climate basics
DESCRIPTION
Introduction to climate science basics and climate projections for New York State as presented to Marist summer institute class in July, 2013.TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Basics
Marist College Summer Institute
Libby Murphy
Hudson River Estuary Program/Cornell WRI
NYS Department of Environmental Conservation
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Outline• The Hudson River Estuary Program
• My background
• Basics of climate science
• Climate change in New York
• Climate mitigation
• Climate adaptation
• Field trip!
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Hudson River Estuary Program
Core Mission
• Ensure clean water
• Protect and restore fish, wildlife, and their
habitats
• Provide water recreation and river access
• Adapt to climate change
• Conserve world-famous scenery
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How I got here
• Hudson Valley native
• M.S. Climate Science and Policy, Bard College (2014)
• M.B.A. in Sustainability, Bard College (2014)
• B.A., Geology, Vassar College (2008)
• Compton Mentor Fellow
• Theodore Gordon Flyfisher Scholar
• Adolph Sutro Fellow
• Work in climate outreach, renewable energy start ups
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Basics of climate science
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What is climate?
“You dress for the weather and build a house for the climate”
“Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”
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The Earth’s Climate System
• Made up of 5 “spheres”
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How do we know?
• Greenland ice cores, detailed 800K year record of CO2
• Instrumental record since 1850
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Carbon Cycle Basics
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NASA
Difference between a planet with and one without a carbon cycle
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Rock reservoir 50 x 106 Gt*
Limestone 40 x 106
Organic carbon in sedimentary rocks 10 x 106
Fossil fuels 4.7 x 103
(coal = 4.0 x 103)
Marine carbonate sediments 2.5 x 103
World ocean 40 x 103
Dissolved inorganic carbon 39 x 103
Dissolved organic carbon 0.66 x 103
Organic carbon in soils and terrestrial sediments 1.6 x 103
Organic carbon in permafrost 0.9 x 103
Atmospheric CO2 0.73 x 103
Living biomass 0.66 x 103
*Gt = gigatons = 109 metric tons
Sizes of the
carbon
reservoirs
Sources: Kump et al., 2004; Zimov et al., 2006; others
long-term
short-term
The long- and short-term carbon cycles
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ocean
40,000 Gt C
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
101 Gt C/yr
97 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
atmosphere
730 Gt C
Short-term carbon cycle
The surface reservoirs
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Enter industrial revolution
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ocean
40,000 Gt C
118 Gt C/yr
121 Gt C/yr
101 Gt C/yr
97 Gt C/yr
living things
660 Gt C
soils/sediments
1600 Gt C
permafrost
900 Gt C
atmosphere
730 Gt C
fossil fuels
4700 Gt C
sedimentary rocks
50 million Gt C
8.0 Gt C/yr
Long-term cycle
deep reservoirsThe surface reservoirs
one-way flow from long- to short-term reservoirs
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The Keeling curve
Mauna Loa record
Keeling’s Curve
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The Greenhouse Effect
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A time of rapid Climate Change?
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We choose our future
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For more info
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Climate change in New York
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Changes to our climate
Increasing temperatures
•Rising sea level
•Changing precipitation patterns
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Increasing temperatures
Since 1970:
•Global annual average temp. up nearly 1°F
•US annual average temp. up 1.8°F
•New York annual average temp. up nearly 2°F
•New York winter temperatures up almost 5°F
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y = 0.026x - 1.346R² = 0.374
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Annual mean temperature in Poughkeepsie has been increasing
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Increasing temperatures
Future around Marist:
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Sea level riseHistoric:
• 15” in NY Harbor in the past 150 years
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Changing precipitation patterns
• 74% Increase in heavy downpours between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009
• More variability and volatility
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Annual rainfall in Poughkeepsie has become more variable
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So how will this affect us?
Heat waves
Short-term drought
Flooding
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Heat waves
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Short-term drought
• Higher temperatures, increased evaporation
• Reduction in steady rain and snow precipitation
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Flooding
• Intense precipitation
• Sea-level rise
• Intense storms
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What is the “100-year” flood?
• FEMA, FIRMs
• 1% probability = 100 yr
• 10% = 10 year
• Over 30 years there is a 30% chance of a 100-yr flood
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Sea Level Rise Mapper by Scenic Hudson
http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper
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Climate mitigation
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What is climate mitigation?
• Mitigation = reduce the severity of an issue/problem
• Climate mitigation = reduce the severity of climate change
• Reducing the causes of climate change
• Some definitions: efficient, renewable, low-impact, carbon-neutral, green buildings
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How?
• Energy/heat, transportation, buildings
• Renewable energy, efficient transportation, green buildings
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Climate adaptation
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What is climate adaptation?
• Adaptation= to adapt to new conditions
• Climate adaptation= to adapt to the impacts of climate change
• Reducing the impacts of climate change
• Some definitions: resilience, accommodate, fortify, retreat
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Resilience
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Flooding adaptation
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Current situation
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Flooding Adaptation Strategies•Fortify
•Accommodate
•Strategically Relocate
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Fortify
Levee, New Orleans, LA Seawall, Beacon, NY
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Elevated structures with flood
gates, Hamburg, Germany
Accommodate
Floodable park concept, NYC
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Steelhouse restaurant, Kingston, NY
Local example of accommodation
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Strategic Relocation
Natural shoreline with gazebo, Cold
SpringWetland with walkway
concept, Toronto, Canada
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Simulations
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Kingston waterfront low tide
E Strand in Kingston
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Kingston waterfrontSimulation: elevated sea level (4’) at low tide
4’ of Sea Level Rise
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Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), armored protection
Example of Fortify
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Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), vegetated revetment, floodproofed buildings
Example of Accommodate
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Kingston waterfront Simulation: elevated sea level (low tide), strategic retreat
Example of Strategic Relocation