climate change and economic growth
TRANSCRIPT
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ECONOMIC GROWTHArttu, Atte, Ekaterina, Régis
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ECONOMIC GROWTH
Increase in a country's productive capacity, measured by comparing annual gross domestic product (GDP).
Main causes of economic growth:
● Increase in capital stock● Technology advances● Quality of life
improvements
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https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg8
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The Stern Report, executive summary
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http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/10/25/an-economic-theory-of-limited-oil-supply/comment-page-2/
ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES
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More consumption● More used resources● More pollution● Direct effect on ecological systems
Current economic growth does not take costs of environment into account
● Actual growth would be less● Redefining Progress: Genuine Progress Indicator GPI
ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE
EXPENSE OF THE CLIMATE
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● Population growth vs. living standards● We want more● Debt
The U.S. from 1970 – today:
● GDP per capita: +70%● GPI: +13%
WHY DO WE NEED
ECONOMIC GROWTH?
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Is economic growth
SUSTAINABLE?
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A research published in 1972
by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III (MIT)
for the think tank Club of Rome
with computer simulation program World3
about the consequences of exponential economic and population growth with finite resource supplies
LIMITS TO
GROWTH
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World3 model based on System Dynamics
= the method for analysis of the dynamic behavior
of interconnected complex systems
● various set of parameters (either totals or averages output per capita)
● feedbacks (+) and (-)● delays in the signals and respond● sub-systems● non-linear relations● variables:
○ global population○ crude birth & death rates○ services, food & industrial output
per capita○ non-renewable resources○ pollution (all kind of)
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
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in doubling the resources but keeping same usage rate doesn’t double the resource life but just extend it insignificantly (in this scenario just about on average 130 years)
DOUBLE KNOWN
AVAILABILITY
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TECHNOLOGY & LIMITS
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“...Our attempts to use even the most optimistic estimates of the benefits of technology in the model did not prevent the ultimate decline of population and industry, and in fact did not in any case postpone the collapse beyond the year 2100.”
“We have shown that in the world model the application of technology to apparent problems of resource depletion or pollution or food shortage has
no impact on the essential problem, which is exponential growth in a finite and
complex system...
Limits to Growth 1972
NO “SILVER BULLET”
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WE ARE HERE TODAY
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WORLD3 ON
CO2 CONCENTRATION
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Is the answer
DECOUPLING?
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This means CO2 emissions fade out and other energy sources take over
THE CURRENT PLAN
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Global GHG abatement curve beyond business-as-usual - 2030
TECHNOLOGY
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BEHAVIOR
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● Taxation (carbon tax)● Legislation● Subsidies● Direct investment● Education● Internal and international deals● International action
GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT TO
LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS,BEHAVIOR AND INNOVATION
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NO,
WAIT
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G8 and OECD material consumption versus GDP
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Relative changes in total resource use (MF and DMC) and GDP-PPP-2005 between 1990 and 2008http://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271.full
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PATHWAYS TO
SUSTAINABILITY
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DEFINE
PROSPERITY!
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https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/spirit-level
REDEFINING PROSPERITY 1:
GROWTH AT THE BOTTOM
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REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:
VALUES● materialistic values
are as damaging to the environment as to people
● status competition creates “race to the bottom”
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REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:
VALUES ● Resilient Communities● Cooperatives● Grassroots Finance● City Policies● Community Currencies● Community Renewable Energy● Rethinking Home● Work in the New Economy
http://www.theselc.org/programs
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REDEFINING PROSPERITY 3:
RELATIVEWEALTH
https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk
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THE ENDIS NEAR
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KIITOS