Climate and Energy

A Today Problem with a Today Solution:

Carbon Removals

Peter ReadMassey University Centre for Energy

Researcjh

“Most critically, researchers know relatively little about feedback effects that might enhance – or weaken – the pace and effects of climate change.”.

“Key sticking points include the inability of global climate models to [re]produce the amount of sea level rise observed over the past couple of decades and whether ice flows at the bases of glaciers is accelerating or not. How volatile the Antarctic and Greenland glaciers might become in a warmer world is therefore pretty much guesswork”Nature, pp280-281, 8.Feb, 2007

So yes, the science is uncertainWould you get on a plane that had a 1 per cent chance of crashing?

Surface Melt on Greenland

Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester

OKWhat’s the “today solution”?

CARBON RFEMOVALSBiosphere Carbon Stock Management

Read, P. and A.Parshotam, 2007. “Holistic Greenhouse Gas Management Strategy (with Reviewers’

Comments and author rejoinders)”. Institute of Policy Studies Working Paper 07/1, VUW //ips.ac.nz/publications/publications/list/7

Read, P., 2007 “Biosphere Management of Carbon Stocks.:Addressing the threat of

abrupt climate change in the next few decades.”Forthcoming Editorial Essay in Climatic Change

Emissions reductions

Kaya Identity:

Emissions =

Population

* per capita income

* energy intensity of output

*carbon intensity of energy

Carbon removals

Carbon removed by energy system =Biofuel supply    * carbon/GJ in biofuel * storage efficiency with biofuel ††

 – fossil fuel supply * carbon / GJ in fossil fuel * (1 – CCS efficiency with fossil fuel)]

Where          Biofuel supply =           (demand for energy / energy efficiency – fossil fuel supply – non-

fuel renewable supply)          †† not necessarily CCS - can be biochar in soil linked to pyrolysis

supplies of bio-oil, or plantation stock of biomass raw material. 

Comparison of carbon stock management with emission reductions in mitigating the level of CO2 (in ppm) in the atmosphere

 

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

[CO

2]

A

Z

F

A SRES-A2Z SRES-A2 with a transition to zero emissions technologies between 2011 and 2035F SRES-A2 with a transition to negative emissions technologies over the same period

Table 1: Summary of key illustrative dataOutputs linear increase to2035 then 1.5% tech progress till 2060ForestryLumber 10Gt/yr 14.5Gt/yrC content of Biochar 1.2Gt/yr 1.74Gt/yrBiodiesel 20EJ/yr 29EJ/yrElectricity 23.1EJ/yr 33.5EJ/yrEthanol 31.4EJ/yr 45.6EJ/yrStock of C in bio-char soil improvement 15Gt 52GtStock of C in standing plantation 120Gt 183GtStock of C in avoided deforestation 8Gt 38GtStock of C from CO2 of fermentation 2.4Gt 11.5GtStock of C from flue gas CCS 9Gt 60Gt Sugar CaneEthanol 115EJ/yr 167EJ/yrElectricity 85EJ/yr 123EJ/yrStock of C from CO2 of fermentation 7.2Gt 34.7GtStock of C from flue gas CCS 9.2Gt 60.5GtSwitchgrassEthanol 113EJ/yr 163EJ/yrElectricity(net) 4.8EJ/yr 7.0EJ/yrStock of C from CO2 of fermentation 8.6Gt 41.6GtStock of C from flue gas CCS 13.8Gt 90Gt

Aggregate energy suppliesEthanol 259EJ/yr 376EJ/yrBiodiesel 20 EJ/yr 29EJ/yrElectricity 113 EJ/yr 164 EJ/yrCarbon cycle impactsC in oil displaced by bio-fuels 8.38Gt/yr 12.2Gt/yr\C in coal displaced by bio-electricity 4.23Gt/yr 6.14Gt/yrStock of C left as in situ fossil fuel 164Gt 549GtStock of C in standing plantation 120Gt 183GtStock of C in avoided deforestation 8Gt 38GtStock of C in bio-char soil improvement 15Gt 52GtStock of C from CO2 of fermentation 18Gt 88GtStock of C from flue gas CCS 32Gt 210GtTotal C reduction in atmosphere and proximatesinks (e.g. ocean surface layers)with 357Gt 1120Gtand without flue gas CCS 325Gt 910Gt

So:

Peak oil and carbon removals go hand in hand ?

Not quite:

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Year

CO

2 (p

pm

) A

D

G

H

I

A SRES-A2D SRES-A2 with sugar cane, switch-grass and forestry land use change activitiesG SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 30 tC per ha released through land use changeH SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 90 tC per ha released through land use change I SRES-A2 with three land use change activities and 300 tC per ha released through land use change

Biosphere Carbon Stock Management

1. extract more CO2 from the atmosphere2. stock it somewhere safe

As a precautionary strategyA Do low cost enabling things first (be prepared)B Do costly things later if need be (enabled by A)

As regards 1, there is only one way

It involves large scale land improvement to raise its productivity and yield all we need in co-produced food/fibre with fuel

(call it “Global Gardening” – if we look after Mother Nature there’s some chance she will look after us )

It should be good news for farmers and landowners

As regards 2

i) standing forestii) Biochar soil improvement + bio-oilsiii) BECS (Bio-Energy with CCS)iv) More wooden houses and other structures

As regards A

1. Invest in forest plantations to stock carbon and act as a strategic reserve of biomass raw material

(quite useful as timber if the climate change panic goes away)

2. Invest in a vehicle fleet that is compatible with biofuels(a useful hedge against ‘peak oil’ – the dear oil age

3. Invest in biofuel supply systems• maybe 2nd generation cellulosic ethanol• maybe gasification and Fischer Tropsche liquids• maybe pyrolysis with biochar for soil improvement• maybe on-farm gasification linked to ‘herd-homes’ and riparian tree plantations to prevent pollution of our rivers

An investment should not be treated as a cost

As regards B

Be ready to retrofit CCS onto all large stationary furnaces

CCS is a pure cost

But it can very easily be made 100 per cent effective – biomass is coal’s best friend !

But, mix in 20 per cent wood chips and you get zero emissions

From 100 tons fuel, 80 tons fossil results in 16 tons emissions20 tons wood chips results in negative 16 tons emissionsNet emissions - zero

So, a today solution to the today problem

• Mandate a rising proportion of biofuels

• Mandate a large proportion of flexifuel cars in the new car import mix

• Mandate importers of 2nd hand cars to adapt them to 10 per cent ethanol

• Mandate investment by stationary emitters [both energy, and land based] in a rising area of new plantations

Do not rely on price signals – today’s price is a weak driver for investment decisions