climate change and food systems: global modeling to inform decision making
TRANSCRIPT
Climate change and food systems:
Global modeling to inform
decision making
Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI Session: Informing the policymaking landscape: From research to action in the fight
against climate change and hunger
Marrakech, Morocco
November 16, 2016
All models are wrong,but some are useful
-- George Box and Norman Draper (1987)
Outline
What makes models useful?
Transparency, credibility, flexibility
Engagement with stakeholders and decision makers
Modeling approach – IMPACT
Climate change impacts on agriculture and food
Implications for policy
IFPRI’s IMPACT system of modelsExploring alternative climate and investment futures
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Source: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. International Food Policy Research Institute: Washington, DC..
• Linked climate, water, crop and economic
models
• Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts
Climate change impacts in 2050The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2)
Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Climate change impacts in 2050Average of 5 global economic models for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds & sugar
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Yields Area Production Prices Trade
Perc
ent
change in 2
050
SSP1-RCP4.5 SSP2-RCP6.0 SSP3-RCP8.5
Source: Wiebe et al., Environmental Research Letters (2015)
Hunger in 2030by climate and investment scenario
(bars showing numbers on the left axis, dots showing shares on the right axis)
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Note: 2030-NoCC assumes a constant 2005 climate; 2030-CC reflects climate change using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model, and 2030-COMP assumes climate change plus increased investment in developing country agriculture.Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3, October 2016 (preliminary results from work in progress).
Health impacts of GHG taxes on food in 2020
Source: Springmann, Mason-D’Croz, Robinson, et al., Nature Climate Change (2016)
Key messages
• Results– Climate change increases pressure on natural resources and slows
progress in reducing hunger, especially in Africa South of the Sahara
– Also affects diet and health in all regions
– A mix of targeted policies and investments – recognizing tradeoffs –
will be needed to address impacts at national and landscape scales
• Making results useful– Stakeholders for global modeling include international donors and
research community
– Reaching national and sub-national decision makers requires links to
analysis and engagement at smaller scales
– Need to build these links and engagement into research planning and
policy processes
