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Climate and Environmental Change Displacement, Health and Security
Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD
UN Standing Committee for Nutrition WG on Climate Change Chair of the IUNS Climate and Nutrition Task Force
www.unscn.org
Carbon Dioxide Levels hit their highest point
in 800,000 years CO2 increased from pre-industrial level of ~ 280 ppm to > 403 ppm in 2015
Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Projected Climate impacts on Health (IPCC, 2007)
Negative Impact Positive Impact
Very High Confidence Effects on geographic range & incidence of malaria
High Confidence Undernutrition & consequent children developmental disorders Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events (heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc) Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality Cold-related deaths
Medium Confidence Diarrheal diseases
Increase in frecuency & intensity of extreme weather
events (high degree of confidence IPCC, 2007, 2012)
Coastal floods-Sea Level rise 2 to 7 million more people/ year will experience
coastal flooding by 2080 (IPCC 2007)
Impacts in Small Island Developing States and coastal areas in LAC
• Coastal flooding • Amplified storm surges • Impaired crop & food production • Salination of island fresh-water • Damaged coastal infrastructure, roads, power, water
treatment systems • Population displacement: diverse health risks (food-
water-, vector- borne diseases, respiratory, ophthalmological, mental consequences etc)
Effects of Carbon Dioxide on Protein and Minerals US Global Climate Change Research Program- Climate and Health Assessment 2015
doubling of CO2 concentration from preindustrial levels
2100
Meinshausen et al. 2013
Average effect on 125 plant species and cultivars
Ziska et al. 2004, Taub et al. 2008, and Loladze 2014.)
Droughts and Hunger 870 million people suffer from long-term hunger
By 2080 1 - 3 billion people will experience water scarcity
200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007; 2014)
Synthesis of evidence on the impacts of climate on human security interactions between livelihoods, conflict, culture & migration (IPCC, 2014)
Interventions and policies indicated by difference between initial conditions (solid black) and outcome of intervention (white circles) Some interventions (blue arrows) show net increase human security while red arrows lead to net decrease in human security
Climate Change and Human Security (IPCC 2014)
Climate change will have
significant impacts on forms of migration that
compromise human security (high agreement,
medium evidence)
Models, scenarios and observations
suggest that coastal
inundation and loss of
permafrost can lead to migration and resettlement
Changes in the incidence of
extreme events will amplify the challenges and risks of existing displacement.
Many vulnerable groups do not
have the resources to be
able to migrate to avoid the impacts of floods, storms
and droughts.
Migrants may be vulnerable to
climate impacts in destination
areas, particularly in
urban centres in developing countries
Relationship between vulnerability to environmental change and mobility
Populations most exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change have least ability to migrate
Adapted from Black et al., 2013
Climate-induced migration Migration and other forms of spatial mobility - common responses for coping with & adapting to environmental hardship, stress and risks Not a new topic: •Essam El-Hinnawi, Environmental Refugees, 1985 •First IOM definition of environmental migration, 1992 •Graeme Hugo’s Environmental concerns and Int’ migration,1996 Renewed interest: •consequences of environmental change for human well-being and population mobility; •debate about migration as a viable adaptation strategy; •environmental displacement has the potential for triggering governance and security challenges
Health implications of forced displacement:
Food shortages, restricted access to food and acute malnutrition particularly high in children < 5 years in refugee camps
High level of micronutrient deficiency diseases in refugee camps (niacin, scorbutic -Vitamin C deficiency ) (UNHCR/WFP 2006)
Iron deficiency - 18-20% women of reproductive health are pregnant or breastfeeding
Spread of communicable diseases, including HIV and Influenza
Disruption of family and social structures, sexual violence and lack of access to health and reproductive services (gender issues)
Post-displacement stressors - Increase in the prevalence of psychosocial problems (McMichael, 2004)
Health implications of planned resettlement
Associated health problems include: food insecurity, unsafe water supply, inadequate sewage systems and increased infectious diseases and mental outcomes
Resettlement schemes typically related to adverse social outcomes: landless, jobless, homeless, social margination and food insecurity
Malnutrition due to the environmental, market and social conditions where previously people secured food differ from the new conditions
In Indigenous populations in North America and Australia resettlement has created cultural disruption, depression, alcoholism and dietary disorders
Health implications of urban migration • Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate change impacts on floods,
water shortages, droughts, land loss, livelihood loss etc. • Better access to food, health services, water and sanitation and
infrastructures
• Rural to urban migration to the periphery areas in LAC – slums or favelas - Migrants vulnerable to climate impacts in destination areas - particularly in urban centres:
Urban Heat Island effect Floods and mudslides
Migration as strategy for climate adaptation to health
• Help access improved livelihoods, health, food, sanitation services, and
infrastructures thus reducing their overall vulnerability.
• Key to avoid forced human mobility induced by climate change by supporting other adaptation strategies and ensuring support to displaced people.
• Human mobility needs to be integrated into national climate adaptation planning, to address key mobility challenges and to harness the potential of migration as an adaptation strategy.
• Health and loss and damage as a human rights and climate justice issue.
Events by type of climate related extreme weather event in LAC 2004-2013
Source: Tirado et al. 2015 with data from Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
Storm (tropical cyclone)
27%
Storm (convective)
15.6%
Storm (others or not informed)
2.2%
Storm (extra tropical cyclone)
0.3%
Drought 5%
Extreme temperature
5.8%
Flood 43.9%
87% floods/storms
Number of deaths by type of climate related
extreme weather event, LAC 2004-2013 Tirado et al. 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Num
ber o
f dea
ths
Years
Storm Flood Drought Extreme temperature
Extreme weather events, displacement and health risks and in the Caribbean
• foodborne diseases: diarrheal diseases salmonellosis and typhoid fever;
• waterborne diseases: cryptosporidiosis, schistosomiasis, and cholera;
• mal-nutrition resulting from impacts in food access or distribution – displaced populations and NCDs
• insect- and rodent- borne diseases, such as leptospirosis, dengue, malaria, and yellow fever;
• respiratory diseases: asthma, bronchitis, allergies and infections
• anxiety and stress
Tirado et al. 2015