climate change and natural resources · polar amplification of global warming 1979 2005 francis et...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change and Natural Resources
Jim Miller, Rutgers University
September 19, 2012 Rutgers University
![Page 2: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Earth System Science Greenhouse Effect Modeling Climate Change Sea Ice and the Arctic Sea Level Rise Impacts on Natural Resources
![Page 3: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What is a System?
![Page 4: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What are components of earth system?
![Page 5: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What are components of earth system?
Atmosphere Hydrosphere Geosphere Biosphere
![Page 6: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
![Page 8: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
End-of-century concentrations range from ~double to triple pre-industrial levels
Source: IPCC 2001
HIGHER
A1FI (940 ppm)
LOWER
B1 (550 ppm)
Further warming depends on our emissions choices
![Page 11: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
NASA/GISS
![Page 13: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What is a Model?
![Page 15: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Coupled Climate Model Schematic
![Page 17: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
AP Photo/Michael Kim
Heat index:
how summers
could “feel”
Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
![Page 19: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Projections of Precipitation Change
Winter Summer
![Page 20: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Arctic Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks
![Page 21: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Modeling Feedbacks – Climate Change Experiments
![Page 22: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Surface Temperature
Absorbed Solar Radiation
Albedo
Sea Ice Cover
– +
+ –
![Page 23: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
2030
2060
2090
2002
Polar Amplification of Global Warming 2005 1979
Francis et al.
![Page 26: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
)
![Page 29: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Why Is Global Sea Level Rising?
SEA LEVEL RISE
Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps
Thermal Expansion Water released by the
melting of ice on land adds to the volume of the oceans.
Source: Roger Braithwaite, Univ. of Reading
![Page 30: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Projected Rise in Global Sea Level Relative to 2005
![Page 34: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Coastal Impacts • Coastal Flooding • Shoreline Change
Dr. Norbert P. Psuty
![Page 35: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Atlantic City: Today’s 100-Year Flood Could Become a 2-Year Flood by 2100
![Page 36: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
USDA
Impacts on Agriculture • Dairy
• Crops
• Pests and Weeds
![Page 37: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Changes in Suitable Climate Conditions For Different Forest Types by Late-Century
spruce/fir: Anastasiya Maksymenko; maple: Birthe Lunau; oak: Dave White; ash: Chad Davis; loblolly: Kentucky Division of Forestry. Source: NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/). Jerry and Marcy Monkman
![Page 38: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The Changing Face of Winter
Base map credit: Intrasearch d.b.a. MapMart Source: NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
![Page 39: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources:
Floods and Droughts?
Cannonsville Reservoir, Dec. 2001
Delaware River, Sept. 2004
Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge June 2006
![Page 40: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Changes in Precipitation
USGS/David Armstrong
More water when we don’t need it.
Less water when we do.
Deleware River
Mike Aucott/NJDEP
![Page 41: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Extreme Precipitation Events More Frequent and More Extreme
Associated Press
Axe Handle Brook, NH 2006
Susquehanna River, PA 2004
Nancy Brammer
![Page 42: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Taylor Creek Blaze, Southeastern Montana, Summer 2012 Image Credit:USFWS/Gerald Vickers via InciWeb.org
![Page 43: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Climate Change and Natural Resources · Polar Amplification of Global Warming 1979 2005 Francis et al. ) Why Is Global Sea Level Rising? SEA LEVEL RISE Melting Glaciers and Ice Caps](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022081606/5e8842136f28665c8d0c7e7b/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
• Barnegat Bay, Wikipedia
Climate is Changing Now Impacts Already Being Felt Models Needed to Project Future Changes