www.ecologic.eu

R. Andreas Kraemer – Director – Ecologic.euBerlin – Brussels – Vienna | Washington DC

Climate and Energy Policyin Germany and the EU

www.ecologic.eu

Preview of Content

Security through Energy Policy: Germany's Strategy in Context

EU Climate and Energy Policy

Energy 2020: A Strategy for Competitive, Sustainable and Secure Energy(COM(2010) 639 final of 10 November 2010)

Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 2050(8 March 2011)

Energy Efficiency Plan 2011 (COM(2011) 109 final of 8 March 2011)

Exchange & Cooperation between and with the EU & Member StatesPolicy Learning in the EU and Germany (Looking at the Evidence)Ideas for Linking around the World, ... (Designing the Future)

Discussion with you: What after Fukushima?

www.ecologic.eu

Germany's Energy and Security Strategy in Context

Germany in a Sweet Spot, but Concerned about Global Stability

"Climate-Safe Future": Efficiency, Renewable up; Fossils, Nuclear out

Domestic Fossils Insignificant; Lignite in long-term phase out

Efficiency Supported by Energy Taxes and other Supporting PoliciesRenewables: Feed-In Tariffs, BioEnergy (not BioFuel) >> Growth, Jobs, ...100% Renewable Power in 2040?; 100% Renewable Energy in 2050?Nuclear Phase-Out, Adopted - Abandoned - "Moratorium" after Fukushima

Doing Well by Doing Good: Exporting SolutionsIn the EU: "Community Method" plus Horizontal & Vertical Policy Learning;International Climate Initiative; IRENA, ICAP, Transatlantic Climate Bridge

Policy Continuity Across Parties; Conflicts between Policy Communities

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy I – Drivers (Strong Momentum)

Concerns (European Parliament)Greenland ice sheet, Arctic sea iceSiberian permafrost, Sea-level Rise (Venice & the Dutch)

Political and Diplomatic Capital in:

UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Cancùn, G8 > G20+

EU Emission Trading SystemEU External Policy

Neighbourhood Policy; Enlargement of the Single Market

Vehicle for Developing EU Foreign and Security Policy

Voters' Expectations and Public Pressure (Al Gore)

Focus on Economic Opportunities (EU ETS)

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy II – Trends and Changes

Integration of Policies >> Policy Coherence

Climate & Energy; Foreign & Security; Russia; Internal Market &Enlargement; Neighbourhood Policy; Research & Technology; Transport;Agriculture; Trade & Development; ....

Shift to Demand Side Policy (Efficiency) and Demand ManagementEfficiency Standards (Appliances, Cars, Buildings, ...)Smart Grid + Demand Response (via load-based tariffs?)

Opportunities in Decentralized Systems >> New Forms of Governance

Challenges the "Centralization Paradigm" of European Policies

Nuclear Power (Euratom 1957), Proliferation, Security

Iran >>> Arab States, Pakistan, India, North Korea, ...

>>> Credibility ?

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy III – Energy 2020

EU Energy Goals from June 2010 "Europe 2020 –Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth"

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 20% (30%) by 2020Increase Share of Renewable Energy to 20% by 2020Improve Energy Efficiency by 20% by 2020

The Energy 2020 Strategy focuses on 5 Priorities:Achieving an Energy Efficient Europe

Building a Truly Pan-European Integrated Energy Market

Empowering Consumers andAchieving the Highest Level of Safety and Security

Extending Europe's Leadership in Energy Technology & Innovation

Strengthening the External Dimension of the EU Energy Market

Official document: www.energy.eu/directives/com-2010-0639.pdfBrochure: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/2011_energy2020_en.pdf

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy III – Energy 2020 (Forecast)

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy III – Energy 2020 (Desire)

80% Cut in EnergyConsumption with:

Currently availableTechnologies

ConsumptionChanges only viaChanging Prices

Participation of allEconomySectors

Efficient Pathway:- 25% by 2020- 40% by 2030- 60% by 2040

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy IV – Roadmap 2050

Focus on Energy Efficiency ("Key"), Emission Trading Helps Efficiency

Meet 20% Energy Efficiency Target, and Cut GHG Emission by 25%

Mobilizes Annual Investment of 270 bn Euros 2010-2050; 1.5% of GDP

Saves Annually 175-320 bn Euros 2010-2050 (based on 70$/barrel)

Annual Air Quality & Health Benefits: 27 bn € (2030) to 88 bn € (2050)

Secures Long-Term Prosperity, Safeguards against Price Shocks

Creates (net) 1.5 million New Jobs (by 2020), Improves Skill Profiles

Mirrors "Green Growth" Action in Korea, China, Brazil, India

Stimulates (& would benefit) from New Energy Technology (Research)

Would be Assisted by Managing Ecosystems as Carbon Sinks

www.ecologic.eu

EU Climate & Energy Policy V – Energy Efficiency Plan 2011

On 4 February 2011, Heads of EU State and Goverments Resolved to:

"Take determined action to tap the considerable potential for higherenergy savings of buildings, transport, and products and processes."

On 8 March 2011, European Commision Adopts Energy Efficiency Planwith Proposals for Achieving the 20% Efficiency Target for 2020:

Governments Set Example (Renovation of Public Buildings, Procurement)

Efficiency Standards for Industrial Equipment,Energy Audits, and Energy Management Systems

Improvement in the of Generation Power and Heat (Co-Generation)

Investment in Smart Grids and Smart Meters (Empowering Consumers)

www.ecologic.eu

External Aspects of Energy Security (for the EU)

Reliable, Affordable, Sustainable Flows of Energy into the EU

From Scarcity and Competition to Strategic Partnerships

(new) Energy Charter Transit Protocol (Russia)

Expand Energy Internal Market to Neighbours(Energy Community Treaty >> South-Eastern Europe)

Integrate Energy Security Aspects in

European Neighbourhood Policy (e.g. Algeria)

EU Trade Policy, pursued through the WTO

Relations with Developing Countries and

Fast-Growing Economies (e.g. China)

www.ecologic.eu

Energy Community Treaty 2005 – Aims

Internal Energy Market with South Eastern Europe (Balkans, Caucasus)

Legal and Economic Framework for Network Energies (Power, Gas)

Stable and Regulatory Market FrameworkCapable of Attracting Investment

Single Regulatory Space for Trade (EU Emission Trading System)

Enhance Security of Supply and Environment

Develop Electricity and Gas Market Competitionon Broader Geographical Scale [Link to EU Neighbourhood Policy]

>>> Expansion of the European Community or Union

www.ecologic.eu

Energy Charter Treaty 1994 – Purpose and Aims

Integrating Energy Sectors of the formerSoviet Union and Eastern Europe into

European (EU) Markets

World Markets

Focus on Trade, Transit and Investment

Protocol on Energy Efficiency and Environment

[EU Wants an Energy Charter Transit Protocol]

Russia ('Energy Superpower') Refuses to Ratify

>>> Energy Charter Treaty Dead, or Suspended?(Still Is the Most Advanced International Framework)

www.ecologic.eu

Policy Learning Experience I – Germany and the EU

Ministers of Environment of Bund and Länder (16+1) Meet BiannuallyMeetings are Prepared by Meetings of the Chiefs of Staff

Ministers: Steering Committee for Working GroupsWater 1965, Länder Initiative

Waste 1963

Air Pollution 1964

Nature, Landscape, Recreation 1971

Soil Protection 1971

Genetic Technology 1991

Chemical Safety 1996

Sustainable Development 2001

Separate Bio-Regional Structures, e.g. River Basin Organisations

• Länder Directors

• Work Programs

• Sub-Groups

• Focal Points

• Web Sites

• Rotating Chairs (2y)

• Federal Involvement

• EU Relevance

Kraemer, R. Andreas 2007: “Federalism and Environmental Regulation in Germany and the EU.” AICGS Policy Report, No. 31 Federalism and Environmentalism in the United States and Germany, 7-32. http://ecologic.eu/2095

www.ecologic.eu

Policy Learning Experience II – Germany and the EU

Treaty Infringements Procedures (> before the EU Court of Justice)

Directives Establish Rational Policy Management Systems:

MS report on Transposition, administrative Implementation, and Success

Commission reports EU-wide, makes recommendations, proposes new law

Council of Ministers and Parliament decide on new law or amendments

Vertical Policy Learning by Going Around the Policy Cycle (Spiral?)

Horizontal Policy Learning through Council Working Groups etc.

Many Entry Points for New Data, Information, Technologies etc.

www.ecologic.eu

Experience III – Evaluation of EU Experience [J. Zeitlin]

Cooperation, Coordination, and Policy Learning in the EU are:

Are Genuinely Joint and Multi-Level in their Operation

Advance Common Concerns and Interests of Member States

While Respecting their Autonomy and Diversity

Are Useful, Efficient and Flexible; Provide Benefits for all Parties

Lead to Shared Information, Comparison and Re-Assessments of Policy,and Convergence of Objectives, Performance, and Policy

Are Good for Complex and Sensitive Areas where

Diversity Precludes Harmonisation

Inaction is Politically Unacceptable

Strategic Uncertainty Recommends Mutual Learning

Zeitlin, Jonathan (2005): "Social Europe and Experimentalist Governance: Towards a New Constitutional Compromise?" inGràinne de Bùrca (ed.), EU Law and the Welfare State: In Search of Solidarity, Oxford UP, 2005: 213-41.

www.ecologic.eu

Functions and Benefits of Policy Learning

Identify 'Low-Hanging Fruit' and Widen the Range of Policy Choices

Provide 'Peer' Recognition for Pioneers, Innovators, Problem-Solvers ...

Allow for Initiation, Inter-Generational Teaching and Learning

Establish a Shared Memory of Policies (History, Background, ...)

Allow for Connectivity to the Past, Strengthening Continuity of Policy

Facilitate the Integration of Policy Fields (Expertise, Roles, Values, ...)

Policy-Makers (including Legislators), Administrators, Evaluators,Business, Media, Public Interests, Academia, Think Tanks, ...

Integration of Environmental Protection Requirements into other Policies

Replicating and Multiplying Success, but also Avoiding Mistakes !

www.ecologic.eu

Policy Learning Experience IV – International Partnerships

Knigge & Collins (2005) Find that [US-EU] Partnerships Build on:

Dedicated Individuals, Reciprocal Visits, Friendships

Agreed Objectives; Environment adding Legitimacy to the Partnership Effort

Workshops and Conferences, Exchange of Case Studies (Practicalities!)

Telecommunication, Internet, Video-Conferences

Relationships with 'Like People', not integrated across policy communities

Weak Finances, Support from Foundations and Businesses

Underused are:

Fellowships, Secondments (but some grants are available)

Reporting of Activities, Lessons Learned, Impacts, Analysis

Knigge, Markus, and Matthew Collins (2005): "An Ocean Apart? Subnational Transatlantic Cooperation". Berlin: Ecologic Institute.http://www.ecologic.de/download/verschiedenes/2005/knigge_collins_an_ocean_apart.pdf

www.ecologic.eu

Policy Learning Experience IV – International Partnerships

Knigge & Collins (2005) Report Challenges ...Funding, easy for Business, difficult for civil society and public officials

Unbalenced Resources (more in EU Member States)

Language Barrier; Suspicion that Visits are chiefly for Pleasure

Staff Fluctuation and Succession (weak Institutionalisation)

Elections and Changes in the Orientation of Government

... and Opportunities:Monitoring & Reporting, Evaluations (for Impact Analysis, and Justification)

Documenting Impacts, Costs Saved, and Mistakes Avoided !

Follow-up, and Mutual Assistance, Secondments

Use of Existing Programs (e.g. Sister City Programs)

Knigge, Markus, and Matthew Collins (2005): "An Ocean Apart? Subnational Transatlantic Cooperation". Berlin: Ecologic Institute.http://www.ecologic.de/download/verschiedenes/2005/knigge_collins_an_ocean_apart.pdf

www.ecologic.eu

Design Criteria and Elements for Policy Learning

Environmental Policy is Young and Dynamic (Need for Flexibility)

Policies on Environment and Sustainability Need:

Linkages (horizontal, vertical, diagonal, cross-policy)

Connection to Innovation and Knowledge Systems

Policy Learning Systems Need:

Support from the Top; a Core Group, and Dedication

Focus, Vision, Mission, Myths & Memories, Rhythm

'Likes' lead to Coordination | 'Variants' lead to Contestation (both good)

Facilitation, Resources, and secure, mid-term Funding

Evaluation (Indicators), Openness and Transparency, Visibility

www.ecologic.eu

Linking Sub-National Systems and Policy Learning

Link Existing Sub-National SystemsStart with Non-Critical Areas (e.g. Planning (in the European sense))

Link Existing Sub-National Bilateral PartnershipsSuch as State to State Exchanges, Sister City Programs

Disseminate Results and Benefits, Create Platforms (Social Media?)

Open/Use Existing International Fora for Provinces or StatesSuch as UNEP, UNDP, Habitat, OECD, CSD, UN/ECE, World Bank, G20

Make them more Relevant for Practice

Open Existing International Fora for Provinces and StatesSummits, Research Cooperation,

"Trilateralise" China–Europe–US

www.ecologic.eu

Enormous Hidden Cost, Not Reflected in Prices or Political Debate(Mining, Processing, Fuel Cycle, Operation, Waste, Decommissioning)

Enormous Legacy Cost in Waste, Sites, Pollution, Uninhabitable Areas

No Good for Energy Independence (only Power, Fuel is Finite)

No Business Case (needs subsidies, loan guarantees, liability waivers)

No Place in a Market-Based Energy Supply System

Weapons Programs as Technological, Economic & Political Context

No Avoiding Nuclear Proliferation to Rogue States & Terrorists

No Innocent and "Peaceful" Use of Nuclear Technology

Thus: No Justification for Third Pillar of Non-Proliferation Treaty

Before Fukushima – Lessons on Nuclear Power

www.ecologic.eu

EU Should Abolish EURATOM Treaty, Replace with Phase-Out Pact

US, EU, Japan (et alii) Governments, Regulators, Industry and Utilities

Remove the Civilian Veil and Call Nuclear Power a "Costly Mistake" andAdmit it is Incompatible with an Open, Modern, Innovative, and Just SocietyShift to 100% Renewables over 30 to 40 years (Smart Grids and Tariffs, ...)Help other Countries Especially if they Forego or Give up Nuclear WeaponsStart a "Nuclear Full-Disclosure Project" (to be expanded to all energies) on

All Subsidies, Incidents & Accidents

All Past Wrongful Non-Disclosure to an by Regulators & Elected Officials

Full Cost of Security Policies around Nuclear Technology & Nuclear Power(Diplomatic, Economic, Trade-Related, Counter-Terrorism, Military, Defense, ...)

Change the IAEA Statutes, & Re-Negotiate the Non-Proliferation Treaty

Before Fukushima – Global Nuclear Governance

www.ecologic.eu

After Fukushima – Energy [R]Evolution Japan: Electricity

Global Energy Scenario by Greenpeace and EREC: http://www.energyblueprint.info/fileadmin/media/documents/national/2008/09_gpi_japan_lr.pdfGraphics are available at the web site for the electricity sector of Japan at http://www.energyblueprint.info/538.0.html