climate change and health in ireland: a vulnerability assessment trinity international development...
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Climate change and health in Ireland: a vulnerability
assessment
Trinity International Development Initiative
Dr. Elizabeth Cullen10th November 2011
‘‘Every doctor should know what to Every doctor should know what to expect of the weather’expect of the weather’
Hippocrates 400 B.CHippocrates 400 B.C
Summary of presentationSummary of presentation
• Climate change Climate change
• Impacts on healthImpacts on health
• ConclusionsConclusions
Source: Hadley Centre 2005
Source: Hadley Centre 2005
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y (1
961-
1990
) oC
Ireland_anomaly 10 year moving average(global) 10 year moving average(Ireland)
Climate modelClimate model
• A climate model is a numerical A climate model is a numerical representation of the climate system representation of the climate system and combines known laws of physics and combines known laws of physics with factors such as climatic with factors such as climatic parameters and atmospheric factors to parameters and atmospheric factors to compute the evolving state of the compute the evolving state of the climate in response to the changing climate in response to the changing composition of the atmosphere (Ebi composition of the atmosphere (Ebi 2004)2004)
Impacts of climate change Impacts of climate change on health in Irelandon health in Ireland
• Temperature related mortalityTemperature related mortality
• Food-borne diseaseFood-borne disease
• Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease
• Vector-borne diseasesVector-borne diseases
• Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, Other indirect effects, e.g. allergies, skin cancerskin cancer
201371-7
Mean temperature
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Mor
tali
ty r
ate
per
100
,000
• Reductions in mortality, particularly Reductions in mortality, particularly
from cardiovascular and respiratory from cardiovascular and respiratory
mortality, and principally in the over mortality, and principally in the over
75 age group75 age group
Future changes in Future changes in temperature related temperature related
mortalitymortality
2010 - 39 2040 - 69 2070 - 99
% Change inmortality
-1.0(-0.4 - 2.3)
-2.1(-1.2 - 3.5)
-4.3(-2.1 - 6.9)
31302928272625242322212019181716151413121110987654321
Days
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
Mor
tali
ty r
ate
per
10,
000
and
tem
per
atu
re i
n d
egre
es C
elsi
us
Mortality rateTemperature
Foodborne diseaseFoodborne disease
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0 5 10 15 20
Mean temperature
Observed
Quadratic
Incidence of salmonella per week per 100,000
0
3
6
9
12
15
2 5 8 10 12 15 18
Mean temperature
Observed
Linear
Cases
20
30
40
50
60
0 5 10 15 20 25
Mean temperature
Observed
Cubic
Cases of campylobacter
Foodborne diseaseFoodborne disease
For every 1 degree rise in mean For every 1 degree rise in mean temperature:temperature:
• Salmonella 8% rise Salmonella 8% rise
• Campylobacter 6% riseCampylobacter 6% rise
• VTEC 6% riseVTEC 6% rise
Water-borne diseaseWater-borne disease
“”Water quality is only of importance to you
if you use a tap or a toilet”
Boyden, 2006
Climate change and rainfall Climate change and rainfall in Irelandin Ireland• WiWide-spread reduction in rain in East and de-spread reduction in rain in East and
South-East South-East
• Increase in winter rain in the WestIncrease in winter rain in the West
• Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger Seasonal flooding may occur over a larger area and persist for longer periods of time. area and persist for longer periods of time.
Water quality and healthWater quality and health: a multi-factorial issue: a multi-factorial issue
Warmer temperatures - growth of Warmer temperatures - growth of micro-micro-organismsorganisms
Increased run-off and floodingIncreased run-off and flooding
VTEC and cryptosporidiosisVTEC and cryptosporidiosis
Water treatment plants need urgent attentionWater treatment plants need urgent attention
FloodingFlooding
No warningNo warningNight timeNight timeColdCold
• Immediate Immediate • Mortality, trauma, pollutionMortality, trauma, pollution• DelayedDelayed Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections,Leptospirosis ,earache, skin infections, dampness, asthmadampness, asthma• PsychologicalPsychological
Reduced water suppliesReduced water supplies
Increased demand for waterIncreased demand for water
Population increases in the EastPopulation increases in the East
Warmer temperaturesWarmer temperatures
Increased use Increased use of of surface watersurface water
Decreased efficDecreased efficieniency of treatment plantscy of treatment plants
EU Water FrameworkEU Water Framework Directive Directive
• To achieve ‘good status’ for all water To achieve ‘good status’ for all water bodies by 2015bodies by 2015
• New Drinking Water Regulations – New Drinking Water Regulations – will result in improved drinking water will result in improved drinking water qualityquality
‘‘Safe water cannot be taken for Safe water cannot be taken for granted’.granted’. (Wall 2001) (Wall 2001)
Other indirect effectsOther indirect effects
Malaria and Lyme diseaseMalaria and Lyme disease
Skin cancerSkin cancer
AllergiesAllergies
Summary of findings
•Less temperature related mortalityLess temperature related mortality• Increase in food-borne diseaseIncrease in food-borne disease• Increase in water-borne diseaseIncrease in water-borne disease•Change in vector-borne diseasesChange in vector-borne diseases• Increase in skin cancerIncrease in skin cancer•Change in timing and location of Change in timing and location of
allergic diseasesallergic diseases
RecommendationsRecommendations
• Heat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ registerHeat wave plan including ‘at-risk’ register
• Food hygieneFood hygiene
• WFD and Drinking Water regulations are WFD and Drinking Water regulations are public health issuespublic health issues
• Education re exposure to sunEducation re exposure to sun
AfricaAfrica
• Increase heat stress and drought -human Increase heat stress and drought -human and animal mortalityand animal mortality
• Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and Increase in malaria in Zimbabwe and South Africa and decrease in Central AfricaSouth Africa and decrease in Central Africa
• Changes in tsetse fly distributionChanges in tsetse fly distribution
• Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - Increase in semi-arid areas of Africa - meningitis belt meningitis belt
• Increased flooding in Eastern AfricaIncreased flooding in Eastern Africa
Drought Zambia 2002 Photo 2002 Richard Lord / UMCOR
•The most important challenge is the
limited capacity for research and
adaptation in low- and middle-
income countries”• IPCC Fourth Report 2007
Conclusion Conclusion
• Imbalance between human activity Imbalance between human activity and environment diminish life and environment diminish life support systemssupport systems
• Climate is a life supporting systemClimate is a life supporting system
• We need to address the causesWe need to address the causes
“We are in the middle of a large uncontrolled experiment on the only planet we have”. Douglas Kennedy 2006
• I would like to acknowledge a debt of I would like to acknowledge a debt of gratitude to Professor John Sweeney gratitude to Professor John Sweeney and Professor Dennis Pringle, and Professor Dennis Pringle, Department of Geography, NUI Department of Geography, NUI MaynoothMaynooth
• Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection Agency
• Thank youThank you