climate 2.0: usable climate science and services for decision...

NCAR

CAM T341- Jim Hack NCAR/ORNLLawrence Buja,

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, Colorado

Climate 2.0: Usable Climate Science and Services for Decision Makers

“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given

us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral

responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.” Walter Orr Roberts

Lawrence Buja

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, Colorado

CLIMATE 2.0:

Usable Climate Science & Services

for Decision Makers

NCAR

Climate and Climate Models

The IPCC Process

A Dark Future: Geoengineering

Looking Forward: IPCC AR5

The Rise of Regional Modeling

Usable Science for Society

NCAR/NSF Scientific facilities

CISLComputational & Information Systems

NESLNCAR Earth System Laboratory

- US National Science Foundation FFRDC- 900 Staff, 500 Scientists/Engineers, 4 Boulder campuses- Governed by > 70 universities

EOLEarth Observing Laboratory

RAL Research Applications Laboratory

ISP: Integrated Science Program (crosscutting)

Spin, Science and Climate Change

“Climategate”

4 Core Conclusions from Climate Science

1. Climate Change is occurring.

2. Main cause is human activity.

3. Changes in climate are already

harming humans & the environment.

4. Harm is like to grow to higher levels

w/o extensive Adaptation & Mitigation

Robust results, independent of hacked

emails or minor errata in the IPCC report

“Society has three choices: Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer” John Holdren (US Science Adviser)

“Climate Change

is undeniable”

NCARTra

nsp

ort

atio

n

Fo

recast L

ead

Tim

e

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats

Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Pro

tectio

n o

f

Life

& P

rop

ert

y

Sp

ace

Op

era

tio

n

Re

cre

atio

n

Eco

sys

tem

Sta

te/L

oca

l

Pla

nnin

g

Envi

ronm

ent

Flo

od

Mitig

atio

n

& N

avi

ga

tio

n

Ag

ricultu

re

Re

se

rvo

ir

Co

ntr

ol

Ene

rgy

Co

mm

erc

e

Benefits

Hyd

rop

ow

er

Fir

e W

ea

the

r

He

alth

Forecast

Uncertainty

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Week

Months

Seasons

Years

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Weather vs Climate

Weather Prediction (WRF)

Climate

Prediction

(NRCM)

Climate

Change

(CESM)

Trenberth

The Earth Climate System

NCAR

CAM T341- Jim Hack/ORNL

What does a climate model look like?

NCAR

Climate of the last Millennium

Caspar AmmannNCAR/CGD

NCAR


The IPCC Process




Usable Climate for Society

NCAR

NSF/DOE IPCC ProjectNCAR, ORNL, NERSC, ANL

6-Year Timeline

2008: Climate Model/Data-systems development

2009: Climate Model Control Simulations

2010: IPCC Historical and Future Simulations

2011: Data Postprocessing & Analysis

2012: Scientific Synthesis

2013: Publication

Observations

of the

Earths Climate System

Simulations

Past, Present

Future Climate States

Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Stage 3. Future Scenarios: 4 2000-2100 IPCC Scenarios from end of historical run

Commit 2100

B1 2100

A1B 2100

A1 2100

3. Future Scenarios

01000

Years

TS (G

lob

ally

ave

rage

d s

urf

ace

tem

per

atu

re)

Stage 1. 1870 control run: 1000 years with constant 1870 forcing: Solar, GHG, Volcanic Sulfate, O3

1. 1870 control

Stage 2. Historical: 1870-2000 run using time-evolving, observed, Solar, GHG, Volcanoes, O3

1870

2000

2. Historicala

Probablistic Climate Simulations

b c d e

18701870 1870 1870

20002000

20002000

NCAR

2030: A Warmer and Wetter World

NCAR

Temperature

at 2030

Averages and Extremes

NCAR

Precipitation

at 2030

Averages and Extremes

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

Observations

Simulated

5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt

Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”

transition

Simulation of Future Climate

Marika Holland, NCAR

If anything, we are being

much too conservative!

Is the IPCC being too Alarmist?

M. R. Manning, J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart & D. P. van

VuurenNature Geoscience 3, 376 - 377 (2010)doi:10.1038/ngeo880

Arctic September Sea Ice Extent

Observations and IPCC Projections

Observed Emissions vs SRES

Scenarios for IPCC AR4

NCAR


The IPCC Process

A Dark Future: Lessons from the

Past and Geoengineering




But, should

we really be

worried?

Lessons from the Past

If we continue on the “Business as

usual” scenario, significant changes

begin to be observed at 4x CO2

NCAR

Global Annual Mean Energy Budget

Annual Mean Surface Temperature

Permian coupled model run for

2700 years to new equilibrium state

Forcing of 10X increase in CO2and Permian paleogeography

Ts> = 8°C

CCSM3 T31X3

Kiehl and Shields

NCARWignall(2005)

Clear

Some

None

Evidence

Inefficient mixing seen

in Permian ocean:

Indicative of anoxia,

consistent with large

extinction event

Geoengineering strategies

• Space mirrors, (Wood, Angel)

• High Altitude Sulphur injections

• Seeding stratocumulus clouds

to brighten clouds

• Sequestration of CO2

• Iron Fertilization, ...

Phil Rasch NCAR

We are not proposing that geo-engineering be carried out!

We are proposing that the implications should be carefully

explored.

Title slide

From Church, White, & Arblaster

Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, June 15, 1991. Gases and solids injected 20 km into the stratosphere.

NCAR

NCAR

Add sulfate at a rate of 0.5 Pinatubo/yr

1650 Little Ice Age

1: IPCC A2

2: 0.3%

3: 0.3-0.9%

NCAR

2: 0.3%

3: 0.3-0.9%

4. Commitment

1. A2

Maintaining A2 TS at commitment level by reducing solar irradiance

Question: These geoengineering approaches both involve “dimming” the sun. What is

the impact on global food production of a 1% decrease in incoming solar radiation

NCAR


The IPCC Process





IPCC Modeling Centers & AR5 Timeline

T42 2.8°

FV 2.0°

T85 1.4°

FV 1.0°

T170 0.7°

FV 0.5°

T340 .36°

FV 0.25°

FV 0.1°

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ho

rizo

nta

l G

rid

Siz

e (

Km

)310km

220km

160km

110km

78km

55km

39km

28km

11km

Lawrence Buja (NCAR)

GlobalGeneral Atm/Ocn

Circulation

Continental Scale

Flow

Carbon Cycle

+ BGC Spinups

Regional

MJO/MLC

Convergence

IPCC AR31998

IPCC AR42004 4TF

Sub-Regional

Hurricanes

IPCC AR52010 500TF

CCSM Grand Challenge2010 1PF

Source: GSFC

CCSM at ¼ ° ATM 1/10°OCN

Courtesy Dr. David Bader, PCMDI/LLNL/DOE

IPCC AR5 (2013) Scenarios

1. IPCC “Classic + ” Mitigation Scenarios:

• 100 & 300-year climate change simulations

• Medium resolution

• Core “required” + optional Tier 1 and Tier 2 simulations

• Carbon, Nitrogen & Biogeochemical cycles

• 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

from IAM community

• Quantify investment return of mitigation strategies

2. New Climate Change “Adaptation” Simulations:

• Short-term (30-year) climate predictions

• Single scenario

• High-resolution (0.5 or 0.25 resolution)

• For impacts, policy and decision making communities.

2010

2030

3. Future Scenario

01000

Years

TS

(G

lob

ally

ave

rag

ed

surf

ace

tem

pe

ratu

re)

1. 1965 Spin-up

Deterministic Climate Prediction

2. Historical(Data Assimilation)

NCAR

RCPs in perspective – CO2 emissions

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1202000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Em

issio

ns (

GtC

O2)

MiniCAM 4.5

IMAGE 2.6

AIM 6.0

MES-A2R 8.5

IMAGE 2.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Em

issi

on

s (M

tN2O

)

Stabilization range (10-90th percentile)

Baseline range (10-90th percentile)

Post-SRES (min/max)

Selected scenarios (min/max)

( 671ppm, +3.7 , NIES )

( 900ppm, +4.5 , IIASA )

( 550ppm, +--- , PNNL )

( 424ppm, <2 , MNP )

( 370ppm, <2 , MNP )

From Moss et al., 2008

NCAR

CCSM4 IPCC AR5 Simulations

NCAR IBM P575 “Bluefire”

NCAR


The IPCC Process





Image courtesy of Canada DND

Climate 2.0 - Usable Science for Society

The fundamental question that society is asking

of climate science has dramatically changed.

Climate 1.0 Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?• Classic, low-resolution, global climate modeling (past 40 years)• After IPCC AR4 findings, the question is now….

Climate 2.0 What is the impact of this climate change

on our coupled human & natural systems?

• Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts?

• Adaptation and mitigation - options & limits?

• Regional/Local focus on “usable” science• Sustainable Systems: Energy, Food, Water, Health, Cities, Ecosystems

• Societal Impacts: GIS, extremes, climate services

Addressing these much more complex, questions requires:• Vast improvements to existing climate tools ( CESM & WRF/NRCM )

• Integrating new approaches, priorities, capabilities,

• New collaborators & partners

NCAR

NCAR’s very high-resolutionWeather Research Forecast Model

WRF Real-time 36hr Prediction

at 1.33 km Resolution

Radar Observations for

Time of Prediction

(Weisman 2008)

Springtime storms

NCAR

Precision WRF: WRF-Hurricane,

WRF-Chem, WRF-Health, WRF-Crop

WRF Chem predicting CO concentrations across US

based on known emissions and prevailing weather

(Barth 2010)Barth

NCAR

NCAR

WRF Example: Extreme Applications

Hurricane

Simulation

62 m Resolution

Resolving

Turbulence Scales

(Rotunno 2009)

NCAR

Regional Climate Simulation for 2046

Holland

NCAR

NCAR

Multi-decadal Regional Climate Predictions of High-

Impact Weather Over North America & the Caribbean

12 km

36 km

4 km

4 km

• Global Model: 3 Ensembles from 1950-2060

• NRCM: 1995-2005 Obs, 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055,

• 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km.

• Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periodsGreg Holland

Application of Indices to Directly Assess

Damage from Weather Extremes

3 2( ) 5( ) 5( )65 50 15

65,

7, 7,

m h t

m

t t

v R vWHI

For v

If v v

The Willis

Hurricane Index

vm is the maximum winds

Rh is the radius of hurricane force winds

Vt is the translational speed

Now being applied to both real-time WRF forecasts and

NRCM climate predictions

Recent extension to coastal infrastructure

(Holland and Owens 2009)

CAPRA Example:

Costa Rican earthquake and historical hurricane risk at canton level, using a general socioeconomic model to assess exposed value and vulnerability.

What is Costa Rica’s risk in 2050?

NCAR

WRF Next Generation Model

Icosahedral grid with local refinement capability;

- For both weather and regional earth system predictions

- Basis for LANL’s next-gen climate ocean model

- Includes Coupled Data Assimilation

(Skamarock 2010)

40-320 km grid baroclinic wave simulation, 10 days

Vertical velocity contours at 1, 5, and 10 km (c.i. = 3 m/s)

500 m Hex grid supercell at 2 hours

NCAR


The IPCC Process




Usable Science for Society

Weather, Climate and HealthMary Hayden, Andy Monaghan

Phoenix: An Framework of local Vulnerability

& Adaptive capacity to Extreme Heat

Ghana: The WX-Meningitis Project

Uganda: CDC Modeling Human

Plague Incidence

North America: Aedes aegyti range

expansion in the Americas

Mexico: Dengue transects

Resource

management

Impacts, outcomes,

decision-making

Resource use

and

management

N-VIA: Quantifying Societal Impactsto Climate and Weather Risks

Governance

Decisions

Policies

Scenarios

(N-VIA: NCAR - Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation framework)

Extreme Heat Vulnerability Framework

Plague in Uganda

• Plague is a highly virulent and flea-borne

disease caused by Yersinia pestis.

• Infected fleas travel on rats that intermittently

come into contact with humans

• Local rat populations fluctuate in response to

weather and climate variability

53

Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR

NCAR/CDC Collaboration

NCAR is working with CDC to:

• Generate a multi-year high resolution climate dataset over Uganda

for employment in a model to simulate plague incidence

• Improve surveillance for plague cases by training the regional

network of traditional healers to diagnose and refer suspect plague

cases to clinics

• Couple spatio-temporal risk maps with focal dissemination of health

information and provider training to target high risk populations

54


NCAR

WRF Model Domain and Topography

Terrain Elevation (m)

SUDAN

UGANDA

D.R.C.

Lake

Albert

55Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR

NCAR

2-m Temperature (C)

NCEP-DOE-II WRF 2-kmWRF 18-km

Problem: Current climate datasets are too coarse (~200-km resolution)

to resolve the complex topography and land use variability in the WN

Solution: Dynamical Downscaling over WN: 200-km to 2-km resolution

Example for 2 meter Temperature:

56


1999-2008 Annual Mean Climate Fields

Total RainfallNear-surface Temperature


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m/m

on

th)

Month

RAIN

Plague cases are associated with wetter areas above the

Rift Valley escarpment

• Case and control locations were

discriminated based on the following climatic variables (10 yr averages).

•Total precipitation in February

(dry season) (+)

•Total precipitation in October (wet

season) (+)

•January specific humidity (-)

•Above 1300 m (+)

•AUC = 0.93

MacMillan et al., in prep Hayden and Monaghan, NCAR

Traditional Healers


Training

60


Low-literacy educational materials

61


NCAR

The Challenge…Maintaining healthy national and local economies,

in a rapidly changing world of increasing population and GNP,

all accessing a finite resource base.

It’s all about sustainability of Energy, Food & Water…

While maintaining your critical Human systems

- Transportation, Agriculture, Health & Quality of life…

Without disrupting your critical natural ecosystems…

NCAR

Thanks! Any Questions?

Lawrence Buja, National Center for Atmospheric Research

www.ral.ucar.edu/csap

NCAR

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