climate and the economy - beauty and the beast
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast
Symposium on Climate Change and the EconomyGuy Dauncey, Duncan, March 2017
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The Beast = The Economy= Mechanistic, reductionist thinking
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The Prince = The New Economy= Holistic, systems thinking
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Beauty = Nature, Holocene Climate
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Homo Economicus
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Climate Change?
It’s all justhot air
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Huh?
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December 2016
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The last time the world was 3C warmer,the sea level was 25 metres higher.
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The Guardian, March 22, 2016
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Cowichan Estuary 0 metres sea-level rise
flood.firetree.net
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2 metres sea-level rise
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5 metres sea-level rise
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9 metres sea-level rise
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20 metres sea-level rise
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Vancouver 0 Metres Sea-Level Rise
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Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise
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Vancouver 5 Metres Sea-Level Rise
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Vancouver 9 Metres Sea-Level Rise
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Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise
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We must change our future story
from negative to positive,
from fear and worry
to hope and determination.
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The Economics of Self-Interest
Homo Economicus
$$$$
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Rational
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RationalSelf-interested
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gain
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalities
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!
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RationalSelf-interestedMaximizing capital gainIgnoring externalitiesProduce!Consume!Grow!REPEAT…..
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
GDP =GrossDepletion of the
Planet
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How to Kiss the Beast
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1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,
and seek solutions
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2. Tackle ecological ignorance. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,
every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in Ecology 101.
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3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
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4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification
by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
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4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
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5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
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6. Find ways to increase vegetarian diet, and reduce the local consumption of industrial meat and dairy
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7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,
50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
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8. Adopt a plan for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
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9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
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10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
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A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017
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1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis,
and seek solutions
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It will take everyone – non-profits, service clubs, schools, colleges,
businesses, banks, governments
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We need to organize togetherso that we can flourish in harmony with each other
and with Nature.
Unity in Diversity, Shared Purpose
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Environmental groups Food and gardening groups First Nations Youth groups Local government Local businessesSchools Churches Community groups Political organizations Chamber of Commerce Service clubs Regional District
Local college
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2. TACKLE ECOLOGICAL IGNORANCE. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020,
every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in
ECOLOGY 101
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Before Ecology 101
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After Ecology 101
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After Ecology 101
Candidates for School BoardsNew teachers, school board staff
Candidates for municipal electionsCandidates for provincial, federal elections
Candidates for non-profit leadershipUVic, Camosun, Royal Roads, North Island College
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3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
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Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome, Solar Age!
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GUSSING, AUSTRIAis ALREADY
100% RENEWABLE
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The City of COPENHAGENvoted to BECOME
100% CARBON NEUTRAL by 2025
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The City of OSLOvoted to REDUCE its GHGs
By 95% by 2030
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CITY OF FRANKFURTvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE by 2050
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CITY OF VANCOUVERvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050
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CITY OF VICTORIAvoted to go
100% RENEWABLE by 2050
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DISTRICT OF SAANICHjust voted to move toward100% RENEWABLE by 2050
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Might DUNCANvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
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Might NORTH COWICHANvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
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Might the CVRDvote to go
100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
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Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
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Transportation with 100% Renewable Energy
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www.tonystrailers.com
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Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.
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With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.
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Which do you prefer… THIS?
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Or THIS?
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Barcelona is moving ALL buses to100% electric by 2020
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So why not here too?Montreal – 100% electric buses by 2025
China – 40,000 new electric buses every year
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Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
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Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
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2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000www.motorizevictoria.ca
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The falling price of EV batteries
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By 2025, Holland is preparing to permit the sale of ONLY electric cars
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0 metres sea-level rise
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5 metres sea-level rise
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20 metres sea-level rise
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Building Heat with 100% Renewable Energy
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Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss
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Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are
required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
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4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification
by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
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Green Business Certification
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4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
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Benefit Corporations
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B Corporations Vancouver Island
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5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
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Organic yields match conventional yields.Outperform conventional in years of drought.Organic
farming uses 45% less energy.Produces 40% fewer greenhouse gases.Is more profitable than conventional
farming.Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.
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Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
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All organic farms protect their bees
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Local Food with 100% Renewable Energyplus added carbon storage!
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6. Find ways to eat more vegetarian, and reduce the consumption of industrial meat and dairy
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Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
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Who, - me?
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Me?
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100% Delicious Vegetarian Food
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7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020,
50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
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Global Deforestation
1.5 Gigatonnes of carbon a year
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Klanawa Valley, Vancouver Island TJ Watt
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Merv Wilkinson at Wildwood
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Second growth forest, needs thinning
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Wildwood Forest with added carbon storage
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8. Adopt a strategy for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
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The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
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The Economics of Kindness
Homo Economicus Homo Amicus
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
IndividualAgency
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
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The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
Publicwealth
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The Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
Ecological
Wealth
Trust
Future
Faith
in the
Cultural wealth
Communitywealth
Publicwealth
Privatewealth
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Green Space
Great Schools
Social Space
AffordableChildcare
Solar Energy
Community Wealth
A SharingEconomy
Urban Food
Work-sharing
Citizens Income
AffordableHousing
Free Post-Sec Education
Great Public Transport Bike Lanes
Social Business Social Banking
A CooperativeEconomy
A Circular Economy
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Kate RaworthOxfam Economist
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A CVRD Regional Sustainability Meeting in 2020
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9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
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10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
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A self-interested‘homo economicus’
economy
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A common good‘homo amicus’
economy
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A Vancouver Island Sustainability Gatheringin 2021
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A Roadmap for Rapid DecarbonizationScience, March 24 2017
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“A fabulous book … a sweeping vision”
– James Hansen, NASA
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“A joyous, hope-filled manual.”- Bill McKibben
350.org
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The Biggest Global Climate Solution You Have Never Heard Of
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WORLD FUTURE COUNCIL
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Chief EconomistWorld Future Council
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Massive acceleration to achieve 100% renewable energy needs an investment of
$1.5 to $2 trillion a year. $300 billion a year is needed in public grants.
Chief EconomistWorld Future Council
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“Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.”
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
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Established to keep the global temperature increase below 2°C by investing in
low-emission climate-resilient development.
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Advanced economies have agreed to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020,
but only $10 billion has been raised so far.
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Where does new money come from?
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A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
Where does new money come from?
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A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.
Where does new money come from?
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A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO.
B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of.
C. Is it created by Central Banks out of thin air, social trust? YES.
Where does new money come from?
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“The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.”
- John Kenneth Galbraith
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New money is not created out of thin air, but out of shared social trust.
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Public TRUST…
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Public TRUST…Allows money creation…
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Public TRUST…Allows money creation…Allows banking…
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The Bank of Gandalf can create money out of thin air because of social trust.
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Quantitative Easing
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Quantitative Easing for the Climate
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The World’s Central Banks
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Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
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Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
World’s Central Banks create
$300 billion a year to buy the bonds
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Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
World’s Central Banks create
$300 billion a year to buy the bonds
$300 billion a year
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Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract
private capital
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Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract
private capital
which invests $1.2 trillion a year
in renewable energy and climate solutions
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Not an inflationary riskGlobal economic output: $80 trillion a year
Global Central Banks Climate Stimulus$300 billion a year
0.375% monetary increase a year
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20 metres sea-level rise
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Collapse is Possible
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A Great Transition is Possible
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Climate and the Economy:Beauty and the Beast
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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“Brilliant!”- David Suzuki
“A tour-de-force”- Tzeporah Berman
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