Climate change adaptation:

Land-based primary industry

Robyn Dynes, Jeremy Bryant, Paul Newton, Val Snow, Mark Lieffering (AgRresearch)

Hamish Brown, Derek Wilson (Plant & Food)

Tim Payn & Peter Beets (Scion)

Land-based industries

• Export earnings• $25b

• Employment• 156 000 people in Ag, forestry & Fishing

• 75 000 in food & beverage manufacture ?

• food exports to world• NZ feeds 17 million people

[Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis. http://www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/labour-market-statistics-2008.htmFood export: AgResearch analysis from: MAF SONZAF (2008), ibid year to 31 March 2008

Land-based primary industry = $25b

[Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis)

Our competitive advantage

• Temperate growing conditions

• relatively free of pests and diseases

• efficient production systems

• flexible and innovative producers

• farmers are consistently adapting• Adverse weather events

• Commodity prices

• Labour shortage

1990

2001

2008

Planted Forests – climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation

productivity

Impacts:Productivity, weeds, pests and diseases, fire, wind

Mitigation:Carbon ForestsEnergy ForestsLower GHG footprint

Adaptation:Breeding strategiesSiting and silvicultureNew technologies

Focus on fungal diseases

Cyclaneusma and Dothistroma• Needle cast fungi• Prefers warm humid conditions• Lower needle mass = slower growth• Sites with Cyclaneusma average 20%

below maximum productivity• Dothi can be treated (copper

oxychloride) – Up to 200,000ha sprayed

annually• No treatment for Cyclaneusma

Adaptation responses• Spraying• Breed tolerant genotypes• Plant different species• Move the forests

Crown Health and Growth

020406080

100

0 20 40 60 80

Defoliation (%)

Gro

wth

(%

)

Possible impact of scenarios

Scenarios suggest different impacts on the forestsRegional differences are apparent

North Island 2040

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Low 2040 High 2040

South Island 2040

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Low 2040 High 2040

All Forests 2040

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Low 2040 High 2040

Adaptation responses for fungal diseases

Breed resistant genotypes• Likely only to offset 25% of fungal impact• Slow process

Change species• Other species do not get infected• Only good if productivity as high as for current species

Move the forests• Focus on warmer sites where rainfall remains @ today's levels• Land price and infrastructure issues

More chemicals• Only works for dothistroma• Added costs, lower profitability

Adaptation Strategies for Planted Forests

• Improved understanding of climate effects on forest processes• In depth scenario analysis to drive development of adaptation strategies• National approach to development of adaptation strategies• A portfolio of approaches will be needed and will include:

• New genotypes, new forest systems, establishment of forests on different sites

Broad acre cropping – the arable sector

• Grain• Wheat, Barley, Oats, Maize, Peas

• Small seeds• Grass, Clover, Vegetable, Forage

• Vegetable • Potato, Sweet corn, Onions, Squash, Brassica

• Forages• Cereal, Annual ryegrass, Brassica, Maize

• Pastoral Phase• Grass/clover pastures

Climate change – the impact on cropping

Increased production potential• Doubling CO2 will increase growth 30%

Decreased duration• Crops develop faster in higher temperature

Crop growing areas shift

Increased nutrient demand• More N, P, K and S needed to exploit increased production

potential

Potential production (fully irrigated)

1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr

Bio

mas

s (t

/ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Current+0.7 oC, CO2 = 450 ppm+1.1 oC, CO2 = 550 ppm+0.9 oC, CO2 = 500 ppm+2.6 oC, CO2 = 700 ppm

High carbon

Rapidly decarbonising

Current

Water !!!

East coast• Hotter, windier, less rain, more variability

• Increased water demand in irrigated crops

• Decreased yield in dryland crops

• Greater chance of crop failure (multiple years)

West coast• More rain (on average), more variable (???)

0

5

10

15

20

0 500 1000 1500

Water use (mm)

Yie

ld (

kg/h

a)Water use and production

CO2 + ET

- Rain

- IrrigCO2

+ ET

- Rain

- Fertiliser

Adaptation

Irrigated

Increased crop demand• More efficient irrigation systems

• More efficient crop species

• Irrigation schemes

Dryland

Less rainfall• Drought avoidance techniques

• More resilient crops

• Financial buffers

Ensure nutrient supply

Exploit higher yield potential• Longer duration crops

• Opportunities for multiple crops per year

• Wider variety of suitable crops

in areas getting dryer with adequate water

Fruit Crop Impacts & Adaptations

• Poor flowering from inadequate winter chilling• New varieties with lower chill requirements

• Increased vegetative vigour• Pruning strategies, dwarfing root stock, chemical flowering

• Fruit damage from extreme events (eg hail storms, sunburn)

• Longer growing season giving higher quality and yield• Southward movement of production

Pastoral sector adaptation – lambs tailed/marked per ewe put to ram

[Source: sheep numbers and lamb numbers spreadsheets at http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/pastoral/livestock-numbers/, AgResearch analysis. Years are to 30 June]

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Slope: 0.77% pa

Slope: 0.09% pa

Adaptive strategies:ograzing systemsopasture quality oNitrogen oultrasonic pregnancy scanningoHogget mating.oImproved ewe prolificacy.

(Photo: AgResearch)

Pastoral farming – case study

Dairy Farm

High/low carbon vs case study

Dairy Farm

• Temperature oC Rainfall change (%)

2030 2080 2030 2080

Low carbon

0.5 1.0 +6% w +8%w

Our scenario

.7 2.1 +10 +22

High carbon

.75 2.5 +4%w +14%w

Manawatu dairy farms

Clay & sandy soils

2030 2080

Palmerston North

Manawatu River

Coastline

Sandy soils

Clay soils

15 km

Tararua Ranges

Soil map of part of the Manawatu

Source: http://gisportal.landcareresearch.co.nz

Pasture production - increases in Manawatu

EcoMod

Annual productionTonnes dry matter

2000 10.72030 12.02080 12.4

2000 9.42030 10.62080 11.5

• change pasture composition• invasion C4 grasses

Pasture quality declines

Pastoral farming – case study

Dairy Farm

•Manawatu•128 hectares• calve mid to late July• 260 days in milk• 340 kg milksolids/cow

• Conservation of hay and silage• buy-in maize silage• no nitrogen fertiliser

Cows produce less milk

• despite growing more grass

• Less energy = less milk

Production and profitability decline

Soil Type Clay Sand

Year Yr 2030 Yr 2080 Yr 2030 Yr 2080

Milk solids (kg/ha) -17 -64 -11 -53

Milk solids (kg/cow) -9 -35 -7 -33

Profitability ($/ha) -90 -337 -58 -275

Adaptation- the opportunities• more grass• lower quality= cows must be allowed to eat more

= high risk further decline quality

Target = matching pasture cover

Adaptation- the opportunities

Adaptation

Adaptation captures the benefits-more milk

• Earlier calving date = more milk in July/Aug

• Higher stocking rates = more milk overall

• change with time

Adaptation strategies

Increase in cow number (%)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

5

10

15

Increase in days-in-milk (days)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

5

10

15

20

Increase in pasture intake (kg DM /ha /yr)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

1

2

Adaptation – the bottom line

More cows

Cows eat more

Cows milk for longer

Increase in milk solids per cow (kg MS /cow /yr)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

20

40

Increase in milk solids per ha (kg MS /ha /yr)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

50

100

150

Increase in profitability ($ /ha /yr)

Clay 2030 Clay 2080 Sand 2030 Sand 2080

0

200

400

600

Adaptation – Land-based industries

• unknown: • weeds, pests, diseases• systems complexity• unintended consequences• community & regulator impacts

• Adverse events –high cost to business & community• storms• flooding• fire

Adaptation: Land-based industries

• adaptation = incremental change = business as usual

• enterprise resilience will depend on manager responses• Perceived risk

• Tools and strategies to respond

• tools, technology and knowledge available in many areas• More tools required

• Higher technical skills required for success

• adopting these tools within complex farming systems farming within multiple pressures is the real challenge.

• unintended consequences• GHG production

• Impact of regulation

• Community expectations

• Current strategies will only in-part meet tomorrows issues

Thank you

Acknowledgements

Barbara Hock, Lucy Manning – Geospatial analysis

Lindsay Bulman – background information on fungal diseases

FRST for support through the ‘Mitigation of Climate Change and the Role of Forests’ Programme CO4X04706