Climate and Ecosystems

Mickey Glantz

3 February 2009

IAFS 3000

CUmickeyglantz@hotmail.com

A Global STEW

CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations

Overfishing

Land degradation

Water Depletion

Unsustainable consumption

…..

1900 1950 2000

The past 50 years has seen a dramatic degradation of the earth’s natural capital

Rockstrom

Commoner’s “4 Laws of Ecology”

1. Everything is connected to everything else.

2. Everything has to go somewhere or there is

no such place as away.

3. Everything is always changing.

4. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

rekkerd.org/img/random/ citarum_pollution.jpgCitarum River, Indonesia

(KEEP THESE IN MIND)

Millennium Ecosystems Assessment: its mission

• Ecosystems goods and services for Human well-being

What happens if we flip it around?

Human goods and services for Ecosystems well being

A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers

Assessment

Monitoring Research

Stakeholders: Governments Private Sector Civil Society

What is a policy-relevant assessment?

A scientific assessment applies the judgement of experts to existing knowledge to provide scientifically credible answers to policy relevant

questions. From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

Ecosystem Services

The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

• climate regulation• disease regulation

• flood regulation

ProvisioningGoods

produced or provided by ecosystems

• food • fresh water• fuel wood

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-material benefits from ecosystems

• spiritual • recreational

• aesthetic• inspirational• educational

SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production

From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

Different ecosystems providing ecosystem services

Ch. 19 Cultivated SystemsCh. 20 Dryland systemsCh. 21 Forest systemsCh. 22 Urban systemsCh. 23 Inland Water systemsCh. 24 Coastal systemsCh. 25 Marine systemsCh. 26 Polar SystemsCh. 27 Mountain systemsCh. 28 Island systems

From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

MA Chapters

MA: Largest assessment of the health of Earth’s ecosystems

• Experts and Review Process– Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries– 80-person independent board of review editors– Review comments from 850 experts and governments

• Governance– Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000– Authorized by governments through 4 conventions – Partnership of UN agencies, conventions, business, non-

governmental organizations with a multi-stakeholder board of directors

MA’s Defining Features

• Demand-driven– Providing information requested by governments, business,

civil society

• Assessment of current state of knowledge– A critical evaluation of information concerning the

consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being – Intended to be used to guide decisions on complex public

issues

• Authoritative information– Clarifies where there is broad consensus within the scientific

community and where issues remain unresolved

• Policy relevant not policy prescriptive

Overview of Findings– Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more

rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of time in human history,

• largely to meet rapidly growing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fiber and fuel

– The changes contributed to substantial net gains in human well-being and economic development,

• But gains achieved at growing costs such as degradation of many ecosystem services,

• increased risks of nonlinear changes, and • the exacerbation of poverty for some groups

– The degradation of ecosystem services could grow significantly worse during the first half of this century

• barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

– The challenge of reversing the degradation of ecosystems while meeting increasing demands for their services can be partially met

• these involve significant changes in policies, institutions and practices

Observed recent impacts of climate changes on ecosystems:

– Changes in

• species distributions• population sizes• timing of reproduction or migration events• the frequency of pest and disease outbreaks

• Potential future impacts

– By the end of the century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally

• Net harmful impact on ecosystem services

– there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide

• if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2o C above preindustrial levels (medium certainty). This would require CO2 stabilization at less than 450 ppm.

Melting Glaciers

Columbia Glacier, Alaska

Aral Sea, Central Asia

Desertification

Creation of desert-like conditions

Tropical deforestation:a creeping phenomenon

Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder

5.00E+06

1.00E+07

1.50E+07

2.00E+07

2.50E+07

3.00E+07

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Year

Total Melt AreaApril - October

20021998

19951991

1992

1996

2005

1987

1983

2007

2007

1996

1998

Greenland Total Melt Area Greenland Total Melt Area – – 2007 value exceeds last maximum 2007 value exceeds last maximum

by 10% by 10%

From Hansen ppt

Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Surface Melt on Greenland

From Hansen ppt

Water pollution in Chinese river

Crab-kill and other living resources

Coral Reef off Fiji (Photo: Kevin Roland)

Stresses on Coral Reefs

From Hansen ppt

Images:Sea Ice: Claire Parkinson & Robert TaylorPolar Bears: Unknown

Future loss of Arctic sea ice could result in a loss of 2/3 of the world's polar bears within 50 years.

Source: U.S. Geological Survey www.usgs.gov/newsroom/special/polar%5Fbears/

Arctic Change:

Human Challenge

• Considerable progress has been made in fighting poverty – life expectancy increasing

– infant mortality decreasing

– agricultural production increasing, etc.

• Major problems remain– 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day

– 1 billion people do not have access to clean water

– More than 2 billion people have no access to sanitation

– 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards considered acceptable by WHO

– 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due to biomass burning

Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54

Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services

Water

One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity.

Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years

Food

Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years

Timber

Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population.

Wood demand will double in next 50 years.

From: Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP), RIVM ppt

Pollination of coffee in Costa Rica

Twice as many bee visits plants near the forest

Coffee plants near the forests had 20% greater yields and 27% fewer deformed beans

Human bees -hand pollination of apples in China

Due to decline of bees and other pollinators

Line Gordon: Stockholm Resilience Centre

The Lake Victoria Story

• Nile Perch

Lake Victoria as an example of The Iron Law of “unintended consequences”

Lake Victoria vs. African population growth

4561

84

115

159

9 12 16 21 26 32 36

218

246

0

50

100

150

200

250

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015

Lake Victoria Africa Average

Note: Figures for 2010 and 2015 are estimates.

Population explosion around buffer zoneAfrica

• Population growth around a 100 km buffer zone of Lake Victoria

• Population growth around Lake Victoria, East Africa, is the highest in Africa

Invasive species attacking Lake VictoriaAfrica

These images show water hyacinth infestation and control of such invasive species

• 1995: Image shows several water-hyacinth-choked bays (yellow arrows)

• 2001: A visible reduction of water hyacinth on Lake Victoria

Re-defining sustainable development

– Markets do not tell us the ecological truth

– What constitutes good life

– The consequences of changes in global economies (China and India)

– The role of biomimcry in greening business and society.

Odeh Al-Jayyousi, IUCN @ OECD World Forum

Do We Need Nature?

• This was the topic of a Shell Oil Co. essay contest

It’s sad that we have to ask this question because …

it suggests that the answer is not self-evident !