climate change and iwmi: global analysis of kyoto protocol-cdm ar and h20
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Climate Change and IWMI:Global Analysis ofKyoto Protocol -CDM AR and H20Robert ZomerDeborah BossioAntonio TrabuccoOliver Van StraatenTRANSCRIPT
Climate Change and IWMI:
Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol - CDM AR and H20
Robert ZomerDeborah Bossio
Antonio TrabuccoOliver Van Straaten
Aspects of Climate Change
• Local– Wetting or drying– Increased uncertainty in rainfall– Livelihoods and vulnerability– Increased extreme events
• Global– Direct climate change impacts on production, farming
systems, food security water supply, ecosystems…– International treaties affect land use and indirectly affect
water use• New partnerships
– Global change research community
Global Issue
• Various International Treaty Conventions and Agreements are currently in effect:– Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC), Biodiversity Convention,
Desertification, etc..
• “Hidden” Water Dimension (water use and supply) of Agreements not necessarily taken into account, and/or treated as ancillary issue.
Kyoto Protocol CDM-AR
• Kyoto Protocol has been ratified in 2005– Kyoto calls for mandatory reductions of emissions to 1992
levels for Annex I Parties.
– The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows for countries to trade carbon credits for investing in carbon reducing projects in Non-Annex I countries.
– One percent of all the required reductions is allowed to be satisfied by “carbon sink” projects, (CDM-AR)
• afforestation and reforestation, tree plantations, agroforestry(2008-2012)
– This potentially represents billions of dollars flowing into developing countries and development.
Global Analysis of CDM-AR impacts on water related issues
• Questions:– Where is the land suitable for these CDM-AR projects?
• What is there now (current landuse)
• What kind of land is it (elevation, slope, NPP, degradation)
• Who is there now (population density)
– How much land is actually required to meet the CDM-AR cap (1% of total CO2 reductions)?
– If those sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles
• Globally, regionally, locally
How much land is suitable and where is it?
How much land is suitable and where is it?
• Suitable land >700 Mha• 46% is in South America• 27% is in SS Africa
• More than 75% of suitable lands in Asia are classified as agricultural land use.
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Existing Landuse Type
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
SouthAmerica
SubsaharaAfrica
South Asia SouthEastAsia
East Asia
Region
Barren or Sparsely VegetatedSavannaMixed Shrubland/GrasslandCropland
How many people live on that land?
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Population Density
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1 - 5
6 - 1
011
- 25
26 -
5051
- 10
010
1 - 2
0020
1 - 3
00 3
01 -
400
401
- 500
501
- 750
751
- 100
0> 1
000
Population Density
East AsiaSouth-east AsiaSouth AsiaSub-Sahara AfricaSouth America
Almost all of the biophysically suitable land with low population density is found in Africa and South America
What is the potential of CDM AR projects to mitigate land degradation, globally?
• Only 2 - 3 % of eligible lands are required to meet the current CDM sink cap
– 1.4 Million Sq Km
• Globally CDM-AR is a ‘drop in the bucket’ to help address enormous scope of land degradation
Hydrological impacts of implementing CDM-AR projects
If suitable sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on water cycles
•Globally, regionally, locally
Tested for methods that could be easily applied at global scale, and as a support tool for feasibility studies associated with local reforestation.
A monthly A monthly ThornthwaiteThornthwaite--MatherMather soilsoil--water budget is calculated as:water budget is calculated as:
SWC is the soil water content
EPrec is the effective precipitation
AET is the Actual Evapotranspiration
R is the Excess Water or Runoff
PrSWC E ec AET R∆ = − −
Increase in Vapor Flows (AET) with CDM-AR
• Large areas exhibit significant increases in vapor flow
• Drier areas, • Semi-arid tropics, • Conversion from grasslands • Conversion from subsistence ag
•Significant variation amongst biomes and bioclimatic zones
Decrease in Runoff with CDM-AR
Low Impact - 20%Moderate Impact - 28%High Impact - 25%Severe Impact - 27%
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Decrease in Runoff (%)
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100
Decrease in Runoff (%)
East AsiaSouth-East AsiaSouth AsiaSubSahara AfricaSouth America
Global Impact: MinimalLocally and Regionally: potentially significant
Four Case Studies of Local Impact: Four Case Studies of Local Impact:
• Four Case Study Sites:– Ecuador
• Coastal Tropical – Pasture to Mixed Native Agroforestry
• Sierras– Community Forestry - Pine Plantation
– Bolivia• Amazon -
– Small Farm Agroforestry
• Sierras - Tunari National Park– Ecological Restoration
– Native Species
Local Impact:Local Impact:Water Use Change with CDMWater Use Change with CDM--AR Project:AR Project:
Precipitation: 900 mmImpact: High Impact (27%)Possible Flood Mitigation
Tunari National Park: Bolivia
ChapareChapare Case Study Case Study –– Bolivian AmazonBolivian Amazon
Community Based AgroforestryCommunity Based Agroforestry
Annual Precipitation: > 3000Annual Precipitation: > 3000
Impact Minimal with 100% AdoptionImpact Minimal with 100% Adoption
Guamote Study Site - Ecuador
Precipitation: 700 mmImpact: SevereGround Water Decrease
Conclusion
• H2O Dimension of Multilateral Treaties– Needs to be explicitly articulated
• Local Impact of CDM-AR Can Be Significant– Communities, Food Security, Ecosystem
• Model results can be applied to optimize planning and mitigate impact
• Model can be used to quantify impact of trees in the landscape under range of scenarios
Thank YouThank You……