Climate change and health Effects

SpeakersDr Amol NathDr Naveen Phuyal

Climate change and health Effects

Moderator SpeakersSurg. Capt. Dinesh Sharma Dr Amol Capt. Naveen

Scheme of Presentation

Global warming – Overview

Causes of Global warming

Health Effects of Global warming

Adaptation & Mitigation Activities

The Cassandra EffectOne who foresees, on available evidence, a likely disaster; yet judges that this can’t be prevented – and, that anyway, others won’t believe the forecast.

Drought turns Beijing orange

Independent 22 March 2010

Drought in Kenya killed Thousands of Cattles

Climate Change- Examples

1914 2004

Portage Glacier, Alaska

Climate Change- Examples

June 2002 Dec 2003

Colorado River, Arizona

Some Natural Disasters In Recent Years In India And Effects

• India, like other countries in the world, have had natural disasters but its recurrence has enhanced in the new millennium.

Tsunami (December 2004)– affected Andaman & Nicobar, Pondicherry, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh loss of Agri crops, cattle wealth, housing and livelihood.

Mumbai Floods (26th July 2005) –city got paralyzed and floods in Maharashtra

Some Natural Disasters In Recent Years In India And Effects

Surat Flood (2006) – Estimated loss of Rs.22,000 crore. City’s infrastructure affected, individual losses and crops like sugarcane (Rs4,000 crore) were lost.

Heavy rains in 2007 in Rajasthan with flooding and consequent breakout of diseases, loss of crops and cattle wealth.

Bihar (2008) – Koshi river overflow caused flooding in large area of Bihar & UP

Current drought in Maharashtra state

What is Global Warming?

Global Warming

‘The rise in the surface air temperature, referred to as the global temperature, brought about by the enhanced greenhouse effect, which is induced by emissions of greenhouse gases into the air.’

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the 20th century saw an increase in global average surface temperature of approximately 0.7 °C

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

This Is A Big Problem….

What’s the difference between “global warming” and “climate change”?

DifferenceGLOBAL WARMING is the increase of the

Earth’s average surface temperature due to a build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

CLIMATE CHANGE is a broader term

that refers to long-term changes in climate, including average temperature and precipitation.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Why Global Warming is happening?

Greenhouse Effect: The Fundamentals

The Sun’s energy passes through the car’s windshield.

This energy (heat) is trapped inside the car and cannot pass back through the windshield, causing the inside of the car to warm up.

Greenhouse Effect: The Fundamentals

Greenhouse Gases

Nitrous oxide

Water vapour Carbon dioxide

MethaneSulfur hexafluoride

Selected Greenhouse Gases

Water vapour:

•Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas, but human activity doesn’t have much direct impact on its amount in the atmosphere.

•Increased evapouration leads to a greater concentration of water vapour in the lower atmosphere capable of absorbing long-wave radiation and emitting it downward

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Selected Greenhouse Gases• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Anthropogenic increase: 37% Average atmospheric residence time: 500 years

• Methane (CH4) Anthropogenic increase: 145% Average atmospheric residence time: 7-10 years

• Nitrous oxide (N2O) Anthropogenic increase: 15% Average atmospheric residence time: 140-190 years

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Sources of Greenhouse Gases

Burning carbon-containing fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide

C + O2 = CO2

CO2 Significant greenhouse pollutant

Humans have increased carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere by more than 37% since the Industrial Revolution. - NOAA 2008

Currently the level of carbon dioxide in atmosphere is highest (385 ppm) in last 8,00,000 years. - Prof. Thomas Blunier, Univ. of Copenhagen; Monaco Declaration 2008.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Methane from rice paddies, animal ranching, garbage in landfills and mining operations

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Nitrous oxide from fertilizers and other chemicals

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Global Contributors to Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions are combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas

More than 60% of the annual global industrial carbon dioxide emissions come from industrialized countries, accounting for 20% of the world’s populationU.S. per capita emissions of carbon are over 20 times higher

than India, 12 times higher than Brazil, and 7 times higher than China

These per capita rates expected to change significantly as China, India, and other countries continue to develop economically

Global carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase by at least 50% over the next 25 years under current conditions

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

IPCC 2007: Human Impact is Evident

Carbon dioxide concentration over the past 1000 years

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Global Population Estimates

• A vicious circle for our times More people use more energy; More energy means more emissions; More people want affluence; More affluence means more gadgets; More gadgets need yet more energy; Which produces yet more emissions

The consequences

• The world is getting hotter (very slowly 0.1°C per decade)

• Sea levels are rising (very slowly 3mm/yr)

• Snow cover is decreasing

Source-IPCC, WG1, Figure SPM.3, 2007

The last 10 years are all in the top 15 warmest years on record

World Metrological Organization, Report on Climate Change,2010

Global Warming - Effects

Geographical effects

Climate change

Wildlife

Humans

Ice cover 23% smaller than previous minimum; 39% smaller than average

Ice 53% thinner in region of North Pole between 2001 and 2007 (NOAA Report Card 2008)

In September 2007, an area the size of Florida (69,000 square miles) melted (NSIDC 2007)

Melting Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice coverage is decreasing..

Less sea ice means less reflection of the sun’s energy; More exposure of dark coloured ocean means more absorption of the sun’s heat; These combined effects warm the Arctic, helping to melt more sea ice – another vicious circle

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2006)

“Society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.”( Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research)

20002040

Melting Sea Ice

•More than half of the world's population now lives within 60km of the sea.

•Most vulnerable regions: Nile delta in Egypt, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, many small islands, such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands

Sea-level Rise Projections :

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

Sea-level Rise Projections

• Ganges River delta and 1m sea level rise in Bangladesh-13 million will be displaced and 16% of rice production will be lost.

• Similar 1 m sea level rise in China will displace 72 million people.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report(AR4),2007

The day is not far……..

As the temperature of oceans rise, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes.

Warmer waters and more hurricanes

Increased probability and intensity of droughts and heat waves

Health effects of changing climates

Health inequalities between rich and poor

• Climate change will have greatest effect on those who have the least access to world’s resources and who have contributed least to its cause.

The rich world:more expensive, inconvenient, uncomfortable, disrupted and colorless,more unpleasant and unpredictable.

Poor will die

Why suffering more for the poor?

The health systems are :

• Disorganized• Inefficient• Under-resourced

“The toxic combination of bad policies, economics, and politics – people do not enjoy the good health that is biologically possible.

Is fossil fuel to be blamed?

Fossil fuel has contributed to development and huge improvement in global health and development in the past 100 yrs.

Developed world and richer part of developing world -doubled their longetivity, reduced poverty, increased education and enhanced their security.

Luxury emissions vs survival emissions

Effect of climate change on health• Changing pattern of the

disease

• Water and food insecurity

• Vulnerable shelter and human settlements

• Extreme climatic events

• Population growth and migration

• The heat waves

• Heat related stress and heat stroke

• Heat island effect

• Vector borne diseases and Rodent borne diseases

• Cancers

• Vectors access areas previously free from diseases

Changing patterns of disease

Changing patterns of disease

SchistosomiasisFascioliasisAlveolar echinococcosis leishmaniasisLyme borreliosisTick-borne encephalitisHantavirus infections

Dilution effect in Lyme, West Nile and hantavirus diseases

Changing patterns of disease

• Cholera outbreaks- increased planktons growth

• Floods also promote outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis

• Increased rainfall and flooding -leptospirosis outbreak.

Food insecurity• Chronic and acute child malnutrition, low birth

weights, and suboptimal breastfeeding.

• Climate change will compound existing food insecurity.

• Hunger, illness, and death due to under nutrition are set to worsen as climate change affects crops, forestry, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture, and water systems.

• Rising food prices.

Water and sanitation

• Lack of access to clean water and sanitation

• Biological or chemical contamination• Increased incidence of water-borne

and vector-borne diseases• Changing rainfall and temperature• More intense droughts and floods• Water scarcity might result in greater

conflict between and within countries and communities

Shelter and human settlements

• Need for secure emergency shelter for those displaced or affected

• Human settlements prepared for the future climate-changed environment

• Disease and injury

Shelter and human settlements

• Vulnerability for the poorest and most powerless- no opportunities to adapt

• Energy security

• Concern to many governments -potential source of international tension and conflict

Extreme events

• Major disasters -directly linked.

• Associated health problems( Indirect) loss or contamination of potable water

leading to disease, destruction of crops resulting in food shortages, poor nutrition, and malnutrition.

Extreme events

• In the long term-after a disaster- depression and anxiety

• Extreme meteorological phenomena, including heat waves and cold waves, floods, droughts, and windstorms

• Most meteorological extreme events is expected to continue to rise

• Hot conditions, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent

Population and migration

Population growth - shelter, food, and water scarcity.

Population growth also puts additional stress on already weak health systems.

Exacerbates vulnerability to the adverse health effects of climate change.

• Population growth -increase pressure and competition for scarce resources

• Rising sea levels, which result from oceanic thermal expansion and ice-cap melting, will be a major contributing factor to population displacement.

• Climate change might be one of many factors influencing violence, but where conflict occurs between migrant and host populations, it is a result of national identity clashes rather than of migration.

Health effects of adaptation and mitigation activities

Health effects of adaptation activities

• Activities carried out in order to adapt to climate change can in some cases lead to additional health risks.

1. Construction of dams for water storage2. Irrigation of land3. Wastewater for agricultural irrigation

• Need for an integrated risk assessment during the development of new policies at national level or local level

However, it is likely that many such practices will take placeinformally in rural or peri-urban settlements so that national regulations may not be as effective.

Co-benefits of mitigation activities

• Reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases• Transport policies• Better insulation of houses in cold climates

• Climate change does not create new health hazards.

• It may act as a multiplier of existing health problems or change the location of health concerns.

• To add the climate dimension into existing international or community-based programs and actions.

• Cross-sectoral approaches are needed.

Further research is needed on links between climate and health and projected effects,as well as the most effective adaptation measures

What to do?

• Should we do the same things ?? OR• Do things differently??

Short term climate variability – Better Focus Longer term- Planning for how to ensure that systems remain resilient and adaptable to changing risks.

Doing more of the same

• Strengthen health systems -human resources.

• Improve access to water and sanitation.

• Improve knowledge about hygiene.

• Improve surveillance systems.

Doing more of the same

• Improve laboratory facilities and standardize diagnosis and reporting.

• Increase international collaborations on surveillance.

• Make better use of the few existing early warning systems for particular diseases.

Doing things differently• Make better use of early warning information

• Public health decision-making and preparedness

• Focus surveillance efforts on high risk areas

• Invest in win-win solutions

• Take health risks into account when planning adaptation measures

Doing things differently

• Ensure the health sector is at the table when planning

• Taking into account future sea level rise and flood-plains when planning infrastructure

• Take into account changing temperatures during building design

Doing things differently• When planning cities, take into

account

The urban heat island effect Ensure availability of shaded

spaces and green areas Ensure that water and sanitation

infrastructure is resilient to extremes of precipitation

Facilitate modes of transport that contribute to public health and reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• There is a need to document, assess and disseminate experiences of adaptation as countries and regions undertake and plan such strategies.

WHAT CAN WE DO?

REDUCE USE

Plastic bags and cups do not decompose so harmful to environment

Paper bags and cups are eco friendly and easily decomposable

Reduce the usage of cars for short distances

Walk /use cycles for short distances

Turn to compact florescent light which saves more than 80% of energy

Avoid turning up the air conditioner. Instead dress lightly or use a fan.

Keep rooms cool by closing the blinds, shades, or curtains.

Turn off the lights when you leave.

Conserve electricity! DO NOT leave appliances on standby

REUSE

Paper can be reused for various purposesCovers and boxes which comes with products can be used for decorative purposesPlastic bags can be used for carrying small things

RECYCLE & REUSEWhat Can Be Recycled?

Paper Items Paper Cardboard Envelopes Phone Books Post-it Notes

Magazine

Bottles and Cans Cans Plastic Bottles Glass Bottles Aluminum Foil Yogurt and Cottage

Cheese containers

Use alternate energy courses

NuclearWindGeothermalHydroelectricSolar

Advantages of 3R’s

Reduction of wastages Less pollution

Efficient use of

resources

Increase in energy

Thank You