheric Sciences, representsCLIMAS efforts to improve under-standing and prediction of the NorthAmerican monsoon.

University of Arizona NASA SpaceGrant intern Roxanne Linsley pre-sented a poster at the First AmericanMeteorological Society Student Confer-ence and Career Fair, in Orlando,Florida this January. Roxanne has beenworking with CLIMAS scientist GreggGarfin on examining the spatialvariability of 2001 summer monsoonprecipitation in the Southwest.

CLIMAS researchers Roger Bales,Holly Hartmann, Malcolm Hughes,and Soroosh Sorooshian gave presen-tations of CLIMAS research at the 2001American Geophysical Union FallMeeting.

Climate & Society Colin West andMarcela Vásquez León presented a

What We’ve Been Up To…

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paper based on CLIMAS researchentitled “Testing Farmers’ Perceptionsof Climate Variability: A Case Studyfrom the Sulphur Springs Valley,Arizona” at the American Anthropo-logical Association’s annual meeting.The meetings were held in Washing-ton DC from Nov 28 to Dec 2. Thepaper was part of an invited panel on“Weather, Climate, Culture: BuildingAnthropological Bridges from Past toFuture.”

Barbara Morehouse presented a paperon “Climate, Forest Fires and Recre-ation: Insights from the U.S. South-west” at the International Climate,Tourism and Recreation Workshopsponsored by the InternationalBiometeorology Society and held inPorto Carras, Chalkidiki, Greece,October 5-10, 2001.

Morehouse also gave a presentationon “The North American Monsoonand Society” for a University ofArizona graduate seminar entitledNorth American Monsoon Collo-quium in Tucson, Arizona on Novem-ber 5, 2001.

In November, CLIMAS core officescientist Gregg Garfin presented apaper entitled “Facilitating use ofclimate information for wildfiredecision-making in the U.S. South-west,” at the Fourth Symposium onFire and Forest Meteorology in Reno,

Nevada. The paper, co-authored byBarbara Morehouse, was well receivedand resulted in CLIMAS scientistsbeing invited to present our fire-climate work to chief fire managers atthe National Interagency Fire Center inlate January, 2002.

Climate & Water Management InNovember, CLIMAS project managerBarbara Morehouse gave a presenta-tion entitled “Improving Prediction inArizona Water Management: A BriefOverview” to the annual WaterResources Conference, “Water Plan-ning for the Future,” hosted by the UAWater Resources Research Center, inPhoenix, Arizona. Morehouse alsopresented “Is there a Place for ClimateInformation in Water Policy? Insightsfrom Arizona” at the annual AmericanWater Resources Association confer-ence in Albuquerque, New Mexico, inNovember.

In December, Morehouse helpedstrengthen the bridge betweenCLIMAS and Cooperative Extensionwith her presentation “Institute for theStudy of Planet Earth: Partnering forWater Management” at the WatershedArizona Cooperative Extensionconference, “Building Partnershipsand Educational Programs for Water/Watershed Education,” in Tucson,Arizona.

Welcome to CLIMAS graduateresearch associates, Tamara Wilsonand Rebecca Carter. Wilson is work-ing on establishing procedures forCLIMAS product rollout and evalua-tion (see p. 3). Carter, who was leadauthor on the first CLIMAS report,Assessing the Sensitivity of theSouthwest’s Urban Water Sector toClimate Variability (CL1-00), willemploy her considerable journalisticskills to co-edit CLIMAS Update, andproduce and improve content on theCLIMAS web site.

Finally…Congratulations to RogerBales, who was named a Fellow of theAmerican Meteorological Society.

CLIMAS Update� page #

CLIMAS Product Rollout and EvaluationZenith’s “The Quality Goes in Beforethe Name Goes On” is one of the mostrecognized corporate mottos inAmerica. Everyone can recognize apoor quality product, and no onewould want to buy or use a productfor which adequate quality control islacking. Similarly, it is frustratingwhen one encounters a hard-to-useproduct, especially a hard-to-usecomputer product.

These considerations form the essenceof CLIMAS research into the processof delivering climate informationproducts to regional decision makersand users of climate information. Asthe fruits of the first three years ofCLIMAS research have come to ripen,researchers in the CLIMAS core officeare working to deliver these researchproducts to stakeholders on anexperimental basis, which will provideoperational versions of these andsimilar products. We expect that ourefforts will provide valuable guidanceto a proposed National ClimateService.

CLIMAS graduate research associateTamara Wilson, along with CLIMASresearchers Barbara Morehouse, GreggGarfin, and Institute for the Study ofPlanet Earth web designer ShoshanaMayden, have been putting togetheran action plan for effective computer-human interface design, as well as aprocess for stakeholder input to

product design and evaluation ofCLIMAS product usability andusefulness. Wilson has combedthrough literature on product designand the transfer of scientific knowl-edge. Her work, to be published laterin 2002, draws upon a rich array ofsources that include meteorologicaland climatological forecasting, mar-keting research, usability engineering,knowledge transfer in the disciplinesof education and medicine, andethnographic assessment.

The plan of action put together byCLIMAS core office researchersfeatures an iterative approach ofdesign and evaluation, in order toensure that design choices are in linewith user needs and desires. Suchinteractive development serves tosupport usability goals and effectiveuse of information. The proposedplan of action will include the follow-ing: development of user profiles inorder to determine how our stake-holders use computer-based climateinformation in decision-making;development and evaluation ofprototypes, in order to determinewhether design choices are in linewith user preferences; and assess-ment of usability using a variety ofmethods such as in-house testing,evaluation in a workshop setting andbroader assessment using surveys.Product modifications may also benecessary once a product is fully

CLIMAS presented as a model for stakeholderinvolvement to Mexican Water Agency

In November 2001, Diana Liverman was part of a University of Arizona team(representing CLIMAS, STC-SAHRA and the Udall Center) invited by theMexican Comision Nacional De Agua (National Water Commission) to discussstakeholder involvement and outreach at a workshop in Guadalajara, Mexico.CLIMAS was discussed as one model for how environmental information canassist stakeholders, how user input can change the scientific research agenda,and how social science research can play a role in connecting scientists andengineers with user communities and assessing water resource vulnerabilities toclimate variability and change.

functional, as new information isgathered and new climate-relateddata are generated. This last pointemphasizes the unique nature of theCLIMAS product rollout and evalua-tion process—our partnership withstakeholders. Ongoing dialogue withstakeholders serves to improveexisting products, as well as togenerate ideas for new research andnew climate information products.

Stakeholders can expect to be con-tacted during the upcoming year toassist us with the evaluation of thefirst of our products, the onlineclimate forecast and evaluation tool(developed by CLIMAS researchersHolly Hartmann, Tom Pagano andSoroosh Sorooshian—see CLIMASUpdate Vol. 3, No. 1-2), and fine-scaletemperature and precipitation data forArizona and New Mexico (developedby CLIMAS researchers Dave Brownand Andrew Comrie—see CLIMASUpdate Vol. 2, No. 2).

Recently PublishedRecently PublishedRecently PublishedRecently PublishedRecently Published

The following CLIMAS-related reportshave recently been published in peer-reviewed journals:

Finan, T., Nelson, D., 2001: Making rain,making roads, making do: public andprivate adaptations to drought in Ceara,Northeast Brazil. Climate Research 19(2):97-108.

Pagano, T., Hartmann, H., Sorooshian, S.,2001: Using climate forecasts for watermanagement: Arizona and the 1997-98 ElNiño. Journal of American Water ResourcesAssociation 37(5):1139-1153.

CLIMAS Fall 2001 Retreat Storms Bisbee

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On November 11-12, 2001 CLIMASprincipal investigators and post-doctoral researchers, armed withlaptop computers, overhead projec-tors, a mini-library and a truck load ofenthusiasm, retreated to Bisbee,Arizona for an intensive multi-authorpaper writing session and critique.

The focus of the retreat was to identifythe main points and results of the firstthree years of CLIMAS research and todraft papers that synthesize the mainthrusts of CLIMAS research.

The retreat provided CLIMAS investi-gators with an unparalleled opportu-nity to reflect on the CLIMAS experi-ence of integrating physical and socialscience in the service of regionalstakeholders and to exchange ideasand generate priorities for futureresearch.

Paper topics, presentations anddiscussion included the following:usable science; the co-production ofscience and policy (i.e., the use or lack

of use of scientific information inpublic policy and how science andpolicy influence each other); socialscience methods for regional inte-grated science assessments; theCLIMAS process of integrated re-gional assessment; and climate andhydrological forecast evaluation anduse by stakeholders. These papershighlight the differences between the“end-to-end model” for integratedassessment and delivery of climateproducts and the more iterative andstakeholder interaction-intensivemodel developed by CLIMAS duringthe past three years.

CLIMAS investigators found theretreat and group-writing process tobe an invaluable aid for exchangingideas and advancing the methodologyof place-based user-driven science.The five research papers begun at theretreat are now close to completion.CLIMAS investigators hope that thesepapers will lay a solid theoretical andexperiential foundation for a proposedNational Climate Services.

CLIMAS researchers attend internationalmeeting on Human Dimensions of GlobalEnvironmental Change in BrazilIn October 2001 several CLIMAS researchers were invited to present theirwork at the fourth international Open Meeting on the Human Dimensions ofGlobal Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (for more information and copies ofsome conference papers see http://sedac.ciesin.org/openmeeting). Thismeeting brought together social science researchers from dozens of countriesto exchange ideas and present papers on a variety of issues including theclimate assessment topics of climate impacts and vulnerability, forecast value,and integrated assessment. Tim Finan and Maria Carmen Lemos gave papersabout their work on ENSO forecasts in Northeast Brazil; Marcela VásquezLeón presented a poster on climate and land use in Northern Mexico; andHallie Eakin gave a paper about her dissertation work on vulnerability inCentral Mexico. Diana Liverman, a member of the conference organizingcommittee, was a member of the first plenary panel, focusing her remarks onthe challenges of supporting younger scholars in the human dimensionsfield, and also hosted an information panel on the Inter American Institutefor Global Change Research (www.iai.int). The meeting provided an excellentopportunity for CLIMAS to establish and consolidate connections with awide range of researchers from other parts of the world, especially severalemerging collaborations with researchers in Latin America.

During the past decade, scientists research-ing north Pacific Ocean fish populationsdiscovered links between changes in fishpopulations and oceanic and atmosphericcirculation. They found a long-term patternof atmospheric and oceanic circulation,which changes approximately every 20-30years, and which is now known as thePacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

The PDO, like its cousin the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO, whichoperates on a 2-7 year time scale), hasimpacts on the climate of western NorthAmerica. Depending the state of the PDO,the Southwest is more likely to experienceLa Niña-related droughts (1940-1976) or ElNiño-related wet periods (1977-1998). Thereliability of ENSO-related climate forecastsalso depends on the state of the PDO.

CLIMAS investigator Malcolm Hughesand Nate Mantua of the University ofWashington (UW) brought togetheroceanographers, climatologists andresearchers in November 2001 at UW, inorder to gain a better understanding of thePDO. These scientists are concerned thatthe short instrumental record of the PDOcannot explain whether the PDO is arecent phenomenon, perhaps brought onby 20th century warming, or whether ithas occurred for centuries.

By using records of dry and wet conditionsrecorded in natural records with annualbands, such as tree rings and corals,Hughes and other scientists are gettingclues to how the PDO works, and how ithas varied prior to the 20th century. At themeeting, scientists agreed to combineefforts to construct the best possiblehistory of the PDO, covering the lastseveral centuries. After pooling data fromnatural records, participants will pursuedifferent approaches to characterizingthese patterns over the last few centuries.The idea is to engender friendly rivalryand stimulate creativity in arriving at thebest approach to understanding thepredictability of climate in Western NorthAmerica.

The workshop was funded by the NOAAOffice of Global Programs, and most of theparticipants were from one of the fourRegional Integrated Sciences and Assess-ments in the West – CLIMAS, the Califor-nia Applications Project, the Western WaterAssessment, and the Pacific NorthwestClimate Impacts Group.

PDO WorkshopPDO WorkshopPDO WorkshopPDO WorkshopPDO Workshop

Range Cattle and Climate Variability (continued)

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federal regulations and policy aremore important than climate variabil-ity in determining the number ofranches sold.

Herd reductions were most affected byfederal regulation and policy, followedby climate variability. The number ofcattle in each area usually reflectsclimate variability, declining afterdroughts and increasing during wetyears. Arizona has undergone severalperiods of long-term, widespreaddrought, with significant negativeimpacts on cattle growers and rangeresources during the past 120 years.Smaller ranches were found to beparticularly vulnerable, becausedrought-induced reductions in herdsize are more likely to lead to foreclo-sure on ranches that were alreadyeconomically marginal.

Moodie and Hadley also askedranchers about their sources ofweather and climate information, andhow they use this information tomonitor range conditions and makemanagement decisions. All of theranchers interviewed reported refer-ring to at least one journal on a regularbasis for information on weather andclimate, as well as using local TVstations, the TV weather channel andlocal radio stations.

However, ranchers were not fullysatisfied by the current format ordelivery of weather/climate reporting,nor by the reliability of the informa-tion. Ranchers recognize several typesof drought, each of which may affecttheir operations differently dependingon current range management prac-tices and the number of cattle stockedat the time. Some droughts result inadequate filling of cattle wateringsources, such as tanks and ponds, butlittle forage; other droughts provideample forage, but water resourcesremain depleted. Ranchers said thatweather reports do not adequatelyaddress which type of drought isoccurring, and that the variety ofmicroclimates on their ranches require

more finely detailed reports than thosecurrently available.

If improved weather/climate informa-tion were to be made available, mostof the ranchers surveyed would preferto receive it via computer-basedinternet pages and emails, followedclosely by written reports such asmailings and journals. Telephonerecordings, television, radio andverbal delivery by extension agentswere also mentioned.

Precipitation forecasts ranked as thetype of information that rancherswould be most interested in receiving,followed by information on dry andwet periods and flash floods. Fewerwere interested in temperature data,although some ranchers in opengrasslands wanted information onrelative humidity, wind speed andwind direction. Ranchers in thesouthern part of the state requestedmore information on the weather inMexico, since summer monsoonscarrying moisture from the Gulf ofMexico are essential for summer grassgrowth, and hence the successfulgrowth and weaning of calves in thesezones. Some medium and largeranchers were also interested inimproved national weather andclimate forecasts and conditions, dueto their effect on marketing conditionsand grain prices.

The majority of ranchers in all climatezones would prefer weekly andmonthly reports on climate. Weeklyforecasts would be useful for organiz-ing tasks, such as riding and branding,which ranchers avoid doing in wetconditions. Monthly forecasts areuseful for short-term managementdecisions and possible marketingconditions, which affect their cullingdecisions. Ranchers felt that theclimate was too variable for them torely on forecasts given three months inadvance.

Moodie and Hadley’s research hasprovided important information to

other CLIMAS research, and hasparticularly informed the work onclimate forecast evaluation beingundertaken by CLIMAS researchersHolly Hartmann, Tom Pagano andSoroosh Sorooshian. This report is acontinuation of an earlier ranchingstudy (available at http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/reportseries/index.html, no. CL3-99)that created a profile of ranchers’responses to climate variability inCochise County, Arizona.

C

o

lo

Colorado PlateauColorado Plateau

Mogollon RimMogollon Rim

Basin & RangeBasin & Range

Sonoran DesertSonoran Desert

Figure 1. Four major ranching/climate zonesincluded in the study.

NOAA Science PanelDeliberates in Tucson

The members of the NOAA ScienceAdvisory Panel met for several days inTucson during November, includingtwo days at the Institute for the Studyof Planet Earth. While the primarylocal focus of the meeting was on theNSF-funded SAHRA (Sustainability ofSemi-Arid Hydrology and RiparianAreas) project, CLIMAS was alsoshowcased at the meeting. Panelmembers expressed particular interestin the forecast evaluation productsdeveloped by Holly Hartmann andTom Pagano, as well as in the fireresearch being carried out on conjunc-tion with CLIMAS and EPA fundedactivities.

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Both NOAA’s Climate PredictionCenter (CPC) and the InternationalResearch Institute for Climate Predic-tion (IRI) suggest increased probabili-ties of above average temperaturesacross our region for the next severalmonths. The greatest confidence inthese predictions is centered onsouthern and western Arizona andsouthwestern New Mexico. In particu-lar, the latest CPC outlook for theperiod March-May suggests a 53%chance of above average temperatures(based on the 1971-2000 average) forwestern Arizona. Year-to-year variabil-ity in temperature in the Southwest issmall in relation to decade-long trendstoward increasing temperatures; thus,predictions for above-average winter-spring temperatures are a good bet.

Forecasts for precipitation are muchless certain. The CPC suggests aslightly increased chance (38%) ofbelow normal precipitation for theperiod February-April. However, both

the CPC and IRI have reserved judg-ment about precipitation for themajority of forecasts made for thisperiod. This is because the tropicalPacific Ocean, which has a stronginfluence on the winter climate of theSouthwest, is in a transition between LaNiña and El Niño conditions; CLIMASresearch shows that forecasts duringsuch transitions have been problematicfor forecasters. As a result, the latestCPC climate outlook advisory suggeststhat precipitation during the coolseason will be marked by significantmonth-to-month variability.

CPC drought forecasts indicate that thedrought that has plagued southeasternNew Mexico for more than one year islikely to persist. The U.S. DroughtMonitor, released on January 3, 2002,shows that all of New Mexico currentlyexhibits dry conditions ranging fromabnormally dry in western NewMexico to extreme drought in thestate’s southeastern corner.

Dr. David Goodrich, NOAAOffice of Atmospheric Re-search, Visits CLIMAS

CLIMAS was pleased to host a visit byDr. David Goodrich, Director of theNOAA Office of Atmospheric Research,on December 10 and 11, 2001. Dr.Goodrich is spearheading a NOAAeffort to develop a National ClimateService to complement the existingNational Weather Service. His visitprovided an excellent opportunity forCLIMAS team members to learn aboutwhat is going on at NOAA and toshowcase some of our research. We alsodiscussed how a National ClimateService could benefit stakeholders inthe Southwest and suggested someideas to him about how we think aClimate Services operation might bestructured, as well as what specificservices might be offered. We will beclosely following developments inWashington, D.C. with regard to howthe Climate Services initiative unfolds,and will continue to provide insights,suggestions, and guidance when andwhere appropriate.