climate action tracker equity update - cop 23
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Action Tracker Equity
Methodology Update 2017
Climate equity and the
Paris Agreement
Paola Yanguas (Climate Analytics)
6 November 2017
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Why the update?
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• The need to evaluate adequacy of targets and policies against 1.5°C to
reflect the higher ambition of the Paris Agreement long-term temperature
target.
• The need to include literature published in the last few years, which was
excluded from our equity ranges
• The need to reflect better recent changes in countries' socioeconomic and
emissions trends.
• The need to differentiate between levels of inaction, as so many countries
fell into the “Inadequate” under our previous rating system.
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2017 rating system update
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Differentiating between levels of inaction
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glo
bal ag
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Warming would reach 3°C
Warming likely limited to 2°C
Warming likely limited to
1.5°C
Warming likely be lower than
1.5°C
Warming would reach 4°C
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Summary results
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BHUTAN
5 Countries
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Story 1 – Country Performance
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There are only 2 countries rated as
Paris Agreement compatible
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Story 1 – Country Performance
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Methodology_presentation_Final_Calibri.pptx
Only another 5 countries are
coming close to be
compatible with Paris
Agreement
BHUTAN
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Story 1 – Country Performance
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Most of the world has targets
that are not compatible the
Paris Agreement
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Story 1 – Country Performance
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Many countries have targets
outside their Fair Share range
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Main changes – Very few countries on track
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It is harder to become role model
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Main changes - Insufficient
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We have renamed the “Medium” category “Insufficient” because countries
rated “medium” would still require others to take considerably more action.
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Main changes – Highly Insufficient
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Similarly, so many countries fell into the “Inadequate” category that it was
difficult to differentiate between their (insufficient) levels of ambition.
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Main changes – Critically Insufficient
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We have therefore divided the “Inadequate” category into two: “Highly
insufficient,”, and “Critically insufficient”—reserved for those with the least
amount of ambition
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Main changes – Country movements
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Downgrade of China. Reflects recent socioeconomic and emissions trends
Upgrade of other countries. Wider equity range for those countries.
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Factoring in Current Policies trajectories
Countries with consistent targets and policies
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While some countries behave as expected and have no significant
inconsistency between targets and policies
Nationally Determined
Contribution Rating
Current Policies
Rating
For example INDIA in the graphic above is completely yellow indicating it’s NDC target and
Current Policies both fall in the same 2°C Compatible range. With a slightly stronger
target and policies to meet that target, India would be able to meet it’s Paris Agreement
obligations
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Factoring in Current Policies trajectories
Countries not meeting targets
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If countries were rated based on current action, rating would be different for
many countries
Nationally Determined
Contribution Rating
Current Policies
Rating
For example AUSTRALIA has Current Policies Projections that are not on track to meet
it’s NDC target. A stronger target and even stronger policies are needed.
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Factoring in Current Policies trajectories
Countries overachieving targets
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If countries were rated based on current action, rating would be different for
many countries
Nationally Determined
Contribution Rating
Current Policies
Rating
For example RUSSIA NDC target is less stringent than it’s Current Policies trajectory and
it’s target is unlikely to drive emissions reductions. In this case a much stronger target is
required so help drive policies in the direction of being 1.5°C Paris Agreement compatible.
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CONCLUSION
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• The update now better reflects the higher ambition of the Paris
Agreement long-term temperature target of 1.5°C and better differentiates
the differences in targets and policies that exist between countries.
• Now we are able to assign a temperature outcome to a target, if all other
countries were to follow similar ambition levels.
• The vast majority of countries have NDC targets that are insufficient to
meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. These weak targets must be
strengthened.
– A number of these countries are not on track to meet their current weak
targets and policies need to be significantly strengthened.
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EXTRA SLIDES
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Inclusion of 1.5°C allowances
11/27/2017www.climateactiontracker.org
20
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CONCLUSION
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