Climate Change and Food Securityin Southern Africa

Adopting a multi-level research approach

John Ingram

GECAFS Executive Officer

Natural Environment Research Council

HADCM3 climate model projections of changes in a) temperature and b) precipitation for 2050 relative to mean conditions over the 1961 to 1990

period, under the IPCC SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario.

a) b)

Projected climate changein southern Africa

MEA SAfMA Report, 2004

Slightly warmer

Much warmer

Drier

Wetter

Issues• Increasing climate variability

& ENSO• Veld degradation and

biodiversity loss• Reduced water availability

Key Policy Goals• Enhanced rural infrastructure &

market access• Better disaster response &

“safety nets”• Strong agricultural development

to help achieve food security

Southern Africa

Example Stakeholders

National ag & env ministriesRegional universities

Regional IGOs & NGOs (SADC, NEPAD, FANRPAN)International agencies (e.g. WFP, DfID, USAID, FEWSNet)

Key southern African climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities

and development goals

Q1: How will changes in climate (and in other environmental parameters) affect the vulnerability of food systems in different parts of the region?

Q2: How can food systems be adapted using technical and policy options to cope and improve food security?

Q3: How will various adaptation options feedback on environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

GECAFS-Southern Africa (SAF) Science PlanThree Overarching Questions

Local-level questions, researched in case-studies (e.g. districts) at the sub-regional level.

Regional-level questions, to address issues relating to the region as a whole (top-down view of the region).

Cross-level questions, which integrate output from case studies up to the regional level (bottom-up view of the region).

Each Question addressed atthree “levels”

Local-level

• Which aspects of local food systems (activities and outcomes) are currently most vulnerable to environmental stress and which stresses are most threatening?

Regional-level

• Which aspects of GEC as manifesting at the regional-level are most important in relation to long-term development and food aid?

Cross-level

• What are the trends in food availability, access and utilisation across the region?

Example Questions forFood System Vulnerability (Q1)

Local-level

• What local-level technical, policy and institutional adaptation strategies will reduce food system vulnerability?

Regional-level

• Which aspects of regional cooperation need to be improved (e.g. trade, infrastructure, strategic reserves, transboundary water management) to help reduce vulnerabilities of food systems?

Cross-level

• How will interactions among regional-level and local-level food system adaptation strategies affect conditions and decision-making at local level?

Example Questions forFood System Adaptation (Q2)

Local-level

• How would different adaptation strategies change local biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling and national greenhouse gas budgets?

Regional-level

• How would improved regional cooperation aimed at reducing vulnerabilities of food systems affect international trade?

Cross-level

• How would different adaptation strategies across the region help achieve SADC’s food security goal?

Example Questions forFeedbacks (Q3)

Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)

Intra-regional policy networking

Host organisation

International Council for Science-Regional Office for Africa (ICSU-ROA)

Intra-regional science networking

Inter-regional science networking

GECAFS-SAFStrategic Collaborations

Science Agencies

Development Agencies

Policy Makers

Resource Managers

Natural Science

Social Science

e.g.NRF,

ICSU-Africa

improved GEC/food systems science

e.g.CARE, FAO,DFID/IDRC

improved livelihoods & reduced vulnerability

e.g.farmers, range

conservation NGOs

improved food security & nat resource mgmt

e.g.SADC, national ag & env ministries

improved food security policies

e.g.• climate variability• land degradation• biodiversity loss

e.g.• vulnerability

• resource tenure• social capital

How can Southern African food systemsbe adapted to reduce their vulnerability to GEC?

GECAFS ConceptualResearch Plan

GECAFS Southern Africa Science Plan / FANRPAN ICSU-ROA /

ESSP

1. ~ 5 Case Studies across the region, each addressing the food systems questions relating to GEC vulnerability and impacts, adaptation options and feedbacks.

2. Regional Scientific Networking, to link case study research with other relevant research in the region and internationally.

3. Science-Policy Interface, linking national researchers with policymakers, the private sector, civil society and representatives of regional food security programmes.

GECAFS-SAF5-year implementation

Improved understanding of how GEC will additionally affect food security across the region and among different socioeconomic groups

Assessments of how adaptation strategies designed to cope with GEC and changing demands for food will affect the environment, societies and economies

Enhanced regional research capacity in food security and environmental issues

Strengthened regional policy formulation capacity for food security and environmental governance

Policy recommendations for adaptation options

Principal GECAFS-SAF outputs