climate change adaptation: an australian perspectiveunderstanding vulnerability eg. increased...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective
Professor Tim Smith Director, Sustainability Research Centre
NZCCRI Seminar Series, Victoria University of Wellington, 13 December 2011
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Inter-generational equity
Intra-generational equity
Poverty
Biodiversity
Waste
Consumption
Globalisation
Pollution
Water
Population
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“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it”
Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands, Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).
Antoine De Saint-Exupery
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• Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakes
leading to changes in:
– The science-policy-community interface
– Research approaches
Context for climate change adaptation
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Climate change: what we know
• Hotter
• Sea level rise
• More extreme events:
– More intense storms
– More intense floods
– More intense storm surge
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Australia is a coastal nation
• 85% of Australia’s population reside within 50km of the coastline
• up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.1m*
* Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report
Is it really that bad?
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Sea level rise is relatively easy ... it’s the extreme events that are the major worry!
Is it really that bad?
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Some examples of different outcomes
North Queensland versus South East Queensland
Fatalities:
• North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1
• South East Queensland (floods) = >20
• Brazil (floods) = >700
Japan versus Indonesia
Fatalities:
• Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000
• Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000
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Understanding vulnerability
Eg. increased temperature Eg. elderly
Eg. social networks
Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001
Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White, K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Past science focus
exposure sensitivity
Adaptive capacity Potential harm
Vulnerability
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From planning to implementation
Climate adaptation strategy
Effective Implementation
Adaptive Capacity
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Adaptive capacity
• Refers to what is needed to adapt:
– Access to resources
– Education
– Social networks
Responding to climate change is a social process
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Evolution of adaptive capacity thinking
Daffara, P., Keys, N. and Smith, T. F. 2009, Critical Review of Adaptive Capacity Literature, Report prepared for the National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Brisbane.
Daffara et al., 2009
Dominance of biophysical assessments of climate change
Recognition of the importance of adaptive capacity
Focus on searching for generic determinants of adaptive capacity
Recognition of the importance of context
Recognition of the need for case studies of adaptive capacity determinants
Emerging discourse of the relationships between adaptive capacity determinants
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Conceptual model of adaptive capacity
Daffara et al., 2009
Generic determinants of
adaptive capacity
Context-specific determinants
of adaptive capacity
External influences on
adaptive capacity
•Environmental change
•Socio-economic change
•May have positive or
negative influences
depending on the context
•Often assumed
•Relationships not explored
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Drivers of climate change impacts
Climate change drivers:
• Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature
Other drivers:
• Population movements (eg. migration)
• Population characteristics (eg. education)
• Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds)
• Legislative and policy frameworks
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Coastal Population Growth Projections
Australian sea change regions (local government area, State)
Projected population change (2002 to 2022)
Projected population in 2022
Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase 450,000
Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase 30,572
Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase 17,365
Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase 16,513
Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008
Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) “Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities”, In Wallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008,
April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.
Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population and housing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.
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Population at risk in South East Queensland
Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event:
• Current risk
270 000 people (10% of current population)
• Risk in 2030 without population growth
378 000 people
• Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60%
616 000 people
This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIRO‟s Climate Adaptation Flagship, based on research in the „South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative‟, analysis of readily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of the issues covered.
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Illustration of how adaptation can expand the coping range of an activity/sector/species and therefore expand the coping range and reduce vulnerability to climate change
Jones & Mearns 2005
Vulnerability-based Risk Assessment of Climate Change
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Resilience framework eg. ability to re-organise and renew
Vulnerability framework eg. reducing harm
Sustainability framework eg. inter-generational equity
Adaptation discourses
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Evolution of climate change science
Perf
orm
ance
Time
Climate change science (1st Curve) Mono-disciplinarity
Adaptation science (2nd Curve) Trans-disciplinarity
Next shift (3rd Curve) – Resilience science? Holism?
A
B
C
Daffara et al., 2009
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Adaptation pathways
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Characteristics of Resource Dilemmas
SLIM, 2002
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SLIM, 2004
Alternative models of knowledge construction
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Post-normal science
• Recognition of uncertainty
• Value-laden
• Participatory
Kuhn, 1962; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991; Ravetz, 1999
Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R. 1991, „A new scientific methodology for global environmental issues‟, In Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and
Management of Sustainability, pp. 137-152. Columbia University Press, New York.
Ravetz, J. R. 1999, „What is post-normal science?‟, Futures, 31, pp. 647-653.
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Post-normal science
Smith 2009 after Ravetz, 2006
Post-normal
science
Decision
stakes
Professional
consultancy
Uncertainty
Applied
science
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Responding to sustainability
• The compass
• The gyroscope
• social learning
Kai Lee 1993; Milbrath 1989; Smith & Lazarow 2007 Lee, K. 1993, The Compass and the Gyroscope, Island Press, Washington DC.
Milbrath, L. W. 1989, Sustainable Society: Learning Our Way Out, SUNY University Press, New York.
Smith, T. F. and Lazarow, N. S. 2007, „Social Learning and the Adaptive Management Framework‟, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 39.
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What is being done?
1. Australian Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency
2. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
3. The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
4. Australian Research Council
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1. Sydney climate change adaptation initiative (Dept of Climate Change)
2. Coastal Adaptation Pathways Program, Multi-criteria analysis for coastal adaptation decision-making (Dept of Climate Change)
3. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
a) Partner in the Facility
b) Lead the Communities Theme of the Marine Biodiversity & Resources Network
c) Part of the Socio-economic and Institutional Network
d) Co-authored National Adaptation Research Plan for Human Settlements
e) Synthesis project: Nature and Utility of Adaptive Capacity Research
4. Australian Research Council Discovery project: Household vulnerability index (Griffith, USC, Flinders)
5. CSIRO Coastal Collaboration Cluster (7 universities, $10m over 3 years)
6. SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (CSIRO, Griffith, USC, UQ; funded by CSIRO Collaboration Fund, DCC, Qld govt, $14m over 3 years)
Examples of climate change projects
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Sydney Climate Change Adaptation Initiative
Aim:
To develop and trial a method for a systems approach to regional climate change adaptation strategies in large urban areas
Researchers:
Tim Smith, Ben Preston, Cassandra Brooke, Russell
Gorddard, Tom Measham, Geoff Withycombe, Beth
Beveridge, Debbie Abbs, Kathy McInnes, and Craig
Morrison
“Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change
Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises”
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• To study these systems we need to look at:
– Drivers of change
– Relays of change
– Impacts on sustainability
– Management responses
An integrated approach
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Systems approaches
• From disciplinary to trans-disciplinary
• From reductionist to whole of ecosystem science
• Ways of looking at the whole rather than the parts
– A language for systemic rather than linear thinking
– Building shared understanding of the system
Acknowledgement to Russell Gorddard (CSIRO) for some of the following slides
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Identifying key interventions
Adapted from Godet, 1994
Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: A handbook of strategic prospecting. UNESCO Publishing.
influence
dependence
drivers relays
impacts
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Relative vulnerability mapping
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System conceptualisation
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System conceptualisation
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Horrendagram
Rainfall
Heat
Storm Surge
Storm Water
Management
Open Space
ManagementCoastline
Management
Natural Areas
Management
DevelopmentControl
Urban Planning
Health Plan
Transport System
PlanWaste
Management
Pollution Control
Emergancy
Management
Communcation
Plan
Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social
Plan
Weed
Management
Water Conservation
Management
Infrastructure
Planning
Financial Plan
Data Collection
Carbon Plan
Economic
Prosperity
Legislation Frame
Work
Lobbying
Funding / Grants
Bushland
Management
Neighboring
Councils
State
Govenment
Policy
Sea Level
Rise
Drought
Population
Political Will
Topography
Foreshore
Damage
Community
Evacuation
Disease /
Health Impacts
Acid Sulphate
Soils
Sewage Ecosysems
Flooding
Infrastructure
Financial Impacts
Housing
Amenity
Social Breakdown
Vulnerable
Communities
Community
Behavior
Strategic Plan
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System conceptualisation
Infrastructure
Amenity Economic Prosperity
Financial Impacts
Flooding
Community Evacuation
(Economic Prosperity)
Housing
(Infrastructure)
Social Breakdown
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System conceptualisation
In fras t ru ctu re
F lo o d in g
C o m m u n i ty B eh av io r
(In fras t ru ctu re)
N eig h b o rin g C o u n ci l s
R ain fal l
S ea L ev el R i s e
S t at e G o v en m en t P o l i cy
S to rm S u rg e
T o p o g rap h y
F u n d in g / G ran t s(S t at e G o v en m en t P o l i cy )
(S t rat eg i c P l an )
H eat
P o p u lat i o n(S t ate G o v en m en t P o l i cy )
S to rm W ater M an ag em en t
D ev elo p m en t C o n t ro l
E m erg an cy M an ag em en t
(R ain fal l )
S t rat eg i c P lan
B u s h l an d M an ag em en t
C o as t l i n e M an ag em en t
D ata C o l l ect io n
F in an ci al P l an
H eal t h P l an
In fras t ru ctu re P l an n in g
N at u ral A reas M an ag em en t
(N eig h b o rin g C o u n ci l s )
P o l i t i cal W i l l
(P o p u l at i o n )
(S tat e G o v en m en t P o l i cy )
T ran s p o rt S y s t em P l an
U rb an P l an n in g
W as t e M an ag em en t
W eed M an ag em en t
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Priority issues
Rainfall
Heat
Storm Surge
Storm Water
Management
Open Space
ManagementCoastline
Management
Natural Areas
Management
DevelopmentControl
Urban Planning
Health Plan
Transport System
PlanWaste
Management
Pollution Control
Emergancy
Management
Communcation
Plan
Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social
Plan
Weed
Management
Water Conservation
Management
Infrastructure
Planning
Financial Plan
Data Collection
Carbon Plan
Economic
Prosperity
Legislation Frame
Work
Lobbying
Funding / Grants
Bushland
Management
Neighboring
Councils
State
Govenment
Policy
Sea Level
Rise
Drought
Population
Political Will
Topography
Foreshore
Damage
Community
Evacuation
Disease /
Health Impacts
Acid Sulphate
Soils
Sewage Ecosysems
Flooding
Infrastructure
Financial Impacts
Housing
Amenity
Social Breakdown
Vulnerable
Communities
Community
Behavior
Strategic Plan
Development Control
Infrastructure
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Barriers and opportunities Issue: Infrastructure Potential impact: (very low – low – medium – high – very high) Capacity to manage: (very low – low – medium – high – very high) Barriers Opportunities
Aging infrastructure
$$ high cost of maintenance and low capacity
to fund new infrastructure
No standards re capacity required
Restricted space and scope to increase
capacity / Brownfield
Political cutting back S94 funds
Uncertainty of science – planning for future
needs
Topography
Some infrastructure would have adverse
impacts on the City
Forced reliance on other infrastructure
provides for institutional barriers, competing
interests, legislative inconsistencies
Good cross-unit linkages internally
New development brings funding opportunities
and opportunities to ensure climate change
needs are met (S94)
Improved Technology, design, higher
standards
Good frame works for funding and gaining new
infrastructure (legislation)
Share information with other organisation and
councils
Innovative thinking
New technology to improve environmental
outcomes e.g. Stormwater reuse
Proximity to public transport though fare to City
Special Levy (to ensure climate change needs
are met) and storm water levy
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Barrier Number of times cited
Community 33
Infrastructure 31
Planning 29
Water 23
Funds / funding 21
Development 17
State 15
Council 12
Political 11
Transport 10
Government 9
Knowledge 8
Flooding 5
Regional barriers
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Case study results
• Climate change adaptation is an emerging issue (focus on mitigation)
• Climate change was usually the responsibility of environmental divisions within local government
• The role of local government in addressing climate change is poorly defined
• Climate change is mostly ignored in the process of regulating development
• There is little understanding within councils about the level of vulnerability to climate change impacts
• There is an absence of systematic monitoring and evaluation
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Actions to build adaptive capacity Stream Name Description of Covered Actions
“Know Your Enemy”
Enhancing understanding regarding existing and future climate hazards and social and ecological vulnerability
“Plan for Change”
Incorporating climate change into existing and novel Local Government planning frameworks
“Get Smart”
Implementing education and outreach programs to increase the knowledge of Council and the broader community with respect to climate change, vulnerability and adaptation
“Act, Watch and Learn”
Implementing monitoring, evaluation and reporting measures for Local Government to track outcomes with respect to policies and measures associated with climate adaptation
“Put the House in Order”
Developing both internal and external institutional arrangements that build adaptive capacity within and across Councils and other levels of government
“Money Talks”
Enhancing revenue streams to Councils to assist in financing adaptation and cost-sharing mechanisms to spread the burden among multiple tiers of government
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SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative
AU$14 m initiative over 3 years
• The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship
• The Queensland State Government
• The Australian Government Department of Climate Change
• Griffith University
• The University of the Sunshine Coast
• The University of Queensland
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SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative
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From planning to implementation
Climate adaptation strategy
Effective Implementation
Adaptive Capacity
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Building adaptive capacity in SEQ
1. Identifying relevant socio-economic patterns and trends
2. Historical analysis of adaptation
3. System conceptualisation – identifying the perceived and likely vulnerabilities of each sector
4. Identifying the key attributes of adaptive capacity
5. Designing cost effective strategies to enhance adaptive capacity that include institutionalised monitoring, evaluation and learning
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1. Socio-economic trends
• Population grew significantly (19%) between 1996 and 2006 Trends set to continue (57% projected increase to 2031)
• The growing population, in particular increasing densities in high risk coastal urban areas, is a cause for concern for climate change adaptation
• Projections also show a doubling of lone person households and an increase of at least 60% for one parent family households across the region
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2. Historical Analysis of Adaptive Capacity
• 9 determinants of adaptive capacity across 33 cases
* Complexity * Values * Imagination
* Leadership * Technology * Information
* Institutions * Knowledge * Scale
• These determinants play out in unique ways according to context
• Interventions in the personal, technological, social and cultural domains are required for a whole of system response to climate change
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3. System conceptualisation
Rainfall
Heat
Storm Surge
Storm Water
Management
Open Space
ManagementCoastline
Management
Natural Areas
Management
DevelopmentControl
Urban Planning
Health Plan
Transport System
PlanWaste
Management
Pollution Control
Emergancy
Management
Communcation
Plan
Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social
Plan
Weed
Management
Water Conservation
Management
Infrastructure
Planning
Financial Plan
Data Collection
Carbon Plan
Economic
Prosperity
Legislation Frame
Work
Lobbying
Funding / Grants
Bushland
Management
Neighboring
Councils
State
Govenment
Policy
Sea Level
Rise
Drought
Population
Political Will
Topography
Foreshore
Damage
Community
Evacuation
Disease /
Health Impacts
Acid Sulphate
Soils
Sewage Ecosysems
Flooding
Infrastructure
Financial Impacts
Housing
Amenity
Social Breakdown
Vulnerable
Communities
Community
Behavior
Strategic Plan
Community Resilience and Capacity
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Community
Resilience &
Capacity
Mitigation
Planning &
Preparedness
Response
Capacity
Recovery
Capacity
Aware-
Prepared
Community
Apathy
(motivation)
Adequacy of
Resources
Infrastructure
(coping)
Socio-
Economic
Status
Community
Support
Networks
4. Determinants of adaptive capacity (BBN)
60% 20% 20%
80% 20% 50% 50% 50% 50%
•Self-Recovery
•Aided-Recovery
•Proactive
•Reactive
•Manageable
•Overwhelming
•Independent
•Dependent
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Conditional Probability Table
Mitigation Planning &
Preparedness
Response Capacity Recovery
Capacity
Community Resilience & Capacity
SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY
PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT
PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT
PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT
PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT
REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT
REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT
REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT
REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT
Mitigation Planning &
Preparedness
Response Capacity Recovery
Capacity
Community Resilience & Capacity
SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY
PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 85% 15%
PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 70% 30%
PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 80% 20%
PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 70% 30%
REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 80% 20%
REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 60% 40%
REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 60% 40%
REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 50% 50%
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Competing mandates
• Australia: Largest coal exporter in the world (35% of market share=$50bn)
• Coal not exported is primarily used for domestic energy supply
• Focus on (short-term) economic growth
How can institutions for sustainability compete?
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Institutional complexity Wet Tropics World
Heritage Area
Freehold Land
Provincial
Boundary
Grazing Land,
leasehold
Regional Coastal
Management Plan
Source: Jenny Bellamy
Environmentally
Relevant Activity: EPA
Major Rock Wall
Voluntary Conservation
Agreement
Wetland: Code of Practice
for sustainable Cane
Growing
Declared Fish Habitat
Area
Fish Habitat
Code of Practice
Works in tidally
affected areas
Bed/banks River
Marine Plants
Recreation Area
Management Act
Coastal Control
District
Wetland
Voluntary Conservation
Agreement
Sugar Cane: Sugar
Industry Act
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Nested adaptation
Adaptation
Conservation agendas
Development agendas
Economic growth agendas
International agendas
Equity agendas
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Key questions for scoping the future
• What future/s do we want?
• How do we achieve it? – back casting
• Where are we heading? – current trajectories
• How should we be responding?
• How can we learn to alter and monitor our trajectories?
Adaptation goals
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Adaptive capacity complicaters Biological mind
Biased to:
Disconnection
Proximity
Simplicity
Certainty
Discrepancy
Worldview mind
Biased to:
Atomism
Mechanism
Anthropocentrism
Rationalism
Individualism
Contemporary mind
Biased to:
Efficiency
Growth
Secularism
Narcissism
Techno-optimism
Psychodynamic mind
Biased to:
Repression
Denial
Projection
Rationalisation
Insulation
The unsustainable mind
Gladwin, T., Newburry, W. and Reiskin, E. 1997, „Why is the Northern Elite Mind Biased Against Community, the Environment and a Sustainable Future?‟, In: Bazerman, M., Messick, D., Tenbrunsel, A. and Wade-Benzoni, K. (eds) Environment, Ethics and Behaviour, The New Lexington Press, San Francisco, pp. 234-274.
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Learning
Biggs, J. 1999, Teaching for Quality Learning at University, Society for Research into
Higher Education & Open University Press, Buckingham.
Higher order learning
Lower order learning
theorising
conceptualising
recognising
memorising
reflecting
applying
note-taking
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Contextual Learning Framework Learning type Learning process Learner outcomes System outcomes
Prestructural Not specified Misses point No outcome
Unistructural One-way information transfer
Identifies
Follows
procedure
Information distribution
Multistructural Multi-way information transfer
Enumerates
Describes
Combines
Describes system
Systems thinking Transformative information
Compares and
contrasts
Explains causes
Analyses
Relates
Applies
Improves knowledge of system
Extended systems thinking
Transformative knowledge
Theorises
Hypothesises
Reflects
Improves system
Smith & Thomsen 2006 Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. 2006, „Institutionalising Adaptive Learning For Coastal Management‟, in
Lazarow, N., Souter, R., Fearon, R. and Dovers, S. (eds.) 2006, Coastal Management in Australia: Key institutional and governance issues for coastal natural resource management and planning, CRC for
Coastal Zone, Estuary and Waterway Management, Brisbane, pp. 115-120.
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Enhancing sustainability
Futures focus
Proactive learning
Today focus
Reactive learning
Post-normal science
Systems thinking
Normal science
Reductionist science
Transforming data to information to knowledge to impact to wisdom
Transition
Enhancing sustainability
Inte
gra
tio
n
Smith, T. F. 2009
A neo-research approach to enhance climate change adaptation, In Martin, J. (ed.) Climate Change Responses across Regional Australia: Social Learning and Adaptation. VURRN Press, Victoria
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Enhancing adaptive capacity
• Focus often on:
– measuring and predicting biophyscial changes
– Developing new technologies
• Meaningless without understanding and enhancing adaptive capacity