Climate Change Adaptation and Ecosystems: scientific challenges and opportunities

Robert T. WatsonRobert T. WatsonChief Scientific Advisor at DefraChief Scientific Advisor at Defra

Strategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEAStrategic Director of the Tyndall Centre, UEA

Natural England and British Ecological SocietyNatural England and British Ecological Society

11 January 2011 11 January 2011

Loss of biodiversity, ecosystem degradation and climate change

• Loss of biodiversity, ecosystem degradation and climate change are environment, development and security issues, i.e., they undermine:

• food, water and human security• the economy (loss of natural capital)• poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor• human health• personal, national and regional security

• Biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation and climate change are inter- and intra-generational equity issues:

• developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerable

• the actions of today will affect future generations

Drivers of Biodiversity Loss

Biodiversity Loss

HabitatHabitatChangeChange

ClimateClimateChangeChange

InvasiveInvasiveSpeciesSpecies

OverOver--exploitationexploitation

NutrientsNutrients& pollution& pollution

EconomicEconomicDemoDemo--graphicgraphic

SocioSocio--politicalpolitical

Cultural &Cultural &religiousreligious

Science &Science &TechnologyTechnology

Indirect driversIndirect drivers

Direct driversDirect drivers

Drivers of biodiversity loss growingDrivers of biodiversity loss growing

UK Biodiversity UK Biodiversity –– Drivers of Change   Drivers of Change   

•• LandLand--use change & use change & pollution are the major pollution are the major drivers of change.drivers of change.

•• Exploitation has a Exploitation has a significant impact in significant impact in marine ecosystems.marine ecosystems.

•• Emerging evidence of Emerging evidence of climate change impacts climate change impacts across most groups.across most groups.

•• Impact invasive spp Impact invasive spp less important for the less important for the majority groups.majority groups.

Surface TemperatureSurface Temperature

Precipitation

Regional variations (2080, medium emissions)Even central estimates of changes to average summer temperature Even central estimates of changes to average summer temperature are significant:are significant:Maps show a gradient between parts of southern of England, whereMaps show a gradient between parts of southern of England, where they can be 5they can be 5ººC or C or

more, and northern Scotland, where they can be somewhat less thamore, and northern Scotland, where they can be somewhat less than 3n 3ººC. C.

Change Change relative to relative to 19611961--1990 1990 averageaverage

Maps are Maps are of of probability probability not not ‘‘forecastsforecasts’’

The The central estimate central estimate of changes in of changes in annual mean precipitation are annual mean precipitation are within a few percent of zero within a few percent of zero everywhere. everywhere.

In winter, precipitation increases In winter, precipitation increases are in the range +10% to +30% are in the range +10% to +30% over the majority of the country. over the majority of the country. Increases are smaller than this in Increases are smaller than this in some parts of the country, some parts of the country, generally on higher ground. generally on higher ground.

In summer, there is a general In summer, there is a general south to north gradient, from south to north gradient, from decreases of almost 40% in SW decreases of almost 40% in SW England to almost no change in England to almost no change in Shetland. Shetland.

Changes to annual, winter and summer mean precipitation (medium emissions, 2080s)

Change relative to 1961Change relative to 1961--1990 average1990 averageMaps are of probability not Maps are of probability not ‘‘forecastsforecasts’’

Biodiversity and climate change are inextricably linked

Biodiversity and associated ecosystem Biodiversity and associated ecosystem services are impacted by climate change services are impacted by climate change

Biodiversity can help people adapt to Biodiversity can help people adapt to climate changeclimate change

Biodiversity can help people mitigate Biodiversity can help people mitigate climate changeclimate change

Changes in climate exert an additional pressure and have already affected biodiversity

the timing of reproduction or migration eventsthe timing of reproduction or migration events

the length of the growing seasonthe length of the growing season

species distributions and population sizesspecies distributions and population sizes

the frequency of pest and disease outbreaksthe frequency of pest and disease outbreaks

increased incidence of coral bleaching and mortality increased incidence of coral bleaching and mortality --increases in temperature, sea level and acidification increases in temperature, sea level and acidification

Climate change is projected to affect all aspects of biodiversity, i.e., individuals, populations, species

distributions and ecosystem composition and function

directly, directly, for example through increases in for example through increases in temperature, changes in precipitation (and in the case temperature, changes in precipitation (and in the case of marine systems changes in sea level etc) of marine systems changes in sea level etc)

indirectly, indirectly, for example through climate changing the for example through climate changing the intensity and frequency of disturbances such as intensity and frequency of disturbances such as wildfires)wildfires)

Climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems are unavoidable

•• An increasing number of ecosystems, including areas of high biodAn increasing number of ecosystems, including areas of high biodiversity, are likely iversity, are likely to be further disrupted by a temperature rise of 2to be further disrupted by a temperature rise of 2°°C or more above preC or more above pre--industrial industrial levels.levels.

•• Ecosystems that may be most threatened by climate change includeEcosystems that may be most threatened by climate change include coral reefs, coral reefs, mangroves and other coastal wetlands, remnant ecosystems, some emangroves and other coastal wetlands, remnant ecosystems, some ecosystems with cosystems with restricted distribution and high latitude/high altitude ecosysterestricted distribution and high latitude/high altitude ecosystems.ms.

•• The risk of extinction will increase for many species, especiallThe risk of extinction will increase for many species, especially those that are already y those that are already at risk due to factors such as low population numbers, restricteat risk due to factors such as low population numbers, restricted or patchy habitats, d or patchy habitats, and limited climatic ranges.and limited climatic ranges.

•• 10 per cent of species will face an increasingly high risk of ex10 per cent of species will face an increasingly high risk of extinction for every 1tinction for every 1°°C C rise in global mean surface temperature (up to an increase of abrise in global mean surface temperature (up to an increase of about 5out 5°°C).C).

Minimising the impacts of climate change on biodiversity

How can we facilitate the natural How can we facilitate the natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate adaptation of ecosystems to climate change?change?How will our conservation priorities need How will our conservation priorities need to change?to change?What is the role of What is the role of interventions such as interventions such as species relocations, species relocations, gene banks, gene banks, captive breeding captive breeding programs etc?programs etc?

Impacts of climate mitigation actions on biodiversity

Maintaining natural and restoring degraded Maintaining natural and restoring degraded ecosystems, and limiting humanecosystems, and limiting human--induced climate induced climate change, can result in multiple benefits for both change, can result in multiple benefits for both the Climate Change and Biodiversity Conventions the Climate Change and Biodiversity Conventions ---- if mechanisms to do so are designed and if mechanisms to do so are designed and managed appropriatelymanaged appropriately

Take action at multiple levels• Address underlying drivers

• excessive consumption• population growth

Incentive measuresCommunication, Education and Public AwarenessAction by all sectors of government & society

• Decouple pressures from drivers:• Smarter planning at land and sea• Technical Innovation

• Address multiple pressures and drivers• Well sited protected areas to protect

critical species, habitats and ecosystem services

• Maximize contribution of biodiversity to climate change mitigation and adaptation; ecosystem restoration

Pressures

Drivers

State ofBiodiversity

RESPONSESImpacts on

EcosystemServices &

Human Well-being

Impacts of climate adaptation actions on biodiversity

Human activities to adapt to climate Human activities to adapt to climate change can lead to actions harmful change can lead to actions harmful to biodiversity and ecosystem to biodiversity and ecosystem servicesservices•• More intensive agricultural practicesMore intensive agricultural practices•• New crops and livestock & pest New crops and livestock & pest

management actionsmanagement actions•• More intensive management of waterMore intensive management of water•• Physical coastal and flood protection Physical coastal and flood protection

CBD AHTEG report provides a rich CBD AHTEG report provides a rich set of examples and possible set of examples and possible responses responses

Ecosystem-based Adaptation

EBA is the use of sustainable ecosystem EBA is the use of sustainable ecosystem management to support human management to support human adaptation to climate changeadaptation to climate change

It can ...It can ...•• Be applied at regional, national and local Be applied at regional, national and local

scalesscales•• Be cost effectiveBe cost effective•• Be more accessible to many poor and/or rural Be more accessible to many poor and/or rural

communities than communities than ““hard engineeringhard engineering”” actionsactions

Ecosystem-based Adaptation

EBA should be integrated into an overall adaptation EBA should be integrated into an overall adaptation strategy and a broader sustainable development strategy and a broader sustainable development

strategystrategy

Sustainable Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

Social Social adaptationadaptation

Physical Physical adaptationadaptation

Ecosystem-based adaptation and co-benefits

Multiple social and economic Multiple social and economic benefits that go beyond benefits that go beyond adaptation to climate changeadaptation to climate change•• Multiple benefits of a retained Multiple benefits of a retained

forestforest

Contribute to conservation Contribute to conservation and biodiversity benefitsand biodiversity benefits•• ““SoftSoft”” coastal protection coastal protection

compared with sea wallscompared with sea walls

Contribute to mitigationContribute to mitigation•• Maintain or enhance carbon Maintain or enhance carbon

stocks stocks

Examples of ecosystemExamples of ecosystem--based adaptation activities include:based adaptation activities include:

•• Coastal defence through the maintenance and/or restoration of Coastal defence through the maintenance and/or restoration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands to reduce coastal flooding mangroves and other coastal wetlands to reduce coastal flooding and coastal erosion.and coastal erosion.

•• Sustainable management of upland wetlands and floodplains for Sustainable management of upland wetlands and floodplains for maintenance of water flow and quality.maintenance of water flow and quality.

•• Conservation and restoration of forests to stabilize land slopesConservation and restoration of forests to stabilize land slopes and and regulate water flows.regulate water flows.

•• Establishment of diverse agroforestry systems to cope with Establishment of diverse agroforestry systems to cope with increased risk from changed climatic conditions.increased risk from changed climatic conditions.

•• Conservation of agrobiodiversity to provide specific gene pools Conservation of agrobiodiversity to provide specific gene pools for for crop and livestock adaptation to climate change.crop and livestock adaptation to climate change.

EcosystemEcosystem--basedbased Adaptation

Ecosystem-based Adaptation is not without complexity and risk

EBA may require giving priority to particular EBA may require giving priority to particular ecosystem services at the expense of othersecosystem services at the expense of others•• e.g. Maximising silt loading and accumulation in coastal e.g. Maximising silt loading and accumulation in coastal

wetlands at the expense of recreational usewetlands at the expense of recreational use•• Slope stabilization with shrubs may lead to wild fires and Slope stabilization with shrubs may lead to wild fires and

catastrophic slope destabilizationcatastrophic slope destabilization

Thus, as with all adaptation, Thus, as with all adaptation, must balance the risks and must balance the risks and be prepared to adjust the be prepared to adjust the approach approach

Ecosystem based mitigationA portfolio of land use management activities can A portfolio of land use management activities can contribute to the objectives of the UNFCCC, UNCCD and contribute to the objectives of the UNFCCC, UNCCD and CBD. Activities including:CBD. Activities including:

•• protection of natural forest (e.g., reduced deforestation protection of natural forest (e.g., reduced deforestation and degradation) and peatland carbon stocks,and degradation) and peatland carbon stocks,

•• sustainable management of forests, sustainable management of forests,

•• use of native assemblages of forest species in use of native assemblages of forest species in reforestation activities, reforestation activities,

•• sustainable wetland management and restoration of sustainable wetland management and restoration of degraded wetlands; anddegraded wetlands; and

•• sustainable agricultural practicessustainable agricultural practices

Change the economic background to decision-making to implement ecosystem-based activities

•• Make sure the value of all ecosystem services, not just those Make sure the value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when bought and sold in the market, are taken into account when making decisionsmaking decisions

•• Remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energyRemove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy

•• Payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in Payments to landowners in return for managing their lands in ways that protect and enhance ecosystem servicesways that protect and enhance ecosystem services

•• Appropriate pricing policies for natural resources, e.g., waterAppropriate pricing policies for natural resources, e.g., water

•• Apply fees, taxes, levees and tariffs to discourage activities tApply fees, taxes, levees and tariffs to discourage activities that hat degrade biodiversity and ecosystem servicesdegrade biodiversity and ecosystem services

•• Establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and Establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most costcarbon emissions in the most cost--effective wayeffective way

Non-financial incentives to implement ecosystem-based activities

Laws and regulationsLaws and regulations

Promote individual and community property or land rightsPromote individual and community property or land rights

Improve access rights and restrictionsImprove access rights and restrictions

New governance structures to improve policy, planning, and New governance structures to improve policy, planning, and managementmanagement•• Integrate decisionIntegrate decision--making between different departments and making between different departments and

sectors, as well as international institutionssectors, as well as international institutions•• Include sound management of ecosystem services in all Include sound management of ecosystem services in all

planning decisions planning decisions

Develop and use environmentDevelop and use environment--friendly technologiesfriendly technologies

Influence individual behaviorInfluence individual behavior

Food Production–– Uneven benefits:Uneven benefits:

•• One billion people One billion people still hungry still hungry

•• Hunger has increased Hunger has increased in several parts of the in several parts of the world world –– SSASSA

•• Institutional and Institutional and policy environmentspolicy environments

–– Significant Significant environmental environmental degradation degradation

•• GHG emissionsGHG emissions•• loss of biodiversityloss of biodiversity•• land and water land and water

degradationdegradation

Global Context for Food SecurityThe future ChallengeThe future Challenge

The demand for food will double within the next 25The demand for food will double within the next 25--50 years, primarily in developing 50 years, primarily in developing countries, countries, andand the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will changethe type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change

We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector to feed the We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector to feed the world, enhance rural world, enhance rural livelihoods and stimulate economic growth, while meeting food salivelihoods and stimulate economic growth, while meeting food safety standardsfety standards

ContextContextLess labor Less labor –– disease, rural to urban migrationdisease, rural to urban migrationLess water Less water –– competition from other sectorscompetition from other sectorsLess arable land Less arable land –– competition from energy cropscompetition from energy cropsHigh energy pricesHigh energy pricesDistorted trade policies Distorted trade policies –– OECD subsidiesOECD subsidiesLand policy conflictsLand policy conflictsLoss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystemLoss of biodiversity: genetic, species and ecosystemIncreasing levels of air and water pollutionIncreasing levels of air and water pollutionA changing climateA changing climate

Agricultural Adaptation Challenges

To produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestockTo produce, by region, the diversified array of crops, livestock, fish, , fish, forests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the nforests, biomass (for energy) and commodities needed over the next ext 50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner:50 years in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner:

address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved address water deficit problems, e.g., through improved drought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etcdrought tolerant crops, irrigation technologies, etcimprove the temperature tolerance of cropsimprove the temperature tolerance of cropscombat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseasescombat new or emerging agricultural pests or diseasesaddress soil fertility, salinzation of soils and improve nutrienaddress soil fertility, salinzation of soils and improve nutrient t cyclingcyclingreduce external and energyreduce external and energy--intensive inputsintensive inputsreduce GHG emissions while maintaining productivityreduce GHG emissions while maintaining productivityimprove the nutritional quality of foodimprove the nutritional quality of foodreduce post harvest lossesreduce post harvest lossesimprove food safetyimprove food safety

Knowledge Base to Underpin Policy Formulation and Implementation

There is an urgent need to improve the scienceThere is an urgent need to improve the science--policy policy interface through the proposed Intergovernmental Panel on interface through the proposed Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)

The IPBES would be intergovernmental, independent, The IPBES would be intergovernmental, independent, credible and support all biodiversitycredible and support all biodiversity--related conventions related conventions and the CCDand the CCD

Proposed work streams includeProposed work streams include•• Strengthen the research baseStrengthen the research base•• Assessments at the national, regional and global scaleAssessments at the national, regional and global scale•• Access to policy toolsAccess to policy tools•• Capacity buildingCapacity building

Research Challenges: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Need a more holistic understanding of the interactions Need a more holistic understanding of the interactions between different ecosystems (e.g. natural and agricultural between different ecosystems (e.g. natural and agricultural ecosystems)ecosystems)

Understand and quantify the response of biodiversity and Understand and quantify the response of biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously to multiple drivers, ecosystem services simultaneously to multiple drivers, e.g., the response to climate change in the context of all e.g., the response to climate change in the context of all other driversother drivers

Understand the relationship between changes in habitats, Understand the relationship between changes in habitats, ecological processes, ecosystem services and human wellecological processes, ecosystem services and human well--beingbeing

Quantify changes in the economic and nonQuantify changes in the economic and non--economic value economic value of ecosystem servicesof ecosystem services

Valuation of biodiversity and ecosystem servicesValuation of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Ecosystem services contribute to wellEcosystem services contribute to well--being and being and development goals through development goals through •• Provisioning (food, fibre) & sheltering (coastal buffers); Provisioning (food, fibre) & sheltering (coastal buffers); •• Regulating (climate & disease modulation); Regulating (climate & disease modulation); •• Supporting (nutrient cycling)Supporting (nutrient cycling)•• Cultural (spiritual, recreation)Cultural (spiritual, recreation)•• Preserving (maintence of diversity)Preserving (maintence of diversity)

3232

Valuation of goods and ecosystem Valuation of goods and ecosystem services services

Primary productionPrimary production

DecompositionDecomposition

Soil formationSoil formation

Nutrient cyclingNutrient cycling

Water cyclingWater cycling

WeatheringWeathering

Climate regulation Climate regulation

Pollination Pollination

Evolutionary processes Evolutionary processes

Ecological interactions Ecological interactions

Crops, livestock, fishCrops, livestock, fish

Water availabilityWater availability

TreesTrees

PeatPeat

Wild species diversityWild species diversity

Drinking waterDrinking waterFoodFood

FibreFibreEnergyEnergyNatural medicineNatural medicine

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

££££££££££££££££££££££££££

Final ecosystem Final ecosystem servicesservices GoodsGoods

Value of Value of goods...goods...

……ES ES valuevalue

Primary & intermediate Primary & intermediate processesprocesses

PeoplePeopleOther capital Other capital inputsinputs

Natural enemiesNatural enemies

DetoxificationDetoxification

Local climate Local climate

Waste breakdownWaste breakdown

Purified waterPurified water

Stabilising vegetation Stabilising vegetation

Meaningful places Meaningful places

Wild species diversity Wild species diversity

Flood controlFlood control

Equable climate Equable climate

Disease controlDisease control

Pollution controlPollution control

Erosion controlErosion control

Good healthGood health

Health and Health and WellWell--beingbeing

Priorities for Action• Make the case economic and development case for biodiversity and ecosystems

to:• Ministers of Finance, Development, Agriculture/Forestry, Energy, Water• The Private sector • The public

Joint UNFCCC- CBD work programs and protocols• Demonstrate that the conservation and restoration of ecosystems are a

valuable approach in mitigating and adapting to climate change • Utilize climate change funding opportunities

Improve the science-policy interface, nationally and internationally• National Ecosystem Assessment• IPBES

In Conclusion The world is long on rhetoric – short on action

Poverty alleviation – over 1 billion people living on less $1 per dayFood security – over 1 billion people go to bed hungry every nightAccess to clean water and modern energy – nearly 2 billion people without access to clean water or modern energyClimate change – atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increasing rapidly - no legally binding targets agreed in CopenhagenBiodiversity – being lost at an unprecedented rate

We need to integrate climate change and biodiversity issues and place them both in the context of sustainable development – food, water, energy and human security

We need to embrace the concept of ecosystem-based adaptation

We must address economic, environmental, and social issues simultaneously

Biodiversity loss has not been sold as a critical issue to the public, most governments, and economists

We need to stop talking and start acting