climate briefing september 17, 2009 recent climate variability & impacts (what i did on my...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Briefing
September 17, 2009
• Recent climate variability & impacts (What I did on my summer vacation)
• Forecasting West Africa seasonal rainfall
• Latest ENSO conditions and forecasts
• Latest IRI global seasonal forecasts
Photo Credit: Cornell University
T1R9, Maine
Located inPiscataquis County
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There were 843 people – total – living full time in the more than 50 unnamed townships in Piscataquis county in 2004.
That’s a cozy averagepopulation of about 17 Humans per township.
The average moosedensity is about 18Moose/township...
View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a SUNNY summer day
June 2009 – 14 consecutive days
“Visit #1” “Visit #2”
Rain
No Rain
Millinocket, Maine Days with > 0.25mm PRCP
:- ( :- )
From: Bangor Daily News 7/2/09
June 2009 TEMP July 2009 TEMP
June 2009 PRCP July 2009 PRCP
June & July 2009 250hPa Height Anom (TOP), SST Anom (BOT.)
http://vegetablemdonline.ppath.cornell.edu/NewsArticles/LateBlightJune09.html
Late Blight… in NY
Late Blight… in NY
http://www.longislandhort.cornell.edu/vegpath/photos/lateblight_tomato.htm
Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
http://www.hort.cornell.edu/department/Facilities/lihrec/vegpath/photos/lateblight_potato.htm
Late Blight can also affect soils and tuber development
Photo Credit: Cornell University
Phytophthora infestans is an oomycete or water mold that causes the serious potato disease known as late blight or potato blight. It was a major culprit in the 1845 Irish and 1846 Highland potato famines. The organism can also infect tomatoes and some other members of the Solanaceae.
Tmax 62°-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mm
Tmin > 50° F RH > 75%
From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin:
Meteorological Conditions Favorablefor Phytophthora infestans
Note: An infestation in the previous year also increases the probability of an outbreak in year “t+1” (often used as a predictor in models).
The “potato famine” in Ireland began in 1845 (⅓ to ½ of total crop lost); in 1846 crop lost estimated at > ¾.
The lower crop yields resulted in fewer seed potatoes available in subsequent years.
Many other forecast models in use: Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, etc.
Millinocket, Maine Days Optimal for “Late Blight”
(Phytophthora infestans)
Tmax 62-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mmTmin > 50° F RH* > 75%
From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin
View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a sunny SEPTEMBER day
BTW:In 2003 Piscataquis County (home of T1R9) produced 80% of the world’s wooden golf tees...
The End