CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT: THE FUTURE IS NOT SO FAR-OFF

Jim Lee, American UniversityInnovations in Student Leadership Conference, Georgetown, February 2010

LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM PERSPECTIVESForecasts and Scenarios of

Climate Change and Conflict over the next 100 years

Forecasts and Scenarios of Climate Change and Conflict over the next 20 years

RE-THINK THE WORLD: IPCC REGIONS

TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100

POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (USING SIPRI)

FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (USING DOD)

HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars

War of ContractionLivelihood conflict

Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries

Cold WarsWar of Expansion

Militarized conflictNew Conflict

Developed Countries

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: HOT (OLD) AND COLD (NEW) TENSION BELTS

FOUR SHORT TERM THREATS

1. Moving Borders2. Cloud Seeding3. Polar Passages4. African Livelihood and Food Security

1. MOVING MOUNTAIN BORDERS

2. CLOUD SEEDING AROUND THE WORLD (NCAR)

3. POLAR PASSAGES (U. TEXAS)

4A. AFRICA GROWING SEASONS (2050)

4B. POPULATION DENSITIES IN AFRICA

IN SUM…1. Climate change will work with

other social factors to create conflict.

2. Conflict will have it’s own impetus that climate change will accelerate.

3. Forecasting is a politically-influenced process, but there are some clear typologies of behavior.

4. There are on-going, impending , and possible conflicts. These new confluences have already begun.

CONTACT INFORMATION jlee@american.edu James R. Lee, “Climate Change and

Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars” (Routledge, 2009)

Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE) in Mandala projectshttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/index.html

Hot and Cold War Projecthttp://www1.american.edu/ted/ICE/climatechange/hotcoldwar.html